betting heavy favorites

[Power Play]

for experienced handicappers: is it ever advisable to bet heavy favorites in baseball? like over -200

[PAPSMEAR]

not advisable in any sport is it ?...unless living on the streets and fighting off pigeons for the cheese on the pizza boxes is your thing

[EXhoosier10]

There is extra vig on those games (usually 20+ cents as opposed to 10). So ya, it's harder to win. I wouldn't advise it.

However, I wonder what record -200 favs have when they aren't the yankees/red sox/cubs. I'd guess those big market teams push the lines up a little bit and you get even less value based on the fact that they are popular bets. Either way, still wouldn't advise it.

[The Investor]

yes if the line should be (-2.50)
no if the line should be (-1.50)

[PAPSMEAR]

yes if the line should be (-2.50)
no if the line should be (-1.50)

true but vegas are not in the habit of doing this

[jhack704]

no man, not only money line, your better off playing the runline if there is a big favorite. only 10% of games has the favorite winning by one. the other 90% is favs winning by at least 2 or the underdog winning outright, so take it for whats it worth. you will get the fav to win by one here and there but 10% is a low enough number that its shouldnt be that big of a worry

[pinnerpsk]

no man, not only money line, your better off playing the runline if there is a big favorite. only 10% of games has the favorite winning by one. the other 90% is favs winning by at least 2 or the underdog winning outright, so take it for whats it worth. you will get the fav to win by one here and there but 10% is a low enough number that its shouldnt be that big of a worry

I agree. Happened all the time last year.

[jhack704]

i rather lay 100-135 run line and lose that than lay 230+ on money line and have that lose! you can find value on favs on moneyline below the 200 mark

[Ace_of_Spades]

RL are tough, and sometimes the bullpen lets a lead wittle down to a one run win. Taking heavy faves is ok in combos.

[DeluxeLiner]

go where the value is...usually it's the dog, but that doesnt work as well as it used to

[Power Play]

what do you guys think of this method: dogs, runline, or no play. Are there any cons in totally disregarding favorite moneyline?

[warriorfan707]

Who just said the favorites only win by 1 10% of the time? Do you just enjoy giving out false information?

If so get the f out of here

[jhack704]

Who just said the favorites only win by 1 10% of the time? Do you just enjoy giving out false information?

If so get the f out of here

i did, i said favs win the game by at least 2 runs or teh underdogs win outright, i said only 10% of the time the fav win bys one run!! how is that not true, prove me wrong then

[whatsgood5]

Is not profitable if done a lot, but money can be made if you pick and choose the right spots to do it.

[whatsgood5]

Who just said the favorites only win by 1 10% of the time? Do you just enjoy giving out false information? If so get the f out of here

i did, i said favs win the game by at least 2 runs or teh underdogs win outright, i said only 10% of the time the fav win bys one run!! how is that not true, prove me wrong then

[Bob Loblaw]

yes if the line should be (-2.50)
no if the line should be (-1.50)

this

[bigbank]

never discount any play. the key is to find the value.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Bottom line, find a fukin winner, no matter the line, betting is betting, winning is winning. Value means sh!t if it doesn't win.

[Rainman328]

i hate taking runlines. i prefer betting on things that the players actually care about (which is winning in general). Heavy lines don't bother me, either

[dodger33]

i wouldn't suggest taking heavy chalks on a regular basis but every once in a while you can get good value on them.

[TheLock]

I was under the impression that roughly 31% of games are decided by 1 run.

[Bones402]

I wouldnt do it its just not a good value play the run line instead

[warriorfan707]

i did, i said favs win the game by at least 2 runs or teh underdogs win outright, i said only 10% of the time the fav win bys one run!! how is that not true, prove me wrong then

The favorites win by 1 run in baseball more than 10% of the time.

FACT

[jhack704]

i was under the impression that roughly 31% of games are decided by 1 run.

you are right but im sayin the favorite, just the favorite either wins by 2 or loses outright, the 10% im refering to is the percentage of teh favorite winning by only 1 run!!!

[jhack704]

the favorites win by 1 run in baseball more than 10% of the time.

Fact

ok then man, prove ite, so some facts proving me wrong sine you say it is a fact!

[Dexter]

ok then man, prove ite, so some facts proving me wrong sine you say it is a fact!

dude....you made the original post so where is your facts to back up your claim? i read your post and right away said there is no way in hell that is true based on me just watching games/results from last year.

you make betting run lines sound easy - far from it....

[EXhoosier10]

From my data that I collected last year (I'm guessing 70-75% of it is correct), I have away favorites winning by 1 run 10.3% of the time while home favorites won by 1 run 15.7% of the time.

Mind you, the way I imported data last year wasn't perfect, so some of my data is for sure wrong, but i'm guessing my numbers are right give or take +-3%. I have nearly twice as many home favs as away favs, so I'm thinking it was something like 12+-3% of the time, favs won by 1+ runs. I'm not sure about other years though.

[jhack704]

From my data that I collected last year (I'm guessing 70-75% of it is correct), I have away favorites winning by 1 run 10.3% of the time while home favorites won by 1 run 15.7% of the time.

Mind you, the way I imported data last year wasn't perfect, so some of my data is for sure wrong, but i'm guessing my numbers are right give or take +-3%. I have nearly twice as many home favs as away favs, so I'm thinking it was something like 12+-3% of the time, favs won by 1+ runs. I'm not sure about other years though.

thank you! see guys found someone else to back me up. i dont know what number warrior think it is but im telling you its about 10% or in this case around there like i said

[jhack704]

dude....you made the original post so where is your facts to back up your claim? i read your post and right away said there is no way in hell that is true based on me just watching games/results from last year.

you make betting run lines sound easy - far from it....

im not saying it is easy by any means. im just stating the facts i have seen and heard of and trying to give insight on games thats all!

[EXhoosier10]

no problem. If I remember, I'll post back in here my final numbers at the end of the season

[nickmanning214]

About 30% of all MLB games are 1 run games, so I'd guess about 20% of MLB games are 1 run games where the favorite wins.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/?ymd=20081027

[kisado]

Simply. No.

At least take the RL would be advice. No way you make money in the long run betting -200 chalk in baseball.