MLB Betting Preview: Red Sox Host Yanks
When Boston hosted its rivals from New York to open the season, everything was even in the standings. Not so in this weekend's sequel with the Red Sox barely scratching above .500, trailing the Yankees by five games and AL East-leading Rays by 6.5. Health has been one problem in Beantown. Keeping opponents from crossing the plate has been another issue with Boston allowing the third-most runs in the AL.
The order is crumbling. The Tampa Bay Rays are the best team in baseball right now, and if they stay that way, there will be no room at the inn for either the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox.
All three play in the American League East, and there’s only one Wild Card to go around. It was the Yankees missing out in 2008; it could be Boston’s turn this year.
The Red Sox were supposed to be about defense this season. But playing in the bandbox that is Fenway Park doesn’t make life easy. Boston was ranked No. 11 in the majors last year in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating); this year, the Red Sox are No. 12.
Meanwhile, Boston is tearing the cover off the ball with a .812 OPS, third behind the Yankees at .822 OPS and the Arizona Diamondbacks at .814 OPS. Some things never change.
It would help the Red Sox if they weren’t playing with just one-third of their starting outfield. Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and offseason acquisition Mike Cameron (abdomen) are on the shelf, depriving the Sox of two quality defenders as they prepare to meet the Yankees in a three-game series at Fenway. New York will also be minus the defensive skills of Curtis Granderson in center field; catcher Jorge Posada is day-to-day with a mild strain in his right calf.
Here are the probable pitching matchups as we went to press.
Game 1: Phil Hughes vs. Josh Beckett (-110, 9)
Friday - 7:10 p.m. ET
Hughes (4.23 xFIP) was a top minor-league prospect after going to the Yankees in the first round of the 2004 draft, and he started showing signs of promise last year as a converted reliever with a 3.56 xFIP and a nasty 10.05 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s been nearly flawless in four starts for the Yankees out of the No. 5 hole; New York won three of those games for two quick units of profit.
The Yankees were idle on Thursday, so Hughes will have to outpitch Boston’s ace. It can be done. Beckett has had three bad starts and three good ones for the Red Sox, generating a 4-2 record and 0.82 units of profit. The 'over' is also 4-2 in Beckett’s six starts. This is an unusually average performance (4.45 xFIP) from the two-time All Star and playoff hero for both the Red Sox and the Florida Marlins. Until he gets his command issues sorted out, Beckett is vulnerable. The first betting odds on this contest have settled with Boston the 105-110 favorite with a total of nine runs.
Game 2: CC Sabathia vs. Clay Buchholz
Saturday - 3:10 p.m. ET
The Yankees are pretty happy with their ace. Sabathia (3.84 xFIP) has delivered five straight quality starts since getting knocked around by the Red Sox on Opening Night. New York has a 4-2 record behind Sabathia and 1.24 units in earnings. He looks every bit as good right now as he did in 2007 when he won the AL Cy Young as a member of the Cleveland Indians.
As Hughes is to the Yankees, Buchholz (4.03 xFIP) is to the Red Sox. He went to Boston in the supplemental first round of the 2005 draft and made a big impression with the parent club by throwing a no-hitter in his rookie 2007 campaign. Buchholz has been up and down from the minors since then, but he’s making the most of his opportunity this year, and the Sox have won three of his five starts to sit 0.34 units in the black.
Game 3: A.J. Burnett vs. Jon Lester
Sunday - 8:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)
New York’s hottest pitcher right now is A.J. Burnett (4.00 xFIP). He didn’t allow a single run in three of his last four starts, and the Yankees are 5-1 behind Burnett for 3.98 units in earnings. The big northpaw was Beckett’s teammate on the 2003 World Series champion Marlins, although he didn’t play because of Tommy John surgery, and Burnett continues to toil in the shadow of Sabathia. This gives Burnett that extra burst of betting value that handicappers love.
Lester (3.51 xFIP) stumbled out of the gate this year, but he’s given up just one earned run over his last three starts to even things up at 3-3 (-0.99 units) in his six appearances. The 'under' is 5-1 thanks to an unusually poor 3.00 runs of support per game. The Yankees scored four runs against Lester back on April 6 in a 6-4 victory as +128 road dogs.
When Boston hosted its rivals from New York to open the season, everything was even in the standings. Not so in this weekend's sequel with the Red Sox barely scratching above .500, trailing the Yankees by five games and AL East-leading Rays by 6.5. Health has been one problem in Beantown. Keeping opponents from crossing the plate has been another issue with Boston allowing the third-most runs in the AL.
The order is crumbling. The Tampa Bay Rays are the best team in baseball right now, and if they stay that way, there will be no room at the inn for either the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox.
All three play in the American League East, and there’s only one Wild Card to go around. It was the Yankees missing out in 2008; it could be Boston’s turn this year.
The Red Sox were supposed to be about defense this season. But playing in the bandbox that is Fenway Park doesn’t make life easy. Boston was ranked No. 11 in the majors last year in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating); this year, the Red Sox are No. 12.
Meanwhile, Boston is tearing the cover off the ball with a .812 OPS, third behind the Yankees at .822 OPS and the Arizona Diamondbacks at .814 OPS. Some things never change.
It would help the Red Sox if they weren’t playing with just one-third of their starting outfield. Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and offseason acquisition Mike Cameron (abdomen) are on the shelf, depriving the Sox of two quality defenders as they prepare to meet the Yankees in a three-game series at Fenway. New York will also be minus the defensive skills of Curtis Granderson in center field; catcher Jorge Posada is day-to-day with a mild strain in his right calf.
Here are the probable pitching matchups as we went to press.
Game 1: Phil Hughes vs. Josh Beckett (-110, 9)
Friday - 7:10 p.m. ET
Hughes (4.23 xFIP) was a top minor-league prospect after going to the Yankees in the first round of the 2004 draft, and he started showing signs of promise last year as a converted reliever with a 3.56 xFIP and a nasty 10.05 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s been nearly flawless in four starts for the Yankees out of the No. 5 hole; New York won three of those games for two quick units of profit.
The Yankees were idle on Thursday, so Hughes will have to outpitch Boston’s ace. It can be done. Beckett has had three bad starts and three good ones for the Red Sox, generating a 4-2 record and 0.82 units of profit. The 'over' is also 4-2 in Beckett’s six starts. This is an unusually average performance (4.45 xFIP) from the two-time All Star and playoff hero for both the Red Sox and the Florida Marlins. Until he gets his command issues sorted out, Beckett is vulnerable. The first betting odds on this contest have settled with Boston the 105-110 favorite with a total of nine runs.
Game 2: CC Sabathia vs. Clay Buchholz
Saturday - 3:10 p.m. ET
The Yankees are pretty happy with their ace. Sabathia (3.84 xFIP) has delivered five straight quality starts since getting knocked around by the Red Sox on Opening Night. New York has a 4-2 record behind Sabathia and 1.24 units in earnings. He looks every bit as good right now as he did in 2007 when he won the AL Cy Young as a member of the Cleveland Indians.
As Hughes is to the Yankees, Buchholz (4.03 xFIP) is to the Red Sox. He went to Boston in the supplemental first round of the 2005 draft and made a big impression with the parent club by throwing a no-hitter in his rookie 2007 campaign. Buchholz has been up and down from the minors since then, but he’s making the most of his opportunity this year, and the Sox have won three of his five starts to sit 0.34 units in the black.
Game 3: A.J. Burnett vs. Jon Lester
Sunday - 8:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)
New York’s hottest pitcher right now is A.J. Burnett (4.00 xFIP). He didn’t allow a single run in three of his last four starts, and the Yankees are 5-1 behind Burnett for 3.98 units in earnings. The big northpaw was Beckett’s teammate on the 2003 World Series champion Marlins, although he didn’t play because of Tommy John surgery, and Burnett continues to toil in the shadow of Sabathia. This gives Burnett that extra burst of betting value that handicappers love.
Lester (3.51 xFIP) stumbled out of the gate this year, but he’s given up just one earned run over his last three starts to even things up at 3-3 (-0.99 units) in his six appearances. The 'under' is 5-1 thanks to an unusually poor 3.00 runs of support per game. The Yankees scored four runs against Lester back on April 6 in a 6-4 victory as +128 road dogs.