El Visitantes a.k.a "The Visitors." This is not a system, but rather a formula that I've used to play some team totals where the risk is low and the potential profit margin high. Choose wisely with whatever you decide. Here's the basic formula for these picks:
1. Find a pitching match-up that is in favor of the visiting team.
2. Find a visiting team total that is set generally at 4 runs or less and take the OVER.
3. Totals at 4.5 or more may sometimes fit the formula, but mostly looking for a total of 4 or less.
So why do I like this? Taking a visiting team of course you are guaranteed the most ABs per game with the guaranteed 9 innings worth of ABs. If the starting pitching match-up + bullpen is advantageous to the visiting team than the normal expectation under this premise is that El Visitantes will have a solid shot to at least score four runs and leave your bank account at a push as the worst case scenario.
Again, this is just something I've done myself in wagering during the 1st half of the season. As with any "formula" for a winner, it promises nothing. But, tracking from this point on.
July 15th: WHITE SOX OVER 4 [-105]
Kevin Slowey goes for the Twins against Chicago tonight. Slowey has a 5.66 ERA lifetime vs. the Pale Hose. In one start this year, he yielded 5 ER in less than 5 IP to the White Sox. In four of his last five starts before the All-Star break, opponents hit for 4 runs or better. Looking down the Chicago lineup tonight, here's how they fare against Slowey.
Pierre: 2 for 3
Vizquel: No ABs
Rios: 5 for 13 [1 HR/2 RBI]
Konerko: 3 for 17 [3 RBI] *2 of the hits came this season*
Quentin: 2 for 10
Kotsay: 1 for 3
Pierzynski: 4 for 11 [2 RBI]
A.Ramirez: 5 for 12 [4 RBI]
Beckham: 0 for 2
Also as a final number, I do also factor in who is on the mound for El Visitantes and the run support they generally get. John Danks tonight. On the road, the White Sox have provided him with four runs or more of support in 5 of 7 road starts. Wind is also blowing straight out to center at a gusty 18 mph or so. 17 starts, 15 HRs given up by Slowey, but only 6 at home.
1. Find a pitching match-up that is in favor of the visiting team.
2. Find a visiting team total that is set generally at 4 runs or less and take the OVER.
3. Totals at 4.5 or more may sometimes fit the formula, but mostly looking for a total of 4 or less.
So why do I like this? Taking a visiting team of course you are guaranteed the most ABs per game with the guaranteed 9 innings worth of ABs. If the starting pitching match-up + bullpen is advantageous to the visiting team than the normal expectation under this premise is that El Visitantes will have a solid shot to at least score four runs and leave your bank account at a push as the worst case scenario.
Again, this is just something I've done myself in wagering during the 1st half of the season. As with any "formula" for a winner, it promises nothing. But, tracking from this point on.
July 15th: WHITE SOX OVER 4 [-105]
Kevin Slowey goes for the Twins against Chicago tonight. Slowey has a 5.66 ERA lifetime vs. the Pale Hose. In one start this year, he yielded 5 ER in less than 5 IP to the White Sox. In four of his last five starts before the All-Star break, opponents hit for 4 runs or better. Looking down the Chicago lineup tonight, here's how they fare against Slowey.
Pierre: 2 for 3
Vizquel: No ABs
Rios: 5 for 13 [1 HR/2 RBI]
Konerko: 3 for 17 [3 RBI] *2 of the hits came this season*
Quentin: 2 for 10
Kotsay: 1 for 3
Pierzynski: 4 for 11 [2 RBI]
A.Ramirez: 5 for 12 [4 RBI]
Beckham: 0 for 2
Also as a final number, I do also factor in who is on the mound for El Visitantes and the run support they generally get. John Danks tonight. On the road, the White Sox have provided him with four runs or more of support in 5 of 7 road starts. Wind is also blowing straight out to center at a gusty 18 mph or so. 17 starts, 15 HRs given up by Slowey, but only 6 at home.