If the ALCS is Yanks/Sox

[Razz]

Are the Yankees going to be big favorites?

The Yanks' ace is laying 130 at Fenway to the Sox's ace?
The Yanks' #2/3 was laying 120 at Fenway to the Sox's #2/3?
I guess the other Yanks' #2/3 will be favored against the other Sox's #2/3 at Fenway Sunday night.
And Mussina or Hughes would almost certainly be favored at Fenway against Wakefield.

So, as far as I can tell, the Yankees are going to be small favorites in all road games are healthy favorites in all home games. Can I just ask, why?

I'm not saying they should be big favorites by any means. I thought tonight's line was ridiculous, and I think tomorrow's line is ridiculous as well. Both games were, for me, games in which the Yankees were slight underdogs to win.

But it seems the oddsmakers feel the Yankees are the blatantly superior team.

Personally, I'd make it -110 for both in a 7-game series that Boston had the HFA, because there's no denying that the Yankees have been the better team in recent months, and at this point, they have at least as good a pitching staff and a better lineup. But are we going to see a series line like NYY -160? In a road series?

[rjt721]

I have to say, I'm shocked by Saturday's line. I still can't even consider taking Boston + given that Beckett's yet to pitch a good game against the Yanks in his time with the Sox, but I was fully expecting a -105/-105 type game, in which case I was prepared to make the Yanks a good-sized play tomorrow. I think Manny's absence (13/22 against Wang) is a factor in NY being this big of a fave, but even still -130 seems steep with Beckett, who's likely to win the Cy, pitching at home.

I think the belief that Boston's pretty much secured a postseason berth, while the Yanks are still in somewhat of a race for the wild card w/ Detroit might also be a factor, as the oddsmakers could give added weight to the notion that the game's more important for NY.

I definitely don't think the Yanks will be -160 in a potential ALCS matchup, but if the Sox get swept again this weekend - giving NY 7 straight wins this season v. Boston, a NYY -125/-130 line wouldn't completely shock me, although -110/-110 would probably be more accurate, as I'd be shocked if an ALCS matchup between these two didn't go 7 games.

By the way, why does Giambi ever play the field? I know it's nice having his bat in the lineup, but I can't recall a player being more of a liability at 1B in quite some time.

Perfect scenario for tomorrow: tie game in the late innings w/ Buchholz and Joba on the hill.

[EJandV]

Really , common sense from all angles the line should be -110 for both teams on sat . Wang has done better his last 3 against rsox than beckett has done against yanks is the only possible reasoning for the -128 on yanks . NOTE : exactly this time last year on saturday was game 1 of dh the rsox at yanks >>>>>>>> was beckett vs wang . Rsox won 5 - 2 . Note : the yankees were - 173 o/u 9.5 start time : 1:20 pm. I am going to thread this it just may be a repeat result .

[Razz]

I have to say, I'm shocked by Saturday's line. I still can't even consider taking Boston + given that Beckett's yet to pitch a good game against the Yanks in his time with the Sox, but I was fully expecting a -105/-105 type game, in which case I was prepared to make the Yanks a good-sized play tomorrow. I think Manny's absence (13/22 against Wang) is a factor in NY being this big of a fave, but even still -130 seems steep with Beckett, who's likely to win the Cy, pitching at home.

I think the belief that Boston's pretty much secured a postseason berth, while the Yanks are still in somewhat of a race for the wild card w/ Detroit might also be a factor, as the oddsmakers could give added weight to the notion that the game's more important for NY.

I definitely don't think the Yanks will be -160 in a potential ALCS matchup, but if the Sox get swept again this weekend - giving NY 7 straight wins this season v. Boston, a NYY -125/-130 line wouldn't completely shock me, although -110/-110 would probably be more accurate, as I'd be shocked if an ALCS matchup between these two didn't go 7 games.

By the way, why does Giambi ever play the field? I know it's nice having his bat in the lineup, but I can't recall a player being more of a liability at 1B in quite some time.

Perfect scenario for tomorrow: tie game in the late innings w/ Buchholz and Joba on the hill.

That may be, but I'd say tomorrow's game is the most important for Boston to date. I mean, I don't know the Boston pulse like you do, but for them to not win the division would be catastrophic I would think.

I don't know a whole lot about why Giambi plays in the field.

Personally, I think CC is a pretty good bet to win the Cy, but if either Wang or Beckett is brilliant tomorrow, and gets to 19 wins, I'd move him right along side CC.

Isn't under the play tomorrow?

[EJandV]

I dont really like an under 9 in daytime games esp at what to me is a hitters ballpark with as always a pen full of potential lemon pitchers comin in .... 2 of the most potent offenses in baseball . If one of the starters is no good then 9 is a low total . Same scenario over and over but is also in sept which really makes me stay off an under in the daytime .

[rjt721]

That may be, but I'd say tomorrow's game is the most important for Boston to date. I mean, I don't know the Boston pulse like you do, but for them to not win the division would be catastrophic I would think.

Yeah, no doubt. Coming into this series, Boston basically just needed to take 1 to wrap-up the division, so if they lose Saturday, the pressure will be pretty intense to win Sunday night, especially considering a loss tomorrow would make it 6 straight losses to NY.

Personally, I think CC is a pretty good bet to win the Cy, but if either Wang or Beckett is brilliant tomorrow, and gets to 19 wins, I'd move him right along side CC.

I think Beckett's the favorite (barring an implosion tomorrow, which wouldn't surprise me) if for nothing else the fact he plays in a much bigger market.

Isn't under the play tomorrow?

Was actually leaning over, although there's no way I'm laying -130 at 9. I'll probably pass, though, as the late afternoon start and the shadows at Fenway should make it pretty difficult for the hitters.

[pico]

That may be, but I'd say tomorrow's game is the most important for Boston to date. I mean, I don't know the Boston pulse like you do, but for them to not win the division would be catastrophic I would think.

I don't know a whole lot about why Giambi plays in the field.

Personally, I think CC is a pretty good bet to win the Cy, but if either Wang or Beckett is brilliant tomorrow, and gets to 19 wins, I'd move him right along side CC.

Isn't under the play tomorrow?

wang and beckett is going to be a hella of matchup. i don't know whether to watch micihgan game or yankees game. i really want them both to win. **** the red soxs. tonight is a great night because i turned off the tv until one of my friend called me and told me about the comeback.

go blue and go yankees.

[Razz]

Yeah, and neither pitcher has really had a whole lot of success with the key hitters in the opposing lineup, but I really think one of these guys, or both, will turn in a great effort tomorrow.

I'm not playing it, because A) I have enough on my plate already, B) Rooting for the Yankees is enough of a sweat for the game, and C) I've been extremely selective in my baseball betting the past couple weeks, playing four or five games a week, but I really think under is the only bet worth making here.

Well, good luck with whatever you all play in this game - unless it's Boston - I'm out.

[pico]

Sat 9/15 969 New York Yankees
C. Wang * *-128 C. Wang must start *
12:55 PM 970 Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett * *+120 J. Beckett must start *

yankees is a minor favorite tomorrow. i am not sure i want to bet on it though. probably just going to watch the game.

[Razz]

I think Manny's absence (13/22 against Wang) is a factor in NY being this big of a fave

Not that I disagree, because obviously the name Manny Ramirez resonates a lot more than the name Eric Hinske, but EH's numbers (10-22, 6 XB hits) are pretty comparable with MR's (13-22, 2 XB hits) - I guess EH will be playing, I can't imagine why he wouldn't be with those numbers, no matter what Ellsbury's future may be.

[tacomax]

So, as far as I can tell, the Yankees are going to be small favorites in all road games are healthy favorites in all home games. Can I just ask, why?

Because the public will always back the Yankees and the books adjust their lines to compensate. The suggestion that rjt721 put forward in that Boston are pretty much assured a post-season place (barring a catastrophe) is also a factor.

[tacomax]

I don't know a whole lot about why Giambi plays in the field.

Presumably, because of his recent injuries, NYY think he's better off as a DH. But, having said that, anyone could play 1B and, after tonight's performance Giambi should be playing as a DH and Damon could be shifted into 1B.

[Razz]

I actually have been impressed with Damon's play in LF when he gets the chance.

[Razz]

Because the public will always back the Yankees and the books adjust their lines to compensate. The suggestion that rjt721 put forward in that Boston are pretty much assured a post-season place (barring a catastrophe) is also a factor.

I don't really but that. The second part is perhaps a factor, Manny being out is a factor, but the public doesn't play the Yankees any more than the Red Sox.

[BatemanPatrickl]

Presumably, because of his recent injuries, NYY think he's better off as a DH. But, having said that, anyone could play 1B and, after tonight's performance Giambi should be playing as a DH and Damon could be shifted into 1B.

Have you ever played baseball before? 1B is not an easy position to play. That said, Giambi would be better as a DH BUT 1B is not an easy position.