Stopped posting for a few days and heated up. Lets try this again. 16 games really going to dive in and try to find the value here. Gl
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Marlins and A's, thoughts? GL!Comment -
Phillies Game 1 +134 (Matchbook) to win 1 Unit
The Phillies are providing some very nice value here in game 1. We see a pitching match up of Josh Johnson vs Joe Blanton. Blanton used to be one of my favorite fades but he has slowly developed into one of the more undervalued pitchers in the game. Blanton has given up 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts. Crazy number there. Blanton also comes in with an ERA under 3.50 since the break. The Phillies have been hot winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Phillies come in trying to shrink that magic number and they will try to do it in the friendly confines of Land Shark Stadium. The Phils have made themselves at home there going 6-0 there this year and 8-0 in their last 8 games in Land Shark. The Marlins are desperate for a win in this one as they find themseves five games out of the wildcard race with just 12 to play. The Fish were right in this race just about a week ago but since they have seemed to press a bit too hard and it has showed. After winning 8 of 10 to gain some ground in the race they have gone just 4-4 losing crucial games to the Nationals and Reds. Both lineups will probably have a few regulars out with the double-dip which I think favors the Phillies who can provide much more production off of the bench with guys like Francisco, Mayberry, Stairs, and Dobbs.
Phillies 5, Marlins 3Comment -
Interesting pick here BJ. Any thoughts on game 2?Comment -
Cincinatti Reds +102 (5 Dimes) to win 1 Unit
I like the Reds in this spot here. The Pirates have been pathetic since the deadline when they shipped off any player with any name recognition on thier team. Since the deadline they have gone 12-34. Think thats bad? How is 3-20 in your last 23 games? Well thats what the Pirates have done. Yet the Pirates open as a favorite because the overvalued commodity of Zach Duke takes the hill. Yes, Duke's ERA looks good on paper but the Pirates are 1-8 in his last 9 starts. During that span he has pitched 37 innings and allowed 69 hits and 35 runs. The Reds have played good ball sweeping the Astros and splitting with the Marlins. Since coming off an injury Cueto has been brilliant, just 5 runs and 10 hits over 16.1 innings with the Reds winning all 3 of those starts. Cueto has also been surprisingly stellar on the road this year with a sub 4 ERA in 15 starts. Also, he has dominated the Pirates in 3 starts this year with a 2.74 ERA in 3 starts.
Reds 6, Pirates 3Comment -
Cleveland Indians +122 (Matchbook) to win 1.22 Units
The Tigers are in semi-panic mode. Their lead in the AL Central is shrinking by the day and is down to just 2.5 and now they have to go on the road where they have struggled all season. They have lost 9 of 13 and the Twins are quickly closing in. The bad news is the Tigers have been a very bad road team this year, just 31-44, and it is almost like watching another team when they have to travel. Edwin Jackson seems to still be overvalued here. His early season dominance has faded and he has been getting hit quite hard lately. He is giving up a ton of baserunners and in his 4 September starts his ERA is over 6. His last two starts he has yielded 10 ER. The guy is struggling and the Tigers are just 7-7 in his last 14 starts. They are just 6-10 in his road starts this year as well. The Indians are coming in on an 8 game losing streak but 7 of those games were played on the road in Minnesota or all the way on the west coast in Oakland. Now they come back home where Laffey has been a stellar 4-1 with a 2.94 ERA this year.
Indians 4, Tigers 2Comment -
Tampa Bay Rays -135 (Bet Jam) to win 1 Unit
Well the Rays elminated themselves from the AL East and AL wildcard race with a terrible losing streak but have bounced back and come into this one on a 4 game winning streak. Over the past two seasons the Rays have dominated opponents at home, even with lack of a crowd, and I am shocked to see this line providing such value. They Rays will be lead by Jeff Niemann who got roughed up in his last start @ Baltimore. I am not holding much stock in that as he has struggled on the road most of the season but pitched very well at home with a 2.48 ERA at home this year. Also before getting roughed up in Baltimore he had 3 very nice starts against the vs the Tigers, @ Yankees and @ the Tigers. Seattle comes in with an elimination # of 1 so the writing is on the wall. They have been playing very average baseball lately although they did look good in taking a series from the Yanks. Ryan Rowland-Smith is still trying to transition into a starter and the results have been mixed. He has a big 4.88 ERA on the road with two bad starts bloating that number. Still I don't expect him to fare well in this one on a long trip all the way from Seattle to Tampa. Love Tampa here.
Rays 5, Mariners 2Comment -
As for Game 2: Jamie Moyer is 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA in Miami in his career. However, Sanchez has been stellar since his return to the club. I am probably going to see what goes on in Game 1. If the Phillies lose I will probably back them again in Game 2. If they win I will lay off. I think the value is very mixed in this game. You can make a strong case for either side. The under deserves a look too but I still want to see how Game 1 pans out.Comment -
Kansas City Royals -149 (5 Dimes) to win 1 Unit
The Royals have been playing great ball lately going 11-3 in their last 14 games. Those games weren't against many duds either. That 14 game run stretches 1 vs Angels, 3 vs Tigers, 3 @ Indians, 3 @ Tigers, 3 @ White Sox, and 1 vs Red Sox. Also they are tearing the cover off of the ball going averaging 6.5 runs per game over that stretch. Those who predicted a Zack Greinke collapse have been proven dead wrong as his ERA remains under 2.20 and his home ERA is an astounding 1.82. In 3 September starts his ERA is a measily 0.45. Paul Byrd is certainly hittable although it's hard to get a good feel for what he is to this Red Sox team. He has made 4 starts and his 3 at home have all been solid. His one on the road however he got shelled for 7 runs. I feel the value lies in Greinke against a Red Sox team with a knack for no-showing against some of the better pitchers in the game over the years.
Royals 6, Red Sox 3Comment -
Gotcha, thank you for your inputs.Comment -
SF Giants/ ARI Diamondbacks Under 9 (-120 Bet Jam) to win 1 Unit
This is another huge game for the Giants just as everygame from here on out will be. They need a good outing from Matt Cain who hasn't been the man who dominated early in the year. He hasn't had terrible starts but he is having starts with 4 earned runs more and more often it seems. The strange thing? In Matt Cain's 30 starts this year he has had just 3 games where the total went over 9 runs. The Giants still struggle to hit the ball against quality arms and Doug Davis is just that. He is very solid, especially at home. In Davis's 31 starts just 8 have gone over a total of 9 runs. It should be noted four of those were on the road. Davis has a sub 3.50 ERA at home this year and typically gets no run support, hence the 7-13 record. I like the under here.
Giants 4, D-Backs 3Comment -
LA Angels -118 (Matchbook) to win 1 Unit
Most people are going to spring at the sight of the Yankees as dogs but keep in mind the Angels have owned the Yankees when the Yankees fly out west. They are 4-19 in their last 23 games @ Angels. The Angels and the fans love beating these Yankees and always get up for these games. The Yankees have been struggling lately, just 4-6 in their last 10 contests all against bottom tier teams except for one win vs the Angels and one loss @ the Angels. The Angels will throw Ervin Santana who has been stellar lately. In his last 52.2 innings he has given up just 18 ER. Chad Gaudin has been solid as a Yankee but he is still shaky to me. I havn't seen anything yet to show me the Angels won't be able to handle him tomorrow night. Thus the value lies in the Angels.
Angels 7, Yankees 4Comment -
As for the A's game. The A's are hot while the Rangers have struggled lately. Trevor Cahill is throwing the ball great but McCarthy hasn't been to shabby himself. I personally would not back the Rangers in this spot. I am leaning A's. Cahill's last 42 innings just 13 ER. I think the A's do get it done tommorrow.Comment -
Atlanta Braves -165 to win 1 Unit
Line is higher then I typically like playing but this is a game that I think should be in the -200 range. Tons of value here. Braves 5 games out of the wildcard with 12 to play still have a reason to beleive. The Mets are just waiting for the season to end after a year lost to injuries. Braves 9-3 in thier last 12 have closed some space in the wildcard and I don't think they will fold yet. The Braves can actually sneak in. They have 2 games vs the Mets, 3 vs the Marlins, and 7 vs the Nationals. Thats a soft schedule and they can win everyone of those games. The Braves have owned the Mets this year going 9-2 in thier last 11 vs New York. The Mets are 13-33 in thier last 36 games, and 3-11 in thier past 14. Jair Jurrjens has been extremley solid this year and owned the Mets in his 4 starts against them this year. 26.2 innings pitched and just 5 ER this year against the Mets. His post all-star ERA is just 2.52. Nelson Figueroa has struggled big time this year. He has pitched 7 innings against the Braves this year and allowed 8 ER. The Mets are just 2-11 in games he pitches in this year.
Braves 8, Mets 2Comment -
With you on Rays and Brave, good luck.Comment -
Gl bro. Hoping for a nice night. Feel good about the card.Comment -
Philadelphia Phillies/Florida Marlins Under 9.5 to win 1 Unit
Both teams look sluggish and word from the Phillies broadcast is that if the Phillies win game one they will be resting a lot of guys. It's tough playing these straight through double headers in 90 degree heat baisically playing 18 innings with little to no break. Both teams look sluggish already and I don't expect them to magically get upbeat in the 2nd game. The Fish's only real chance to get into the post season was to sweep the doubleheader and to get a Rockies loss which would have put them 3.5 games out. Now if they don't come back in game one they will need a win and Rocky loss just to get to 4.5 out. I think you will see a depressed and uninspired team. Not to mention Moyer is 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA in Miami and Sanchez has pitched very well since returning to the club. I like this one quite a bit.
Phillies 3, Marlins 2Comment -
Great intial Phillies pick. I tied that into a four team parlay with Reds, Cubs, and Cards. $400 win!Comment -
Nice call on the Reds! Rays' bullpen gave it up once AGAIN, looks like they are a FF play for me rest of the way.Comment -
Tuesday Recap:
Phillies Game 1 +134: Win +1.34 Units
Cincinatti Reds +102: Win +1.02 Units (+2.36 Units)
Cleveland Indians +122: Loss -1.00 Units (+1.36 Units)
Tampa Bay Rays -135: Loss -1.35 Units (+0.01 Units)
Kansas City Royals -149: Win +1.00 Units (+1.01 Units)
SF/Ari Under 9 -120: Loss -1.20 Units (-0.19 Units)
LA Angels -118: Loss -1.18 Units (-1.37 Units)
Atlanta Braves -165: Win +1.00 Units (-0.37 Units)
Fla/Phi Under 9.5: Win +1.00 Units (+0.63 Units)
Won a bit making it my fourth consecutive winning day which I will take any time. Laffey got no support and the Rays pen gave up a blast in the 8th or I could have had a much better day but I will take my win.
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