It's at 9.5 with plus odds now, even +110 at BJ.
I know Seattle home games are 9-2 to the over this year, but I think there are reasons for that, and I think that is what is driving the number up. It opened at 9 and has been bet way way up, but I think that movement is wrong. Both starters are young but had success in the majors in their brief stints last year, and both were solid in the minors this year before getting called up. And neither of these lineups is terribly fearsome.
The line movement suprised me, I thought maybe there was a 25 MPH wind blowing out or something? But MLB.com reports a 10 MPH wind in from center in fact.
Normally a strong line movement like this that I disagree with would give me pause, but in this case I think I know why the line moved the way it did: a strong ATS over trend to start the year in Seattle, and 2 starters who had sub-par first starts of the year. But I think the movement is wrong, I think there's value with the under at 9.5 and plus odds.
I know Seattle home games are 9-2 to the over this year, but I think there are reasons for that, and I think that is what is driving the number up. It opened at 9 and has been bet way way up, but I think that movement is wrong. Both starters are young but had success in the majors in their brief stints last year, and both were solid in the minors this year before getting called up. And neither of these lineups is terribly fearsome.
The line movement suprised me, I thought maybe there was a 25 MPH wind blowing out or something? But MLB.com reports a 10 MPH wind in from center in fact.
Normally a strong line movement like this that I disagree with would give me pause, but in this case I think I know why the line moved the way it did: a strong ATS over trend to start the year in Seattle, and 2 starters who had sub-par first starts of the year. But I think the movement is wrong, I think there's value with the under at 9.5 and plus odds.
