Almost a guaranteed win in baseball betting?

The General · 09-30-09, 07:19 PM

I have seen this many times over but there are sooo many 1 run games that the idea is not best when trying blindly. I do think if you add a few more angles to a system there are some decent opportunities. Good question for discussion. Many have tried.

BOL to you

i_pick_winners1 · 09-30-09, 07:21 PM

I was thinking that the bigger the line spread the less of a chance for a close game. If a fav is going to win they're going to crush the dog. If a dog upsets, a fav usually comes up VERY short (i.e. an ace like Beckett or Zambrano getting crushed for 7 runs in one inning)

wacked · 09-30-09, 07:23 PM

If there was a way, it would of been done. There are way too many 1 run games, doesn't matter who's the dog.

i_pick_winners1 · 09-30-09, 07:28 PM

Yeah, I realize that, just thought I would throw it up for discussing here at the end of the season...

The Bishop · 09-30-09, 07:53 PM

Do you think no one has ever thought of this before? If this worked it would've been done LONG before YOU ever thought of it. I hate to be an asshole, but come on.

Rich Boy · 09-30-09, 07:55 PM

1 run games have occurred 30.7% of the time since 1990 (all games)

The General · 09-30-09, 07:56 PM

I guess there are bettors out there with data for many years studying this angle.

The General · 09-30-09, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

1 run games have occurred 30.7% of the time since 1990 (all games)

Losing double the money 31% of the time is not a good idea. Then you lose enough elsewhere trying to pick the winner on other games. Tough, very tough.

jagerfury · 10-01-09, 10:47 AM

I use run line sparingly. A good dog is worth its weight in gold as it is.

Sam Odom · 10-01-09, 10:57 AM

Same bad idea is playing RL -1 1/2 & Alt RL -1 1/2.

Hybris · 10-01-09, 11:19 AM

Just play the dog and cash

smitch124 · 10-01-09, 11:44 AM

This is the 5th thread I've seen on SBR about this angle, its a non-starter.

Blargh · 10-01-09, 01:03 PM

Use the odds to show probablilty
LAA 100/280 = .357
NYY 200/300 = .666
Take out the juice
LAA actual odds .357/(.357+.666) = .3489
Get an expected return for a Angles win
.3489* (180-100) = $27.91
Repeat for Yankees
NYY 100/210 = .476
LAA (assumption of -120 +1.5 RL) 120/220 = .545
NYY actual odds = .466 * $10 = $4.66
Odds of 1 run game based on lines
1-.466-.357= 0.177 *-200 = -$35.40
Expected outcome
$27.91+$4.66-35.40 = -2.83

Sam Odom · 10-01-09, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Blargh

Expected outcome $27.91+$4.66-35.40 = -2.83

Rather play the passline in a craps game @ 1/2 the vig

acuraintegralove · 10-01-09, 01:31 PM

yeah, I tried this for a while... made a little, but then 1-run game... evened it all out.... so I just about broke even... not worth the stress over it...

IrishTim · 10-01-09, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

1 run games have occurred 30.7% of the time since 1990 (all games)

The percent of run one games isn't as important is is the percent of games where the favorite wins by 1 run.

I have done stuff like this with a little line shopping, made a little profit, but stopped before I got burned.

tacomax · 10-01-09, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

This is the 5th thread I've seen on SBR about this angle, its a non-starter.

pags pags11

floridagolfer · 10-01-09, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by IrishTim

The percent of run one games isn't as important is is the percent of games where the favorite wins by 1 run.

Bingo. This is the important figure.

Madukwe · 10-01-09, 02:42 PM

very interesting method

malay76 · 10-01-09, 05:07 PM

not a good idea, you will lose more than you think

Rich Boy · 10-01-09, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Bingo. This is the important figure.

The odds of a 1 run game will depend on the total and the ML

yellowman · 10-01-09, 10:27 PM

It most definitely can be done - I've been doing it all season....

Irish Tim is right, it is dependent on the number of times the favorite wins by 1 run...which is roughly 1 in 6....that's all I am going to share

The General · 10-01-09, 11:04 PM

Welcome to SBR, yellowman.

I believe if you incorporate systematic angles with trial and error, the value of the wager will increase and a person doing the work will find methods and/or edges which give better chances of being correct often enough to show profitable experiences. Different variables applied and likely one or more constants would seemingly need to be involved.

Masu485 · 10-01-09, 11:12 PM

i myself made a thread about this a while back and got blasted the same way. no one proved anything using numbers, they just said if it worked, it'd have been done already.

according to the sparse info i got in that thread, favs win the game by 1 run only 17% of the time, which i think would make it profitable long term.

but then again, i've never backtested it myself so haven't used it.

yellowman · 10-01-09, 11:15 PM

Actually it is simple numbers...the idea for my system came to me literally on a walk in the park over my lunch hour...to my surprise, I plugged the numbers in and it sure as hell works....if you know the run line favorite wins by one run every sixth game, you basically need to find the edge where you can statistically cover the 2 unit loss in the other five games...funny thing is, I don't know jack sh!t about baseball and never will...but I sure as hell know numbers and statistics...

Rich Boy · 10-01-09, 11:21 PM

You cant just say "favorites win by 1 run X% of the time", a favorite could be -102 with a total of 6, or -250 with a total of 11.

If you want to calculate the true odds of X team winning by 1 run just take the no juice ML and -1.5 lines and find the difference.

Rich Boy · 10-01-09, 11:23 PM

And every wager you make will be -EV, no 2 -EV wagers can produce a +EV outcome, NEVER...

You guys should check out some threads by Ganchrow or Justin7, and please DO NOT try this method, you will go broke

IrishTim · 10-01-09, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by yellowman

It most definitely can be done - I've been doing it all season....

Irish Tim is right, it is dependent on the number of times the favorite wins by 1 run...which is roughly 1 in 6....that's all I am going to share

If it is in fact 1 in every 6 games on average where the favorite wins by 1, then if you shopped around and found the favorite RL and dog odds at better than +140, it would be profitable. But it obviously depends on who the favorites are. The odds of winning by 1 run are undoubtedly higher with a -110 dog than a -200 dog.

yellowman · 10-01-09, 11:40 PM

In my system, when I place my bets between the ML and the RL, it doesn't matter who wins, the fav or the dog...either way I make the same amount. In those five games, I am guaranteed to win more than the 2 units I will lose when the favorite wins by one. It averages out to about 1/3 unit win per 6 games played. Last two nights have been great...no one run fav winners in the games I have played...won almost 6u. Some days you will lose of course....most days its a smallish win

Blargh · 10-02-09, 01:13 AM

I played a system using the RL for the top Fav so I have a record of the games since July 9th. I understand this is not exactly what is being disccused but I do believe it is relevant.
Since July 9th the top Fav has won by one run 9 times in 80 plays. So if you were only using this against the top Fav, you would have lost money 11% of the time or almost 1 in 9 games.
Whether that 1 in 9 is good for the long-term can be debated (or backtested by someone else) but it applying this to only the top fav/dog would have made you money the past two and half months.

If this thread is still alive over the weekend and I get bored I might actually back test a bit of it using units.

Pancho sanza · 10-02-09, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

And every wager you make will be -EV, no 2 -EV wagers can produce a +EV outcome, NEVER...

You guys should check out some threads by Ganchrow or Justin7, and please DO NOT try this method, you will go broke

Thats it in a nutshell.

The only exception is when there is significant correlation.