CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

You done with totals for the year? Seems you are due!

Nope-just waiting until the weather cools down a bit. My 2 favorite totals numbers are having serious mixed results right now for some reason

[atthehalf]

In 2025 MLB favorites -200 or shorter are 213-83 SU (72%) this season, winning by 2.05 RPG on average. Strongest chalk win-rate in a decade.

So that explains why I am losing these one run games

[matt711]

You done with totals for the year? Seems you are due!

[atthehalf]

Also

A's+109 Bido 2 UNITS

Morton has really bad numbers vs the A's lineup and Bido has a sterling .154 AVG against for the Tigers

[atthehalf]

ALL FOR 2 UNITS

Fathers-101 Cease
Buccos+114 Keller
Rays+104 Baz
Halos-108 Kikuchi
Nats+157 Gore
Orioles-103 Bradish
Snakes+138 Pfaadt
Twinkies+155 Ober
Pale Hose-101 Perez

[atthehalf]

Damn...sometimes you can do everything right and still end up wrong-the Orioles stranded 6 base runners and that was essentially it. The public was on the Red Sox HARD too...

Welp be back in a few hours with a plan to get some of it back slowly-what a piss off-I lost a LOT of money on this one.

Anyway I am definitely going to be on the Orioles again today

My CRUMBS POD Streamer is Kyle Bradish (Orioles) I'm stoked to watch the TJS return of Bradish, who has displayed the legit slider in the minors and the 94 mph cutter (the four-seamer has negative horizontal movement, y'all. IT'S A CUTTER). With the Sawx away from Fenway and a pitch count well above 80, I'm awfully tempted to break the rule of taking pitchers fresh off the rehab. At any rate, he should be rostered everywhere for starts after this one. He only has 13% rostership so this will definitely scoop some of what I lost back immediately should he do well enough to get me my 5/3/1/K/W

[atthehalf]

There's only been one other PC Play and it was for the Valkyries and you saw what happened with that one

[atthehalf]

PC Play (25 UNITS)

Orioles+100 Sugano

This is the only move for today because of the size of the amount of the stake

[atthehalf]

Purchase Orders ALL FOR 3 UNITS

Astronuats+113
A's+145
Red Sox+140
Pale Hose-101
Guardians+113

[matt711]

Any purchase orders for Sunday?

[atthehalf]

Guardians+115 Allen 3 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Looking into some more + money dogs in MLB

[atthehalf]

Fresno State+14

[atthehalf]

Just an idle thought out loud. The Bombers are in some serious trouble this season if they think that they will simply outslug teams and win that division

[atthehalf]

Damned 1 run losses....it's like a plague this season for me.. anyway more dogs today

Fish ML +118 (3 UNITS)
Fathers ML +113 (3 UNITS)
Halos ML +122 (3 UNITS)
A's ML +145 (3 UNITS)

[atthehalf]

Football is in the air!

UNLV-17.5 1st half

[atthehalf]

Expect another load of underdogs again tomorrow-I may elect to go with Crochet and Abbott however just to mix in a few aces-we'll see

[atthehalf]

Oh my CRUMBS POD for today is

Zebby Matthews (Twinkies) with only 14 rostership-and a clear stream against he Pale Hose lineup

[atthehalf]

Complete with my baseballs and everything LOL! I think that I am gonna do away with vigorous the rest of the way this year as much as possible y'all

Nats ML +157 (1 UNIT)
Red Sox ML +158 (1 UNIT)
Royals ML +133 (3 UNITS)
Fish ML +138 (3 UNITS)
Cardinals ML +118 (3 UNITS)
Halos ML +128 (3 UNITS)
Red Leggins ML +112 (3 UNITS)
Fathers ML +101 (3 UNITS)
A's ML +183 (1 UNIT)

[atthehalf]

Loading up on underdogs today-stay thirsty my friends

[atthehalf]

That will do it for today-check y'all out tomorrow

[atthehalf]

The Nats are piddling about a bit...anyway

Orioles-118 Young 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Nats+110 Gore 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

also

bobby witt jr under 2.5 hits/runs/rbi

[atthehalf]

At 4:00


Giants+157 Verlander 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Running a bit late but uh..

Brews+115 Priester 3 UNITS

Wanderers/Royals UNDER 9 Corbin/Lorenzen 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

huge streams of money on the Bombers-therefor

Rays-117 Rasmussen 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

The line dropped all the way down to -140 after his warm ups

[atthehalf]

Oh wow! Chris Bassitt is complaining of shoulder tightness and may not go the full 5 frames according to our discord-so with this knowledge get out of that shit too! BUY BACK Buccos+115 LIVE BET

[atthehalf]

Alright-push it through again

Sailors+122 Castillo 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Now the line wants to move the right way for the Sailors...still thinking on it...again

[stevenash]

^
I hear you, but if they can't get it right against Charlie Morton, though, they'll never get it right.

[atthehalf]

Get off of Astronauts too--they have been shutout for 28 straight frames. I can't back them up even though the situation is decent

[atthehalf]

Oka so here is what I'm smokin on for today later on with my baseballs ! I actually BET OUT of the Sailors-I don't like the moves that the line is doing-so here's the rest so far

Cardinals ML +104 (3 UNITS)
Athletics ML +101 (3 UNITS)
Red Leggins ML +113 (3 UNITS)
Giants ML +128 (3 UNITS)

[atthehalf]

Alright so the Astronauts were a huge underdog yesterday and favored today-a good profile already until you take into account that road favorites off of a 1-0 loss are 100-49 on streak which is a 67% win rate with a 15% ROI. I do like rolling with road teams favored in the final game of a series too

Chris Bassit as a road favorite of -120 or more is on an outstanding streak of 27-2 since 2019 which is a 93% win rate. of course i won't make a purchase of -145 or more so I went with the RL

The Sailors usually tear up lefties and Luzardo is a cherry bomb-one of those guys who are up and down and may blow up in your hands as evidenced by his 5-2 mark at home but with an ERA of 5.23. Right now he has been hot to say the least-but I seriously doubt that the Sailors get swept in this series and Castillo should keep them in the game. Even if it loses-this is a good play on simple value as the Blunts do have the 26 ranked strength of schedule in MLB (who knew?)

Messick is making his MLB debut and I am excited about it having grabbed him before the season began- Brandon Pfaadt.... i have as a DNS arm today


The Nats are looking good today as a division dog and having got blown out at home and scoring less than 5 runs...

Anyway

CHALLENGE MOVES


1:00 Astronauts/Tigers UNDER 8.5 2 UNITS
1:00 Sailors/Blunts UNDER 9 2 UNITS