K's Low Scoring Under Theory.

[keyboarding]

Hey, I was just playing with some numbers and came across something that I wanted to run by everyone and get some thoughts on.

I ranked all MLB teams by their total runs (scored and allowed), and found that only SEA, SF, and CHC have totaled less than 900 as of today. I then looked at all their home series' and saw if they ever completed an entire series without going over 8.5 runs (I chose 8.5 as an average, I know it can fluctuate) after going over 8.5 in the first game.

I took the rest of the teams and placed them into 3 other categories, +1000, 950-1000, and 900-950. What I found is that if I took away any series that SEA, SF, and CHC played against any 1000+ run team, that it would have been 16 series "wins" and 1 series "loss". The 1 loss was not actually a loss, it was the third game against STL that was PPD.

So, I'm not sure if anyone else has mentioned it but has anyone tried this kind of thing? Taking the lowest producing teams and chasing the under when the first game in a series goes over against a team that isn't a "powerhouse" (WSH, MIL, PHI, CLE, LAA, NYY, BAL, MIN, TB, BOS)?

I'm going to keep an eye on SEA, SF, and CHC, and bet small and see how this goes for the rest of the year.

Input appreciated.

[keyboarding]

I just looked at ATL and STL (both under 930 total runs) and they also were 7-0 and 4-0 when using this theory. But that was at a glance, I didn't have time to exclude powerhouse teams, not that it would affect the losses.

[keyboarding]

Fourth Tier 2009

Powerhouse Teams (Outcomes excluded from system)
Losses

SEATTLE (4-0)
04/17 DET 6-3/7.5 0-2/8
05/01 OAK 8-7/8.5 2-3/8.5
05/15 BOS 5-4 3-5
05/18 LAA 6-10 5-6 1-0
06/16 SD 7-9/7.0 4-3/8.0
07/24 CLE 0-9 3-10 3-12
07/27 TOR 4-11/7.5 4-3/8.0

SAN FRANCISCO (5-1)
04/07 MIL 10-6 2-4
05/11 WSH 11-7 9-7 3-6
05/14 NYM 4-7/8.5 6-8/8.0 6-9/7.5 2-0/9.0
05/25 ATL 8-2/8.0 4-0/7.5
06/15 LAA 7-9 1-8 3-4
06/19 TEX 6-4/8.0 2-1/8.0
07/03 HOU 13-0/8.5 9-0/7.5 1-7/8.0
07/06 FLA 5-4/8.5 3-0/8.0
07/09 SD 9-3/7.0 8-0/8.5
07/30 PHI 7-2 1-5

CHICAGO CUBS (5-1)
04/16 STL 8-7 7-5 PPD
04/21 CIN 7-2/8.0 0-3/8.5
04/30 FLA 2-8/9.5 8-6/8.5 6-1/10.0
05/25 PIT 8-10/7.5 6-1/9.0
06/12 MIN 4-7 0-2
06/19 CLE 8-7 6-5 6-2
07/10 STL 3-8/8.0 5-2/9.0
07/24 CIN 8-5/10.0 5-3/9.5

ATLANTA (4-0)
04/10 WSH 6-5 5-3
05/01 HOU 7-2/8.0 1-5/8.0
06/02 CHC 6-5/9.0 2-3/8.0
06/08 PIT 7-6/8.0 4-3/8.5
06/30 PHI 5-4 11-1 5-2
07/20 SF 11-3/8.5 8-1/8.5 4-2/7.0

PITTSBURGH (1-0)
06/01 NYM 8-5/9.0 3-1/7.5
07/20 MIL 8-5 0-2
07/31 WSH 5-4 11-6 3-5

ST. LOUIS (4-0)
04/06 PIT 6-4/7.5 9-3/8.5 7-4/8.5 1-2/8.5
04/21 NYM 4-6/9.5 2-5/9.5
06/16 DET 2-11/7.5 3-4/8.5
05/29 SF 0-10/7.5 3-6/7.0 2-1/7.5

[G's pks]

You are assuming the over/under at 8.5? Alot of games fall lower...not a valid test without accurate numbers...

[keyboarding]

You are assuming the over/under at 8.5? Alot of games fall lower...not a valid test without accurate numbers...

Do you know where I could go to get archived O/Us on games?

[Blargh]

covers.com

Click on MLB Scoreboard.

Let us know if your theory still holds true.

[pdx107]

Do you know where I could go to get archived O/Us on games?

vegas insider i think.... at least for vegas lines

[G's pks]

do the work let us know!

[keyboarding]

covers.com

Click on MLB Scoreboard.

Let us know if your theory still holds true.

Thank you.

So far SEA panned out. SF went 5-1, with the loss being a push. CHC panned out, with the PPD being the only loss.

[ujacol]

yea dude that sounds nice, thats a lot of data to accumulate, id focus on just a few teams like you were mentioning, bol

[G's pks]

Do them all!

[ujacol]

Do them all!

hahah yea, why not

[Blargh]

Did a quick check of my own. I didn't check all the teams but as expected SF screwed you up. In the April 27-29 series vs the Dodgers they pushed the last two games with a O/U of 8 each game. The SF-Hou series ended with a 7-1 win for the Astros which was a push on the O/U. So SF would be 5-2.

Correction
The April 29th game vs the Dodgers was an Over. SF is 6-1.

As a side note the Over is 100% when SF have a O/U of 10 or higher. One over and zero unders.

[G's pks]

Did a quick check of my own. I didn't check all the teams but as expected SF screwed you up. In the April 27-29 series vs the Dodgers they pushed the last two games with a O/U of 8 each game. The SF-Hou series ended with a 7-1 win for the Astros which was a push on the O/U. So SF would be 5-2.

Correction
The April 29th game vs the Dodgers was an Over. SF is 6-1.

Still not bad with the better odds.... Between you guys..."you can do it"!

[keyboarding]

Did a quick check of my own. I didn't check all the teams but as expected SF screwed you up. In the April 27-29 series vs the Dodgers they pushed the last two games with a O/U of 8 each game. The SF-Hou series ended with a 7-1 win for the Astros which was a push on the O/U. So SF would be 5-2.

Correction
The April 29th game vs the Dodgers was an Over. SF is 6-1.

As a side note the Over is 100% when SF have a O/U of 10 or higher. One over and zero unders.

Why would they be 6-1? Only 5 games were applicable, unless I'm missing something.

[keyboarding]

Update: So far SEA panned out. SF went 5-1, with the loss being a push. CHC panned out, with the PPD being the only loss. ATL panned out, 4-0.

I think I'm on to something here.

Theory would be 18-2 to date.

I'll do some more teams later. Only PIT and STL apply though PIT and STL aren't really the same teams since the deadline, so I might exclude them.

[G's pks]

If you feel this is going to work....please start a thread in the baseballl forum... I am so burnt out on stats right now..just applying them to my thread... GL G...

[dj80d]

im intrested to see how this go's

[Panekkkk]

If you feel this is going to work....please start a thread in the baseballl forum... I am so burnt out on stats right now..just applying them to my thread... GL G...

G, this is that thread lol

K can you clarify your system? If the team goes OVER the closing total the first game of a 3-game (or 4-game) series, or is it OVER 8.5 the first game, then chase the UNDER in the last two. Also remember that covers.com are closing totals not opening lines.

[keyboarding]

K can you clarify your system? If the team goes OVER the closing total the first game of a 3-game (or 4-game) series, or is it OVER 8.5 the first game, then chase the UNDER in the last two. Also remember that covers.com are closing totals not opening lines.

It is based on the closing totals of the first game of a 3 or 4 game series. You should always chase the last 2 games, and I think that means even waiting until game 3 of a 4 game series, to avoid getting in too deep on the chase.

I'm going to expand the team research and see how high up I can go on the ranking before the losses start showing up.

I also realized that the trades made will affect the team rankings, something to consider.

[keyboarding]

Just added PIT, and while they only had 1 viable series, it came through. The other two also came through, but against powerhouse teams, I never would have bet them.

[keyboarding]

Added STL, they go 4-0. Brings the record to 23-2.

[G's pks]

Just added PIT, and while they only had 1 viable series, it came through. The other two also came through, but against powerhouse teams, I never would have bet them.

But that is the key...you bet what the system tells you...not what you want to bet... Keep it coming...

[keyboarding]

I'm now going to start adding the "third tier" teams and their outcomes. These are teams that accumulated a total of 900 to 950 runs this season.

[keyboarding]

Third Tier

Powerhouse Teams (Outcomes excluded from system)
Losses

HOUSTON (4-2)
04/21 LAD 8-5/10.5 6-5/9.0 0-2/8.5
05/22 TEX 5-6/10.5 3-6/10.0
06/05 PIT 9-1/9.0 4-6/8.0 4-6/9.0
06/26 DET 4-5/7.5 8-1/9.5
07/09 PIT 10-11/8.5 6-5/8.5 2-13/9.0 5-0/9.0
07/24 NYM 5-4/7.5 3-10/9.0 3-8/9.0

DETROIT (3-1)
04/10 TEX 15-2/10.0 4-3/10.5
05/01 CLE 5-6/10.0 9-7/10.0 3-1/9.0
05/15 OAK 14-1/9.0 9-1/9.0 11-7/9.5
06/19 MIL 10-4/10.0 9-5/10.5 3-2/8.0
06/23 CHC 5-4/8.5 5-3/8.5
07/21 SEA 9-7/9.0 1-2/8.0
08/03 BAL 6-5/8.0 2-8/8.5 4-2/9.0

[keyboarding]

HOU, the first team on the third tier is not looking worthwhile, going 4-2. Most surprising is that one of the losses comes from a series against a fourth tier opponent.

[keyboarding]

DET goes 3-1 with 3 wins against powerhouse teams being excluded.

[keyboarding]

I am going to stop analyzing third tier teams and start backdating fourth tier teams in 2008 to see if there is any way to predict run production.

[keyboarding]

Fourth Tier 2008

Powerhouse Teams (Outcomes excluded from system)
Losses

TORONTO (1-2)
07/08 BAL 7-6/8.5 9-8/8.5 6-5/8.5
08/22 BOS 4-8/9.0 11-0/9.0 5-6/9.0
09/02 MIN 7-5/8.5 5-4/8.5 9-0/8.5
09/05 TB 6-4/7.5 7-4/8.5 1-0/8.5

OAKLAND (3-0)
07/11 LAA 9-2/8.0 1-4/7.0
07/25 TEX 6-14/8.0 4-9/8.5 6-5/9.0
08/15 CHW 6-4/8.5 1-2/8.0
09/16 LAA 8-1/7.5 3-2/7.5

TAMPA BAY (4-1)
07/04 KC 11-2/9.0 3-0/8.0
08/18 LAA 6-4/9.0 4-2/7.5
08/26 TOR 2-6/7.0 1-0/8.5
08/29 BAL 14-3/7.5 10-9/9.5 10-4/9.0
09/02 NYY 2-7/8.5 4-8/9.5 7-5/9.0
09/15 BOS 5-13/8.0 2-1/8.5
09/18 MIN 8-11/8.5 11-1/9.5 7-2/8.0 1-4/8.0

LOS ANGELES ANAHEIM (4-0)
07/04 TOR 8-2/7.5 5-7/6.5 7-1/8.5
07/18 BOS 11-3/8.0 4-2/8.0
08/04 BAL 6-5/9.0 0-3/10.5
08/08 NYY 10-5/10.0 11-4/9.0 4-3/9.0
08/28 TEX 7-5/10.0 3-1/9.5
09/08 NYY 12-1/9.5 1-7/9.0
09/11 SEA 7-4/8.0 5-3/8.5
09/26 TEX 1-12/8.5 4-8/9.0 7-0/9.0

[keyboarding]

I've been looking at the 2008 season and creating ranked patterns of production for each team. I think put the top 4 and bottom 4 teams as powerhouses and overachievers (the teams to chase unders with). The issue with these results is that BAL became a powerhouse in August, which should void the 08/29 game against TB, however, going with a static system based on July standings, I'll keep it in for now until I do some more research. NL to come.

[keyboarding]

Also, as a thought, perhaps a staggered betting approach makes sense, since it appears less games are won in 2/3 and 2/4 than they are in 3/3 and 3/4 and 4/4. Also safe guards against taking big hits chasing a losing series.

[keyboarding]

Actually, I need to re-rank powerhouse teams at the start of each month, since I can't predict where teams will end up at the end of the season. In 2008, that means BAL becomes a powerhouse in August and BOS loses its powerhouse status.

[keyboarding]

Nevermind about the staggered betting.

[keyboarding]

I applied the theory to 2008 data, proved unstable.