Joba leads Yankees in rubber game with Rays
Joba leads Yankees in rubber game with Rays
After splitting the first two games, the Yankees and Rays square off in the finale of their three-game set in the ESPN Wednesday night broadcast with Joba Chamberlain taking on Matt Garza from the Trop in St. Pete.
It only looks like a coin flip.
The New York Yankees (61-39, +0.96 units) and the Tampa Bay Rays (55-46, +1.81 units) have split the 10 games between them this season, as well as the first two games of their current series at Tropicana Field. The rubber match is Wednesday night at 7:08 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, and it’s a saw-off according to the betting odds. Each team is priced at -110 with a total of nine runs at most shops, with 8½ also available.
I preach it because it’s true: Handicapping is all about finding the difference in betting value between two teams. The Yankees have been carrying ridiculous chalk all season; they’re 6.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the American League East, but the Rays have been more profitable up to this point. They’re up 0.30 units in this series and 2.16 units over their past 10 meetings.
It follows that you’re paying a premium if you’re in the market for the Yankees on Wednesday night – or getting a discount if you like the Rays. One reason to pay the premium would be New York’s surge to the top of the division with 10 wins in their last 12 games. On further inspection, nine of those wins were during a 10-game home stand that included the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland Athletics, sitting at the bottom of their respective divisions at 42-57. Tampa Bay went 5-5 during this time, but on a more difficult 10-game road swing that featured the 40-59 Kansas City Royals as the only softie on the schedule.
The pitching matchup tilts in favor of Tampa Bay according to the stats:
The big difference in their VORP numbers is due to workload. Garza has pitched 129.2 innings over 20 starts for the Rays; Chamberlain’s odometer is at 102.2 innings after 19 starts, and he’s coming up very close to the end of his 160-inning warranty. That’s when the Yankees are expected to shut him down to protect his rotator cuff from the tendinitis than set in last year. Chamberlain has only gone seven innings once in his last nine starts, last week against Oakland (+180). Garza is coming off a complete-game 4-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays (-144) and has gone at least seven innings in nine of his 20 starts.
This matters because the Rays have a much better relief corps at their disposal, fourth in the majors with a 3.52 team ERA. The Yankees are a mediocre No. 18 with an ERA of 4.07. They only have two guys performing well right now: holder Phil Coke (3.80 ERA, 4.31 xFIP) and closer Mariano Rivera (2.11 ERA, 2.14 xFIP). The very good news for Yankees fans is that neither was used in the first two games of the series, so if Chamberlain can go six innings, Coke and Rivera can take it from there.
As usual, the Yankees are letting their bats do the talking. They have a .833 team OPS on the season and .877 since the All-Star break. The Rays have some pop themselves at .793 on the season, although only .681 since the break – again, against stronger opposition than the Yankees. Even factoring in the extra bases the Rays pick up with their speed, the difference in hitting over the entire year is still significant; New York is outscoring Tampa Bay 5.56 runs (first in the majors) to 5.21 (fourth overall).
That difference may be enough to cancel out the pitching advantage Tampa Bay appears to have in this matchup, but it still doesn’t compensate for that extra premium Yankees supporters have to pay at the betting window. Both teams are pretty healthy as well right now, all things considered. This should be an excellent game worthy of the national TV spotlight.
After splitting the first two games, the Yankees and Rays square off in the finale of their three-game set in the ESPN Wednesday night broadcast with Joba Chamberlain taking on Matt Garza from the Trop in St. Pete.
It only looks like a coin flip.
The New York Yankees (61-39, +0.96 units) and the Tampa Bay Rays (55-46, +1.81 units) have split the 10 games between them this season, as well as the first two games of their current series at Tropicana Field. The rubber match is Wednesday night at 7:08 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, and it’s a saw-off according to the betting odds. Each team is priced at -110 with a total of nine runs at most shops, with 8½ also available.
I preach it because it’s true: Handicapping is all about finding the difference in betting value between two teams. The Yankees have been carrying ridiculous chalk all season; they’re 6.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the American League East, but the Rays have been more profitable up to this point. They’re up 0.30 units in this series and 2.16 units over their past 10 meetings.
It follows that you’re paying a premium if you’re in the market for the Yankees on Wednesday night – or getting a discount if you like the Rays. One reason to pay the premium would be New York’s surge to the top of the division with 10 wins in their last 12 games. On further inspection, nine of those wins were during a 10-game home stand that included the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland Athletics, sitting at the bottom of their respective divisions at 42-57. Tampa Bay went 5-5 during this time, but on a more difficult 10-game road swing that featured the 40-59 Kansas City Royals as the only softie on the schedule.
The pitching matchup tilts in favor of Tampa Bay according to the stats:
- Joba Chamberlain: 3.86 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, 14.7 VORP
- Matt Garza: 3.68 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 30.2 VORP
The big difference in their VORP numbers is due to workload. Garza has pitched 129.2 innings over 20 starts for the Rays; Chamberlain’s odometer is at 102.2 innings after 19 starts, and he’s coming up very close to the end of his 160-inning warranty. That’s when the Yankees are expected to shut him down to protect his rotator cuff from the tendinitis than set in last year. Chamberlain has only gone seven innings once in his last nine starts, last week against Oakland (+180). Garza is coming off a complete-game 4-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays (-144) and has gone at least seven innings in nine of his 20 starts.
This matters because the Rays have a much better relief corps at their disposal, fourth in the majors with a 3.52 team ERA. The Yankees are a mediocre No. 18 with an ERA of 4.07. They only have two guys performing well right now: holder Phil Coke (3.80 ERA, 4.31 xFIP) and closer Mariano Rivera (2.11 ERA, 2.14 xFIP). The very good news for Yankees fans is that neither was used in the first two games of the series, so if Chamberlain can go six innings, Coke and Rivera can take it from there.
As usual, the Yankees are letting their bats do the talking. They have a .833 team OPS on the season and .877 since the All-Star break. The Rays have some pop themselves at .793 on the season, although only .681 since the break – again, against stronger opposition than the Yankees. Even factoring in the extra bases the Rays pick up with their speed, the difference in hitting over the entire year is still significant; New York is outscoring Tampa Bay 5.56 runs (first in the majors) to 5.21 (fourth overall).
That difference may be enough to cancel out the pitching advantage Tampa Bay appears to have in this matchup, but it still doesn’t compensate for that extra premium Yankees supporters have to pay at the betting window. Both teams are pretty healthy as well right now, all things considered. This should be an excellent game worthy of the national TV spotlight.
