2019 Major League Baseball Season, Picks & Analysis

Jeff_Black · 03-21-19, 12:08 AM

Is there a way for mysbrforum to show the bets before the matches start? I don't remember having this issue last year?
Anyway I'll post the plays as well...

All bets will include pitcher(s) listed.

Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi) ML, 2.13 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

The second part of the two game Japan series is on again tonight and as I hinted in yesterday's write up I am likely going to take the Mariners again and my numbers give the edge to the Mariners being enough value here to take them to win outright.Kikuchi knows what it’s like to pitch in Japan and that, plus the crowd, gives Seattle the upper hand here. In Japan he went 73-46 with a 2.77 ERA. And like the Japanese guys before him such as Ohtani and Tanaka they like to get their Major League Baseball careers off to a good start and make a statement in their first match. I think he is capable of doing that. Estrada while having a below average year for the Blue Jays and battle through back issues did beat Seattle in his lone start against them last season, allowing a run on one hit with two walks and four strikeouts in a 5-1 Toronto victory on August 4. But these teams are very different and they are in a completely different ballpark in another country.Look for the Mariners to sweep the series behind their big offseason pickup.

Conqueror · 03-24-19, 10:31 PM

Congrats!

Jeff_Black · 03-25-19, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Congrats!

Thanks, all day I was thinking I would take Oakland actually, then looked at a few different things and changed my mind. In reality the value with Seattle was excellent on both occasions.

Jeff_Black · 03-28-19, 01:25 AM

New York Mets (DeGrom) ML, 2.17 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u play
I see enough of an edge in the Mets with the odds at hand to take them here. Jacob DeGrom after a long off-season of waited was finally rewarded with his nice fat juicy contract, and now it's his turn to repay the faith. The Mets pairing of Thor/DeGrom were one of the few shining lights in an disappointing season where they ranked bottom 10 and in some bottom 5 for the majority of batting statistics. They actually started the season well, and scored runs, but that really dried up as well. Credit goes to KnowNothing for pointing this out at the time and the year before. DeGrom was actually very unlucky at times with the run support he got, despite pitching some excellent games and innings.In the Grapefruit League DeGrom struck out 20 batters in 15 innings, posting a 3.00 ERA in those games.But I think later in the game, the Mets will change things up in their lineup, going with lefties who match up well against Scherzer. In hope of bringing out their bullpen a little sooner which is okay but not as solid as the Mets IMO. So if it is a tight game, I can see the Mets squeaking through in it.

Atlanta Braves (Teheran)/Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) Over 8 Runs, 1.892 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1.5u play
The Braves and Phillies series kicked off on opening day last season but these lineups are most certainly different compared to then. Despite Nola not really being a pitcher I like to back too often especially with the chalk on offer, and rather fade, I can see runs being scored in this game. I expect both teams to have solid .OBP (On-Base Percentage) Numbers in this game with a solid number of walks and both pitchers struggling to strike out guys. Especially with the Philadelphia Phillies with that lineup at their disposal. But the Braves should get some clean hits and scoring opportunities against Nola. Teheran is a two-time All-Star, but he was inconsistent with his velocity and location at times last season. I would almost say if you can get Over 8.5 at a nice juicy number to take that, but it's opening day and hard to pinpoint things exactly so we'll go with a more safer option. But the Phillies at home with their $330 million dollar man? Yeah you'd expect them to make a splash on their opening home game and signal to the fans their rebuilding is done.

cankid · 03-28-19, 02:18 AM

Nice start GL tomor

Louisvillekid1 · 03-28-19, 08:33 AM

Gl bro

Louisvillekid1 · 03-28-19, 06:54 PM

Excellent work

Fred The Hammer · 03-28-19, 07:14 PM

What a start!!! Impressive

Baseball and cfb are the 2 easiest sports to beat imo.

I started my thread with KC tonite. I think they surprise this year somewhat....atleast offensively. WS suck again. They're going to lose a ton again.....even in that shit division.

Also the MLB network had Arizona & Anaheim finishing 2nd in their divisions. Arizona may only beat SF this year. Absolutely no way whatsover that Ariz will be better then Col this year? Not happening. They may not beat SD either? Not impressed with the LA Trouts either? Oak is much better. Could be some value fading Ariz and Anaheim....esp the Dbacks imo

jd24 · 03-28-19, 08:34 PM

Great start Jeff_Black. How often will you post what you like?

leetreaper · 03-28-19, 08:39 PM

Subscribed

Jeff_Black · 03-28-19, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by jd24

Great start Jeff_Black. How often will you post what you like?

Hopefully every day (most) I think.

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Excellent work

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Gl bro

Originally posted by cankid

Nice start GL tomor

Originally posted by leetreaper

Subscribed

Thank you all!

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

What a start!!! Impressive

Baseball and cfb are the 2 easiest sports to beat imo.

I find baseball is the most rewarding for results when you do your research and such. I don't know about others but I can do all the research for something else and it just doesn't get up. I guess the format of it being two pitchers against two batting lineups is unique in a way.

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

I started my thread with KC tonite. I think they surprise this year somewhat....atleast offensively. WS suck again. They're going to lose a ton again.....even in that shit division.

Good win!

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Also the MLB network had Arizona & Anaheim finishing 2nd in their divisions. Arizona may only beat SF this year. Absolutely no way whatsover that Ariz will be better then Col this year? Not happening. They may not beat SD either? Not impressed with the LA Trouts either? Oak is much better. Could be some value fading Ariz and Anaheim....esp the Dbacks imo

I am not sure what to make of those divisions. Both look a little better. Astros will be tough, Seattle have changed things up. Early days to call I guess.

Jeff_Black · 03-29-19, 12:35 AM

St Louis Cardinals (Flaherty) ML, 1.98 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u playCardinals and Brewers games always seem to fun, going by yesterdays opening day match to begin this series, but one thing you can count on is that one team won't rest on their laurels if they lose. Not a bad spot for them to bounce back from the disappointment of having a HR taken away against Peralta, who made two appearances against St. Louis giving up four runs in 9.2 innings. Flaherty has gone ok in the past against the Brewers Flaherty lost his final start to the Brewers, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four starts against them a year ago–including a pair of dominant performances at Miller Park. The 23-year-old struck out nine in five innings of one-run ball in his 2018 debut and fanned 13 while allowing one hit (a solo homer by Jesus Aguilar) in a door shutting showing in June. Flaherty overpowered slugger Travis Shaw, holding him hit less in 10 at-bats with seven strikeouts. I also expect from the Cardinals point of view that they will get a better performance from Paul Goldschmidt who went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a walk.They've dropped five in a row to their division rivals, so IMO not a bad spot to take one back behind Flaherty on the mound, who will want to make a statement in his first game that he deserves to be in the Majors for a full season.

Toronto Blue Jays (Shoemaker) ML, 1.769 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1.5u playI am going to side with the Blue Jays in the second match of this series after the lineup could not do much against Zimmerman who tossed for 6.2 perfect innings before giving up a hit. Shoemaker battled injuries last season and only made sevens starts as a result. He logged a 4.94 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to go along with a 2-2 record in those seven starts. But with that said he tossed six shutout innings against the Tigers last season, and he features a 3-1 record with a minuscule 0.83 ERA in five career starts against Detroit. As much as I don't mind Boyd as an underdog for the time being I don't think the odds are high enough for me to be worth taking him. He's squandered seven runs in 13 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays last season, and he is 0-1 with a 4.30 ERA in five career meetings against his former team. On top of the Tigers road woes, and being 4-12 in their last 16 in Toronto Boyd went 3-10 with a 5.89 ERA in 17 road starts. Both teams are rebuilding/retooling call it whatever you want but now that the opening day game is out of the way I expect the better offence in the Blue Jays to get to work at home here and take advantage of their pitching advantage they have in this spot

Los Angeles Angels (Harvey) ML, 1.98 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u playOther then some average road numbers from the previous season this is another spot against a winnable pitcher where it isn't too bad to take the Angels. They were blanked by Fiers who pitched as well as he is capable of after dropping the Japan Opener but the Angels have plenty of players who can manufacture runs, and that starts by getting on base. Their best player with all these numbers did have a cramp late last game, but it seems like he's fine and should be in the lineup. Estrada against the Angels in six starts is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA, a 1.448 WHIP, eight walks and 24 strikeouts over 29 innings of work in those outings. He's also 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA, a 1.655 WHIP, four walks and eight strikeouts over 9.2 innings in his two career starts at the O.co Coliseum.Matt Harvey once upon a time had some high hopes placed on him as a pitcher for the Mets but these days he is just an arm for a rotation for the Angels. We know what he is capable of even though neither pitcher here has pitched against said teams and many of the rotation. With that said I actually like the over total of 8.5 for this matchup and it would make sense to get on that based off what we know and see from these pitchers. And with a 4-0 scoreline in the first game it wouldn't surprise me to see the Angels struggle one day and then excel the next. But like I mentioned there are many firsts here so maybe let's observe and see what happens. But if this game is going to be won at the plate, give me the Angels to hit Estrada early.

Jeff_Black · 03-30-19, 12:05 AM

New York Mets (Syndergaard) ML, 2.05 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u play
The Mets received some nice offensive benefits, notably from Robinson Cano who hit a solo HR but in this matchup which may be tougher to predict as both pitchers have had injury issues in 2018. That said 'Thor' was one of the better pitchers and a solid contributor to their start of the season. Like last year, when the odds are good, ill have no issues taking him and DeGrom when the price is good. And previous years pitcher stats against these teams did not include certain players like Cano so we have to take each matchup individually. Not only is newly acquired Cano a threat, but Wilson Ramos and rookie Pete Alonso also got hits in their Mets’ debuts as well to spark an offense that was 23rd in runs scored last season.I continue to expect big things from Syndergaard and his 2.80 FIP suggests that is possible. And I also expect his slider to be a difficult ball to throw against. Happy with that value to take the Mets again.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) ML, 2.21 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u play
Williams was one of my favourite pitchers to back last season when his odds were good, he had a bit of a dip when the Pirates struggle but he's also one of the reasons why they were able to finish over .500 last season. It was impressive to me, and in a spot to bounce back from their opening day loss for a team who won 14 of their last 19 matches against the Reds i'll take those odds. William's spring numbers were good allowing only three earned runs in 11 innings and against the Reds last season going 2-0 with allowing 2 runs in 11 innings. After the All-Star break he was 7-3 with a 1.38 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and .217 opposing batting average, and he has developed his curveball since then.Gray will probably not mind the pressure of not pitching in New York despite being a disappointment. But his spring was good too giving up just one run with 11 strikeouts in the spring. Offensively last year both teams were pretty even and with the trades/FA I don't think there is much between them. But with the odds on hand and the fact I have Williams rated higher i'll take the Pirates.

Houston Astros (McHugh) ML, 1.84 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1.5u play
The Astros had their letdown game against Morton (one of the reasons why I sat it out) but I think they get this series with a win over Glasnow who was a reliever but started for the Rays for 11 games last season. I think he has still some ways to go before being a solid starter but even with that loss we have to still remember the Astros are one of the best teams in baseball. We know what their offense is capable of belting three homers off reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and totaled 10 hits in Thursday’s season-opening 5-1 victory over the Rays. The offense should be able to help McHugh who was 6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2018. He went to the bullpen in 2018 after starting for the Astros from 2014 through 2017. The 31-year-old was better than ever in his new role, compiling an ERA under 2.00 while striking out 94 batters and walking only 21 in 72.1 innings of work. That should give him plenty of confidence as he heads back to the rotation. I expect the Astros to get a win here against Glasnow.

Jeff_Black · 03-30-19, 04:13 PM

Colorado Rockies ML, 1.775 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1.5u
Will probably play the Pirates ML tommorow if it’s likely to play but give me the Rockies to win this series after getting the first two already. Lopez actually had a decent Spring a 0.90 ERA and retired 16 batters but whatsoever lacking is everyone else around him both offensively and defensively. Their most experienced players are Starling and Castro and their bullpen has already blown two tight matches for them.
Anderson had some struggles in spring training but I’m confident he turns it around in the regular season and continues to get support from his bats. Blackmon has been nice to start the season and there are plenty of others behind him who could pick up the slack. The Marlins are going young but there are already concerns with their hitting.

2daBank · 03-30-19, 04:17 PM

Awesome start. Gl on the season.

Jeff_Black · 03-31-19, 03:50 AM

Thanks. Not as good today but back at it tommorow!

Washington Nationals (Corbin) ML, 1.724 (Pinnacle), Stake: 2u
Washington played their three best pitchers unsurprisingly in this matchup and lost their opening games. But I think they salvage the third here behind newly acquired pitcher Corbin who will want to make a statement for his first game at his new team.
This is a winnable game for the Mets against Wheeler, who made five starts in spring training this season, going 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA, a 1.133 WHIP, four walks and 10 strikeouts over 15 innings of work.
Wheelers numbers against the Nationals were not great going 4-8 with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, 31 walks and 64 strikeouts over 78.1 innings but this Nationals team minus Harper will need to find a way to score runs like they did in the second game.
Corbin’s numbers in spring training against the Mets in 2018 were not great though as I’ve mentioned the team is a bit different now but I think that first game will see him be more motivated to win and avoid the sweep. The Nationals numbers against right handlers and in the third game of a series following from last year were pretty good and I think Corbin finds a way to win this one.

St Louis Cardinals (Wacha) ML, 2.12 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u
Wacha has had some injury struggles that he has battled through but when he has been healthy he is one of their if not the best pitcher in the Birds rotation. I think the odds on hand are good enough for me to take him despite those injury worries last year that under the assumption he is 100% now and wouldn’t be considered if he wasn’t.
It’s also not a bad spot to grab the Cardinals to get their win back like they did in game two of this series with a 2-4 Loss in game three.
Wacha’s numbers against the Brewers are terrific...He has never lost to the Brewers, going 4-0 with a 3.76 ERA in 10-lifetime matchups, and last year’s win was his first in four tries at Miller Park while posting a 2.66 ERA. Before straining his oblique, he limited the Brewers to one run and two hits in 6 2-3 innings of a 6-1 victory at Miller Park.
He should bounce back as he has a lot of weapons at his disposal and he’s worked on elevating his fastball, which is really lethal.
Wachas numbers against the NL Central and the Cardinals’ results when he starts are both very solid and with a pending potential extension he will want to prove his worth right away.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) ML, 2.15 (Beteasy), Stake: 1u play

Postponed but hitting it again. Write as before.

Jeff_Black · 03-31-19, 05:29 PM

Atlanta Braves (Wright) ML, 2.36 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u play
Too much love and confidence in Arrieta but to be fair most of the popularity is because of Phillys form these last two days also.
So I’ll take the contrarian view and back the rookie who has also had a decent spring outing after coming out of the bullpen last year. Being a highly coveted draft pick and the Braves having injuries to their other starters this is a great opportunity for Wright to prove he deserves a spot in the rotation permanently.
Arrieta did have some minor surgery to clean up an issue he had in his elbow which affected him in the second half of last year.
Looking for the Braves to grab a game in this series.

rclang64 · 03-31-19, 06:27 PM

I should have subscribed a while ago! lol

Jeff_Black · 04-01-19, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by rclang64

I should have subscribed a while ago! lol

Argh got greedy with the last one and should have left it. But liked the odds enough for an Arrieta will probably decline enough in the next 18 months to make it worth fading.

Still pretty happy with how things have gone considering. I definately have a season long view so know there will be losing from time to time, provided there is more winning then I'll be happy.

I am definately the type that can go 4-1 and bang my head as to why I went with the one I loss. Gotta get that negativity out. I'm sure others feel the same at times...

Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) ML, 1.793 on Pinnacle, Stake: 2u play
The Pirates will open up their home game with Chris Archer taking on the 37 year old Adam Wainwright. Despite him being dominant against the Pirates in the past with 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA in nine games (eight starts) he has struggled at PNC Park posting a 7.31 ERA in four games (three starts) and there are a few questions about his health and durability.
The Pirates expect big things from Archer and Archer himself will want to prove he is worth their while trading for him. His problem is that he only throws a fastball and slider and tries to mix in a change with little to no success. Since he’s basically just a two-pitch starter, he runs into a couple of issues. Since hitters immediately see his entire arsenal, Archer struggles the second and third time through the batting order, when his ERA jumps from 3.65 to 4.95 and 4.50, respectively. Then, once he falls behind in the count, he comes back with his fastball in the zone and gets crushed. When Archer got ahead in the count 0-1, he had a 1.70 FIP for the at-bat. If he fell behind 1-0, that number jumped to 5.96 FIP. That led to hitters sporting a healthy .338 BABIP off of him last season.
But I think in this matchup he will do enough to get by the ageing Wainwright and start off Pittsburgh's home stead with a win.

Cincinnati Reds (Roark) ML, 1.892 on Pinnacle, Stake: 2u play
While I am not the biggest fan of taking Roark as a favourite, as he finished with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP paired with a 9-15 record in 180.1 innings which were shortened because of injuries. But with that said he was solid against the Brewers last season, holding them to four runs in 14 innings, and he features a 4-2 record with a stifling 2.68 ERA in 50.1 career innings.
Both teams have batters from each position that can generate runs but give me the advantage of the Reds in this pitching matchup to get the job done.

Detroit Tigers (Ross)/New York Yankees (German) Over 8.5 Runs, 1.909 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play
I like the 8.5 as a total as opposed to 9 or 9.5 when it comes to the Yankees. Ross posted decent numbers last season with the Padres but he's also playing in the American League now with the DH and that has showed having struggled against the Yankees in his 17 career innings, squandering 14 runs (13 earned) to go with an 0-3 record. Didi Gregorius is 3 for 11 against Ross, while DJ LeMahieu is 7 for 21, and Gary Sanchez is 1 for 1 with a home run.
Domingo German is a pretty handy pitcher having no problem striking out hitters last season, accumulating 102 strikeouts in his 85.2 innings, however, he finished with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP accompanied with a 2-6 record in 85.2 innings of work.
He also allowed four runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Tigers in his only career meeting against Detroit.
The Tigers also have players that can score runs against the Yankees. Christin Stewart was solid in his September call up last year, belting two homers with 10 RBI’s in 17 games. Stewart hit the game-winning two-run home run in the Tigers season-opening victory on Thursday. Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is hitting a terrific .316 with 49 RBI’s in 75 career games against the Yankees. Cabrera has started slow, going 2 for 15 in four games on the season. The Tigers struggled to score runs in the series against Toronto but I think they contribute to the Over here and get some runs against a hittable pitcher.

Louisvillekid1 · 04-01-19, 04:53 PM

Gl today

Jeff_Black · 04-01-19, 07:59 PM

Thanks. Not a great start but!

Los Angeles Dodgers (Urias) RL, 2.02 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u
Not one to try and take RLs as often as possible but in this position it’s not a bad bet with the odds at hand.
Whilst Pomeranz was decent in spring training, he struggled during the regular season going 2-6 with a 6.08 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, 44 walks and 66 strikeouts over 74 innings of work. He is also 1-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.277 WHIP, 15 walks and 31 strikeouts over 33.2 innings while going 1-3 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.318 WHIP, 11 walks and 22 strikeouts over 22 innings in five career appearances, four starts, at Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles has been pounding the ball in the first week of the season and looks to continue that trend. And with that Urias’ numbers in both spring and previous season have been solid. I expect the Giants to continue to struggle and the Dodgers to get a comfortable win in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) ML, 1.925 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u
Both pitchers are pretty unreliable at this stage and can give up runs.
This season will be about whether Hernandez can make changes to his pitching arsenal and tries to throw the curve more and use the fastball sparingly, a bit like LeBlanc does. He doesn’t have a mid-90's fastball anymore, and hitters sit on the change and thats where the hard hits come from.
Offensively though Seattle have been far better. They’ve been averaging 8 runs per game in these six games and have won five of their last six against the Angels. I expect them to get it done today too.

Jeff_Black · 04-02-19, 02:00 AM

Colorado Rockies (Freeland) ML, 2.37 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1u
There is always an interesting theory around pitchers who have career years and then fall off the radar the following year because teams figure them out. It happened to Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood who was almost unhittable the year before but I'd like to think fading Snell who may be overvalued isn't such a bad idea. The Rays have won four straight including a 7-1 win in the first match and I think the Rockies can bounce back here and snap their winning streak. I don't think Snell is that much better then Freeland then the odds indicate and I think the Rockies have more then enough batting power to do what the Astros did and get runs on the board.

New York Mets (Vargas) ML, 1.781 (Pinnacle), Stake: 1.5u
The Mets have opened up their series with Miami, with a win and I expect it to continue with a sweep of this series going into Games 2 & 3. They are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings here and Miami has lost 5 of the last 6 of Urena's starts against the Mets. Vargas got off to a poor start in 2018 but turned it around a little to make it more respectable. Against the Marlins where he has fared well, he went 1-0 with a stellar 1.64 ERA to go along with 14 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. Whilst Urena fared well against the Mets last season, going 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts versus New York and allowing only nine earned runs in 22 ⅔ frames. Overall I favour the Mets to get the job done on offense.

Seattle Mariners (Gonzalez) ML, 1.952 (Pinnacle), Stake: 2u
I will ride Seattle's form here. When you score runs, it's confidence boosting and sometimes at points later last season they struggled with that because there were a few guys who were maybe too comfortable being there. They have gotten great production out of their new guys and I expect that to continue. The Angels are still struggling to score runs and are not quite there yet, and have lost Justin Upton as well which may make things more trickier.
Gonzalez against the Angels is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.292 WHIP, 12 walks and 41 strikeouts over 43.1 innings. At T-Mobile Park Gonzales is 6-3 with a 3.62 ERA, a 1.248 WHIP, 18 walks and 89 strikeouts over 99.1 innings in 19 career appearances. He has given up runs against the A's and Red Sox but did enough to earn his team the win and against a team who's struggling to score at the moment, I think he will take advantage of it. Cahill struggled in his opening loss to the As throwing six innings, allowing four runs on six hits with a walk and three strikeouts in a 4-0 loss. I think he will have similar struggles against this Mariners team who is a bit different to the team he faced before.

Jeff_Black · 04-03-19, 12:55 AM

Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) ML, 2.02 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play
Give me the Brewers to sweep this series and continue their run of form. While Castillo has performed better here I think the Brewers offense is capable of giving him run support and getting hits against Castillo. And they'll rely on Christian Yelich again who feasted on the Reds pitching in 2018, registering a .482 average with seven homers and 17 RBI’s in 56 at-bats. The Reds have also started slow offensively, averaging 2.67 runs in their first three games of the season, despite some nice offensive numbers at times last season. The Brewers are averaging 4.60 runs in the early part of the young season. The odds to me indicate there is enough value here to side with the form team in the Brewers.

Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) ML, 1.751 on Pinnacle, Stake: 2u play
The Phillies had their fun Bryce returns to Washington game but despite the hype of that I expect them to ride the high of that win going into this second game of the series. Nola has been fantastic against the Nationals going 3-1 with a 2.14 ERA, slightly better then his season average. Anibal Sanchez will take the mound for his Nationals’ debut in this one. Sanchez enjoyed a resurgence to his career last season, but he's a year older at 35. He owns a subpar 4.50 ERA against the Phillies and the Phillies are red hot offensively at the moment. They have posted at least 5 runs in each of their first three games of the season heading into this matchup. Rhys Hoskins did more damage against the Nationals than any other team last season, launching five home runs along with 13 RBI’s in 73 at bats. Hoskins is looking good, going 2 for 6 with five runs scored along with five RBI’s through the first three games of the season. While the Nationals did go 11-8 last season against the Phillies the make up of these teams is different since then and I expect another good showing from them.

Chicago Cubs (Lester) ML, 1.925 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1.5u play
This one stood out to me right away, and I really like this ML play. I was actually disappointed I didn't get on him the first time around as his value should be good at the right price, not heavily juiced like it once was. He to date is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and will try to subdue Acuna and the rest of the Braves. The 14-year veteran fared well in the season opener as he limited the Texas Rangers to two runs and four hits in six innings in nine career starts against the Braves, Lester is 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA. He has 13 walks and 56 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings. He last faced the Braves in 2017, when he went 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts. He never has faced Acuna, but he has done well against Braves hitters such as Inciarte (1-for-16) and Josh Donaldson (2-for-12). Teheran got hit off the park against the Phillies allowing three runs and four hits in five innings, and he has actually gone okay against the Cubs going 3-1 with a 3.44 ERA in eight career starts against the Cubs. He won his lone appearance against Chicago last season despite allowing four runs in six innings.
That said the Cubs will want to bounce back from that very ugly 0-8 loss last game after a day to regroup and I think they'll find their opportunities to score runs this time around.

Minnesota Twins (Gibson) ML, 1.699 on Pinnacle, Stake: 2u play
This is more of a fade on Homer Bailey then anything, to be honest. He was an atrocious 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA losing his final seven starts and nine consecutive decisions since beating the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 12 for his last victory. The right-hander was 0-9 with a 6.52 ERA in his final 11 starts but was also the victim of poor run support as Cincinnati provided him with just 13 runs in those games. The Royals have shown they can score runs but the Twins should also see plenty of opportunities against Bailey as well. He's signed to a minor league contract and will probably get designated for assignment once the Royals season is more buried and they want to give some of the young guys a go. Dayton Moore's comments weren't exactly a big show of faith in what he can do.
Kyle Gibson pitched better last season than he did in 2017 when he went 12-10 with a 5.07 ERA, but did not have the record to show for it. The right-hander established career bests in innings pitched (196.2), strikeouts (199) and earned run average. I expect him to continue to improve after finally being healthy now

Jeff_Black · 04-04-19, 12:40 AM

New York Mets (Syndergaard) ML, 1.826 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1.5u play
We got great value out of the Mets on the road in their first two matches against Washington getting two solid pitchers for plus money. So it's no surprise that at home those odds are flipped. I'll still take them for similar reasons, and for Washington being on the road for the first time this season, and with Trea Turner on the disabled list. The Mets are off to a good start and I see no reason why their offense should fall off at the moment for the time being behind their best pitchers.

Kansas City Royals (Junis) ML, 1.961 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u
I don't mind this spot for Kansas City to bounce back after two disappointing outings against the Twins where they were let down by the bullpen. Against the Tigers who have been struggling to score runs a bit I think the Royals can get a win behind Junis who was solid against the Tigers going 4-1 against them with a 1.95 ERA in 2018, and owns a 5-1 lifetime record against them. Junis sports a healthy 2.46 FIP after limiting the current Tigers’ lineup to a .250 batting average in 80 plate appearances heading into Friday’s matchup. Turnbull was promoted to the big leagues from the minors after catching the eye of their manager. He went 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in four games (three starts) at the Big League level, but again finished with a respectable K-rate (8.27) and a FIP of only 2.85.

Toronto Blue Jays (Sanchez) ML, 2.66 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u
I am going for a bit of value here, and I see it is more then good enough for me to fade the struggling Indians at the moment. I think the price is a bit to overvalued for my liking. The Indians struggles are highlighted in the offense at the moment batting a poor .160 and have struck out 58 times. The offense has mustered a total of 13 runs this season. Even without Lindor and Kipnis the Indians have a few other players who should be able to pick up the slack so it'll be interesting to see how they continue to go without these guys there.
Toronto's offense has also struggled a bit averaging only 3 runs to start the season but their players have found their groove recently such as Grichuk and Gurriel Jr and I expect them to continue to find a way to score runs.
Both pitchers have had good starts to their season but Bauer has had trouble against the Blue Jays, posting a poor 6.07 ERA to go with a 2-2 record in 29.2 career innings, although he has seen little of their current lineup.

Jeff_Black · 04-04-19, 05:08 PM

leetreaper · 04-04-19, 06:10 PM

On Cubbies as wel,, let's get it bud!

Jeff_Black · 04-04-19, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

On Cubbies as wel,, let's get it bud!

Man they are awful ey. I mean I've watched tonnes of Maddon managed games because I've watched his Rays go against my Sox but other then having one of the best teams on paper in the Cubs (Thanks to Theo Epstein) for a few years the guy is really one of the most overrated managers going around.
And i've maintained this thought for several years.

Today there was not much that could be done with Fried throwing 5 perfect innings and stiffling the offense, but yesterday in particular I was annoyed he let Cishek walk three batters before hooking him in the 8th inning, as well as letting another reliever walk multiple guys (cant remember who it was off the top of my head) and by then the damage is done.
Thought Yu would go ok even though he walked several guys but it was a similar story unfortunately. Only guy I really trusted in their rotation is Lester and even that seems to be a stretch at the moment.
Frustrating but we move on. Today was bad, hopefully tommorow is better.

MalikHusam · 04-04-19, 11:42 PM

Mike Trout is so much fun to watch. Too bad he's on this shitty Angels team.

Jeff_Black · 04-05-19, 12:13 AM

Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi) ML, 1.877 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play
Whilst Kikuchi hasn't earned a win yet, he has still pitched well enough against solid batting lineups such as the Red Sox and As posting a 2.53 ERA with 8 strikeouts and one walk in 10 2/3 innings. The White Sox are probably not as polished offensively but they are also very young and will experience growing pains (The Mariners are the only team that have more fielding errors but have played more games then them) but they also more then make up with that offensively. Hopefully the weather for this match is stable as Lopez struggled in the wind at Kansas and this match was postponed because of poor weather. That said despite all this I am a bit surprised these odds are closer as I've liked what I have seen from Kikuchi and I think he will deliver the goods again here.

Cincinnati Reds (Gray) ML, 2.17 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play
Sonny Gray did not have a good debut for the Reds but now that the nerves of that first game are out of the way I think he will bounce back in this matchup, which I do like in the Reds favour despite them struggling to score runs at 2.20 per game but their pitching so far has held an ERA for 3.00 at the moment which is good enough to be in the top 10. Musgrove did toss two scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Reds last weekend but he's also surrendered 8 runs in 12 innings against them. As a starter I think the Reds take advantage of this and figure him out. He hasn't had much action pitching and may be rusty, and the Reds have players that can do damage against him, in particular Puig and Suarez.

Atlanta Braves (Gausman) -1.5 RL, 2.30 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play
I am backing the Braves to continue their run of form in this new series against the Marlins a team they dominated last season and against a pitcher they have fared well against. Lopez set a personal best against the Rockies for strikeouts but the Rockies have been struggling offensively a bit so far this season. The Braves will be a tougher matchup for him, they average five runs a game which makes them good enough to be in the top 10. Lopez also squandered seven runs (six earned) with an 0-2 record in his two starts against the Braves last season. Whilst the Braves pitching hasn't been fantastic so far Gausman fares far better in Atlanta at home with a 2.87 ERA, and I think the Marlins will continue to struggle to score runs against him.

Jeff_Black · 04-05-19, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by MalikHusam

Mike Trout is so much fun to watch. Too bad he's on this shitty Angels team.

Agreed, So much garbage in that team with some talent, with all the 70 year contracts players seem to get these days I wonder if his one will actually be the one where he stays with the same team for the majority of it heh.

And any talent they get they trade away, see Trenien

KANSAS24 · 04-05-19, 02:39 AM

Dude u falling fast!

MalikHusam · 04-05-19, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by KANSAS24

Dude u falling fast!

That just means he will not go tout any time soon!

Jeff_Black · 04-05-19, 07:44 PM

Edit: Annoyed it’s not showing up but I’m taking the Angels ML, 1.90 for 1u

Good spot then ever to take the Angels to win their second freaking game lol

Jeff_Black · 04-06-19, 01:04 AM

Washington Nationals (Corbin) ML, 1.84 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u play
I am going to take the Nationals again behind Corbin who continues his career best ERA of 3.15 in 2018. He was also solid in his debut against the Mets giving up 2 runs in their first win of the season.
Matz has surrendered 18 runs in 26 innings (5.88 ERA) to accompany his 0-3 record in six starts against the Nationals as well as going 1-6 at Citi Field last season.
Matz has played against Miami and did well against them but not looking too much into that game with how much Miami has struggled. Washington is averaging close to being in the top 10 for runs scored and I expect them to get some against Matz.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) ML, 1.787 on Pinnacle, Stake: 2u play
I am siding with Williams and the dominant Pirates in this matchup to get the job done again. Roark actually wasn’t too bad against the Brewers apart from a poor start but I think Williams can shut them down again.
They are 4-0 in this series already and have won 10 of their last 12 against the Reds. Williams has now won his last three outings against the Reds, going 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in 18 combined innings of work during that span. He sports a 3-1 career record versus Cincinnati with a 1.38 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in six appearances (five starts).
Hes also limited the Reds’ lineup to a hard hit percentage of only 30.6 percent and an average exit velocity of only 85.6 mph.
Roark had one of his worst years last year and it’s not going to get any better here. The Reds’ right-hander spun seven innings of two-run ball in his only start against the Bucs in 2018 and he is 2-1 with a 4.73 ERA in four appearances (three starts) versus Pittsburgh over the past three seasons combined.
Looking at the Pirates to get it done again.

St Louis Cardinals (Wacha) ML, 1.862 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1.5u play
Wacha was a bit unlucky not to get the win against the Brewers despite being solid and the bullpen blowing a backdoor Loss.
But here is another spot against a team where he is good against despite the Padres sending a solid prospect to the mound to counter him.
San Diego has really struggled to win in St Louis going 18-64 while Wacha has gone 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts against them.
Wacha was solid in his only start versus the Padres last season, dealing six innings of three-hit ball, while surrendering just one run and striking out five batters in a no-decision. Wacha went an impressive 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA at Busch Stadium last year.
I expect Wacha to post similar solid numbers against the Padres bats