Angels ML: This one is pretty straightforward. The Yankees couldn't beat the Angels in the first two games of this series with starters who are in a bit better form than Mussina. The Angels should be competitive in this one again, and probably have value as an underdog. Depending on line movements, weather, and lineups, I'll be looking at the over as well. If it goes to 9, the Angels could easily come close to that all by themselves if Mussina continues to struggle.
Mets RL, over: More of the same in this game is likely. The Mets hit lefties well, and Olsen is vulnerable. Florida could win outright of course, but a one-run win by the Mets is unlikely. The over should have value as well, unless there is a wind blowing in and the teams sit some big bats. But if most of the big guys are playing and it's normal weather out, over 9 probably has value.
Pitt/Cin over: I'll be waiting for lineups, weather, and line movements, but the basics for an over here are in place, as they have been all week at Cincinnati. Lively bats, shaky pens, and vulnerable starters are involved here once again.
Wash ML: The Washington big road underdog money train keeps a-rolling. Yesterday, they were set up with unpromising circumstances; a somewhat extended bullpen and their most illegitimate starter, but they still almost won. Today things look better for them. The important pen guys got a day of rest, and Matt Chico can give another performance where he barely gets by but still leaves with Washington in the game. Wainwright is unreliable right now, as he is having many nagging health problems. Washington should be able to keep it close and may come again with yet another win as a big road underdog.
KC ML, over: I think there's a bit of value in both of these. KC as a home underdog should be competitive with Perez a reasonable starter. And the over of 9 or 9.5 at plus odds is not too high, considering that both starters could get hit. Both teams are on consecutive over streaks, and this game doesn't present anything to think a change is in store with this standard total.
Cle RL: Detroit is likely about to embark on a long period of mediocrity at best, and they'll be vulnerable here tonight. Maroth doesn't inspire confidence vs the Cleveland lineup, and of course the Detroit pen will give Cleveland a solid second chance if Maroth does somehow leave with a lead. Polanco was injured yesterday, and contact starter Carmona could easily excel here at forgiving Comerica Park.
Mets RL, over: More of the same in this game is likely. The Mets hit lefties well, and Olsen is vulnerable. Florida could win outright of course, but a one-run win by the Mets is unlikely. The over should have value as well, unless there is a wind blowing in and the teams sit some big bats. But if most of the big guys are playing and it's normal weather out, over 9 probably has value.
Pitt/Cin over: I'll be waiting for lineups, weather, and line movements, but the basics for an over here are in place, as they have been all week at Cincinnati. Lively bats, shaky pens, and vulnerable starters are involved here once again.
Wash ML: The Washington big road underdog money train keeps a-rolling. Yesterday, they were set up with unpromising circumstances; a somewhat extended bullpen and their most illegitimate starter, but they still almost won. Today things look better for them. The important pen guys got a day of rest, and Matt Chico can give another performance where he barely gets by but still leaves with Washington in the game. Wainwright is unreliable right now, as he is having many nagging health problems. Washington should be able to keep it close and may come again with yet another win as a big road underdog.
KC ML, over: I think there's a bit of value in both of these. KC as a home underdog should be competitive with Perez a reasonable starter. And the over of 9 or 9.5 at plus odds is not too high, considering that both starters could get hit. Both teams are on consecutive over streaks, and this game doesn't present anything to think a change is in store with this standard total.
Cle RL: Detroit is likely about to embark on a long period of mediocrity at best, and they'll be vulnerable here tonight. Maroth doesn't inspire confidence vs the Cleveland lineup, and of course the Detroit pen will give Cleveland a solid second chance if Maroth does somehow leave with a lead. Polanco was injured yesterday, and contact starter Carmona could easily excel here at forgiving Comerica Park.
