Three straight days of .500 picks, man the consistency is killing me. Coulda been 2-1 yesterday if I sacked up and took the MIN-TOR over after I flagged it as one to watch! Discuss your over plays along with what I like if you ch-ch-choose to.
TB-BAL +8.5 (-130)
This total figures to jump to 9 at some point and even then, I'd still like it. Kazmir has been pitching well lately for the D-Rays, but has had little success at Camden Yards. 1-2, 6.38 ERA to be exact. His over-unders are a dead split of 4 each in roadies this season. On the other side, Daniel Cabrera should more than make up for any success Kazmir has. Cabrera's home starts have gone over in 9 of 11 and in his last 4 at home, he's given up no less than 4 runs with totals running at 13, 14, 12 & 11. He does have good career marks vs. TB, but even so in his only start vs. them this year the total got up to 17. TB is also a ridiculous 33-13-2 in favor of the over in road games.
BOS-CLE +9 (-110)
A bit risky here as Dice-K and C.C. are fully capable of spinning gems, but going on recent form I expect to squeak out at least a push. Dice-K has hit another rough patch. In his last 3 starts, his totals have hit the over in 2 of 3. CLE has also hit him hard once already at Fenway to the tune of 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings. On the other side, Sabathia has struggled in his last 3 and has gone over in 5 of 6. At home, his rate is even higher with the over cashing in 7 of 12 times. He's got decent lifetime #s, but they're actually much better at Fenway and much worse at the Jake. If you cap umpires into your equation, take note that tonight's schedule home ump Joe West is 14-6 in favor of the over.
**Flagging the PIT-NYM game at 7.5 right now. Might add it to plays after looking a bit more**
TB-BAL +8.5 (-130)
This total figures to jump to 9 at some point and even then, I'd still like it. Kazmir has been pitching well lately for the D-Rays, but has had little success at Camden Yards. 1-2, 6.38 ERA to be exact. His over-unders are a dead split of 4 each in roadies this season. On the other side, Daniel Cabrera should more than make up for any success Kazmir has. Cabrera's home starts have gone over in 9 of 11 and in his last 4 at home, he's given up no less than 4 runs with totals running at 13, 14, 12 & 11. He does have good career marks vs. TB, but even so in his only start vs. them this year the total got up to 17. TB is also a ridiculous 33-13-2 in favor of the over in road games.
BOS-CLE +9 (-110)
A bit risky here as Dice-K and C.C. are fully capable of spinning gems, but going on recent form I expect to squeak out at least a push. Dice-K has hit another rough patch. In his last 3 starts, his totals have hit the over in 2 of 3. CLE has also hit him hard once already at Fenway to the tune of 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings. On the other side, Sabathia has struggled in his last 3 and has gone over in 5 of 6. At home, his rate is even higher with the over cashing in 7 of 12 times. He's got decent lifetime #s, but they're actually much better at Fenway and much worse at the Jake. If you cap umpires into your equation, take note that tonight's schedule home ump Joe West is 14-6 in favor of the over.
**Flagging the PIT-NYM game at 7.5 right now. Might add it to plays after looking a bit more**
