To me, Everything about this Cubs game tonight points to the fact that the Cubs should be a pretty nice favorite here, yet this game is a pick em at -110 both ways.
I dont get that at all. The Cubs should be -170 or higher, and I am telling you right now the Cubs are going to win this game.
The Cubs start Ryan Dempster tonight. His numbers are better than his opponents in every category. Dempster comes in with a 3.54 ERA. He has 17 starts for 117 innings pitched. In those 117 innings, Dempster has allowed 95 hits, 50 runs, 42 walks, and recorded 114 strikeouts.
By comparison, Edwin jackson also has 17 starts. He has a 4.74 ERA, 112 innings pitched, has allowed 110 hits for almost 1 hit per inning which is really bad. He has also allowed 60 runs, 48 walks and only recorded 89 strikeouts.
Dempster - 17 starts- 117 innings - 95 hits - 50 runs - 42 walks - 114 K
Jackson - 17 starts- 112 innings - 110 hits-60 runs - 48 walks - 89 K
Clearly, the price of this game is faded toward Jackson because of his no hitter, which of course got a lot of attention and therefore a lot of people just bet him blindly now.
But since his no hitter, Jackson has been hit hard every time out and has an ERA of almost 6.75 since that game. I expect more of that tonight as I think this Cubs lineup will get to Jackson early and often.
I think the Cubs also have the advantage looking at the lineups. With the exception of Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs entire lineup is batting .270 or better. Not counting the pitcher of course. So while the Cubs may not have a lot of big .350 hitters, they do bring a consistent lineup where any spot can kill you.
Even Ramirez, who is only hitting .184 is a serious threat. We all know what he is capable of, and he was 2 for 4 with 4 RBI last night. Ramirez is certainly not a .184 hitter. So really, Jackson will not have a break at any point going through teh Cub lineup.
While the Cubs dont have a true under .270 batter in the lineup, EVERY Diamondback in the lineup is hitting under .270 except Montero. The Dbacks just have no punch at all.
Young .265
Johnson .268
Upton .260
Montero .377
Reynolds .217
LaRoche .251
Drew .265
Parra .258
The Cubs also used 2 relievers last night, while the DBacks had to use 5. so if this game goes to the bullpens close ( which it wont ) the Cubs have more fresh relievers to turn to.
I just think this is a game to good to pass up. Without a doubt the Cubs shouyld be a nice size favorite here. They have the better record, better pitcher, better batting, and more rested bullpen. yet because Jackson through that no hitter, his prices will be inflated for a while until bettors realize it was a fluke.
The Cubs can be found for +100 in some places and thats a great deal on a team that should be a big favorite. Thats a really great price on a team that is a *** LOCK *** tonight.
Good Luck on all plays
I dont get that at all. The Cubs should be -170 or higher, and I am telling you right now the Cubs are going to win this game.
The Cubs start Ryan Dempster tonight. His numbers are better than his opponents in every category. Dempster comes in with a 3.54 ERA. He has 17 starts for 117 innings pitched. In those 117 innings, Dempster has allowed 95 hits, 50 runs, 42 walks, and recorded 114 strikeouts.
By comparison, Edwin jackson also has 17 starts. He has a 4.74 ERA, 112 innings pitched, has allowed 110 hits for almost 1 hit per inning which is really bad. He has also allowed 60 runs, 48 walks and only recorded 89 strikeouts.
Dempster - 17 starts- 117 innings - 95 hits - 50 runs - 42 walks - 114 K
Jackson - 17 starts- 112 innings - 110 hits-60 runs - 48 walks - 89 K
Clearly, the price of this game is faded toward Jackson because of his no hitter, which of course got a lot of attention and therefore a lot of people just bet him blindly now.
But since his no hitter, Jackson has been hit hard every time out and has an ERA of almost 6.75 since that game. I expect more of that tonight as I think this Cubs lineup will get to Jackson early and often.
I think the Cubs also have the advantage looking at the lineups. With the exception of Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs entire lineup is batting .270 or better. Not counting the pitcher of course. So while the Cubs may not have a lot of big .350 hitters, they do bring a consistent lineup where any spot can kill you.
Even Ramirez, who is only hitting .184 is a serious threat. We all know what he is capable of, and he was 2 for 4 with 4 RBI last night. Ramirez is certainly not a .184 hitter. So really, Jackson will not have a break at any point going through teh Cub lineup.
While the Cubs dont have a true under .270 batter in the lineup, EVERY Diamondback in the lineup is hitting under .270 except Montero. The Dbacks just have no punch at all.
Young .265
Johnson .268
Upton .260
Montero .377
Reynolds .217
LaRoche .251
Drew .265
Parra .258
The Cubs also used 2 relievers last night, while the DBacks had to use 5. so if this game goes to the bullpens close ( which it wont ) the Cubs have more fresh relievers to turn to.
I just think this is a game to good to pass up. Without a doubt the Cubs shouyld be a nice size favorite here. They have the better record, better pitcher, better batting, and more rested bullpen. yet because Jackson through that no hitter, his prices will be inflated for a while until bettors realize it was a fluke.
The Cubs can be found for +100 in some places and thats a great deal on a team that should be a big favorite. Thats a really great price on a team that is a *** LOCK *** tonight.
Good Luck on all plays
