Arizona/Atlanta under (9.5 -120): The two young starters tonight are probably due for a bit better performance than their cumulative records would indicate tonight. Buddy Carlisle usually does well at home against modest lineups, and he is likely to have something of a bounce-back start here IMO. On the other side, Micah Owings has been showing signs of living up to his potential recently, is also likely to have a decent start.
Atlanta has become an over team at home recently (7-2 O/U at home in August, including the anomalous Webb under game last night), and Atlanta could easily shell Owings and get to double digits all by themselves. But if that doesn't happen, the under should have a good shot at coming in at pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Boston ML (-130), over (9 -115): Jered Weaver should be more vulnerable at Fenway than he usually is at more pitcher-friendly parks, and Boston is likely to be able to hit him decently in this game.
The jury is still somewhat out on Curt Schilling, and the Angels' capable lineup won't make it easy for him. But he has looked decent in his first 2 starts back from the DL, and he is likely to keep Boston in the game.
After that, Boston should have a bullpen edge, at home with their key guys rested while the Angels' key bullpen guys have been worked a lot recently.
Add it all up, and Boston has value to pull out a win as a modest home favorite, and with the over, in a game that is more likely to have runs coming in from both sides at a steady pace than to have the zeros line up, IMO.
Minnesota ML (-160): Texas starter Kameron Loe is a very hot-and-cold, volatile starter, as many sinkerballers (and tall pitchers) are. When he is on he can have shutout starts with low pitch counts, but when he is off he gets hit hard, and the signs for this one are pointing to him not having a great game.
He is coming off of the DL, and he didn't have good control at all in his minor league rehab start, which is key to his success. Of course, this doesn't by any means guarantee that he is going to have a rough time in his first start back (see also: Vincente Padilla) but it's probably not a good sign.
Texas doesn't have the kind of lineup to force the issue in close games, and Boof Bonser should be able to keep Minnesota in it.
After him, of course, the Minnesota pen is very capable of closing things out, which is why Minnesota has a lot of close wins at home as a big favorite (see also: LA Angels) despite being a realtively weak-hitting team.
In this one, considering the modesty of Texas' lineup and the question marks surrounding Loe, Minnesota has value even as a big home favorite, IMO.
Houston/San Diego under (7.5 -125): Justin Germano hasn't pitched too well at Petco this year, or recently, but he has proven ability to get big league hitters out, and Houston's average lineup may let him coast for a few innings into a quality 5- or 6-inning start.
On the other side, Roy Oswalt has really been hitting his stride, and he hasn't yielded more than 1 run for 5 starts in a row now. He has always pitched well against San Diego, and there's no reason to think he will have a tough time in this start either.
If Germano has a good start, this game will be hard-pressed to go over, and even if he doesn't, if Oswalt has another 0- or 1-run start, the under will still have a reasonable shot at coming in. So all in all, the under has modest but solid value IMO.
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August 18 Ganchalysis: you asked for it
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