Betting on umpires

[Rainman328]

so i've stumbled upon some websites that give statistics for umpires. Anyone think betting over/under on umpire statistics is reliable? it's seems iffy to me, whereas I can't tell if things are statistically significant or just a fluke

[smitch124]

I wouldn't bet on a total solely on the ump but if I have a lean and an ump that has a tendency to favor the same side that may push me to a bet.

[smallball]

i know of a few people that make a killing strictly looking at umpire tendencies, especially certain umpires that have proven year in year out to call a lot of strikes, or not.

[Rainman328]

seems like a potential gold mine to me. i love finding tendencies the public is barely aware of, and umpires most certainly falls in that category. Any ideas on strategy for betting based on umpire tendencies (obviously i'm looking for something a little more than the obvious)?

[Shortstop]

I very seldom, if ever, pay attention to the umpiring crew. In my opinion it doesn't mean much.

[Zou_fan]

I would think that betting exclusively based on umpire tendencies wouldn't be enough in itself to be profitable, but I could certainly see it making a difference and having a place as part of a larger model.

[FadeCommonSense]

Might be a great system. I do know there are a few umpires that have a tight strike zone.

[Shortstop]

Might be a great system. I do know there are a few umpires that have a tight strike zone.

Every team, player and coach knows the umpires and their tendencies way better than we do.

Therefore, all pitchers, catchers and hitters will adjust their approach accordingly.

I'm not convinced that knowing the umpiring crew has any significance whatsoever.

[Bob Loblaw]

Absolutely. The home plate ump is the single biggest key to capping a game for me. They change the game, plain and simple.

Right now, my favorites are...

*I don't have Hirschbecks full stats. He was out of baseball for a bit but I know he's had an under past and he didn't disappoint in his return in 2009

John Hirschbeck
2009 6-17 o/u 8.2 rpg

Jim Reynolds
2009 18-11 o/u 9.7 rpg
2008 18-10 o/u 10.2 rpg
2007 21-13 o/u 10.5 rpg

Mark Carlson
2009 12-21 o/u 8.1 rpg
2008 0-1 o/u 5.0 rpg
2007 14-20 o/u 8.9 rpg
2006 15-17 o/u 9.1 rpg
2005 14-21 o/u 8.0 rpg
2004 13-22 o/u 8.9 rpg

Andrew Fletcher
2009 10-21 o/u 8.3 rpg
2008 11-17 o/u 8.1 rpg
2007 4-13 o/u 7.2 rpg

Mike Estabrook
2009 9-13 o/u 8.6 rpg
2008 7-15 o/u 8.2 rpg
2007 0-4 o/u 5.3 rpg

Marty Foster
2009 11-17 o/u 8.8 rpg
2008 11-21 o/u 8.4 rpg
2007 13-17 o/u 9.9 rpg
2006 18-12 o/u 11.1 rpg
2005 11-19 o/u 8.3 rpg
2004 12-21 o/u 9.5 rpg

Bill Hohn
2009 11-12 o/u 8.7 rpg
2008 7-15 o/u 7.0 rpg
2007 2-1 o/u 9.7 rpg
2006 0-0 o/u 0.0 rpg
2005 13-21 o/u 8.7 rpg

------

A guy that had an "off" year to keep an eye on for a possible rebound...

Jeff Nelson
2009 22-11 o/u 10.6 rpg
2008 14-19 o/u 8.5 rpg
2007 4-15 o/u 5.9 rpg
2006 12-20 o/u 9.2 rpg
2005 16-15 o/u 8.9 rpg
2004 13-18 o/u 8.8 rpg
2003 11-22 o/u 7.4 rpg

------

Some guys that are quickly making a run for my favorite umps list. I only have their '09 right now.

Ted Barrett
2009 13-21 o/u 8.3 rpg

Tim McClelland
20-14 o/u 11.1 rpg

Bill Miller
10-23 o/u 8.9 rpg

Randy Marsh
2009 20-12 10.2 rpg

Brian Runge
2009 6-16 o/u 7.9 rpg

Tim Tschida
2009 18-12 o/u 11.3 rpg

Scott Barry
2009 14-24 o/u 8.5 rpg

There's a lot of umps out there but these are the guys I look out for right now

[Bob Loblaw]

Every team, player and coach knows the umpires and their tendencies way better than we do.

Therefore, all pitchers, catchers and hitters will adjust their approach accordingly.

I'm not convinced that knowing the umpiring crew has any significance whatsoever.

It sure does. Watch a Hirschbeck game and then watch a McClelland game and you will see the difference. If a pitcher gets a Hirschbeck he will live on those extended corners all game making it extremely difficult for the hitter giving the under a major advantage. If a pitcher gets a McClelland he will make the pitcher get it over the plate if he wants strikes called. This brings the ball closer to the hitters zone giving a major advantage to the hitter and the over.

Some games will be completely out of the umps hands when a pitcher is dealing or has nothing but over the course of the season its a good thing to know these umpire tendencies.

[Shortstop]

Bob, if you're still around in April, make a season long thread with your O/U's based on your umpire stats and give us some winners.

This would be very interesting.

[dmtrader]

Yes, this would be a very interesting thread to follow.

[Willie Bee]

Should be factored into the mix no differently than any other statistic. I keep a file on umps with notes from whan I'm watching them about their strike zones: Do they pinch the corner, do they call the low strike, does their zone move around and become inconsistent. But basing a bet SOLELY on who is behind the mask calling pitches? Yikes!

If someone comes up and tells you Joe Blow is calling the game, the total is 9½, Over -110, you look in your little book and see Joe Blow is 10-4 to the Over this year, average runs 10.2, and then you lay your money down only to discover later that it's Roy Halladay facing Johan Santana??? No sir, can't sell me on that.

It's just one more factor in the decision-making process, and it falls well down the order for me behind who is pitching, how they pitch in that park historically, what hitters give them fits or do they own, how are both pitchers and their offenses trending, the weather, etc.

[Rainman328]

well i think we would all agree that betting blindly on umpires would be a little silly. But as long as everything else is even, and an ump is favoring one side, i think using that Most Valuable Umpire list above would be a very consistently profitable betting angle.

[Rainman328]

check this out ---> http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input...der_umpire.htm

some of your numbers are a little different, but i don't mind. Some of your 2009 prospects seem like they can be added on to your favorites list

[Bob Loblaw]

check this out ---> http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input...der_umpire.htm some of your numbers are a little different, but i don't mind. Some of your 2009 prospects seem like they can be added on to your favorites list

good stuff

when covers updates their ump page we can go back 10 years or so but in the meantime that site will work just fine

[PAPSMEAR]

upms on the plate that have a bias towards one particular side can't hurt in giving you an edge particularly where the sides are relatively even

[dwaechte]

Umpire trends are generally already exploited.

[Rainman328]

i still don't think they are exploited enough to make it no longer worth considering. This is all i got for a surefire advantage when looking at O/U's. Does anyone have anything else worth considering when it comes to O/U's?

[kisado]

No way, I would base my entire play on who the hell is umping the game. Sure, some trends do look rock-solid but each game is an individual situation. Sometimes, I don't even look at who's umping, there are so many other variables to baseball betting.

[EXhoosier10]

would you base your bet on who the starting pitcher is? You shouldn't. If a the yankees haven't scored arun in 5 games and Sabathia is on the mound at -200, would you take the yankees?

You should always lookat more than one angle when making a bet