Boston RL (-110): Texas has admittedly been playing better of late, but they are still not a fearsome presence on the field.
Boston is likely to be in a somewhat foul mood after having a day off to think about getting swept at Seattle, and Texas starter Jamey Wright is likely to get burned by the Sox' offensive firepower. He is, of course, a vulnerable starter in general, and facing Boston is likely to only make matters worse for him.
Wakefield keeps chugging along, and he's likely to have a decent start, giving up a bunch of runs, but likely two or more fewer than Boston will produce against Wright & Co., and Boston's pen should be able to handle things after that.
Atlanta RL (+135): Atlanta's lineup, which was bound to come to life at some point, may be doing so right now. Even if they're not, if Florida starter Josh Johnson hasn't fixed his problems, he will give another game away, just as he did in his first two starts.
The only way Atlanta won't jump out to a big lead in this one is if both Atlanta's recent offensive productivity was a mirage, and Johnson rights himself for this start. Even if that is the case, Atlanta will still have a reasonable chance at pulling out a RL win, as Chuck James is always capable of a quality start, and Florida's pen is a bit extended, while Atlanta's is rested.
Add it all up, and there's value of the RL for Atlanta IMO.
Kansas City ML (+100): Both of these lesser teams have been playing well recently, but the Sox are getting more notice since their ineptitude this year was unexpected, while Kansas City's is business as usual. But in fact, KC's 3-game road sweep of the Angels is probably a greater feat than the Sox' 4-game road sweep of Tampa Bay.
KC starter Brian Bannister has had a season arguably better than Sox starter Contreras, and he will be able to keep this one competitive if he is on his game. KC also now actually has a decent pen, and they should have a small edge if the game is close in the later innings. KC has small but solid value here at home at even money IMO.
San Diego ML (-120): Chris Young has been one of the elite starters in baseball over the last 2 months, without question. His May/June numbers are eye-popping; they look like the minor league stats of a highly-touted phenom about to get the call-up. Granted, they have all come in very pitcher-friendly parks, but nevertheless, he is in top form right now, and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Dodgers' starter Kuo can be very good, and he will likely be a capable starter for a while in the majors. But this situation just sets up well for SD. Their bullpen is off of a full day of rest, and the Dodgers will go from facing mediocre pitching in a hitters' park to facing elite pitching in a pitchers' park.
There's value with SD as a small favorite here IMO.
Boston is likely to be in a somewhat foul mood after having a day off to think about getting swept at Seattle, and Texas starter Jamey Wright is likely to get burned by the Sox' offensive firepower. He is, of course, a vulnerable starter in general, and facing Boston is likely to only make matters worse for him.
Wakefield keeps chugging along, and he's likely to have a decent start, giving up a bunch of runs, but likely two or more fewer than Boston will produce against Wright & Co., and Boston's pen should be able to handle things after that.
Atlanta RL (+135): Atlanta's lineup, which was bound to come to life at some point, may be doing so right now. Even if they're not, if Florida starter Josh Johnson hasn't fixed his problems, he will give another game away, just as he did in his first two starts.
The only way Atlanta won't jump out to a big lead in this one is if both Atlanta's recent offensive productivity was a mirage, and Johnson rights himself for this start. Even if that is the case, Atlanta will still have a reasonable chance at pulling out a RL win, as Chuck James is always capable of a quality start, and Florida's pen is a bit extended, while Atlanta's is rested.
Add it all up, and there's value of the RL for Atlanta IMO.
Kansas City ML (+100): Both of these lesser teams have been playing well recently, but the Sox are getting more notice since their ineptitude this year was unexpected, while Kansas City's is business as usual. But in fact, KC's 3-game road sweep of the Angels is probably a greater feat than the Sox' 4-game road sweep of Tampa Bay.
KC starter Brian Bannister has had a season arguably better than Sox starter Contreras, and he will be able to keep this one competitive if he is on his game. KC also now actually has a decent pen, and they should have a small edge if the game is close in the later innings. KC has small but solid value here at home at even money IMO.
San Diego ML (-120): Chris Young has been one of the elite starters in baseball over the last 2 months, without question. His May/June numbers are eye-popping; they look like the minor league stats of a highly-touted phenom about to get the call-up. Granted, they have all come in very pitcher-friendly parks, but nevertheless, he is in top form right now, and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Dodgers' starter Kuo can be very good, and he will likely be a capable starter for a while in the majors. But this situation just sets up well for SD. Their bullpen is off of a full day of rest, and the Dodgers will go from facing mediocre pitching in a hitters' park to facing elite pitching in a pitchers' park.
There's value with SD as a small favorite here IMO.
