Minnesota / Toronto, any chance..

Cuse0323 · 05-18-10, 08:31 AM

Two pitchers who have been doing well, but I don't trust either. I'd lean under, but no play for me.

Wilforth · 05-18-10, 08:38 AM

Leaning UNDER but this is a daytime game. The either or both pens could take it Over. The o/u is a pass here. As for sides, Blue Jays get the node. The Twins are not a daytime team, especially on the road. If I'm right, I think they're 2-10 in that role.

Wilforth · 05-18-10, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by dekopaxus

Hi Guys,

Any chance the Minnesota / Toronto game go under 8 1/2 today, Tuesday?

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

Read this excerpt on the game from the ESPN website:

"Pavano is 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA in three starts at Toronto over the past two seasons, and he'll want to be particularly careful pitching to Wells. The two-time All-Star is 7 for 18 (.389) with three homers against Pavano."

Regul8er · 05-18-10, 08:51 AM

Sure there's a chance!

winM · 05-18-10, 08:55 AM

Still have chances!

Dank_Fire · 05-18-10, 09:03 AM

I really like the Blue Jays in this spot

dekopaxus · 05-18-10, 09:33 AM

Hi Guys,

Thanks for the replies. Much appreciated.

Tough call now.

Thanks.

Grind-It-Out · 05-18-10, 09:36 AM

Without looking at it further, I'd say there's between a 48% and 52% chance.

GGPLAYER · 05-18-10, 09:38 AM

I can only find this game at U-8. It's a play for Teecee and Bad_Cat who both play a Under system which has been doing very well as of late. Hope I just did not jinx it.

dekopaxus · 05-18-10, 11:39 AM

Hi Guys,

Yes, I went with the Under 8, not 8 1/2. Let's see what happens.

GL

bass7 · 05-18-10, 12:34 PM

not looking great for the under so far... thru 3 innings its 5-0 jays

pavano is playing softball with the blue jays offense it seems lol

RockyS · 05-18-10, 01:21 PM

I've chosen to go other way and picked over and twins in parlay duh

G's pks · 05-18-10, 01:42 PM

When you are trying to pick an under...why would you pick two teams that are offensively in the top ten scoring runs? Both average around five runs a game....and Toronto is in the bottom half of the league in runs allowed per game...almost 4.5.

teecee · 05-18-10, 01:48 PM

G's, it was a play based on both pitchers being ranked in the top 20 of the Sagarin pitcher ratings. Obviously, not every play will hit, but it has been on a very solid run. I play it this way b/c I cannot possibly find the time to cap every game.

robfl22 · 05-18-10, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by teecee

G's, it was a play based on both pitchers being ranked in the top 20 of the Sagarin pitcher ratings. Obviously, not every play will hit, but it has been on a very solid run. I play it this way b/c I cannot possibly find the time to cap every game.

Teecee...I also use that NPERA system but I add a few sabermetric tools like FIP and BABIP to cement the pick even further. The profits made using this system for the last 10 years are astounding and I often ask myself why more handicappers dont get involved with NPERA. Its about as concrete as you get when picking totals although 99% of the plays are UNDERS. One syndicate that I know of very well here in vegas has made an absolute killing on it.

Panekkkk · 05-18-10, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by teecee

G's, it was a play based on both pitchers being ranked in the top 20 of the Sagarin pitcher ratings. Obviously, not every play will hit, but it has been on a very solid run. I play it this way b/c I cannot possibly find the time to cap every game.

You might want to look at past performance versus a specific team before you solidify any plays based on that system. If one pitcher has terrible numbers against a team (Pavano) you might want to hold off.

teecee · 05-18-10, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by robfl22

Teecee...I also use that NPERA system but I add a few sabermetric tools like FIP and BABIP to cement the pick even further. The profits made using this system for the last 10 years are astounding and I often ask myself why more handicappers dont get involved with NPERA. Its about as concrete as you get when picking totals although 99% of the plays are UNDERS. One syndicate that I know of very well here in vegas has made an absolute killing on it.

Hey, bud, where are you finding you FIP(??) and BABIP #'s? I've tried to find #'s for BABIP, and have failed. Thanks in advance.

robfl22 · 05-18-10, 02:26 PM

Here are the results I have had using this system just for this season so far keeping in mind that I also cement these picks using BABIP and FIP. There are certain times when you look at the OVER when the books post a total of less than 7.

MLB 4/10/2010 Boston/Kansas City Over/Under u7.5 -121 Lost MLB 4/11/2010 St. Louis/Milwaukee Over/Under u7.5 -104 Lost MLB 4/13/2010 Chi White Sox/Toronto Over/Under u8.5 +106 Won MLB 4/15/2010 Chi White Sox/Toronto Over/Under u9 +111 Lost MLB 4/15/2010 Arizona/LA Dodgers Over/Under u7.5 -126 Lost MLB 4/20/2010 Tampa Bay/Chi White Sox Over/Under u8
-110 Won MLB 4/20/2010 St. Louis/Arizona Over/Under u9 -117 Lost MLB 4/21/2010 Cleveland/Minnesota Over/Under u9
-129 Won MLB 4/22/2010 NY Yankees/Oakland Over/Under u8 -105 Won MLB 4/22/2010 Colorado/Washington Over/Under u8 +104 Won MLB 4/24/2010 NY Yankees/LA Angels Over/Under u9.5 -104 Won MLB 4/24/2010 St. Louis/San Francisco Over/Under u7 +112 Won MLB 4/24/2010 Cleveland/Oakland Over/Under u7.5
+106 Won MLB 4/25/2010 St. Louis/San Francisco Over/Under u7.5 -103 Won MLB 4/27/2010 Washington/Chi Cubs Over/Under u8 -105 Won MLB 4/27/2010 LA Dodgers/NY Mets Over/Under u7 +100 Won MLB 4/29/2010 Arizona/Chi Cubs Over/Under u13 +104 Lost MLB 4/29/2010 Oakland/Toronto Over/Under u7.5 -108 Lost MLB 4/30/2010 Arizona/Chi Cubs Over/Under u14.5 -113 Lost MLB 5/1/2010 NY Mets/Philadelphia Over/Under u8
-122 Lost MLB 5/2/2010 Colorado/San Francisco Over/Under u8 -110 Won MLB 5/2/2010 Texas/Seattle Over/Under u7 +110 Won MLB 5/3/2010 Colorado/San Diego Over/Under o6.5 +113 Won MLB 5/5/2010 Tampa Bay/Seattle Over/Under u6.5 +113 Lost MLB 5/5/2010 Atlanta/Washington Over/Under u8 -107 Lost MLB 5/7/2010 Kansas City/Texas Over/Under u8 +100 Won MLB 5/7/2010 Tampa Bay/Oakland Over/Under u7.5 -108 Won MLB 5/11/2010 San Diego/San Francisco Over/Under u7.5 -115 Won MLB 5/12/2010 Chi White Sox/Minnesota Over/Under u8.5 -123 Won MLB 5/13/2010 NY Yankees/Detroit Over/Under u8 -109 Won MLB 5/15/2010 St. Louis/Cincinnati Over/Under u8 -109 Won MLB 5/15/2010 Washington/Colorado Over/Under u8.5 -105 Won MLB 5/15/2010 Houston/San Francisco Over/Under u6.5 -111 Won MLB 5/16/2010 Seattle/Tampa Bay Over/Under u7 -107 Won MLB 5/17/2010 Cleveland/Tampa Bay Over/Under u8.5 +100 Won

dskibin2 · 05-18-10, 02:27 PM

when lind and hill get into the act, the jays can put up some runs.. Both had a contribution today

teecee · 05-18-10, 02:32 PM

nice results for you

robfl22 · 05-18-10, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

You might want to look at past performance versus a specific team before you solidify any plays based on that system. If one pitcher has terrible numbers against a team (Pavano) you might want to hold off.

Pane, you are right, and looking at those past performance results play an important factor but often times the sample size is too small to really get any good data off it. And it was very true today with Pavano against the Jays even though 5 of those Jays runs were off the bullpen. I still made this UNDER play today because Pavano had a low NPERA and his FIP was 3.03 which told me he wasnt due for any type of correction when looking at his current stats for the season.

I think with every play, you will have subjective factors that have weight, its how you apply that weight that matters. But very good point about past performance as it is a very liable factor.

robfl22 · 05-18-10, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by teecee

Hey, bud, where are you finding you FIP(??) and BABIP #'s? I've tried to find #'s for BABIP, and have failed. Thanks in advance.

Teecee, I have a Stata statistical database that calculates all of this for me at the click of a button. However, you can also find these stats at Baseball Prospectus. Click stats at the top, then you will be able to come up with your own generated reports and it will give you a CSV option to download it into excel. If I were you, I would select all of the stats necessary to calculate FIP...download it into excel, then simply use the formula to do the calculation. Baseball Prospectus already had BABIP calculated but you have to do FIP yourself.

teecee · 05-18-10, 02:50 PM

Thanks for the info, man. I just googled and hit, I don't know, thousands of links. And to think I said I couldn't find it on my own. Sheesh! Baseball Prospectus. Thank you very much.

G's pks · 05-18-10, 03:15 PM

Would 20 games be a large enough sample size? In the last 20 games in toronto... The match up between Minnesota and Toronto went under 8 only 5 times out of 20!

G's pks · 05-18-10, 03:16 PM

So if you thought a 25% chance was good, continue on the books will love you guys...

robfl22 · 05-18-10, 03:19 PM

No problem teecee...good luck today. The Twins were a loser in the system today but there were other totals plays:

Halos/Rangers UNDER
Mets/Braves UNDER(Note: Santana adjusted NPERA when removing Philly implosion is off the charts GOOD!)
Giants/Padres OVER 6(BABIP, xFIP, and FIP suggests downward corrections with Sanchez AND Latos are LONG OVERDUE....The Play was UNDER 7 but OVER 6....amazing how much a half of a run means huh?)