Almost a really nice day Thursday, but the boojwah Twins game left me only a couple dollars winner.
Heavy:
Athletics -106 (Blanton/Bedard)
Well, since April, Erik Bedard has been the best starting pitcher in baseball (12 of 14 quality starts, 7.0+ shutout innings FIVE TIMES). He’s making an improbable Cy Young push. But he’s really struggled against Oakland in his career (0-3, 4.66 ERA, with his team losing all six starts) and he had his start moved back because of shoulder stiffness.
Joe Blanton has had extreme home/road splits since coming into the league, mostly because McAfee Coliseum fits him so well, so of course I always give the home team the first look when he pitches. At home - 9 starts, 8 quality starts, 2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .202 BAA. On the road - 11 starts, 5 quality starts, 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .279 BAA. Baltimore is one of the few teams with neither a better lineup or bullpen than Oakland. Both of these teams hit lefties much better than righties, so I’m inclined to take the righty even laying this short number.
Medium:
Royals +164 (Meche/Rogers)
This is about as big a pitching advantage as a +165 dog will ever have, as well as a nice situational fade of an overrated Tigers team after their fluky sweep of the Twins. Both Rogers and the Tigers are receiving entirely too much love in general from the public. Rogers is starting to show his true colors. After allowing only 7 hits and BB his first two starts (12 innings), he’s allowed 19 his last two (10.1 innings). He has very ordinary numbers against the Royals overall, and many of the current hitters have had success with him. Only Granderson (6-16, 2B, HR) and Inge (6-19, 3 2B, HR) have had any real success against Meche - but they have 5 and 8 strikeouts, respectively. Casey (1-10), Guillen (5-22), Infante (1-10), Ordonez (7-26) Pudge (4-15), Sheffield (5-18), and Thames (0-7) all have numbers much worse than what their overall numbers. It will be overlooked by many, but the Royals actually have a much better bullpen than the Tigers, and barring Meche getting knocked out early, this should at least be close. Way too steep a price here.
Waiting & Pondering (please chime in):
Dodgers + (Tomko/Perez)
The Mets just haven’t been able to score a lot lately (tonight‘s result obviously withstanding), and despite his bad reputation, Tomko has very nice numbers against most of the Mets’ regulars. The Dodgers destroy lefties, and Perez’s numbers against LAD are weak. The Mets will almost certainly be a huge public play, and if the line gets to where I want, I’ll play it. If not, that’s fine too.
Twins + (Silva/Lackey)
Silva has excellent career numbers against LAA, and even though the Angels have the obvious SP advantage, I’m inclined to give the Twins a look here. These teams are very similar in almost every aspect, except the Twins have a little better bullpen, and I think even against Lackey they stand a good chance of regrouping after the tough back to back to back losses.
Heavy:
Athletics -106 (Blanton/Bedard)
Well, since April, Erik Bedard has been the best starting pitcher in baseball (12 of 14 quality starts, 7.0+ shutout innings FIVE TIMES). He’s making an improbable Cy Young push. But he’s really struggled against Oakland in his career (0-3, 4.66 ERA, with his team losing all six starts) and he had his start moved back because of shoulder stiffness.
Joe Blanton has had extreme home/road splits since coming into the league, mostly because McAfee Coliseum fits him so well, so of course I always give the home team the first look when he pitches. At home - 9 starts, 8 quality starts, 2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .202 BAA. On the road - 11 starts, 5 quality starts, 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .279 BAA. Baltimore is one of the few teams with neither a better lineup or bullpen than Oakland. Both of these teams hit lefties much better than righties, so I’m inclined to take the righty even laying this short number.
Medium:
Royals +164 (Meche/Rogers)
This is about as big a pitching advantage as a +165 dog will ever have, as well as a nice situational fade of an overrated Tigers team after their fluky sweep of the Twins. Both Rogers and the Tigers are receiving entirely too much love in general from the public. Rogers is starting to show his true colors. After allowing only 7 hits and BB his first two starts (12 innings), he’s allowed 19 his last two (10.1 innings). He has very ordinary numbers against the Royals overall, and many of the current hitters have had success with him. Only Granderson (6-16, 2B, HR) and Inge (6-19, 3 2B, HR) have had any real success against Meche - but they have 5 and 8 strikeouts, respectively. Casey (1-10), Guillen (5-22), Infante (1-10), Ordonez (7-26) Pudge (4-15), Sheffield (5-18), and Thames (0-7) all have numbers much worse than what their overall numbers. It will be overlooked by many, but the Royals actually have a much better bullpen than the Tigers, and barring Meche getting knocked out early, this should at least be close. Way too steep a price here.
Waiting & Pondering (please chime in):
Dodgers + (Tomko/Perez)
The Mets just haven’t been able to score a lot lately (tonight‘s result obviously withstanding), and despite his bad reputation, Tomko has very nice numbers against most of the Mets’ regulars. The Dodgers destroy lefties, and Perez’s numbers against LAD are weak. The Mets will almost certainly be a huge public play, and if the line gets to where I want, I’ll play it. If not, that’s fine too.
Twins + (Silva/Lackey)
Silva has excellent career numbers against LAA, and even though the Angels have the obvious SP advantage, I’m inclined to give the Twins a look here. These teams are very similar in almost every aspect, except the Twins have a little better bullpen, and I think even against Lackey they stand a good chance of regrouping after the tough back to back to back losses.
