In the case of the first two we have shutout capable pitchers at big dog prices. Keuchel-Astros simply do not have a 63.8% probability of winning so that their backers can earn 57 cents on the dollar of risk. Darvish-Rangers do not show me that kind of advantage either.
Hernandez-Nolasco is much closer to a true line with two exceptions; Felix has not looked like the old Felix for quite some time and the Mariners, after a great ST start, simply are not hitting the ball. Nolasco made somewhat of a comeback last year with the Angels and, on any given day, can give the Mariners all they want.