Spent some time lately with 1st inning prop bets. I think I have it tweaked enough to start betting with small. Basically, I use first inning only stats to come up with a projected percentage of the chance of a run being scored in the first inning, and then compare it to the available line and take anything with value. I personally am going to play it as a 4 game martingale chase. There is a reason I think this one warrants one. I will document the results both in chase and flat betting form here.
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7/19
Will a run be scored in the first inning:
(A) COL/FLA - NO (-145)
(A) BOS/OAK - YES (EVEN)
(A) PHI/STL - YES (-110)Comment -
this guy kinda got the first inning strategy down pat
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I noticed that post. His strategy is just blindly taking the biggest plus money wager. This one I came up with actually has some substance behind the wagers.Comment -
you cant argue with his results, though...regardless if its "blind"Originally posted by 70kgman
ill keep an eye out for this thread though, good luckComment -
GL 70K! I will keep an eye for sureComment -
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2-0 so far. And the Boston/Oakland game later was the one that looked the best stat wise. Cant believe I got the YES in that one at EVEN money. Dice-K has a ERA of over 11, whip of almost 3, and a BAA of .500 in the first inning this season. Sheets 1st inning ERA is over 6 with a BAA of .354 as well.Comment -
Looks like its now at +105Comment -
Good luck. I'm sick of losing all my 1st inning winnings on whole games.
Maybe this is the new way to get shit done.Comment -
Here are the ones I see value in today:
7/20
Will a Run be scored in the first inning?
(B) SEA/CHW - NO (-155)
(A) TEX/DET - NO (+110)
(A) CLE/MIN - YES (-120)
RECORD:
Chase = 2-0 (+2 units) (1 series pending)
Flat = 2-1 (+1 units)Comment -
DaBA needs some help on NY/Arz. Have any leans?Comment -
I like NO SCORE (+110) based on the numbers I came up with. I personally stayed away from that one just because the sample size for Enright was so small (just 3 starts).Originally posted by DaBAComment -
Thanks.Originally posted by 70kgmanComment -
good luck hope it works out for yaComment -
Am actually just starting to try the same thing, will be interesting just to compare picks. I am going to try using mostly the pitchers and team batting first inning sOPS+ from this season to evaluate matchup's.
for today I picked,
Tor-KC +105 NO
COL-FLR +110 NO
PHI-STL +100 YES
NYM-ARI +105 NOComment -
hey people DABA already have a thread about this....Comment -
2-1 again.
(B) SEA/CHW - NO (-155) WIN
(A) TEX/DET - NO (+110) LOSS
(A) CLE/MIN - YES (-120) WIN
UPDATED RECORD:
Chase = 4-0 (+4 units) (1 series pending)
Flat = 4-2 (+2.1 units)Comment -
Good Job. I will be watching and maybe playing.Comment -
cant wait to see a large sample size of theseComment -
Its different. I hope its successful so I can quit playing whole games.Originally posted by lam824Comment -
Great job man, keep it up.Comment -
Didn't find much value today. Just one game. This game does make me a litlle nervous though, statistically it looks good to me at EVEN value, but Mauer usually gets afternoon games off which will significantly affect the strength of Minny's first inning line-up. Guess I will go with it anyway though.
7/21
Will a run be scored in the first inning?
(B) CLE/MIN - YES (EVEN) (to win 1.91 units for the chase)
RECORD:
Chase = 4-0 (+4 units) (1 series pending)
Flat = 4-2 (+2.1 units)Comment -
Westbrook has allowed first inning runs in 7 of his last 8 starts...
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Which one looks better 70k?
14:00_Game_2_Tor/KCR___No___+105_
or (I will ask 70kgman)
14:00_Game_2_Hou/Chc__Yes___+105_
Would you lean this way?
21:40_Game_6_Nym/Arz___Yes___-105_Comment -
If I had to choose, I would like the NO in the TOR/KC a little bit more than the YES in the CHC/HOU. But given it is just Rzepczynski's 2nd start of the year, you can only really guess at what you are going to get in his half of inning.Originally posted by DaBA
And don't have much of a lean in the NYM/ARZ, but if forced to choose I'd say the YES would be the slightly better choice.Comment -
Agreed on the CLE/MIN YES, also gonna go with LAA/NYY NO -105
Was 2-2 yesterday on +100 and over picks
Daba, would go with TOR/KCR NO if I had to choose, but the Toronto pitcher doesn't have enough starts.
And based on my numbers the NYM/ARZ is dead even.
70kgman might have found a better trend on the games than me though...Comment -
Here is the early game, will post rest after that.
(C) FLA/COL - NO (-145) (to win 2.82 units for the chase)Comment -
how do u decide if its a no or yes? even with a juice?Comment -
I haven't been doing too good on this experiment (2-4) but today I'm gonna go with:
SD-ATL NO -135
SFG-ARI NO -110Comment -
I've beeing doing 1st inning game for a bit and i suggest you to chase. bet small in the beginning and when you win around 50 bucks(depends on how much u want to win) after 2 or 3 games of chase then just bone out.Originally posted by nategiComment -
Use 1st inning only pitching and hitting stats to come up with my own projected percentage (based on statistics) of either one happening. Then compare it to the line and find the ones that fall outside the juice on one side or the other.Originally posted by cgjeon
For example, the -145 line for NO in the FLA/COL game implies there is a 59.18% chance of no run being scored. I came up with a percentage higher than that, so I took it.Comment -
If I find that I can pick winners at a decent rate and decide to put a decent amount of money into 1st inning picks I will do a chase, right now I'm just putting down $5 a game to test the system out.Originally posted by cgjeonComment -
^That sounds better than just picking the dogs on 1st inning plays...
JJ is pitching perfectly right now, lets hope for marlins not to score. they got some good hitters in 1st inning.Comment -
I thought of doing that, but sometimes luck runs out. chase with small money is the best bet i think. good luck thoughOriginally posted by nategiComment
