A system I have been using for baseball

[pad]

I have posted a RL Chase system at another forum, some may be aware of it some may not. I wanted to share it here. I am not going to track it at both places so I will just give you an understanding here.

The system is 19-2 +10.65 Units

I play the worst road teams (.400) or lower vs. the best home teams (.600) or better. I chase the home team rl during these matchups to win 1 unit. If it hits series closes out. If i get a moneyline of -140 or better I play that instead of the rl. Basically im avoiding the heavy juice by playing the rl but its been a success thusfar. It was also very profitable last year. If anyone decides to try it good luck you will make $$$.

[djiddish98]

Thanks for driving down the price on Dog RLs.

[djiddish98]

Also, your intentions were good, but they don't like "systems" in the tank

[pad]

I was just trying to share I could give a **** what anyone thinks of it. Wasn't looking for props just showing some of you bums how to make a buck.

[pad]

Thanks for driving down the price on Dog RLs.

keep betting those dog rl's u will be trying to buy dinner with SBR points eventually. douchebag

[Rich Boy]

You obviously havent been betting for very long.

This kind of "system" will never work and you WILL go broke.

Dont feel bad, I used try "systems" like this too, but I learned the hard way.

[roon]

If it hits series closes out.

What do you mean by this? Thanks.

[pad]

You obviously havent been betting for very long.

This kind of "system" will never work and you WILL go broke.

Dont feel bad, I used try "systems" like this too, but I learned the hard way.

I have been using this system for 2 years its gone 72-4 I have plenty of filters that keep it solid. I will stick with it.

[pad]

What do you mean by this? Thanks.

Tonight im playing tex rl, if tex covers the rl tonight then the series is over and the profit is made. I do not continue playing the series any longer.

[djiddish98]

There's plenty of documentation on here as to why chase systems don't work.

Care to share how many total games you have bet, what your wins / losses are, and your expected win percentage based on the odds you played?

[pad]

There's plenty of documentation on here as to why chase systems don't work.

Care to share how many total games you have bet, what your wins / losses are, and your expected win percentage based on the odds you played?

have been using this system for 2 years its gone 72-4 I have plenty of filters that keep it solid.

That is 94.73%

Your typical chase system doesnt work u are correct, but this is not your typical chase system. its very well filtered and there is no juice. It exploits large advantages. The highest line ive ever had is -140 typically its even $$ to +115

[djiddish98]

I was asking about each game you've bet, not the series result.

If I was to guess, did one of your losses come on the Astros - Cardinals earlier this year?

[djiddish98]

Regardless, you're better off betting these games individually using Kelly or flat betting at the least. Chasing forces you to risk more than is optimal even if you can identify your EV (and that's just one of the downfalls)

[Sawyer]

Chase systems are very effective in baseball..but only if you have a good chase system.

As long as you limit your chase, you should be fine. For example, let's say every loss is equal to -11 units and every win is +1 Units. If you go 50-2, your profit will be +28.

Your chase system makes sense. A good home team won't get swept at home often by a poor road team. How many times Orioles sweep Yanks at NY? Every 20 year?

Don't forget..People who don't believe in systems are people who don't have a good system.

[pad]

Chase systems are very effective in baseball..but only if you have a good chase system.

As long as you limit your chase, you should be fine. For example, let's say every loss is equal to -11 units and every win is +1 Units. If you go 50-2, your profit will be +28.

Your chase system makes sense. A good home team won't get swept at home often by a poor road team. How many times Orioles sweep Yanks at NY? Every 20 year?

Don't forget..People who don't believe in systems are people who don't have a good system.

Sawyer you know me, Parlayallday.

[pad]

I was asking about each game you've bet, not the series result.

If I was to guess, did one of your losses come on the Astros - Cardinals earlier this year?

No. And i dont think you understand this at all. the series record is all that matters even if 2 out of 3 of the games in a series lose I still profit so obviously this is a little much for you to comprehend.

[djiddish98]

I was trying to point out that you'd probably make more money betting the games straight if you had an idea what your individual games were pulling for you.

Series records for chases are ridiculous, because 1 loss <> 1 win in the eyes of your bank roll. I'll give you credit for citing units won, although there's always an opportunity cost (the fact that you probably could have made more money straight betting each if you're identifying certain games as +EV).

I understand chasing - You're taking coin flips and hoping for heads once out of X tosses. You are going to hit a string of 3 tails though, and its going to eat all your incremental winnings.

To each his own

[djiddish98]

Here a nice thread on chases. There's some awful advice mixed in with the good advice, and fortunately, its pointed out.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/345797-can-chase-ever-work.html

[sharpcat]

guess it is a good thing you were not on the redsox this year when they were swept in a 4 game homestead

you my friend are a genius I can not believe nobody has ever thought of running a martingale chase in baseball

I nominate pad for the nobel peace prize!

[Sawyer]

Sawyer you know me, Parlayallday.

Welcome mate

[INVEGA MAN]

i might have to try it. i love a sysytem because ity saves me a lot of work

[pad]

guess it is a good thing you were not on the redsox this year when they were swept in a 4 game homestead

you my friend are a genius I can not believe nobody has ever thought of running a martingale chase in baseball

I nominate pad for the nobel peace prize!

You obviously are not a genius. At that time the red sox were not over .600 @ home so they would not have quailified and the rays were the best road team in baseball so they were not under .400 so they wouldnt have qualified either! Maybe you should dust of your glasses and read before you speak out of your ass. I will keep trucking with this solid system that hasnt failed me in 2 years. Its not a typical matingale system please read what the system consists of before running off at the mouth.

[SamsNCharge99]

if it wins, good using it, but don't expect it to work everytime

[roon]

So when you say .400 road team v .600 home teams, you mean .400 on the road and .600 at home? Or .400 and .600 overall?

[sharpcat]

You obviously are not a genius. At that time the red sox were not over .600 @ home so they would not have quailified and the rays were the best road team in baseball so they were not under .400 so they wouldnt have qualified either! Maybe you should dust of your glasses and read before you speak out of your ass. I will keep trucking with this solid system that hasnt failed me in 2 years. Its not a typical matingale system please read what the system consists of before running off at the mouth.

The fact that this was moved out of the think tank and into players talk should be an early indicator of how idiotic this is, if you are telling me that a team on the RL with an above .600 will never lose 3 games in a row against a .400 team on the RL you should dust off your glasses because I guarantee you I could very easily dig up many of times that this has occurred.

[curious]

I'm sorry but using the RL is idiotic.

I just ran the stats on games where the home team is a fav. 314 wins by the fav were by more than 2 runs. 138 wins were by 1 run. Now, I didn't have a way to look at team win-loss record, I only filtered by line <0 and site=home. But, 138 wins out of 314 were by 1 run for all favs at home.

Also, the vig on the RL is way too high, unless you are scanning all lines and all line moves for those times when the RL is out of synch with the ML in the player's favor. That does happen sometimes but the lines don't usually stay imbalanced in the player's favor for long.

You would be better off to bet the ML and bet the games straight up (instead of using a chase) and vary the bet size based on your EV. Do you have a method for caluclating the EV?

Does your filter take into account the starting pitching?

[pad]

Are you people retarded????

The road team must be .400 or worse on the road and the home team must be .600 or better at home. I do filter starters if the home teams worst starters are going agaisnt the strong part of the rd teams rotation it would be a no play.

[pad]

I'm sorry but using the RL is idiotic.

I just ran the stats on games where the home team is a fav. 314 wins by the fav were by more than 2 runs. 138 wins were by 1 run. Now, I didn't have a way to look at team win-loss record, I only filtered by line <0 and site=home. But, 138 wins out of 314 were by 1 run for all favs at home.

Also, the vig on the RL is way too high, unless you are scanning all lines and all line moves for those times when the RL is out of synch with the ML in the player's favor. That does happen sometimes but the lines don't usually stay imbalanced in the player's favor for long.

You would be better off to bet the ML and bet the games straight up (instead of using a chase) and vary the bet size based on your EV. Do you have a method for caluclating the EV?

Does your filter take into account the starting pitching?

You will need to go back and look and see if the home teams were better than .600 and the rd teams were under .400 and the first month and half doesnt count any way because you use that time to see how the teams are playing. I adjust it weekly based on performance. Im not a rookie I know what I am doing and this has worked tremendously for me. Ive lost 2 series this year totalling 7 units in deficit and I have won 18 totalling 21 units in profit so im happy. I also have a totals system that has picked up over 30 units and my regular plays are + about 8 units so I am doing just fine and all my plays are documented on the RX

[sharpcat]

If you have lost 2 series so far you would have lost at least 14 units, losing 7 units every time you lose and winning 1 every time you win you need to win 7 series for every series you lose. This means that you need to win better than 85% of the time to profit which you have won 90% currently and that is only on a very small sample of 20 series plays which is not near enough to draw a conclusion on your overall win expectancy.

Basically in the time you have been running this system you have risked a large amount in order to win a little. Martingale systems will usually return a profit short term but if you attempted to utilize this frequently or even worse attempted to consider your self a professional sports bettor and retire from work to use this system full time, I guarantee you that you will eventually go broke.

You are not the first person to consider using the martingale and there is a reason why everybody in the world is not filthy rich from this and there is a reason why books do not ban players for this type of play, this reason is that you will give it all back eventually.

Anytime you make a bet on a game without taking into consideration the price of the bet and what your implied winning percentage is you will be betting into a -EV situation every time and there is no system that is capable of turning a -EV play to a +EV play. What this means is if you are paying -145 on a team that only has a 55% probability of winning that you are betting with a -EV of 7%.

[pad]

Ok im done with you morons. Its not a ****ing martingale system. I lost 2 series but one was a 1 game then rainout probably shouldnt count it but im honest unlike most of u retards. ENjoy losing money daily and bashing people who try to show you a solid system ill be back on the rx where i have everything documented. If u want to check in from time to time and hope that I am losing feel free my name there is parlayallday. See u losers later!

[Swinging Johnson]

Pad is just another happy customer here at SBR! Hey Sharpie, what about a +EV scenario each and every time. What are the stats over say, the last 5 years, on underdogs in MLB? Anything greater than E?

[sharpcat]

Pad is just another happy customer here at SBR! Hey Sharpie, what about a +EV scenario each and every time. What are the stats over say, the last 5 years, on underdogs in MLB? Anything greater than E?

+EV situations do not mean that you will not have a long losing streak it simply means that if you had a +EV of 5% per play that over the course of hundreds of bets you would expect to win $5 per every $100 wagered. Assume we flipped a coin hundreds of times and every time you won I gave you $105 and every time I won you gave me $100, this would not mean that we would not run into scenario's where we flip heads 8 times in a row but long term the 50% probability of flipping heads will balance itself out and you will have an EV of +$5.

So the answer is no, by using a chase with +EV you are sacrificing value that is guaranteed by assuming that you will not hit a long losing streak that will bankrupt you whereas flat betting would have guaranteed you a profit.

[curious]

This Pad character needs to take a prozac or something. I can prove that by betting a chase system on the RL instead of just betting the ML straight up he is leaving money on the table. So, I offer that advice and he gets his panties in a wad and tells me that he knows what he is doing, not a rookie, blah blah. Guess what, i'm not a rookie either.

Pad posts his "system" in a forum and people who know what they are talking about give constructive advice and the dude acts like he is 9 years old. I'm out.

[curious]

+EV situations do not mean that you will not have a long losing streak it simply means that if you had a +EV of 5% per play that over the course of hundreds of bets you would expect to win $5 per every $100 wagered. Assume we flipped a coin hundreds of times and every time you won I gave you $105 and every time I won you gave me $100, this would not mean that we would not run into scenario's where we flip heads 8 times in a row but long term the 50% probability of flipping heads will balance itself out and you will have an EV of +$5.

So the answer is no, by using a chase with +EV you are sacrificing value that is guaranteed by assuming that you will not hit a long losing streak that will bankrupt you whereas flat betting would have guaranteed you a profit.

Yes, but you bet a larger % of your bankroll when the EV is higher and a lower % when the EV is lower. Flat betting will never beat that. But you have to be able to calculate the EV with confidence to bet that way. Pad never did say if he has a method of calculating EV.

[DaBA]

All the haters haven't shared one ****ing record showing how great they are in their individual game betting. What a bunch of tools.
Keep up the good work pad.