IMHO, the total says it all for the Cubs/Cards game

iloseagain · 07-25-10, 06:12 PM

so take the over then?

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

so take the over then?

I wouldn't -- especially because I think Carp pitches a gem -- but I'm a totals mush.

I'm just saying that's my personal analysis. Under or no play.

darkenergy · 07-25-10, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

6.5? People are going to pound the piss out of that over, especially given the ESPN Sunday Night history. Don't do it, folks. Do not touch this line, unless you're going to go under. Sincerely, A Totals Expert

Can you explain what you mean by ESPN Sunday Night history?.

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

Can you explain what you mean by ESPN Sunday Night history?.

Overs have been hitting a lot.

Overs and home teams.

dynamite140 · 07-25-10, 06:20 PM

This total is really ridiculous. yes its carpenter and dempster is pretty good at home. First 2 totals went under with 12 and 11 with wind blowing out. Now the wind blowing in which makes the total low but... 6.5? I thought 7 or 7.5 would be a fair number. However, it really looks so easy to take the over. Yet, 6.5 is a really tough for an under because once 2 teams get 3 runs its over.

I just don't understand why this total can be this low. Last week with Roy Halladay and the Phillies vs the Cubs, total was 7.5 and looked like it begged for under action and went over. Now its 6.5? Taking any side is risky. Over looks like a sucker bet yet taking the under is more risky because one bad inning by one of the 2 pitchers will make this total go over 6.5 too easily.

WvGambler · 07-25-10, 06:20 PM

With Carp on the mound and only a 6.5 total, Vegas is expecting a STL win then right NO? I believe so......STL wins 4-1.

darkenergy · 07-25-10, 06:20 PM

So far this season, 15 games on Sunday night ESPN (or 16, first game on Sunday Apr 4, covers showed Spring training day. But look like Boston and NY is an official game).
So 15 game with out come being 7 OVER, 8 UNDER (or 8-8 if you count the fist game on 4/4).
50% isn't "hit a lot"

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:21 PM

I am ALL IN on the over.

Dumpster is going to get lit the **** up tonight.

I said it first.

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by WvGambler

With Carp on the mound and only a 6.5 total, Vegas is expecting a STL win then right NO? I believe so......STL wins 4-1.

That's what I'm thinking.

dynamite140 · 07-25-10, 06:24 PM

However, the juice is around -125 for the over and +115 or so for the under. The over is juiced so much and some books have the over at -130 and -135 so this is a real tough pick. I mean if it was over for -115, i think under would be the play.

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:25 PM

That -125 on the over tells you what to do.

Don't be a pussy.

Over 6.5 runs.

Cards win 12-0

darkenergy · 07-25-10, 06:25 PM

I check last night, all of the trends pointing toward UNDER is a play. People who took OVER in the last two games will probably stop chasing when see Carpenter on the mount.
I went for OVER 6 -150, BIG.
Will do live play, hoping the first innings no score and I can get 5 or below, I will pounding again.

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

That -125 on the over tells you what to do.

Don't be a pussy.

Over 6.5 runs.

Cards win 12-0

Not really, considering it opened at 7.

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

I check last night, all of the trends pointing toward UNDER is a play. People who took OVER in the last two games will probably stop chasing when see Carpenter on the mount.
I went for OVER 6 -150, BIG.
Will do live play, hoping the first innings no score and I can get 5 or below, I will pounding again.

That's what I'm talkin bout!

Dumpster is going to get ROCKED tonight.

I said it first.

darkenergy · 07-25-10, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

That's what I'm talkin bout! Dumpster is going to get ROCKED tonight. I said it first.

BUT I booked 5:00 am this morning..............

Foggy · 07-25-10, 06:27 PM

I had a great day already so I'll just bet a small parlay of Cubs and Under

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:28 PM

Dumpster has given up six runs and seven runs his last two outings.

One thing the Cards DO for Carpenter is give RUN SUPPORT.

ALL THE TIME.

DUMPSTER gave up 7 runs to Houston and 6 runs to Philly when Philly could not hit a whore in a whore house.

OVER 6.5.

Go all in.

Make some motherfrackin cash tonight.

I Said it first.

DUMPSTER GET'S ROCKED.

You will have that over by the third inning.

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

Dumpster has given up six runs and seven runs his last two outings.

One thing the Cards DO for Carpenter is give RUN SUPPORT.

ALL THE TIME.

DUMPSTER gave up 7 runs to Houston and 6 runs to Philly when Philly could not hit a whore in a whore house.

OVER 6.5.

Go all in.

Make some motherfrackin cash tonight.

I Said it first.

DUMPSTER GET'S ROCKED.

You will have that over by the third inning.

Two things to look at:

1) Dumpy's night #'s.
2) Cardinals' road #'s.

They're "due" -- especially Pujols -- but I wouldn't be banking on a big breakout.

WvGambler · 07-25-10, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Foggy

I had a great day already so I'll just bet a small parlay of Cubs and Under

Cubs and under?! Ballsy play...I like the turd cutter in your avatar though, so I will allow it!

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:33 PM

Dumpster....

Dumpster....

Dumpster.....

Remember I called him Dumpster in the top of the fourth inning when you have already won on that over.

Foggy · 07-25-10, 06:35 PM

That's my love!
Espn home team 13-3(2 comebacks and a 10 inning run)
#1 bet of the day by a ton is the cards, I think it's to easy, same with the over

darkenergy · 07-25-10, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

I am ALL IN on the over. Dumpster is going to get lit the **** up tonight. I said it first.

I probably will too, got about 1200 left on account, booked a nickle so far.
If the play loss, Oh well.
Nothing more to say, no more ace to play. GL to us smacky

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

I probably will too, got about 1200 left on account, booked a nickle so far.
If the play loss, Oh well.
Nothing more to say, no more ace to play. GL to us smacky

You're putting 40% of your account on a baseball total?

2Bdown · 07-25-10, 06:37 PM

68% of public on OVER, yet i see very little line movement. UNDER is the play for me

Foggy · 07-25-10, 06:38 PM

Lines are screaming take the Cards and over and that's what the public is doing in huge #'s

$Burm$ · 07-25-10, 06:40 PM

Under 4 me, only side u can go, reminds me of that bosox number last night

2Bdown · 07-25-10, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by Foggy

Lines are screaming take the Cards and over and that's what the public is doing in huge #'s

I love going against joe public in these spots

ttwarrior1 · 07-25-10, 06:46 PM

if cubs win the game will go over, its that simple

Stringer Bell · 07-25-10, 06:49 PM

You gotta be crazy to be on the over this game. The last two starts Carp has looked unbelievably be good, almost untouchable. On the Cubs u3 +105 here.

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

I probably will too, got about 1200 left on account, booked a nickle so far.
If the play loss, Oh well.
Nothing more to say, no more ace to play. GL to us smacky

GL Brother.

I went all in for $1,700............so good luck to us!

SmackdownV · 07-25-10, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Stringer Bell

You gotta be crazy to be on the over this game. The last two starts Carp has looked unbelievably be good, almost untouchable. On the Cubs u3 +105 here.

It's not about Carpenter.

It's about Dumpster.

OVER 6.5 runs.

darkenergy · 07-25-10, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You're putting 40% of your account on a baseball total?

If the spot is right.
Two things that I didn't like it too much (but I love this play despite these two negatives), line set a little too low, and people are pounding OVER all day long, but line never move up to 7. BUT sometime you gotta roll the dice.
You did put a big chunk of your BR on a total play few days back if I remember correctly.

I don't have humble confident like smacky, but I feel this game will end somewhere 5-4 CUB win.

ttwarrior1 · 07-25-10, 06:53 PM

if everyone thinks carpenter is gonna pitch a gem then why is everyone on the cubs

No coincidences · 07-25-10, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

If the spot is right.
Two things that I didn't like it too much (but I love this play despite these two negatives), line set a little too low, and people are pounding OVER all day long, but line never move up to 7. BUT sometime you gotta roll the dice.
You did put a big chunk of your BR on a total play feel days back if I remember correctly.

I don't have humble confident like smacky, but I feel this game will end somewhere 5-4 CUB win.

The line opened at 7. Sharps pounded it down to 6.5.