SBR's Dustin Saracini is back in action with his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Monday, June 30th. He looks to improve on his 35-24 (+6.04) NRFI record this season.
Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox (-150 at FanDuel)
Chase Burns (5.40 ERA) vs. Garrett Crochet (2.06 ERA)
NRFI record: Reds (43-41) vs. Red Sox (36-49)
"This is by far the most compelling matchup on the slate, so of course I'm featuring it as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Burns was absolutely locked in during his start against the Yankees - until the wheels somewhat fell off in the fourth. Burns did look incredible in his debut, though. His fastball and slider are plus-plus, which are the two pitches that led the way for his eight-strikeout performances across his five innings of work. The Red Sox haven't seen his repetorie, and you better believe it's going to take a few ABs to get dialed in against him. We just need three outs from the kid.
On the other side, we're back to the well in Crochet - he's made us a lot of money this season. The Reds are hitting .100 against the lefty and are striking out at a 60% rate. Yup, we'll take that to the bank."
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-115 at DraftKings)
Logan Webb (2.52 ERA) vs. Ryne Nelson (3.71 ERA)
NRFI record: Giants (40-44) vs. Diamondbacks (36-47)
"We love NRFI value in this household, and we love Logan Webb - so this seems like a perfect marriage for tonight.
Over his career, Webb has absolutely dominated the Diamondbacks, so he's an easy play as part of our best NRFI bets today. Across 134 plate appearances (yes, we love large sample sizes, too), the DBacks own just a .239 xwOBA and are hitting just .198 against Webb. This means the projected top three of Geraldo Perdomo (2-for-18), Ketel Marte (5-for-24), and Pavin Smith (1-for-5) will get all the smoke.
Now the main question here is Ryne Nelson - can he do enough to get us over the finish line? While his numbers aren't incredible against the Giants, we're riding a scorching-hot hand right now. Nelson has allowed just two earned runs across his last 15 2/3 innings of work, and has been virtually unhittable as of late. I love the play, I love the value, let's ride."
Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox (-150 at FanDuel)
Chase Burns (5.40 ERA) vs. Garrett Crochet (2.06 ERA)
NRFI record: Reds (43-41) vs. Red Sox (36-49)
"This is by far the most compelling matchup on the slate, so of course I'm featuring it as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Burns was absolutely locked in during his start against the Yankees - until the wheels somewhat fell off in the fourth. Burns did look incredible in his debut, though. His fastball and slider are plus-plus, which are the two pitches that led the way for his eight-strikeout performances across his five innings of work. The Red Sox haven't seen his repetorie, and you better believe it's going to take a few ABs to get dialed in against him. We just need three outs from the kid.
On the other side, we're back to the well in Crochet - he's made us a lot of money this season. The Reds are hitting .100 against the lefty and are striking out at a 60% rate. Yup, we'll take that to the bank."
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-115 at DraftKings)
Logan Webb (2.52 ERA) vs. Ryne Nelson (3.71 ERA)
NRFI record: Giants (40-44) vs. Diamondbacks (36-47)
"We love NRFI value in this household, and we love Logan Webb - so this seems like a perfect marriage for tonight.
Over his career, Webb has absolutely dominated the Diamondbacks, so he's an easy play as part of our best NRFI bets today. Across 134 plate appearances (yes, we love large sample sizes, too), the DBacks own just a .239 xwOBA and are hitting just .198 against Webb. This means the projected top three of Geraldo Perdomo (2-for-18), Ketel Marte (5-for-24), and Pavin Smith (1-for-5) will get all the smoke.
Now the main question here is Ryne Nelson - can he do enough to get us over the finish line? While his numbers aren't incredible against the Giants, we're riding a scorching-hot hand right now. Nelson has allowed just two earned runs across his last 15 2/3 innings of work, and has been virtually unhittable as of late. I love the play, I love the value, let's ride."