Minny vs. Oakland - What the hell happened

PAPSMEAR · 07-21-09, 07:15 AM

It's called a good old fashioned CHOKE

chaseman · 07-21-09, 07:20 AM

It went choke, choke, choke, grand slam, choke, choke, end of 9th. Awful, just awful to watch.

themajormt · 07-21-09, 07:35 AM

I woke up at 530am and checked my online account and it was $650 off... Cost me $300 on minny and $350 on a parlay. UN fukking real

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 07:58 AM

Ouch major, yeah that's a rough one, had a fair size SU play on it and pretty much added it to my bankroll. Until of course it wasn't there in the morning lol

themajormt · 07-21-09, 08:02 AM

Me too man... I also had Minny runline the other night and of course Kinsler hits a walk off TWO run homerun in stead of just getting a hit and knocking in the guy on second.

oiler · 07-21-09, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Go to bed with a 6 run lead, figured it was money in the bank.

Someone mentioned a bad call?

WTF 6 runs to Oakland ... really!?

all i know is the under on todays game looks pretty good to me today

themajormt · 07-21-09, 08:09 AM

Why do you say that??? I am actually looking at the over based on the teams using their bullpens so much lastnight...

oiler · 07-21-09, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by themajormt

Why do you say that??? I am actually looking at the over based on the teams using their bullpens so much lastnight...

this is something ive noticed in the past 5 years.anytime two teams score more than 20 runs in a game ,the following game 74 per cent of the time ,they go under..just something i follow.no other reason but that.u can take it ant way u want but thats how i came up with that

themajormt · 07-21-09, 08:20 AM

Thanks for the info!

oiler · 07-21-09, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by themajormt

Thanks for the info!

like i said its just my info not telling you to play the under but im definetly going that way.another quick note;any team that has stayed under for 5 games in a row the probablity of going over is 82 per cent

themajormt · 07-21-09, 08:28 AM

Have you tracked how often in a season you find a team going under 5 games in a row? The Yanks are 3 in a row right now right?

oiler · 07-21-09, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by themajormt

Have you tracked how often in a season you find a team going under 5 games in a row? The Yanks are 3 in a row right now right?

well they are definetly overdue and by them playing at home .the over also looks like a good bet.but if u give me some time today and can give u some kind of stat for that

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by oiler

this is something ive noticed in the past 5 years.anytime two teams score more than 20 runs in a game ,the following game 74 per cent of the time ,they go under..just something i follow.no other reason but that.u can take it ant way u want but thats how i came up with that

I will backcheck this right now. Results in 5.

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 08:51 AM

500: Internal Server Error

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?text=%28P%3Aruns+%2BPo%3Aruns%29%3E%3D20+and+season%3D2009%2C2008%2C2007%2C2006%2C2005

(Divide the under results by 2, because each game is represented twice) but betting the under when teams score 20 or more runs the previuos matchup generally produces positive results but not always.

themajormt · 07-21-09, 09:09 AM

Panek I like your style and have noticed you and I are on the same page on a good portion of stuff... If you're down, you want to start comparing some picks and info sharing and see what we can do? I am NOT a trends guy but definitely take those into consideration. I just look at what team I think is going to fukking win and sit back and pray.... The Twins can still go fukk themselves...

themajormt · 07-21-09, 09:10 AM

I look at previous results, pitcher vs current lineup, road and away production, etc...

oiler · 07-21-09, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...%2C2006%2C2005

(Divide the under results by 2, because each game is represented twice) but betting the under when teams score 20 or more runs the previuos matchup generally produces positive results but not always.

well its my opionon and i told him that and said its how i play but maybe not his cup of tea,i never said it was a lock

themajormt · 07-21-09, 09:16 AM

Oiler dont take Panek or my replies too heart, we GREATLY appreciate your insight and thoughts and stats sharing. I am not criticizing, just asking questions to better understand what you are saying. And I would never get mad at someone for giving their insight and advise and it not working out like we thought it would...

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 09:18 AM

Let the over get hammered by the public though to get a better number. I would aim for 9.

themajormt · 07-21-09, 09:20 AM

Agreed, the public is going to see a 20 run game and bet the over... At least we hope...

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 09:20 AM

Exactly Oiler, it was a great insight. Comments like that help generate system ideas and plays. As you can see, playing the under is actually pretty profitable after the previous matchup yields 20 or more runs. This doesn't mean it's perfect, but it should add to your capping ability. The books probably know this, which is why today's number is still pretty low. But I imagine the public will hit the over so you might be able to buy up to Under 9 for like -120 once the line moves to 8.5.

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 09:22 AM

Major, I totally stopped trying to cap games using all the stats etc. and instead just stick to my "Betting Favourites System" now. Interleague completely killed me. I was up 25 or so units and then lost it all to interleague. I'm now relying on systems with the odd play sprinkled in

. For me, it's much less stressful and takes much less time!

oiler · 07-21-09, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Exactly Oiler, it was a great insight. Comments like that help generate system ideas and plays. As you can see, playing the under is actually pretty profitable after the previous matchup yields 20 or more runs. This doesn't mean it's perfect, but it should add to your capping ability. The books probably know this, which is why today's number is still pretty low. But I imagine the public will hit the over so you might be able to buy up to Under 9 for like -120 once the line moves to 8.5.

no i wasnt taking it personally.i was just saying i kept track of that and if it gives me an edge against the book ,i will take it.but would never say its a lock cqause there is no such thing as a lock

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 09:25 AM

Ah k, good insight

themajormt · 07-21-09, 09:28 AM

Understood... I am getting 8 -125 right now... who has an 8.5?

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 09:32 AM

It should move soon hopefully. The problem is baseball is so tight that only the big teams see significant line changes because of the public (Yanks, Dodgers, etc.)!

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 09:33 AM

-125 is about as big as you can go before the line moves though :P

oiler · 07-21-09, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by themajormt

Understood... I am getting 8 -125 right now... who has an 8.5?

yeah im getting the same line but hopefully it will move up

themajormt · 07-21-09, 10:13 AM

I can get under 8 at +110... When they move to 8.5 its going to be -115 probably...

Rio DiNero · 07-21-09, 11:11 AM

I still can't get over this game. What's even worse than that 7 run 7th was the top of the 9th when Minny should have tied the game on a passed ball (they also had a runner moving to third on the play) and the umpire, who had enough work for the night, decided to end the game when the replay showed the runner was clearly safe at home.

Panekkkk · 07-21-09, 11:38 AM

Yah I saw the replay later this morning. BS man. Clearly safe.

Wilforth · 07-21-09, 11:51 AM

I thought the whole game was a show!