MLB Picks - Thursday, 4/28/22

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Reds -108
Marlins / Nationals UNDER 8 -103


YTD: 54-44-3, +11.78

[jjgold]

Pressure
Mounting now

[dirtycash66]

Cant put hard earned dollars on a 3-15 team.

[jjgold]

LT reds a real bad play

[Easy-Rider 66]

LT reds a real bad play

Trust LT's Process GOLD

[Rich Boy]

Bounce back day LT

[BOA12]

Cincy has a better bullpen, neither starter going far in this hitfest. BOL LT

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Cant put hard earned dollars on a 3-15 team.

No such thing as a bad team, only a bad number.

[Rich Boy]

No such thing as a bad team, only a bad number.

Sharp post

[dirtycash66]

No such thing as a bad team, only a bad number.

WTF does that even mean? A team that has lost 15 out of 18 games is a bad team...period. Please drunkHorse, lets not overcomplicate this.

[Easy-Rider 66]

WTF does that even mean? A team that has lost 15 out of 18 games is a bad team...period. Please drunkHorse, lets not overcomplicate this.

yeah you wager on bad teams you get shit on your hands. But every now and then those bad teams cover the number or win. Trust the Process?

[Rich Boy]

Cincinatti is a bad team, yes. But there is a price that makes them a good bet.

You wouldnt take Cincy ML +400?

[dirtycash66]

Cincinatti is a bad team, yes. But there is a price that makes them a good bet.

You wouldnt take Cincy ML +400?

I'll Probably take it , but when was the last time you saw a +400 dog in MLB

[BOA12]

i'll probably take it , but when was the last time you saw a +400 dog in mlb

1927 nyy opponents.

[Rich Boy]

Im just trying to make a point, that there is a price where a bad team is worth betting

LT has identified that with his models and I have faith in that, so im tailing

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Pick Addition

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Reds -108
Marlins / Nationals UNDER 8 -103
Red Sox +125

[LT Profits]

Reds are NOT a 3-15 team, they have underperformed so far. Not saying they are great, but not as bad as their record.

[44 Mag]

Reds are NOT a 3-15 team, they have underperformed so far. Not saying they are great, but not as bad as their record.

Parcells: "You are what your record says you are"...

BOL Boss.

[Rich Boy]

Just a small sample outlier, no MLB team wins at 16%

[takethepnts]

Just a small sample outlier, no MLB team wins at 16%

Very good point 👉

[EdV38]

Brandon Drury is the Reds #2 hitter. The Reds are not a good team. I guess today they have him batting 6th so that's a slight improvement. All the cappers I respect on various forums are on the Reds today and I don't know why. They love Mahle I guess but that's already baked into the number. The offense has looked a bit less atrocious the last couple of games but that's kind of easy when you're already down a bunch. If it was +150 I'd say sure go ahead but it's even money.

[KVB]

Everyone on the Reds today.

Shit.

[KVB]

...All the cappers I respect on various forums are on the Reds today and I don't know why. They love Mahle I guess but that's already baked into the number. The offense has looked a bit less atrocious the last couple of games but that's kind of easy when you're already down a bunch. If it was +150 I'd say sure go ahead but it's even money.

I actually have some forecasts with Cinci winning today.

But you're right, a lot of cappers around these parts like Cinci too.

Interesting. They are still a contrarian play for me and I get what you're saying about price, but even money still seems like a decent pull.

Might look for Cinci to take the lead than possibly sell some back.

[Gamblinglover]

Im just trying to make a point, that there is a price where a bad team is worth betting

LT has identified that with his models and I have faith in that, so im tailing

So how's that work? He puts the stats and numbers into a program and the program says the line should be -125 and the bookie has -105 so you bet?

[KVB]

So how's that work? He puts the stats and numbers into a program and the program says the line should be -125 and the bookie has -105 so you bet?

Basically, in a nut shell.

lol

That's how value is sought in the market. Create a no vig line that is better than the market can hang, and bet when you are off market.

Basically.

[Rich Boy]

So how's that work? He puts the stats and numbers into a program and the program says the line should be -125 and the bookie has -105 so you bet?

Conviction that your estimate is more accurate than the bookmakers is critical also. LT has years of experience and backtesting models, that results in edge.

[Gamblinglover]

Conviction that your estimate is more accurate than the bookmakers is critical also. LT has years of experience and backtesting models, that results in edge.

Right so your basically betting that your model/program is more accurate than the computer the bookmakers are using?

[KVB]

Right so your basically betting that your model/program is more accurate than the computer the bookmakers are using?

Depends on how you view the market.

It might be better to say that one's betting that their model is more accurate than the market opinion, as set by the bettors.

The market can fluctuate and it can dip into and out of your trigger price.

Different markets carry different opinions because they cater to different bettors.

If the books had a computer that was "sharp" and set the "real" line then they might sideline a large portion of the bettors who agree with the book and could miss out on a lot of action.

[LT Profits]

Parcells: "You are what your record says you are"...

BOL Boss.

Only close to true at end of the year. LOTS of variance along the way in a 162-game season.

[LT Profits]

So how's that work? He puts the stats and numbers into a program and the program says the line should be -125 and the bookie has -105 so you bet?

More or less yes. BUT the most important part is which stats you use.

[Gamblinglover]

More or less yes. BUT the most important part is which stats you use.

Is this how most of the pros do it as well? I remember listening to Alan boston saying there are no "real" handicappers left just all computer programmers.

[JayLA]

Is this how most of the pros do it as well? I remember listening to Alan boston saying there are no "real" handicappers left just all computer programmers.

I think "real handicappers" used calculators and math "back in the days", computers just make things easier

[LT Profits]

Is this how most of the pros do it as well? I remember listening to Alan boston saying there are no "real" handicappers left just all computer programmers.

Well while the ease of producing modeled forecasts with a few buttons is certainly truer than ever, there is still handicapping involved in knowing what to do with those results. I do not play ALL edges model shows, knowing which to choose and which to ignore = handicapping, Those that simply play all edges with no further research are the programmers Boston was referring to.

[stevex]

Talk about a day for chalk so far in baseball.

[KVB]

Well while the ease of producing modeled forecasts with a few buttons is certainly truer than ever, there is still handicapping involved in knowing what to do with those results. I do not play ALL edges model shows, knowing which to choose and which to ignore = handicapping, Those that simply play all edges with no further research are the programmers Boston was referring to.

Not just what to do with those results.

Building the inputs, the relevant weightings of the relevant correlations is handicapping. It's the very essence of handicapping. It can be derived in all numbers, but those who did definitely handicapped the sport.

Make no mistake.