The following system has been working nearly flawlessly before that impossible Cliff Lee start, but with the line that he faced, I only lost on the RL because there was no way I was going to play -410 juice.
There are two different systems, one of which is the one i am delving into here, and as I continue to post the numbers, you will see why I asked myself the question: "What do these guys do against the RL?" This is a great way to get around playing substantial juice. We will get to that in a little while.
The system plays the martingale style and is all based on a 5 point (unit or money) bet. to win 5, not risk. If you lose the start in the system, you must bet the next start of that same pitcher to win 5+ whatever you lost on the last start. The actual system would have you play the losses, plus what you would have won, plus to win 5 on the second start. And this goes on and on until you finally hit. But Finally is not the correct word, because this system hits most of the time, and these starters NEVER lose 3 straight, which is why they are in the system. The only concern in this system is the juice that will often face, but with the consistent dubyas that these fellows produce, you can safely and securely play them at will. And, if you happen to lose, as i did (4 straight) to start the system, it doesn't matter much, as you will definitely get it back the next time out.
We will take several factors into consideration. number one: The pitcher. If the pitcher is dominant, then he may make the system. number two: the team that pitcher plays for. Why would you play a guy who's team loses on a consistent basis? That isn't good for winning. number 3: patterns. We dont want any starter that loses more than one or two in a row on a consistent basis. With that being said, these are the pitchers that have been selected to play in this martingale system:
Ubaldo Jimenez. He is 15-1 thus far this season with a 2.20 era and a 2.45 bb/k ratio. the Colorado Rockies are 16-2 in games that Jimenez starts. He is clearly the most dominant pitcher in the majors, and clearly gets the nod to join our system. He is our ace. ** Col is 15-3 vs the RL in his starts.
Adam Wainwright, SP St. Louis Cardinals. Wainwright is 13-5 with a 2.11 era. He has an even better BB/K ratio than Jimenez. The Cards are 13-6 in Wainwright's starts and he has NEVER lost two consecutive. This is a lovely thing when considering our system. He is in, no doubt. Also, Adam is undefeated at home: a perfect 9-0. And his road losses are to very good teams. Three of which are on the west coast (SFO LAD SD), one won back-to-back NL pennants (PHI), and the other can flat out mash the ball some nights (TOR). Wainwright is in and we will play him with confidence. ** St. Louis is 12-7 vs the RL in Adam's starts. He is in the RL system.
CC Sabathia, SP New York Yankees. Overall, CC is 12-3 with an absolutely dreadful month of May, but the lefty big man has certainly found his groove heading into the all-star break. CC has won 8 in a row, and all but one of those beat the -1.5 run line. He has allowed one earned run or less in 5 consecutive starts, and as the temperature rises and the AL East race bogs down, you can expect more of the same from CC. He is the man. No doubt. Play him with confidence. The Yankees' offense is just the icing on the cake. ** NY is 12-7 vs the RL in CC's starts, and is 7-1 since his first June start. He is also in the RL system.
David Price, SP Tampa Bay Rays. DP is 12-4 with a 2.42 with 100ks and only 43 walks. The Rays are 12-5 in games the Price starts and have not lost 2 in a row all season. He was the starting pitcher for the AL all-star squad, has one of the most explosive lineups behind him, great defense, and can flat out pitch. He had two ruff starts vs a central squad from each league to finish the month of may, but in one of those contests his boys posted 10 runs of support. This guy will not lose 3 in a row all year, mark it down. ** The Rays are 11-6 vs the RL in his starts. he will be in the system vs the RL.
Clifford Lee, SP Texas Rangers. Cliff just got traded to the first place team in the AL west. He already was worthy of the system with his 8-3 record and 'round 2ish ERA for the dreadful Seattle Mariners, but with the move to the Rangers, his is an absolute lock. He always gives any team a chance to win, his players love playing the field behind him, and now he just got a real fat boost in offensive support. So far this season, Cliff Lee has 91 strikeouts and has posted a whopping...(are you ready for this?).. SIX walks. that's good enough for a 0.95 WHIP. The Mariners were 9-4 in his starts this year, and I expect that number to increase dramatically with the Texas Rangers. I am aware of his struggles in the Ballpark at Arlington, but I am not concerned about that whatsoever. ** Seattle was 7-6 vs the RL in Lee's starts. He will be in our RL system.
Chris Carpenter, SP St. Louis Cardinals. Chris is 9-3 this season with a 3.29 ERA and 108 ks. The Cards are 13-6 in his starts. He, however, is in the midst of his only 2 game losing streak with losses at home against the Brewers (who only seem to show up some of the time) and on the road in Denver vs our Ace, Ubaldo Jimenez. The thing with this loss is, tho, that we didn't play it in our system, as we had two from the system going head to head. We haven't really decided the best way to go about this rare occurrence, but as of now, we are just going to leave it alone. So technically, his back to back losses dont count against our system. We still are looking to win back the losses from his first go vs the Brewers. **Cards are only 7-12 vs the RL in his starts. We will only use him in the system vs the ML. (we will also continue to monitor Carpenter, he may be primed for a Halladay replacement if the phils can get it going in the second half.)
Phil Hughes, SP NYY. This guy has been absolutely stellar through the first half of the season, posting an 11-2 record with a 3.65 and a better than 3/1 K/BB ratio. The Yanks came close to losing two of his starts in a row, but got it done 7-6 vs the Blue Jays to seal the deal and win back the loss at home against Seattle on the 29th of June. The Yankees are 13-3 in his starts and you can't ignore this kind of success. They will also add one more starter to our system, then next guy on the list. ** The Yanks are 12-4 vs the RL in Hughes' starts. He, too will be in this system.
Andy Pettitte, SP NYY. I still cant believe it's happening, and I wasn't going to include the guy, but it is happening and his is included. The guy from Texas has been dominant. He is 11-2 with a 2.70 and is striking out batters vs issuing free passes at a 2.5/1 rate. The Yanks have won his last four starts (all by 2 runs or more) and are 14-3 overall in games in which Andy takes the ball. Andy has only given up more than 4 ER once all season. He, too, gets that lovely Yankee support. He is in the system to stay, as I love the support. ** NY is 12-5 vs the RL in his starts. Add him.
Josh Johnson, SP Florida Marlins. This guy is probably the best pitcher in the game. The only problem is... he's on an inconsistent team. He has posted a 9-3 record and has an amazing 1.70 ERa. Which means, basically, that the Marlins are always in it. The Marlins did lose his previous 2 starts (1-2 & 3-4) before he went in Dodger Stadium and shut em out. They also had lost 3 out of 5. I refuse to keep this guy out of the system, though, because he just absolutely gives his team a shot to win every time he takes the hill. I really wish the Fish didn't have a losing record overall, but in his starts they are 11-7 and that is enough paired with his ERA for me to play him confidently every time he goes. Even if it is -200 juice and he has lost two straight. I think he will get it done each and every time. ** he will not be in the RL system due to lack of support.
Those are the guys. Since the start of the system on the 2nd of July, the standard system (vs the ML) is 10-4 (+32.75) and the Run Line system is 7-3 (+21.75). Because there are two successful systems in place, it may be in your best interest to play one and not the other. I totally could see only playing the RL system, as the juice will be nice and low with an even money play or better popping up from time to time. But why mess with a winner? Here is the spreadsheet breaking down the plays:
07/11/2010 02:37 PM MLB Lee RL -145 v Balt (Tillm... $7.25 $5.00
07/11/2010 02:37 PM MLB CC -255 @ SEA (Rowl-S... $12.75 $5.00
07/11/2010 02:37 PM MLB CC RL -145 @ SEA (Rowl-S... $7.25 $5.00
07/10/2010 12:51 AM MLB Hughes -187 v Sea (Pauley) $9.35 $5.00
07/10/2010 12:51 AM MLB Hughes RL -115 v Sea (Pauley) $5.75 $5.00
07/09/2010 02:24 PM MLB Wainwright ML -200 @ Hou (Norris) $10.00 $5.00
07/09/2010 02:24 PM MLB Wainwright RL -120 @ Hou (Norris) $6.00 $5.00
07/08/2010 04:49 PM MLB Pettitte ML -160 @ SEA (Vargas) $8.00 $5.00
07/08/2010 04:49 PM MLB Pettitte RL +100 @ SEA (Vargas) $5.00 $5.00
07/07/2010 05:43 PM MLB Josh Johnson -125 @LAD (Kuroda) $14.69 $11.75
07/07/2010 05:40 PM MLB David Price -184 @ Boston (wak... $20.42 $11.10
07/06/2010 05:35 PM MLB CC RL +105 @ OAK (Cahill) $5.00 $5.25
07/06/2010 05:35 PM MLB CC ML -155 $7.75 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:51 AM MLB Lee RL +145 $5.00 $7.25
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Wainwright -150 $7.50 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Wainwright RL +150 $5.00 $7.50
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Hughes -210 $10.50 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Hughes RL +100 $5.00 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Lee -117 $5.85 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:43 AM MLB Jimenez RL +100 sbr $5.00 $5.00
07/03/2010 03:48 PM MLB Ubaldo Jimenez -205 sbr $10.25 $5.00
07/03/2010 03:48 PM MLB Carpenter -200 sbr $10.00 $5.00
07/02/2010 03:47 AM MLB -135Josh Johnson, FL -135 sbr $6.75 $5.00
07/02/2010 03:47 AM MLB -122David Price, TB -122 sbr $6.10 $5.00
~ Points are greatly appreciated. I need some donations! let's make some cash.
There are two different systems, one of which is the one i am delving into here, and as I continue to post the numbers, you will see why I asked myself the question: "What do these guys do against the RL?" This is a great way to get around playing substantial juice. We will get to that in a little while.
The system plays the martingale style and is all based on a 5 point (unit or money) bet. to win 5, not risk. If you lose the start in the system, you must bet the next start of that same pitcher to win 5+ whatever you lost on the last start. The actual system would have you play the losses, plus what you would have won, plus to win 5 on the second start. And this goes on and on until you finally hit. But Finally is not the correct word, because this system hits most of the time, and these starters NEVER lose 3 straight, which is why they are in the system. The only concern in this system is the juice that will often face, but with the consistent dubyas that these fellows produce, you can safely and securely play them at will. And, if you happen to lose, as i did (4 straight) to start the system, it doesn't matter much, as you will definitely get it back the next time out.
We will take several factors into consideration. number one: The pitcher. If the pitcher is dominant, then he may make the system. number two: the team that pitcher plays for. Why would you play a guy who's team loses on a consistent basis? That isn't good for winning. number 3: patterns. We dont want any starter that loses more than one or two in a row on a consistent basis. With that being said, these are the pitchers that have been selected to play in this martingale system:
Ubaldo Jimenez. He is 15-1 thus far this season with a 2.20 era and a 2.45 bb/k ratio. the Colorado Rockies are 16-2 in games that Jimenez starts. He is clearly the most dominant pitcher in the majors, and clearly gets the nod to join our system. He is our ace. ** Col is 15-3 vs the RL in his starts.
Adam Wainwright, SP St. Louis Cardinals. Wainwright is 13-5 with a 2.11 era. He has an even better BB/K ratio than Jimenez. The Cards are 13-6 in Wainwright's starts and he has NEVER lost two consecutive. This is a lovely thing when considering our system. He is in, no doubt. Also, Adam is undefeated at home: a perfect 9-0. And his road losses are to very good teams. Three of which are on the west coast (SFO LAD SD), one won back-to-back NL pennants (PHI), and the other can flat out mash the ball some nights (TOR). Wainwright is in and we will play him with confidence. ** St. Louis is 12-7 vs the RL in Adam's starts. He is in the RL system.
CC Sabathia, SP New York Yankees. Overall, CC is 12-3 with an absolutely dreadful month of May, but the lefty big man has certainly found his groove heading into the all-star break. CC has won 8 in a row, and all but one of those beat the -1.5 run line. He has allowed one earned run or less in 5 consecutive starts, and as the temperature rises and the AL East race bogs down, you can expect more of the same from CC. He is the man. No doubt. Play him with confidence. The Yankees' offense is just the icing on the cake. ** NY is 12-7 vs the RL in CC's starts, and is 7-1 since his first June start. He is also in the RL system.
David Price, SP Tampa Bay Rays. DP is 12-4 with a 2.42 with 100ks and only 43 walks. The Rays are 12-5 in games the Price starts and have not lost 2 in a row all season. He was the starting pitcher for the AL all-star squad, has one of the most explosive lineups behind him, great defense, and can flat out pitch. He had two ruff starts vs a central squad from each league to finish the month of may, but in one of those contests his boys posted 10 runs of support. This guy will not lose 3 in a row all year, mark it down. ** The Rays are 11-6 vs the RL in his starts. he will be in the system vs the RL.
Clifford Lee, SP Texas Rangers. Cliff just got traded to the first place team in the AL west. He already was worthy of the system with his 8-3 record and 'round 2ish ERA for the dreadful Seattle Mariners, but with the move to the Rangers, his is an absolute lock. He always gives any team a chance to win, his players love playing the field behind him, and now he just got a real fat boost in offensive support. So far this season, Cliff Lee has 91 strikeouts and has posted a whopping...(are you ready for this?).. SIX walks. that's good enough for a 0.95 WHIP. The Mariners were 9-4 in his starts this year, and I expect that number to increase dramatically with the Texas Rangers. I am aware of his struggles in the Ballpark at Arlington, but I am not concerned about that whatsoever. ** Seattle was 7-6 vs the RL in Lee's starts. He will be in our RL system.
Chris Carpenter, SP St. Louis Cardinals. Chris is 9-3 this season with a 3.29 ERA and 108 ks. The Cards are 13-6 in his starts. He, however, is in the midst of his only 2 game losing streak with losses at home against the Brewers (who only seem to show up some of the time) and on the road in Denver vs our Ace, Ubaldo Jimenez. The thing with this loss is, tho, that we didn't play it in our system, as we had two from the system going head to head. We haven't really decided the best way to go about this rare occurrence, but as of now, we are just going to leave it alone. So technically, his back to back losses dont count against our system. We still are looking to win back the losses from his first go vs the Brewers. **Cards are only 7-12 vs the RL in his starts. We will only use him in the system vs the ML. (we will also continue to monitor Carpenter, he may be primed for a Halladay replacement if the phils can get it going in the second half.)
Phil Hughes, SP NYY. This guy has been absolutely stellar through the first half of the season, posting an 11-2 record with a 3.65 and a better than 3/1 K/BB ratio. The Yanks came close to losing two of his starts in a row, but got it done 7-6 vs the Blue Jays to seal the deal and win back the loss at home against Seattle on the 29th of June. The Yankees are 13-3 in his starts and you can't ignore this kind of success. They will also add one more starter to our system, then next guy on the list. ** The Yanks are 12-4 vs the RL in Hughes' starts. He, too will be in this system.
Andy Pettitte, SP NYY. I still cant believe it's happening, and I wasn't going to include the guy, but it is happening and his is included. The guy from Texas has been dominant. He is 11-2 with a 2.70 and is striking out batters vs issuing free passes at a 2.5/1 rate. The Yanks have won his last four starts (all by 2 runs or more) and are 14-3 overall in games in which Andy takes the ball. Andy has only given up more than 4 ER once all season. He, too, gets that lovely Yankee support. He is in the system to stay, as I love the support. ** NY is 12-5 vs the RL in his starts. Add him.
Josh Johnson, SP Florida Marlins. This guy is probably the best pitcher in the game. The only problem is... he's on an inconsistent team. He has posted a 9-3 record and has an amazing 1.70 ERa. Which means, basically, that the Marlins are always in it. The Marlins did lose his previous 2 starts (1-2 & 3-4) before he went in Dodger Stadium and shut em out. They also had lost 3 out of 5. I refuse to keep this guy out of the system, though, because he just absolutely gives his team a shot to win every time he takes the hill. I really wish the Fish didn't have a losing record overall, but in his starts they are 11-7 and that is enough paired with his ERA for me to play him confidently every time he goes. Even if it is -200 juice and he has lost two straight. I think he will get it done each and every time. ** he will not be in the RL system due to lack of support.
Those are the guys. Since the start of the system on the 2nd of July, the standard system (vs the ML) is 10-4 (+32.75) and the Run Line system is 7-3 (+21.75). Because there are two successful systems in place, it may be in your best interest to play one and not the other. I totally could see only playing the RL system, as the juice will be nice and low with an even money play or better popping up from time to time. But why mess with a winner? Here is the spreadsheet breaking down the plays:
07/11/2010 02:37 PM MLB Lee RL -145 v Balt (Tillm... $7.25 $5.00
07/11/2010 02:37 PM MLB CC -255 @ SEA (Rowl-S... $12.75 $5.00
07/11/2010 02:37 PM MLB CC RL -145 @ SEA (Rowl-S... $7.25 $5.00
07/10/2010 12:51 AM MLB Hughes -187 v Sea (Pauley) $9.35 $5.00
07/10/2010 12:51 AM MLB Hughes RL -115 v Sea (Pauley) $5.75 $5.00
07/09/2010 02:24 PM MLB Wainwright ML -200 @ Hou (Norris) $10.00 $5.00
07/09/2010 02:24 PM MLB Wainwright RL -120 @ Hou (Norris) $6.00 $5.00
07/08/2010 04:49 PM MLB Pettitte ML -160 @ SEA (Vargas) $8.00 $5.00
07/08/2010 04:49 PM MLB Pettitte RL +100 @ SEA (Vargas) $5.00 $5.00
07/07/2010 05:43 PM MLB Josh Johnson -125 @LAD (Kuroda) $14.69 $11.75
07/07/2010 05:40 PM MLB David Price -184 @ Boston (wak... $20.42 $11.10
07/06/2010 05:35 PM MLB CC RL +105 @ OAK (Cahill) $5.00 $5.25
07/06/2010 05:35 PM MLB CC ML -155 $7.75 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:51 AM MLB Lee RL +145 $5.00 $7.25
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Wainwright -150 $7.50 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Wainwright RL +150 $5.00 $7.50
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Hughes -210 $10.50 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Hughes RL +100 $5.00 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:50 AM MLB Lee -117 $5.85 $5.00
07/04/2010 03:43 AM MLB Jimenez RL +100 sbr $5.00 $5.00
07/03/2010 03:48 PM MLB Ubaldo Jimenez -205 sbr $10.25 $5.00
07/03/2010 03:48 PM MLB Carpenter -200 sbr $10.00 $5.00
07/02/2010 03:47 AM MLB -135Josh Johnson, FL -135 sbr $6.75 $5.00
07/02/2010 03:47 AM MLB -122David Price, TB -122 sbr $6.10 $5.00
~ Points are greatly appreciated. I need some donations! let's make some cash.
. If only we could find a way to get the kid some consistent support... I guess we'd have to ship him to another club.