This one sticks out like a sore thumb tomorrow and I still can't figure out why this line is so low.
Cardinals -135 (2:15 PM ET)
Someone please explain this line. We have a 25-12 home record for the Cardinals and a 12-30 road record for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks own the worst bullpen in the league and have lost the first two games of this three game set. So why so low? Well it can't be a trap, it is just oddsmakers undervaluing Jeff Suppan. They did it in his first few starts back and are doing it again. Suppan's first start was at home against Seattle where they made him a -165 favorite. However, in the other two games of that series the Cardinals were -280 and -200. This continues to happen, in his second start (home vs Oakland) he was -105, the other two games they were -238 and -219. Then in Kansas City he was +145 while they were -119 and -137.
I guess there is good reason he should be getting no respect from oddsmakers, I mean he absolutley shit the bed in Milwaukee but how quickly we forget what team he joined. The Cardinals have a history of doing great things with pitchers that are either ending there career or struggling elsewhere. How many times do we have to see it until we expect it? Look at John Smoltz last year. Duncan is able to take these guys and adjust their games to get good results and he is doing it again with Suppan.
Let's remember Suppan had the best years of his career under Duncan and then bolted for the money in Milwuakee where the Brewers really ran out of patience with him and removed him from the rotation after just two starts which is a little extreme. The results for Suppan so far have been better, but it remains to be seen just how well he can do. After all in his three starts the Cardinals are 1-2 and in those three starts he was very limited on pitch count as they are trying to stretch his arm back out after not throwing more then 4 innings since April 23. He threw 86 pitches last time out so expect him to be able to throw 95-100 if he doesn't get into trouble. His three starts come out to a 3.95 ERA and I have supreme confidence in Duncan. I am also hoping throwing in a place where he had success will bring him some luck. Since 2005 in Busch Stadium he is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA in over 140 innings.
The Diamondbacks since May 17 are 3-18 on the road. Not to mention, on the season against over .500 teams they are 7-25 on the road for the year. They have lost 10 of their last 14 and 24 of their last 34 games overall. The Cardinals have won 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games at home against the Diamondbacks. The contrast in bullpens won't help either.
The Diamondbacks bullpen is especially terrible blowing all sorts of games in crazy ways throughout the years (including game one). They have a 6.08 ERA over 152 innings. The Cardinals bullpen has gone 177.1 innings and has an ERA of just 2.52. The team ERA on the road is an embarrassing 5.45 and while they can't get anyone out they also can't get anyone on with an average of .226 on the road against righties. The bullpen ERA on the road is 7.46.
The Diamondbacks will throw rookie Barry Enright who is making his major league debut. The start was originally for Edwin Jackson but they are giving him a few extra off days after a 149 pitch no-hitter. Enright was taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft and was given the start because he was pitching the best out of the minor league candidates. Apparently, he has great control which is the key to his success. His stuff is said to be very average but his control is the driving force. His fastball is his main pitch and I don't think this is a good spot for him to succeed. Going against a steady lineup without overpowering stuff in your big league debut I think he is going to learn quick that guys like Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday can take advantage of some of those pitches getting the guys down at AA out.
The bottom line is a terrible road team, that can't field, has one of the worst bullpens I have seen, and is starting a pitcher who has never pitched in the majors before who is said to have average stuff. Against one of the top home teams in the league with a great bullpen and a veteran pitcher. The line is only -135?
Cardinals -135 (2:15 PM ET)
Someone please explain this line. We have a 25-12 home record for the Cardinals and a 12-30 road record for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks own the worst bullpen in the league and have lost the first two games of this three game set. So why so low? Well it can't be a trap, it is just oddsmakers undervaluing Jeff Suppan. They did it in his first few starts back and are doing it again. Suppan's first start was at home against Seattle where they made him a -165 favorite. However, in the other two games of that series the Cardinals were -280 and -200. This continues to happen, in his second start (home vs Oakland) he was -105, the other two games they were -238 and -219. Then in Kansas City he was +145 while they were -119 and -137.
I guess there is good reason he should be getting no respect from oddsmakers, I mean he absolutley shit the bed in Milwaukee but how quickly we forget what team he joined. The Cardinals have a history of doing great things with pitchers that are either ending there career or struggling elsewhere. How many times do we have to see it until we expect it? Look at John Smoltz last year. Duncan is able to take these guys and adjust their games to get good results and he is doing it again with Suppan.
Let's remember Suppan had the best years of his career under Duncan and then bolted for the money in Milwuakee where the Brewers really ran out of patience with him and removed him from the rotation after just two starts which is a little extreme. The results for Suppan so far have been better, but it remains to be seen just how well he can do. After all in his three starts the Cardinals are 1-2 and in those three starts he was very limited on pitch count as they are trying to stretch his arm back out after not throwing more then 4 innings since April 23. He threw 86 pitches last time out so expect him to be able to throw 95-100 if he doesn't get into trouble. His three starts come out to a 3.95 ERA and I have supreme confidence in Duncan. I am also hoping throwing in a place where he had success will bring him some luck. Since 2005 in Busch Stadium he is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA in over 140 innings.
The Diamondbacks since May 17 are 3-18 on the road. Not to mention, on the season against over .500 teams they are 7-25 on the road for the year. They have lost 10 of their last 14 and 24 of their last 34 games overall. The Cardinals have won 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games at home against the Diamondbacks. The contrast in bullpens won't help either.
The Diamondbacks bullpen is especially terrible blowing all sorts of games in crazy ways throughout the years (including game one). They have a 6.08 ERA over 152 innings. The Cardinals bullpen has gone 177.1 innings and has an ERA of just 2.52. The team ERA on the road is an embarrassing 5.45 and while they can't get anyone out they also can't get anyone on with an average of .226 on the road against righties. The bullpen ERA on the road is 7.46.
The Diamondbacks will throw rookie Barry Enright who is making his major league debut. The start was originally for Edwin Jackson but they are giving him a few extra off days after a 149 pitch no-hitter. Enright was taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft and was given the start because he was pitching the best out of the minor league candidates. Apparently, he has great control which is the key to his success. His stuff is said to be very average but his control is the driving force. His fastball is his main pitch and I don't think this is a good spot for him to succeed. Going against a steady lineup without overpowering stuff in your big league debut I think he is going to learn quick that guys like Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday can take advantage of some of those pitches getting the guys down at AA out.
The bottom line is a terrible road team, that can't field, has one of the worst bullpens I have seen, and is starting a pitcher who has never pitched in the majors before who is said to have average stuff. Against one of the top home teams in the league with a great bullpen and a veteran pitcher. The line is only -135?
out..
