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LA Dodgers ML, 1.84 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u playComment -
<b>Washington Nationals (Scherzer) ML, 1.719 (Pinnacle), Stake: 2u play</b>
I Like the Nationals in this game and Scherzer to get his first win here against Wheeler. He has been unfortunate to be 0-2 with a solid era of 2.13 but he should get plenty of run support against Wheeler who has struggled in Citi Field. Scherzer has gone on to win his last five starts here (7-2 lifetime) with a 1.98 ERA and it’s a good spot as any to back him to get his first win here.
<b>Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman) @ Cleveland Indians Under 7.5 Runs, 1.885 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u</b>
Like this one to go back to being more scoring after scoring 9 runs yesterday. The Indians offense has looked a bit better but I think behind Stroman the Blue Jays could really try and grind this one out for a win against Clevinger.
Both pitchers have looked solid in their outings so far drilling plenty of strikeouts so far and a bit with Toronto’s struggling offense should make this a low scoring one.
<b>Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) ML, 1.757 (Pinnacle), Stake: 2u play</b>
Delschlafani was solid in his 2019 debut but had issues with the Pirates last year, serving up eight runs in 15 innings, and he owns a 2-4 record with a 3.83 ERA in nine career starts against the divisional foes.
Even though Archer hasn’t got much to go by against the Reds I still expect him to be solid after a good outing against the Cardinals, and against a team averaging 1.57 runs it should be easier
<b>San Diego Padres (Strahm) ML, 2.08 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u play</b>
Bit more of a fade on Wainwright who’s 37 at the moment and looked his age. His opponent wasn’t much better in his debut but I expect him to turn it around.Comment -
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<b>Tampa Bay Rays (Snell) -1.5, 2.10 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
The White Sox go from one team thats been scoring to another. It'll be a tough task scoring against this Rays pitching who have allowed just nine earned runs in 50 innings and the team owns a 1.88 ERA overall which is the best in the majors through 10 contests.
And it'll be even tougher going against Snell who has been unhittable at the moment who is 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA in four career turns against the White Sox. Whilst Rodon has been ok for the White Sox and one of their better pitchers his runners don't give him a lot of support and they've been 1-4 in his last five starts.
Look for Tampa to get the win to start off this series.
<b>Chicago Cubs (Lester), ML, 1.843 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
I am siding with the Cubs especially considering this generous line. Jon Lester went 4-1 with a solid 3.09 ERA in four starts against the Pirates last season, and Lester has pitched well in his two starts this season.
Furthermore, while early, the Cubs need to start winning some games after starting the season with a 2-7 record, and I expect them to come out determined in this one. The Pirates are missing regulars Gregory Polanco and Corey Dickerson for this one, so this is a good opportunity for the Cubs pitching staff as a whole to get back on track.
<b>Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) ML, 1.847 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
This is another fade on Homer Bailey but I do like the Mariners to take this one. Felix Hernandez had a horrible season last year, but he looked good in his first start this year and he will be facing Homer Bailey, who has just been bad in his career overall. Bailey did not look good in his first start and behind him is one of the worst pens in the league. The Royals have a better offense than last year, but their pitching is still horrible and the Mariners have one of the best offenses in the league. The Mariners have won the last five games in this series and I look for that streak to continue here.
<b>Atlanta Braves (Teheran) @ Colorado Rockies (Freeland) Over 10.5 Runs, 1.90 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
My numbers have this run total set a whole two runs higher then the actual total, so not surprising that it is high but I'm interested to see how this one plays out. Teheran traditionally does well against the Rockies but he struggles on the road. The Rockies managed to score runs against the Dodgers and both these pitching rotations have been leaky, so i'll follow this one with interest.
<b>Los Angeles Dodgers (Ryu) ML, 1.826 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>Comment -
I guess you meant "Chicago Cubs" instead of "Chicago White Sox".Comment -
Haha yeah cheers I’ve fixed it. Considering I’ve taken the Rays against them alreadyComment -
<b>Cleveland Indians (Bauer) ML, 1.649 on Pinnacle, Stake: 3u play</b>
I think the matchup here for the Indians is very good to get Kluber his first win. Kluber (0-2, 5.23 ERA) was a hard-luck loser in his season debut against Minnesota after allowing only two runs on four hits over seven innings, but he lasted only 3.1 innings and was tagged for six runs (four earned) in a home loss to the White Sox his last time out. In recent times against Detroit, he won all three of his outings and allowing only three runs and 12 hits in 23.1 innings while striking out 26 and walking two.
Zimmerman has actually been good in his two matches against Toronto and Detroit but Cleveland has traditionally been a tougher matchup for him. Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez is 5-for-10 with a homer and two triples off Zimmermann. First baseman Carlos Santana carries an eight-game hitting streak into the series.
I expect Kluber to get back on track while also benefitting from plenty of support. Cleveland is 5-0 in his last five starts against the Tigers, and 11-4 in in its last 15 at Detroit. The Tigers are 0-6 in Zimmermann’s last six starts against the Indians.
<b>Boston Red Sox (Sale) -1.5 RL, 1.885 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
The Red Sox had a tough opening to the season playing 12 road games on the West Coast but now they return for a divisional series, which will be very important when competing with other rivals for the AL East Champions later on.
Chris Sale has had an indifferent start so far but he will get a really good opportunity against the second-worst on-base percentage and fourth-worst batting average. Toronto is also only averaging 1.50 runs on the road this season.
Look for a big game from Boston's offense and Sale in their first game of the season to get a much needed win.
<b>Tampa Bay Rays (Morton) -1.5 RL, 2.03 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
I'm siding with the Rays again behind their 1-2 punch of Snell and Morton to get the job done and shut down a team whose done an okay job hitting at the moment. Morton did a solid job shutting out the Rockies and more or less I expect similar things tommorow. In nine of 11 games, Tampa Bay has allowed two runs or fewer.
The White Sox are playing a 36 year pitcher who was injured last year and it'll be a difficult first up task facing the Rays in this matchup. I don't see Tampa Bay being slowed down in the second match of this series.
<b>Washington Nationals (Strasbourg)/Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) Over 7.5 Runs, 1.97 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
This feels a bit low to me. Both bullpens have been incredibly leaky giving up multiple runs over the last few innings not just against each other but in NL games in general against divisional teams.
he Phillies are averaging a terrific 6.62 runs per game, and their pitching staff is carrying a 3.93 team ERA. The Nationals numbers are higher, with an average of 5.75 runs per game and a 6.08 team ERA.
There are multiple players in both lineups who should be able to generate runs and set up runs for their team mates to take this over the total.
<b>Seattle Mariners (Gonzalez) ML, 1.943 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
Hard not to side with the Mariners, based off what I've seen. Even if the team gets into a hole, the bats find a way to score runs and plenty of it. I haven't seen a team that has generated so many double digit scores this season the way these guys have.
That said however, this is a confidence pick in Gonzales, who has been effective in all three of his starts and has been using his change up to devastating effect early. The Mariners are also continuing to hammer any and all pitchers. Gonzalez has had some issues in the past against the Royals but I think the Mariners turn this one around to get the series.
<b>Texas Rangers (Minor)/Arizona Diamondbacks (Greinke) Under 8.5 Runs, 2.03 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
Interesting that whilst my numbers had the Braves/Rockies going over comfortably my numbers have this at roughly 2 runs under the set total so i'll make this one a play and see how it pans out. The Braves/Rockies scored 13 runs in 5 innings putting that Over comfortably.
There is a case to make here for the under as well...Minor is 2-0 with two saves, a 1.08 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, three walks and 16 strikeouts over 16.2 innings of work. Minor is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA, a 1.023 WHIP, two walks and 13 strikeouts over 14.2 innings in two career starts at Chase Field. Greinke is 3-6 with a 2.82 ERA, a 1.068 WHIP, 17 walks and 84 strikeouts over 92.2 innings of action. Greinke is 31-12 with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.133 WHIP, 95 walks and 347 strikeouts over 362.2 innings of work in 58 career starts at Chase Field.
He hasn't been himself this season but that may change tommorow. He can definately pitch better then what he showed. And with these somewhat struggling offenses, maybe we will see this one go Under.Comment -
<b>Cleveland Indians (Bauer)/Detroit Tigers (Boyd) Under 7 Runs, 1.98 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
This one was really tempting to grab the value on Detroit but it's hard not to respect what Bauer has done this season. Maybe if they drift I will consider it. But the under here is still a pretty solid angle. Bauer carries a streak of 10 hitless innings into his third start of the season, a Wednesday afternoon tilt at Detroit. The only hit he allowed in his first start at Minnesota on March 30. His lifetime record against the Tigers doesn't reflect his recent dominance against them winning all four of his starts with a 1.23 ERA while striking out 40 in 29 1/3 innings.
Boyd has also been racking up the strikeouts, 23 in 11 1/3 innings despite being 1-3 with a good 3.18 ERA. Against Cleveland his numbers are similar going 1-3 with a 3.09 ERA in eight career appearances, including seven starts, against Cleveland. And at home again I expect a good performance from him too. He also previously had a good outing against the Yankees, unfortunate to be tagged for the loss with one run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings on April 3. He notched a career-high 13 strikeouts in that game.
<b>Tampa Bay Rays (Glasnow) -1.5 RL, 2.06 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
Will side with the Rays who have scored 15 runs in this series despite being considered 'average' offensively. In Spring Training Glasnow went 0-5 but it's been a complete turnaround for him in the regular season going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two starts so far. He has allowed just one ER on nine hits in 11 innings of work so far. Previously his numbers did not look great on both the road and in March/April but it's hard not to ride with the Rays form when their pitching is surrendering only a 2.06 ERA while also ranking 1st in WHIP at 0.96 and 2nd in K’s with 119. Their pen ranks 5th in ERA at 2.44.
The White Sox are actually ok and have some nice young players who have made fielding errors but their pitching is horrid including current starter Lopez who has gone 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA in two starts so far. Lopez has allowed 10 ERs on 12 hits and eight walks while striking out just seven in 9.0 innings of work so far.
I expect Tampa to complete the sweep and their run of form here.
<b>San Diego Padres (Margevicius) ML, 1.943 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
Rodriguez has performed well in all three of his career outings against the Padres, but wins have been tougher to come by for the Giants’ right-hander. Margevicius has a chance to prove that he should stick in the starting rotation after back-to-back outings of one-run ball to open the season and the Padres should be able to bounce back following their worst offensive output of the season. He has posted strikeout rates of better than a batter per inning and never walked more than 1.89 batters per nine innings at any minor league level. That tremendous control has served him well during his cup of coffee in the Big Leagues, where he has walked just one batter through his first two starts. Margevicius has allowed just one run in five innings of work in each of his first two outings to enter with an 0-1 record and a 1.80 ERA.
San Francisco have also had some slight issues against lefties going 0-4 in their last four home games against a lefty starter. It wont be easier with their struggling offense which has been inconsistent through the first two weeks of the season and they lack the pop on offense to be a major threat on a nightly basis. San Francisco has batter only .200 as a team so far this season with seven home runs which ranks as the third-fewest number of long balls by a team this year.
<b>Washington Nationals (Hellickson)/Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) Over 9 Runs, 1.98 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
At 9 flat there is enough value with the odds at present for me to take the over in this matchup. Considering what we've seen from these teams and bullpens so far these series'. I mean the 7.5 yesterday was a good example...lol.
Anyway, Hellickson struggled in his lone appearance this season. And so has Pivetta. But the right hander has gotten significant offensive support to overcome a pair of four-run outings, including Friday’s meeting with Minnesota in which he was taken deep on two occasions in five innings of a 10-4 win. He was shredded by Washington last season, surrendering 17 runs on 23 hits–including seven homers–en route to posting a 1-3 mark in five appearances.
Multiple players on both teams have as of late been drummed into excellent batting rhythm and it's hard not to envisage opportunities to score runs through both the starters and bullpens. And much of what I said about the teams' leaky pitching is worth remembering here too, heh.
<b>New York Yankees (Paxton) ML, 2.05 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
I have this match slightly favoured towards the Yankees so I have no issue taking the odds where they are at the moment, pretty good value for a team like the Yankees who have been okay bit pitcher vs pitcher I don't think they are that much better then them. Paxton can more then hold his own here and drill those strikeouts when he needs to as season 2019 has shown.
Paxton's numbers at this ballpark aren't too bad either, and I think the Yankees can get some hits off of McHugh and stop this four game winning streak the Astros are on.
I think they can get a win in this spot.
<b>Los Angeles Dodgers (Maeda) ML, 1.99 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
I am going to side with the red hot Dodgers in this one. They've won five out of their last six games heading into Tuesday’s action, and they are piling on the runs, scoring at least five runs in five games in that span. They lead the Majors in several categories and they have four players that have already bashed at least three homers, and they rank second in all of baseball with an average of 7.91 runs per game. Also, the Cardinals are consistently giving up runs, allowing at least four runs in eight of their ten games of the season heading into Tuesday.
Maeda has been sharp so far, going for his third win and allowing one run in five innings on the road against the Rockies. He tallied a quality start against Arizona in his season debut, and he has allowed four runs in 11.2 innings on the season. Maeda has posted mixed results in his limited career action against the Cardinals, going 2-0 with a 4.19 ERA in 19.1 innings. Flaherty has been sharp so far this season but with the odds at present the way they are it's hard not to pass up on the Dodgers in this spot.
<b>Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff)/ Los Angeles Angels Over 8.5 Runs, 1.943 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
I had initially pencilled in the Brewers to win this and I give them a slight edge but I've changed my mind and gone with something I feel more confident in, which also has better odds. I am also a little reluctant to take on the Angels at home as they seem to be a completely different team so i'll side with this one as my numbers have both teams being able to score 4 runs.
Brandon Woodruff, who is currently working on a 6.00 ERA gave up four runs and six hits in four innings the last time he was on the mound, leaving open the possibility for the Angels to tee off at home. But I expect the Brewers offensively behind Christian Yelich who had a nice little back and forth between himself and Mike Trout to continue to provide run support for their pitcher. Any extra at-bats for the Brewers can quickly turned into a nightmare for the Angels. The Brewers are still one of the best hitting teams in the league, despite their inability to get on the board more than once in this outing.
Should be a good third game, I expect the players to put on a show for their fans.Comment -
Also in no way do I have any confidence in Yu being that short but I don't mind the 'Over' for a total if it is right for Cubs/Pirates (only h2h out at the moment on Pinnacle). Won't be fussed if I miss out but will keep an eye out for it.Comment -
Darvish is almost an auto fade nowadays. Guaranteed to walk 2-3 guys every inning.Comment -
is trout hurt? if so does that change your play?Comment -
Nah im gonna stick with it. For those who haven’t played it maybe leave it out if they’re not confidentComment -
<b>Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) ML, 2.38 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
There is enough value for me here to take Baltimore against Oakland who have been pretty ordinary on the road recently. Bundy has been bad for almost two seasons now, so it’s hard to trust him in any spot, but the Orioles are actually 1-1 in his two starts this year. Baltimore is in desperate need of a win and Bundy has actually has some success over the years versus the A’s, which gives me some hope for the Orioles in this game. I don’t have faith in Brooks despite his season-opening gem, so I’m going to take my chances with the O’s at home in this spot on Thursday afternoon.
<b>Los Angeles Dodgers (Buehler) ML, 1.709 on Pinnacle, Stake: 2u play</b>
Backing the Dodgers to get a much needed win in this series. It's actually not a bad spot for Buehler who's been good on the road going 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 starts dating back to last season. The best of those outings came Sept. 14 at Busch Stadium, where he held down the Cardinals on two hits and two walks in eight innings while striking out nine in a 3-0 victory. Plus he has the advantage in matchups against players such as Goldschmidt and Carpenter.
Wacha on the other side has been a bit different. He has struggled with his command and issued and eye popping 12 walks but when he does find that strike zone he can be a difficult pitcher to take on. That said I'm trusting the Dodgers to get the job done and provide run support which was lacking today.
<b>Seattle Mariners (Leake) ML, 1.813 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
<b>Atlanta Braves (Gausman) ML, 1.826 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play</b>
I am not too worried about the postponement stripping some momentum from Atlanta, which has won seven of eight after an 0-3 start, but an extra day of rest for Gausman could go a long way in negating that feeling. The Braves have a 2.63 staff ERA during their eight-game surge, and the day off will recharge a bullpen that threw seven shutout innings in Colorado. Matz hasn't lost to the Braves in the past but this lineup is a little different to the ones he has faced before. Gausman is also a lot better this time around and I expect similar quality like he showed against the Marlins.Comment -
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Brrrr spreadsheet is supposed to show I’ve added Colorado Rockies (Bettis) ML, 2.29 for 1uComment -
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G1 Orioles/White Sox*Comment -
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