Lincecum (-135) Lookin Sweet?

[thebayareabeast]

Never said that.

The oddsmakers do know what they're doing, though.

Every number is where it is for a reason. And yes, they're sharp as shit. Not perfect, but there's definitely a method to it all and you'd be crazy to assume they're asleep at the wheel here or on any MLB line in July.

Fair warning.

I will tell you something right now. As betters, it is human nature for us to overrate them.

They are not as sharp as you believe. So many lines are so far off it is comedy. But naturally you remember the Oakland/NYY game today where they got lucky and the final score was 6-1 and the total was set at 7.5.

And what of the side? NY was what -126?

[2daBank]

It was -136 an hour ago.

someone with money likes mil

[TPowell]

I will tell you something right now. As betters, it is human nature for us to overrate them.

They are not as sharp as you believe. So many lines are so far off it is comedy. But naturally you remember the Oakland/NYY game today where they got lucky and the final score was 6-1 and the total was set at 7.5.

And what of the side? NY was what -126?

obviously some lines seem idiotic at times because there are 10+ lines every day for 6 months straight. Obviously funny shit will happen. Majority of the time though, the line is pretty accurate

[thebayareabeast]

someone with money likes mil

Means absolutely nothing to me. Its a Lincecum fader. You know how much money this guy is going to lose by the end of the year if he keeps doing this shit?

He will be calling in 10$ bets from a payphone soon if his strategy is to fade the 2 Time NL CY Young winner.

And what else could it be? The Milwaukee starter is trash and the Giants have owned them the first two games.

[TPowell]

Means absolutely nothing to me. Its a Lincecum fader. You know how much money this guy is going to lose by the end of the year if he keeps doing this shit?

He will be calling in 10$ bets from a payphone soon if his strategy is to fade the 2 Time NL CY Young winner.

And what else could it be? The Milwaukee starter is trash and the Giants have owned them the first two games.

precisely why some people (some sharps, some not) will bet Milwaukee. I find myself doing this quite a bit

[2daBank]

i didnt say whether it should mean anything to you, all im saying is why bet them at -135 when you can get a better price now and possibly even better in the mourning/afternoon....

[No coincidences]

I will tell you something right now. As betters, it is human nature for us to overrate them.

They are not as sharp as you believe. So many lines are so far off it is comedy. But naturally you remember the Oakland/NYY game today where they got lucky and the final score was 6-1 and the total was set at 7.5.

And what of the side? NY was what -126?

OK.

I wouldn't test the competency of oddsmakers very often if I were you, but some people need to learn their lessons later.

Just keep an eye on the number, and check the public betting. Compare and contrast. It's not an exact science, and yes, oddsmakers do swing and miss sometimes. But it's also not a fate I'd want to tempt.

[TPowell]

I see 82% on SF and line going the other way around 6 cents

[thebayareabeast]

obviously some lines seem idiotic at times because there are 10+ lines every day for 6 months straight. Obviously funny shit will happen. Majority of the time though, the line is pretty accurate

Theres no doubt that a lot of the times the lines are pretty uncanny. I tend to notice it more in NFL than MLB. But that can also be attributed to the length of season and number of games. My main point though is that the oddsmakers are not setting "traps" for us as many people put it. That implies knowledge of the outcome of tomorrows events or at the very least implies that they have a better idea of what is going to happen than in actuality they do.

If people want to know why the line is where it is look at 2 stats. Giants road record, and Lincecums last 3 starts. Throw in Milwaukees home record and you have a -135 favorite, although I will be honest and say this line does seem off to me.

When I see a line that I think is off I don't start looking around for traps though, I hammer it and it seems to work out more often than not.

[flakeandbake]

if you wanna see locks see FlakeNation (Wednesday)

[2daBank]

if you wanna see locks see FlakeNation (Wednesday)

if i wanna see locks ill go to the hardware store, are you a wanna be tout? if not talk like you have a clue and stop using words like lock that have nothing to do with handicapping.....unless that is you know for a fact a player, ump, ect, is on the take, and im pretty sure you dont......

[LLXC]

-135 usually a steal with Lincy.

[suicidekings]

is there a way you can watch live baseball online for free, i wish i bought the direct TV baseball package

You want to take a look at myp2pforum dot eu

You need to install the player, but after that you can watch all live MLB games. They lag a little bit so you'll be 5-20 seconds behind most of the time, but it's high quality.

[suicidekings]

And what else could it be? The Milwaukee starter is trash and the Giants have owned them the first two games.

Yes and No... The Giants have been playing well recently, but on Monday they took advantage of the bullpen after a strong start, and today they won easily because of MIL errors. Narveson is not trash. He doesn't have the best stuff, but he's now got a few solid starts under his belt and has shown increased confidence on the mound.

That being said, SF is a much better play than MIL tomorrow, as MIL is just not playing well right now. Considering that overall, his road stats have been superior to his home performance, Lincecum is in an ideal spot to get his groove back on Wednesday, having a good chance of receiving some run support and being available at a good price. Line movement aside...

[dukeblue888]

giants and the over

[2daBank]

i didnt say whether it should mean anything to you, all im saying is why bet them at -135 when you can get a better price now and possibly even better in the mourning/afternoon....

hope you SF backers waited as it down to -124 now......

[clonecat]

I am really concerned with Lincecum at the moment. He does not have his great stuff and the Brewers can still hit. The great thing about the Giants today is the huge bullpen advantage that they have. 3 of the top 5 money winners are also in the top 5 of bullpen ERA (Padres, Braves, Rangers)

[lyon804]

I got an idea.. If you like Brewers take the over. Obviously the only reason anybody here likes Brewers is because of there past success against Lincecum and the fact Timmy has not been on his game lately. Besides if you are still wrong about Brewers you still have a chance on the over. I can't see Brewers winning this game and staying under.

[Pauulzcappin]

Sharps are pounding Milwaukee.

[2daBank]

i really hope no one jumped on SF at -135

[Wilforth]

Over

[starfire]

7/7/2010 05:10PM
San Francisco Giants T Lincecum -R -1½ +135 -121 Action -121 Listed Pitchers Over 8 -105
Milwaukee Brewers C Narveson -L +1½ -155 +111 Action +111 Listed Pitchers Under 8 -115

[teaserpleaser]

at that price hard to pass but i might hate the bullpen and hate the lineup and freak is not the freak right mow

[thebayareabeast]

Sharps are pounding Milwaukee.

You're a funny dude. Lets see how "sharp" they are.

[Jaug]

Milwaukee batting lineup is real weeks.

[Snowball]

Going with Giants 1st 5 inn ONLY tonight
also like White Sox and Twins.

[smitch124]

I would stay away from this game, Lincecum is tough to back right now. He simply hasn't had his command for 6 weeks now. Could he round into shape for this start? Yes, but not a big enough yes to lay wood on the road for a team that has a shortstop playing horrible baseball right now (Renteria) the other shortstop is hurt and in a bad slump (Uribe). Last year's star (Sandoval) hits into nothing but double plays and should've last night before Counsell threw the ball away. Their new catcher (Posey) has a bad wrist and a big bump on the knee, he is doubtful today. Also there is a decent chance Rowand could be in the lineup ('nuff said there)

[kingofmonash]

lincecum looks sweeter at -120 rite now .... yea rite ...sweeter than *** itself... hes been getting cummed last few games ...

[thebayareabeast]

His wrist is so bad that on the pitch after he grimaced he hit the ball out of the park opposite field.

Uribe and Renteria are a joke granted, but Burrell and Huff will be in the lineup today too.

[thebayareabeast]

lincecum looks sweeter at -120 rite now .... yea rite ...sweeter than *** itself... hes been getting cummed last few games ...

Do not ever post in this forum again.

[Jerrod]

hes a shit pitcher now

[smitch124]

His wrist is so bad that on the pitch after he grimaced he hit the ball out of the park opposite field.

Uribe and Renteria are a joke granted, but Burrell and Huff will be in the lineup today too.

True he seems like he can play with the wrist, but the knee may keep him out of the lineup today.

[BrigadierPudding]

Lincecum is down to -121 at 5 Dimes. Very surprising move.

[kingofmonash]

i hope u can take a joke

[t-bone]

lincecum was around this number a few times last year and killed it. sabathia was around this number yesterday vs. AAA oakland. hit the fuckin play already, narveson is a gas can.