Dog Nats (+230) at Padres
Game Time: 4/30/2007 10:00:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns
Tonight's Nationals and Padres game presents great value on the underdog. Play Washington this evening at Petco Park in San Diego.
San Diego may win tonight's game but I feel that the line is too high, particularly when the Padres are coming off a 17-inning game vs. rival LA yesterday. That 5-hour marathon began at 4:05 p.m. (ET) and didn't finish until after 9:00 p.m.
San Diego has only been listed as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range once since the beginning of the 2005 season. The Padres lost that game while laying -280. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 5-4 (-5.8) as home favorites in that range the past decade.
During the same stretch, Washington, on the other hand, is a profitable 10-15 (+8.8) when listed as road underdogs in the +225 to +250 range. John Patterson, the Nationals' starter tonight, has gotten off to rough start this season. However, let's not forget that he was supposed to be Washington's top starter this season and that he had a 4.43 ERA (in eight starts) last season after going 9-7 with an excellent 3.13 ERA in 31 starts in 2005.
Let's also keep in mind that Patterson has a career 3.41 ERA vs. the Padres and that he beat San Diego's listed starter Jake Peavy 5-1 (as a +150 underdog) the last time he pitched here in San Diego. Patterson went the full nine innings in that start, allowing only three hits (6 K's, 0 walks) and one run. I feel that the value clearly lies with visitors. Consider a play on Washington.
Note: For those not comfortable with wagering on such a large underdog, playing at +1½ runs (on the run line) is also worth consideration.
Play: Nationals +230
Game Time: 4/30/2007 10:00:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns
Tonight's Nationals and Padres game presents great value on the underdog. Play Washington this evening at Petco Park in San Diego.
San Diego may win tonight's game but I feel that the line is too high, particularly when the Padres are coming off a 17-inning game vs. rival LA yesterday. That 5-hour marathon began at 4:05 p.m. (ET) and didn't finish until after 9:00 p.m.
San Diego has only been listed as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range once since the beginning of the 2005 season. The Padres lost that game while laying -280. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 5-4 (-5.8) as home favorites in that range the past decade.
During the same stretch, Washington, on the other hand, is a profitable 10-15 (+8.8) when listed as road underdogs in the +225 to +250 range. John Patterson, the Nationals' starter tonight, has gotten off to rough start this season. However, let's not forget that he was supposed to be Washington's top starter this season and that he had a 4.43 ERA (in eight starts) last season after going 9-7 with an excellent 3.13 ERA in 31 starts in 2005.
Let's also keep in mind that Patterson has a career 3.41 ERA vs. the Padres and that he beat San Diego's listed starter Jake Peavy 5-1 (as a +150 underdog) the last time he pitched here in San Diego. Patterson went the full nine innings in that start, allowing only three hits (6 K's, 0 walks) and one run. I feel that the value clearly lies with visitors. Consider a play on Washington.
Note: For those not comfortable with wagering on such a large underdog, playing at +1½ runs (on the run line) is also worth consideration.
Play: Nationals +230