FreeFall b4 bed plays

[FreeFall]

We'll I've noticed a trend with accuscore and I'd like to see if it's true and help me find the value plays for tomorrow.

7/1/09          AS           MB ODDS       LINE DIFF from AS fair odds
Oakland        53%          +117                     6.92% 
Seattle         45%           +158                     6.24%
Cardinals*    61%           -131                      4.29%
Texas           58%           -105                      6.78%

*I imagine the public will see their Cain(9-2) on the plate at plus odds and hit it hard giving me even better odds on the cards.

Anyone see anything wrong with this theory or idea? First I can think of is what is the error rate of AS lines. Are they correct?

[HoulihansTX]

Don't know how you jump off the Giants money train, while the cards are slumping currently.

[FreeFall]

3-1 +2.17

According to Pinnacles closing line
STL ended with -153 beat closing line by 22 cents
OAK ended with +109 lost closing line by 8 cents
SEA ended with +165 lost closing line by 8 cents
TEX ended with +103 lost closing line by 8 cents

Avg beat the closing line by -.5 cents

[FreeFall]

Passing on today. I wasnt up late enough to see AS get posted. But KC and Balt struck me as I looked now, but I want to be able to bet the opening line.

[FreeFall]

TOR +176
MIL +158
TEX +133
CWS +130
SDG +130

explanation like above will come later gotta run.

[FreeFall]

Toronto AS: 43% Line: 36% Diff: 7%.
Milwaukee AS: 44% Line: 38% Diff: 6%
Texas AS: 52% Line: 42% Diff: 10%
CWS AS: 49% Line: 43% Diff: 6%
San Diego: 52% Line: 43% Diff 9%

[FreeFall]

5-4 +1.8

[FreeFall]

Wash +134
sdg +152

[FreeFall]

6-5 +2.14

[FreeFall]

CIN +146 off by 6%
TOR +143 off by 6%
BAL +109 off by 7%

[FreeFall]

7-7 +1.57

AS stats arent up and im drunk and tired. PASS

[FreeFall]

ATL +122 diff of 7%
were some more, but I couldnt get the AS lines last night

[FreeFall]

7-8 +.57

[FreeFall]

BAL +100 off 7%
MIL +126 off by 6%
LAA +121 off by 6%

[FreeFall]

8-10 -0.22

[FreeFall]

LAA -103 off 8%
BAL -106 off 7%
WAS +156 off by 7%
CIN +130 off by 6%
SEA -106 off by 7%

Busy Saturday looks like books are trying to clean up with some offset lines. We'll see how they do.

[FreeFall]

12-11 +3.34 Nicely done!

KAN +278 off by 6%
LAA +134 off by 7%
SEA -141 off by 6%

[FreeFall]

BOL today all

[FreeFall]

14-12 +4.68

[FreeFall]

SDG +119 off by 7%

[FreeFall]

14-13 +3.68

[FreeFall]

HOU +152 off by 9%
SDG +143 off by 7%
KC +124 off by 7%
FLA +125 off by 8%
TOR -114 off by 9%

[FreeFall]

15-17 +106

[FreeFall]

CIN -106 off by 8%
FLA -117 off by 8%
KCR -119 off by 7%
TEX -111 off by 8%

[FreeFall]

CLE +107 off by 6%
PHI -123 off by 6%
CWS -134 off by 7%
WAS +118 off by 7%
KC +144 off by 6%
COL -136 off by 10%
TEX +107 off by 7%
DET + 134 off by 7%

[FreeFall]

17-25 -564

Rough day

Pending
TEX +107 off by 7%

[FreeFall]

BAL +180 off by 7%
CWS +105 off by 7%

[FreeFall]

18-26 -559

[FreeFall]

SDG +244 off by 7%
CWS -102 off by 8%

[FreeFall]

KCR +150 off by 9%
SBG +162 off by 9%
HOU +143 off by 7%

[FreeFall]

20-29 -609

[FreeFall]

ARI -115 off by 9%

[FreeFall]

20-30 -724

[FreeFall]

KC +215 off by 11%
LAA +150 off by 9%
HOU +168 off by 10%

[Masu485]

i'm doing almost the exact same thing now with accuscore. seeing your results scares the crap out of me though.

what i do though, is convert the no-vig opening lines into a percentage, and then compare it to accuscore's percentage, and make a value play no matter how much differential there is. there's usually a 3% difference on average. i wonder if there would be much difference in our results.