1. #1
    FUqer
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    MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

    Hey guys and gals, I'm going back to posting the daily SDQL in my personal thread. I started out the season doing this, but my title to the thread didn't have anything to do with SDQL, and it was hidden a bit, so I started posting it in a separate thread last month. The reason I'm moving it back is because, I post a lot of SDQL related stuff in my personal thread, so I thought it would make more sense to just change the thread title and keep it together. I'm sure all the charts I had in the old thread will get added in this one once I update them.

    I also want to note that the SDQL plays aren't my personal plays. Some people get confused by this. For the record I have not had a good start to the season, I played on NHL profits and lost that, so I'm in a pause until I figure some things out. This is my 3rd season at MLB, +20 units 1st season and -20 units last season. It's been my worst sport, so I'm determined the most to change that.

    I personally pay more attention to the larger sample sizes SDQL trends that have been successful long term and short term. Some of them can be down right silly, but they are streaks non the less.

    For the ones that aren't team specific, I'll see how the team does in that spot.

    Specific match-ups for the day should also always be considered.

    I will also be posting projections from my model that was created about 3 weeks ago, so take it for what it's worth. I am constantly making changes as you would expect for being so new. It's the first time I've had a model for MLB and it will be a work in progress. I have found it's been great for beating the lines overnight, but that doesn't quite matter if the play doesn't win, and that's been a problem, although things like that usually work itself out in the long run if you can beat the line consistently, I just don't have the patience right now. I'm looking to use the model as just part of a larger system involving SDQL, match-ups, long term and short term profits among other things.

    Any tips, SDQL, discussions are appreciated and I don't mind if you disagree, I just ask that you be respectful. Good Luck!

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  2. #2
    FUqer
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    Daily sdql

    SDQL 6/1

    ALL = Yesterday 5-5 (Total 200-170)
    SU = Yesterday 2-2 (Total 118-93)
    OU = Yesterday 3-3 (Total 82-77)

    Best Bets = Yesterday 1-1 (Total 2-2)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    PLAY: The Red Sox (238-143 +9.5% ROI)

    AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7


    ------------

    OU

    UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-11-1 OU since Apr 07, 2008 as a dog after a game as a home favorite in which they scored 3 runs or less and won.

    team = Cardinals and D and p:HF and p:HW and p:runs <= 3 and date >= 20080407



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 73-42-5 OU +20.6% ROI this season.
    (Brewers, Dodgers, Rockies, D-Backs)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017


    ________________

    SU

    Red Sox ( Best Bet)

    OU

    Brewers/Mets Over ( Best Bet)
    Rockies/Mariners Over
    D-Backs/Marlins Over
    ___________________________________

    I've had some problems with the database not wanting to load the last couple of night on some Totals, more might be added later if it starts working.

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  3. #3
    FUqer
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    Thursday 6/1 Projections

    @CLE -210 (-224 69.1%) (2.3-5.3 = 7.6) - U8.5 - (-0.9)
    ARI@ -118 (-139 58.2%) (4.8-3.5 = 8.3) - O8 - (+0.3)
    @TOR -142 (-138 58.0%) (3.1-4.3 = 7.4) - U9 - (-1.6)
    @SEA -131 (-122 55.0%) (4.3-5.2 = 9.5) - O8.5 - (+1.0)
    LAD@ -112 (-117 53.9%) (4.8-4.1 = 8.9) - O8 - (+0.9)
    @LAA -112 (-110 52.5%) (4.8-5.3 = 10.1) - O8.5 - (+1.6)
    BOS@ -119 (-107 51.8%) (4.4-4.1 = 8.5) - U9 - (-0.5)
    MIL@ +140 (-102 50.5%) (4.6-4.5 = 9.1) - O8.5 - (+0.6)

    *My projections in ()
    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    Trends

    ARI @ MIA

    Greinke 7-0 vs Marlins.
    Locke 13-2 Over L15 team starts.
    D-Backs 1-6 on Road vs a lefty, 1.29 rpg.
    D-Back hitters are batting .417 off Locke in 60 AB's, 1 HR.

    MIL @ NYM

    Over 5-2 L6 Chase Anderson team starts. 12.5 rpg total. Under 3-0 when he starts vs the Mets.
    Over 6-1-2 L9 Zack Wheeler team starts. 9.0 rpg total. 2-0 career vs Brewers.

    LAD @ STL

    Brandon McCarthy 9-2 L11 team starts. Under 10-2 L12 Road starts, 7.32 rpg total.
    Adam Wainwright 6-1 L7 team starts, 4-0 L4. Over 11-3 L14 team starts, 10.6 rpg total.
    Dodger hitters are batting .203 in 69 AB's off Wainwright, 0 HR's.
    Cardinal hitters are batting .118 in 68 AB's off McCarthy, 0 HR's.

    BOS @ BAL

    Eduardo Rodriguez 7-1 L8 team starts. Under 12-2 L14 Road starts, 6.29 rpg total. Under 7-1 when he starts vs the Orioles.
    Under 7-1 L8 Home starts by Wade Miley.
    Red Sox hitters have 12 XBH off Miley in 83 AB's, 2 HR's.

    NYY @ TOR

    CC Sabathia 9-2 L11 starts. 1-6 L7 vs Blue Jays. Under 7-2-1 when he starts in Toronto.
    Marco Estrada 5-0 L5 team starts vs Yankees, 7-3 overall.

    MIN @ LAA

    Under 4-1 this season in starts by Adalberto Mejia.
    JC Ramirez is 6-1 L7 team starts. Under 7-2 in his starts this season.

    COL @ SEA

    Kyle Freeland 5-0 on the Road and 7-3 overall team starts this season, Under 8-2.
    Yovani Gallardo 2-8 L10 Home steam starts.
    Under is 25-6-1 in L32 Home starts by Yovani Gallardo.
    Yovani Gallardo 2-8 career team starts vs Rockies, Over 7-2-1.

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  4. #4
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    Greinke 7-0 in team starts vs the Marlins and is only -118 at the moment? I know the Marlins bats are hot, the D-Backs are on a long road stretch, they are 1-6 vs lefties on the road this season, averaging only 1.29 runs per game and Greinke is only like 11-20 on the Road after losing on the Road his previous start.

    But the D-Backs are still pretty hot themselves in their last 20 games, and the Marlins at one time went on like a 1-20 stretch against righties and they have played some pretty weak teams during their run. And that lefty they are starting is a gas can IMO, being a Pirates fan, and the D-Backs are batting .417 off him in 60 AB's, plus he has gone Over 13 out of his last 15 starts.

    The D-Backs -118 and Over 8, seem tempting to me.

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  5. #5
    FUqer
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    The other game that interest me the most is the Brewers +140. More than anything the perceived value and they are one of a few teams I have had a good track record with this year. Away Dogs on Thursday have been somewhat successful, but nothing major.

    ALL
    SU: 1021-1359 (-0.52, 42.9%) avg line: 141.2 / -155.0 on / against: +$3,625 / -$16,734 ROI: +1.5% / -4.5%

    Since 2016
    SU: 103-126 (-0.42, 45.0%) avg line: 138.4 / -150.2 on / against: +$1,055 / -$2,218 ROI: +4.6% / -6.4%

    Line between +130 and +145
    SU: 178-230 (-0.45, 43.6%) avg line: 134.5 / -144.7 on / against: +$997 / -$2,797 ROI: +2.4% / -4.7%

    I think I'm more interested in the Over, as both pitchers and teams trend heavily over and my model agrees.

    Mets this season.
    OU: 31-12-8 (2.32, 72.1%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$1,790 / -$2,128 ROI: +31.3% / -38.6%

    Brewers this season.
    OU: 30-21-2 (1.11, 58.8%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$733 / -$1,170 ROI: +12.6% / -20.0%

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  6. #6
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    The last play I like for the day would be the Indians -1.5. The A's are have been terrible on the road and the Indians should be motivated after losing yesterday. They have an advantage in every area and I don't see how they lose this one but it's too pricey, so I would play the RL at around -105.

    Yesterday I was scoping out RRL in games with total above 9, those games ended up going 1-4 but for only -0.98 and the Tigers was a play off of that angle, but I only mocked them SU and they did only win by one. So if add it in with that angle, it actually came out ahead with just a 2-5 record. That's definitely more a long term type angle, but by every calculation I have done so far, it looks like a winner. Some teams like the Athletics, when they win as dogs, they win by 2 or more close to 85% of the time, the last 2 seasons. So if you're going to play a dog, might as well check a stat like that to see if you should just play the RRL. So basically, a lot of times, you can double your potential winnings by going RRL while only adding 15-25% extra risk. There are no high totals worth looking into for today, but something I'm going to keep an eye on.

    So today, I would of prolly played.

    D-Backs -118 and Over 8
    Brewers +140 and Over 8.5
    Indians -1.5 -108

    With leans on

    Dodgers & Over
    Red Sox & Under
    Rockies
    Athletics/Indians Under 8.5


    I also gotta go with the Cavs tonight & series, I think they improved more than the Warriors did.
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-01-17 at 09:31 AM.

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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Thursday 6/1 Projections

    @CLE -210 (-224 69.1%) (2.3-5.3 = 7.6) - U8.5 - (-0.9)
    ARI@ -118 (-139 58.2%) (4.8-3.5 = 8.3) - O8 - (+0.3)
    @TOR -142 (-138 58.0%) (3.1-4.3 = 7.4) - U9 - (-1.6)
    @SEA -131 (-122 55.0%) (4.3-5.2 = 9.5) - O8.5 - (+1.0)
    LAD@ -112 (-117 53.9%) (4.8-4.1 = 8.9) - O8 - (+0.9)
    @LAA -119 (-106 51.4%) (5.0-5.3 = 10.3) - O8.5 - (+1.8)
    BOS@ -119 (-107 51.8%) (4.4-4.1 = 8.5) - U9 - (-0.5)
    MIL@ +140 (-102 50.5%) (4.6-4.5 = 9.1) - O8.5 - (+0.6)

    *My projections in ()
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pitching change for the Angels, projections updated.

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  8. #8
    FUqer
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    Daily SDQL 6/2

    SDQL 6/2

    ALL = Yesterday 1-3 (Total 201-173)
    SU = Yesterday 0-1 (Total 118-94)
    OU = Yesterday 1-2 (Total 83-79)
    ---------------------------------
    SU

    PLAY = The Cubs are 24-0 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

    team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727



    PLAY = The Dodgers are 12-0 SU since Oct 03, 2013 in the first game of a series as a road favorite after a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs.

    team=Dodgers and AF and p:L and p:hits >= 3 * p:runs and FGS and date>=20131003



    FADE = The Phillies are 0-11 SU since Jul 18, 2014 in the first game of a series with rest off a game as a dog in which they lost by 5+ runs.

    team=Phillies and FGS and p and p:margin<=-5 and rest>=1 and date>=20140718


    PLAY: The Blue Jays (76-54 +25.2% ROI)

    division = o:division and HD and line>=100<=145 and SG=2 and p:L and p:HF and WP<50



    PLAY: The Yankees (533-367 +10.7% ROI)

    (p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



    PLAY: The Braves and White Sox (266-244 +20.6% ROI)

    AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2



    PLAY: The Astros (238-144 +9.2% ROI)

    AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7


    PLAY: The Angels and Padres (973-582 +11.8% ROI)

    H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
    ------------

    OU

    UNDER: Rockies/Padres (290-199 +12.7% ROI)

    H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007



    OVER: The Indians are 12-0 OU in Josh Tomlins career when he starts as a favorite and he threw over 100 pitches in his last start.

    team = Indians and starter = Josh Tomlin and F and s:SPT>100



    OVER: The Twins are 19-3 OU when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series.

    team = Twins and line<=120 and p:walks>=5 and p:W and SG > 1 and date >= 20130903



    OVER: (Astros) Teams on the Road are 17-1 OU after scoring 15 or more runs their previous game since 04/22/16.

    p:runs>=15 and A and date>=20160422



    OVER: The Braves are 16-4 OU off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead and 13-1 OU as a dog of plus money.

    team = Braves and p and p:BL > 0 and p:L and date >= 20160803



    OVER: The Braves are 63-31-3 OU since 8/11/16 for +26.3% rOI.

    team=Braves and date>=20160811



    UNDER: The Orioles are 18-43-1 OU at Home since 7/9/16 for +34.3% ROI.

    team = Orioles and H and date >= 20160709



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 73-42-5 OU +20.6% ROI this season.
    (Giants, Yankees, Pirates, Rays, Rockies)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    OVER: Teams on 3 str8 Overs or more. (89-59 +14.0% ROI)
    (Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Rangers)

    date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O


    ________________

    SU

    Cubs
    Dodgers
    Giants

    Braves
    White Sox
    Astros
    Angels
    Padres


    OU

    Yankees/Blue Jays Over
    Red Sox/Orioles Over
    Astros/Rangers Over
    Rays/Mariners Over
    Giants/Phillies Over
    Pirates/Mets Over
    Indians/Royals Over
    Twins/Angels Over
    Braves/Reds Over
    Red Sox/Orioles Under

    ___________________________________

    Database is acting really shady again, I wasn't able to check my large sample sized trends yet, so check back later if interested.
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-02-17 at 02:24 PM. Reason: Additions

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  9. #9
    FUqer
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    I'm feeling comfortable enough to start putting some money on some sides, still some work to do on totals. I never messed with them much my first two seasons so I'm definitely least experienced in those. I'm also going back to unit plays instead of % plays, something I did my first season when I had success. I will start at $50 units with a $2000 bankroll. You'll also notice that I'm much more stricter with my plays as with NHL when I put more money on the line, which I will also think help my success also, it's a lot easier to throw $10-$20 on a play, even though you're not as confident.

    The Rays are my favorite play of the day and top my chart with the Rockies as the top play of the day. I'm showing slight value, but they hold a big edge in starting pitching and an edge in the bullpen and offense for season and past 7 days. The Rays have won 6 of their last 8 overall and 10 of their last 14 on the Road. They had the day off yesterday while the Mariners had to play the Rockies and Jake Odorizzi has made two starts in Seattle and both were shutouts.

    Also showing slight value with the Rockies, and I like their young pitcher and the way he has pitched lately after judging him wrong after his first start or two. The Rockies have all the same advantages as the Rays, just not as big as a starting pitching edge, although my rating for Marquez may be going up again soon. The Rockies have won 86% this season against losing teams giving up only 1.3 rpg and are 19-9 on the Road overall. The reason why I don't quite like this one as much as the Rays is due to the Rockies poor run output on the Road against lefties, 2.43 rpg, Under is 7-0. And the Padres have had decent success at Home vs the Rockies.

    _________________________

    Friday Plays 6/2

    -Rays -104
    -Rockies -112
    _________________________

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  10. #10
    FUqer
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    The Indians and White Sox are showing the most value, but the Indians have struggled at times vs lefties and the Royals park has been one of the most successful parks for left handed pitchers over the last few years. Tomlin is a gas can and Vargas has had a nice season. And no matter what formula I have used, the White Sox always seems to be loved by it, and I'm only really wanting to take dogs that I have winning, like the Brewers yesterday and I don't know why exactly but I really like Fulmer. Holland was 7-0 in team starts vs the Tigers until he lost to freaking Buck Farmer last weekend.

    I'm not playing any totals yet, but I'm keeping an eye out for the ones I have more than a run difference in, especially the Unders. The original formula was hitting at 55% but when I made some adjustments for side value, it seems to be rather high with a lot more Overs than before.

    Rockies/Padres Over
    Nationals/Athletics Over
    Twins/Angels Over
    Astros/Rangers Over
    Red Sox/Orioles Under

    I will also be keeping an eye on RL for dogs with games with high totals. One set of tracking with games with 9.5 or higher totals from my projections and one from the bookmakers totals of 9.5 or higher.

    The Braves are in that position but not really big enough dogs and I didn't research dogs under +110.
    The Orioles are in a good position as Home Dogs shown the highest profits and they won in this spot 2 days ago RRL.

    So I will keep an eye on Orioles RRL -1.5, I explained this angle more in one of the post above.
    If I'm going by my projections, then the Twins would qualify.

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  11. #11
    FUqer
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    I added some more SDQL trends above, database still acting wack.

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  12. #12
    FUqer
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    Added 7 more SDQL trends for Totals above in post #8.

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  13. #13
    FUqer
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    I just read someone else's take on the Rockies game. Here it is.

    "Although the Padres are playing their best baseball in quite a long time, the Rockies continue to lead the division and are 19-9 on the road this season, whereas the Padres are under .500 at their own park. The pitching matchup edge goes to the Rockies as well in this one, with Marquezs being a solid performer of late, with a 2.16 ERA over his last 3 games while Richard has an ERA of 4.29 over his last 3 starts. Here are some other stats that back up our play: Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rockies are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Rockies are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Rockies are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Rockies are 14-6 in their last 20 vs. National League West. Rockies are 9-4 in their last 13 Friday games. Rockies are 4-0 in Marquezs last 4 starts. Rockies are 4-0 in Marquezs last 4 starts on grass. Padres are 5-11 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 games following an off day. Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games. Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Padres are 8-21 in Richards last 29 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Padres are 1-4 in Richards last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Padres are 1-4 in Richards last 5 starts. Padres are 1-4 in Richards last 5 starts on grass. Padres are 1-5 in Richards last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Padres are 1-5 in Richards last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Padres are 0-5 in Richards last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Padres are 0-4 in Richards last 4 starts with 5 days of rest."

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  14. #14
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    The Rays offense led all of MLB with 52 homers in May.

    The Red Sox and Marlins would be the only other two plays I'm considering today, would like to have enough confidence to take the Brewers or White Sox, but I don't. The Astros are up there, but I just don't have a good feeling about them today.

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  15. #15
    FUqer
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    I had to get tomorrow's card done early, I'm getting ready to head out of town, not sure if I'll be back tomorrow or Sunday, depends on weather.

    Saturday Projections

    CLE@ - (-181 64.4%) - (4.7-2.6 = (7.3) - Carrasco/Hammel
    @CHC - (-156 60.9%) - (2.8-4.3 = (7.1) - Lester/Leake
    SF@ -- (-154 60.7%) - (5.1-3.3 = (8.4) - Cueto/Lively
    HOU@ - (-126 55.7%) - (4.4-3.5 = (7.9) - McCullers/Cashner
    WAS@ - (-122 55.0%) - (5.4-4.5 = (9.9) - Ross/Mengden
    @MIA - (-122 55.0%) - (4.1-5.0 = (9.1) - Volquez/Delgado
    BOS@ - (-121 54.8%) - (4.0-3.3 = (7.3) - Price/Bundy
    @CIN - (-128 56.1%) - (4.1-5.2 = (9.3) - Feldman/Dickey
    @NYM - (-118 54.1%) - (4.3-5.0 = (9.3) - Gsellman/Glasnow
    COL@ - (-116 53.7%) - (5.1-4.4 = (9.5) - Chatwood/Chacin
    CWS@ - (-112 52.8%) - (4.4-3.9 = (8.3) - Gonzalez/Zimmerman
    LAD@ - (-110 52.4%) - (4.4-4.0 = (8.4) - Hill/Garza
    TB@ -- (-107 51.6%) - (4.8-4.5 = (9.3) - Cobb/Gaviglio
    @TOR - (-104 51.0%) - (4.6-4.7 = (9.3) - Biagini/Mongomery
    MIN@ - (-102 50.6%) - (4.4-4.3 = (8.7) - Santana/Shoemaker
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-02-17 at 05:06 PM. Reason: Added listed starters

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  16. #16
    FUqer
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    I should of maybe took the Marlins last night and the Red Sox about an hour ago when they dropped to -119 but now they went back up, so pass on both, just two plays tonight and I was able to beat the lines on both barring a late drop off. I'm out, GL tonight!

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  17. #17
    2daBank
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    Gl buddy.

  18. #18
    FUqer
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    Saturday Plays 6/3

    Marlins -104
    Indians -1.5 -108
    Reds -1.5 +137

    Red Sox/Orioles Under 8.5 -103
    Indians/Royals Under 8.5 +103
    Rays/Mariners Over 9 +102
    _________________________

    Played them around 3 AM on Heritage. I'll do SDQL and DOD later when I get home, no time for pick explanations other than my model went 12-2-1 on Totals yesterday, go figure.

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  19. #19
    FUqer
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    Daily sdql

    SDQL 6/3

    ALL = Yesterday 10-5-1 (Total 211-178)
    SU = Yesterday 5-3 (Total 123-97)
    OU = Yesterday 5-2-1 (Total 88-81)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    PLAY: The Cubs are 25-0 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

    team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727



    PLAY: The Cubs are 11-0 SU since Jun 14, 2015 when Jon Lester starts as a home 140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.

    team=Cubs and starter=Jon Lester and H and line<=-140 and s:L and date>=20150614



    PLAY: The Nationals are 13-0 SU since May 4, 2016 as a road favorite after they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter last game.

    team=Nationals and AF and po:BPRA > po:SRA and date>=20160504



    FADE: The Athletics (99-146 -22.1% ROI)

    -140<=line<=120 and p:margin<=-4 and pp:margin<=-4 and op:runs>=8 and H and SG<4 and total<11



    FADE: The Rays (61-95 -30.6% ROI)

    s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5



    PLAY: The Red Sox (81-47 +13.8% ROI)

    A and -110>line>-165 and conference=o:conference and 5.7>=STDSERA>=5.2 and conference=AL



    PLAY: The Royals (166-106 +11.2% ROI)

    H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5



    ------------

    OU

    UNDER: The Orioles are 18-44-1 OU at Home since 7/9/16 for +35.2% ROI.

    team = Orioles and H and date >= 20160709



    UNDER: Red Sox/Orioles (72-50-6 +12.7% ROI)

    A and -110>line>-165 and conference=o:conference and 5.7>=STDSERA>=5.2 and conference=AL



    UNDER: The Indians are 0-20 OU on the road after a game as a road favorite in which they did not hit a home run since Apr 25, 2016.

    team=Indians and A and p:AF and p:HR=0 and date>=20160425



    UNDER: The Rangers are 1-14 OU as a home dog after they struck out their opponent at least ten times and it is not a series opener.

    team = Rangers and SG > 1 and HD and po:SO >= 10 and date >= 20140816



    UNDER: The Blue Jays are 1-14-2 OU since June 17th, 2013 as a home favorite after a game as a dog when their bullpen gave up more than one run.

    team = Blue Jays and HF and p and p:BPRA > 1 and date >= 20130617



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 88-51-5 OU +20.3% ROI this season.
    (Rays)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    OVER: Teams on 3 str8 Overs or more. (91-60 +14.2% ROI)
    (Yankees, Rays)

    date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



    ________________

    SU

    Cubs
    Nationals
    Mariners
    Red Sox
    Royals

    OU

    Rays/Mariners Over
    Red Sox/Orioles Under
    Indians/Royals Under
    Astros/Rangers Under
    ___________________________________

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  20. #20
    FUqer
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    Indians 17/21 road day wins by 2 or more vs Royals 9/13 home day losses by 2 or more.

    Reds 17/21 home day wins by 2 or more vs Braves 19/24 road day losses by 2 or more.
    Dickey also has a terrible record during the day, can't remember exact numbers right now, not sure what RL price is now, but ML has went up 10-15 cents since I placed the bet.

    The Marlins had some good results during day games at Home after a win and D-Backs had bad results in same spot. I had Marlins -122 when I posted my projections yesterday afternoon and was able to get them at -104 last night and now they jumped up over 20 cents, co once I again I'm able to beat the lines consistently with my model, I just got to be patient for results to come. I can live with losses as long as I feel like I made the right choices with good angles.

    I mentioned yesterday I thought my model was coming out high for totals, and then it goes 12-2-1 yesterday, with all 7 overs winning, so maybe it's not so off after all, only time will tell. Anyway I felt comfortable enough to play some totals today and I feel like I made good choices and got some good prices.

    I will be tracking RRL on dogs with totals of 9.5 or higher, White Sox, Rangers, and Braves, it went 0-1 yesterday with the Orioles winning by only 1, but I also track them for games that I have totals with 9.5 or higher projection, that went 1-0 yesterday with the Twins. Definitely something I'm interested in trying in the near future.

    A few plays that didn't make the cut today are..

    White Sox
    Astros/Rangers Under
    Rockies/Padres Over

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  21. #21
    Tomatero
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    Remember my query?? 9 under streak, 9-1 last 10 games.

  22. #22
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomatero View Post
    Remember my query?? 9 under streak, 9-1 last 10 games.
    Nice! I hope you been playing it, I think I missed it on Thursday when it was live, too bad no action for it today.

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  23. #23
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Saturday Plays 6/3

    Marlins -104
    Indians -1.5 -108
    Reds -1.5 +137

    Red Sox/Orioles Under 8.5 -103
    Indians/Royals Under 8.5 +103
    Rays/Mariners Over 9 +102
    _________________________
    Yesterday = 3-3 = -0.06
    ___________________________
    June

    ALL = 3-5 for -2.22
    S/U = 1-2 for -1.16
    O/U = 2-1 for +1.02
    R/L = 0-2 for -2.08
    ---------------
    Dogs = 0-0 for +0.00
    Favs = 1-2 for -1.16
    ----------------
    Over = 1-0 for +1.02
    Under = 1-1 for +0.00
    ___________________________

    The Run Lines got me yesterday or I would of been good. If I would of had a chance to do the SDQL before I made my plays, I doubt I would of played the Indians. They looked good at first with a 3-0 lead and then imploded, and I thought the Reds might make a come back but came up short. How about that Volquez no hitter! I went 2-1 on totals, model went 8-7 on totals, and Overs did good again.

    I tracked White Sox and Braves RRL that went 0-2, now 0-3 since I officially began tracking, but they are 2-1 SU, so might be smart to put split the play up to ML and RRL. I tracked 7 teams RRL in games with totals of 9 or higher going by my model projections and they went 3-4 RRL which is great when the odds for them are usually between +250 and +300. That method is now 6-5 RRL and I'm hoping I found something there.

    Sunday Projections

    @DET -195 (-142 58.7%)
    ATL@ +102 (-105 51.1%)
    BOS@ -185 (-150 60.0%)
    WAS@ -105 (-115 53.4%)
    @CHC -160 (-154 60.1%)
    @PHI +105 (-110 52.4%)
    @SEA -131 (-125 55.6%)
    CLE@ -145 (-116 53.7%)
    @TOR -107 (-103 50.7%)
    @TEX +125 (+111 47.4%)
    LAD@ -144 (-113 53.0%)
    @NYM -116 (-116 53.7%)
    @LAA +110 (-107 51.7%)



    TOTALS

    BOS/BAL - U8 - (3.9-2.6 = 6.5) - (-1.5)
    CLE/KC -- U9 - (4.2-3.6 = 7.8) - (-1.2)
    LAD/MIL - U9.5 - (4.4-3.9 = 8.3) - (-1.2)
    TB/SEA -- O8.5 - (4.2-5.2 = 9.4) - (+0.9)
    CHW/DET - U9 - (3.4-4.8 = 8.2) - (-0.8)
    ATL/CIN - U10 - (4.7-4.5 = 9.2) - (-0.8)
    NYY/TOR - U8 - (3.6-3.7 = 7.3) - (-0.7)
    PIT/NYM - O9 - (4.4-5.1 = 9.5) - (+0.5)
    MIN/LAA - O8.5 - (4.3-4.6 = 8.9) - (+0.4)
    HOU/TEX - O9.5 - (5.2-4.7 = 9.9) - (+0.4)
    WAS/OAK - O8.5 - (4.7-4.1 = 8.8) - (+0.3)
    SF/PHI -- U8.5 - (3.9-4.3 = 8.2) - (-0.3)

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  24. #24
    FUqer
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    SDQL 6/4

    ALL = Yesterday 6-3 (Total 217-181)
    SU = Yesterday 4-1 (Total 127-98)
    OU = Yesterday 2-2 (Total 90-83)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    PLAY: The Cubs are 26-0 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

    team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727



    FADE: The Dodgers (117-228 -30.5% ROI)

    (so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7



    PLAY: The Orioles, Phillies, Tigers (974-583 +11.8% ROI)

    H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



    PLAY: The Tigers (533-368 =10.5% ROI)

    (p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



    PLAY: The Orioles are 11-1 SU since Oct 04, 2015 when Chris Tillman starts in an afternoon game.

    team=Orioles and starter=Chris Tillman and DAY and date>=20151004



    PLAY: The Blue Jays are 13-1 SU since July 28th, 2013 during the regular season at home after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base.

    team=Blue Jays and H and po:LOB<10 and p:L and REG and date>=20130728



    PLAY: The Astros are 11-1 SU since Jun 05, 2016 in the last game of a series off a game as a favorite when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start.

    team=Astros and LGS and p:F and s:W and so:BL > 0 and date>=20160605



    ------------

    OU

    UNDER: The Orioles are 18-45-1 OU at Home since 7/9/16 for +36.0% ROI.

    team = Orioles and H and date >= 20160709



    UNDER: The Angels are 0-14-1 OU in the last game of a series as a dog when playing a team that has a better record - since Aug 07, 2016.

    team=Angels and LGS and D and WP < o:WP and date>=20160807



    OVER: The Cardinals are 11-0 OU when Michael Wacha starts on the road when they lost in his last start since May 09, 2014.

    team=Cardinals and starter=Michael Wacha and A and s:L and date>=20140509



    OVER: The Nationals are 19-4 OU since April 14th 2015 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs on the road.

    team = Nationals and -120 <= line <= 120 and 6 <= po:runs and p:A and date >= 20150414



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 89-51-5 OU +20.8% ROI this season.
    (Nationals, Cardinals)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    OVER: Teams on 3 str8 Overs or more. (92-61 +14.0% ROI)
    (Mariners, Rays, Rockies, Tigers)

    date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O


    ________________

    SU

    Tigers
    Orioles
    Cubs
    Brewers
    Phillies
    Blue Jays
    Astros

    OU

    Cardinals/Cubs Over
    Nationals/Athletics Over
    Rays/Mariners Over
    Red Sox/Orioles Under
    Twins/Angels Over
    Rockies/Padres Over
    White Sox/Tigers Over
    ___________________________________

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  25. #25
    FUqer
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    If anyone else is wondering, obviously I was, here is how the last 10 teams did after a no hitter. Nothing really but before Volquez's next start, I want to look up how pitchers do in their next start after a no hitter.

    Phillies at Braves 4-0
    Giants at Mets 8-5
    Nationals vs Pirates 9-2
    Phillies at Cubs 11-5
    Athletics at Orioles 6-8
    Astros vs Dodgers 3-1
    Giants at Dodgers 4-5
    Nationals at Mets 0-1
    Cubs at Reds 8-1
    Marlins vs D-Backs Today

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  26. #26
    FUqer
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    Sunday Plays 6/4

    -Nationals +104
    -----------------------------
    Roark is undervalued and coming off a couple of really nice starts, Gray isn't the ace he once was. The top guys in the bullpen for the Nationals should be ready to go while to A's used two of their top 2 guys last night. The Nationals top my system for sides and show some decent value as well. NL teams have struggled on he road vs AL teams this season going 16-32, but the NL road teams were bottom of the barrel type teams for the most part. Oakland has been strong at Home this year, but the Nationals have been a very good road team. I had a busy day yesterday so I'm a little behind and have to go through the plays one by one today. Phillies and Mariners are next on the list and then I'll get to totals with Red Sox/Orioles Under on top of my list.
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-04-17 at 11:00 AM.

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  27. #27
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Sunday Plays 6/4

    -Nationals +104
    -Phillies FF +100

    -----------------------------
    I added the Phillies FF, I rate them higher vs lefties and Moore isn't very good, but I don't trust the bullpens or recent usage. Hellickson has been tough to hit and the Phillies apply to one of my favorite SDQL trends.

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  28. #28
    FUqer
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    That look like it for sides, I like Miranda for the Mariners when I watch him, but his numbers don't match the talent yet and he gives up too many homers and the Rays led the MLB for the month of May with 52 homers, so that scares me too much.

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  29. #29
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Sunday Plays 6/4

    -Nationals +104
    -Phillies FF +100

    -Rays/Mariners Over 8 -113

    -----------------------------
    Added one total and that may be all for today, it's my top rated Over for the day and both these teams are on at least 3 str8 Overs, see the above SDQL trend for record. I backed off the Red Sox Under, cuz Tillman can get lit up, and the Dodgers Under because both bullpens usage has been high. I considered the Nationals/Athletics Over, but it's a pass for now. Good Luck today!

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  30. #30
    FUqer
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    Monday Projections

    STL@ (-126 55.8%)
    WAS@ (+115 46.5%)
    MIA@ (+105 48.8%)
    @ATL (-121 54.8%)
    @KC (+100 50.0%)
    TOR@ (+105 48.8%)
    SF@ (-108 52.0%)


    TOTALS

    STL/CIN - (4.8-3.8 = 8.6)
    WAS/LAD - (3.8-4.4 = 8.2)
    MIA/CHC - (4.0-4.2 = 8.2)
    PHI/ATL - (4.3-5.2 = 9.5)
    HOU/KC - (4.1-4.1 = 8.2)
    TOR/OAK - (4.1-4.3 = 8.4)
    SF/MIL - (4.3-4.0 = 8.3)

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  31. #31
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Sunday Plays 6/4

    -Nationals +104
    -Phillies FF +100

    -
    Rays/Mariners Over 8 -113
    -----------------------------
    2-0-1 = +2.04
    ___________________________

    June

    ALL = 5-5 for -0.18
    S/U = 3-2 for +0.88
    O/U = 2-1 for +1.02
    R/L = 0-2 for -2.08
    ---------------
    Dogs = 2-0 for +2.04
    Favs = 1-2 for -1.16
    ----------------
    Over = 1-0 for +1.02
    Under = 1-1 for +0.00
    ___________________________

    So glad I decided on the Over 8, instead of being greedy and going for + money with 8.5.

    I'm really liking Oakland so far for tomorrow, maybe the Marlins and Braves. Braves are my systems top play by quite a bit, but I like the match-up for Oakland. The Blue Jays have struggled vs lefties while the A's have been pretty good and they've especially been good at home. Happ has been prone to the long ball, and Manaea has been solid so far. I'm hoping the line remains playable until I do the SDQL later and some deeper research.

    Nothing really standing out as far as totals yet, my projections were all real close to what the line is.

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  32. #32
    2daBank
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    I feel like ya gotta reevaluate jays vs lefties with Donaldson and tulo back in their lineup. Oakland hitters w no success vs happ at all, 2 xbh in 76 abs! Second start off dl I like his chances to hold A's down. I do like a's starter as well tho, just think Jays getting plus money tough to pass up as they playing pretty good ball with their lineup back in tact.. at least one of us win!

  33. #33
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I feel like ya gotta reevaluate jays vs lefties with Donaldson and tulo back in their lineup. Oakland hitters w no success vs happ at all, 2 xbh in 76 abs! Second start off dl I like his chances to hold A's down. I do like a's starter as well tho, just think Jays getting plus money tough to pass up as they playing pretty good ball with their lineup back in tact.. at least one of us win!
    That's exactly why I haven't played it yet, I wanted to look into that, I know they have struggled vs lefties so far, but wanted to check to see if missing those guys was a big reason why. If I do play it, it might have to be FF. I appreciate the tips though, I have learned a few things from you.

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  34. #34
    FUqer
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    SDQL 6/5

    ALL = Yesterday 10-4 (Total 227-185)
    SU = Yesterday 6-1 (Total 133-99)
    OU = Yesterday 4-3 (Total 94-86)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    PLAY: The Dodgers are 22-4 SU at home after a loss in which they did not score after the third inning.

    team = Dodgers and H and p:S3 = p:runs and p:L and date>=20140613



    ------------

    OU

    UNDER: Nationals/Dodgers (385-221 +20.4% ROI)

    H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and pu margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < ou streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31



    OVER: The Nationals are 20-4 OU since April 14th 2015 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs on the road.

    team = Nationals and -120 <= line <= 120 and 6 <= po:runs and p:A and date >= 20150414



    OVER: The Braves are 18-2 OU at home after they allowed 12-plus hits.

    team = Braves and H and 12 <= po:hits and date >= 20160612




    UNDER
    : Jeff Samardzija is 4-20-1 OU since 7/24/16.

    starter=Jeff Samardzija and date>=20160724



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 91-51-5 OU +21.7% ROI this season.
    (Nationals, Marlins, Cardinals)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    OVER: Teams on 3 str8 Overs or more. (93-64 +12.6% ROI)
    (Athletics, Nationals)

    date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



    ________________

    SU

    Dodgers

    OU

    Nationals/Dodgers Over
    Marlins/Cubs Over
    Cardinals/Reds Over
    Phillies/Braves Over
    Giants/Brewers Under
    Blue Jays/Athletics Over
    ___________________________________

    Not included:

    The Athletics are 0-16 RL as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

    team = Athletics and F and p:HF and po:LOB < 10 and date >= 20140808


    SU: 3-13 (-1.81, 18.8%) avg line: -141.1 / 128.2 on / against: -$1,446 / +$1,308 ROI: -63.3% / +81.6%
    RL: 0-16 (-3.31, 0.0%) avg line: 153.3 / -166.8 on / against: -$1,600 / +$1,600 ROI: -100.0% / +59.9%

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts

    BTP
    Week 1
    3-2-0 109 pts


  35. #35
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,375
    Betpoints: 1654

    Monday Plays 6/5

    -Nationals +120
    _________________________

    The Dodgers bullpen threw 4+ innings in 4 str8 games and Ryu doesn't usually make it to the 6th inning.
    The Nationals are traveling from Oakland while the Dodgers coming from Wisconsin.
    Dodgers have been surprisingly good vs LHP this year, but I think they will regress going by last seasons terrible numbers. The Nationals are 23-8 in night games while the Dodgers are 23-17.

    The Brewers interest me a little because the Giants are last in the MLB in home runs vs RHP and they are playing in home run park against some good lefties who can smash it. My only problem is the status of the Brewers bullpen, so if I do it would have to be FF only.

    I still can't pull the trigger on the Braves even though the price dropped. Colon has been pretty bad this year, even though he has been pretty good vs the Phillies in his career.

    Seems like everyone is against me on the Athletics and I'm not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing, either way I'm not playing until I build a little more confidence.

    The Cardinals should crush the Reds today.

    Maybe interested in the Marlins still, even though price is losing value quickly and I'm still kind of "blah" on totals for the day.

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts

    BTP
    Week 1
    3-2-0 109 pts


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