California unders

[spal2811]

i started playing em when you were 4-4........it has kept me even during a horrific last week or so. i also noticed in the last couple days other cappers choosing unders in late cali games.....dont know if it is a coincidence or if people have taken notice of your thread.....

keep it up enogs

[spal2811]

greeeaaat.....i didnt want to post that id been tailing fearing a jinx and sure enough all tonights games score multiple runs in the first inning.........

[Enogsiwon]

no big deal spal.. cant win them all .. just have to stay positive units.. all today did was keep the totals high for next week so we can keep chipping away.

0-2-1 today

12-6-1 +5.60 units overall


saturdays play

angels under (10) +100

[pimike]

Kepp it up. It is working. Once it gets to the point your barley up, you may back off of it.

Today was the first day I lost all three picks. I have not done that since the start of the season.

[Enogsiwon]

0-1 today

12-7-1 +4.60 units overall

no plays tomorrow

[cocknocker]

I did the research going back 3 years. You're dead on. I'm buying what you're selling. This should produce at the very least 70 or so odd more wins than losses when the year is over. Good find. I'm gonna tail your experimient and get paid too. F*ck that, You can't drive off and leave me! I'm about to ride shotgun with you on this. Of course you know that one I put it down that I endorse what you're doing, that your page will no longer be a secret.

Keep up the good work Now is gone!

[Panekkkk]

Can you guys think of any logical reasoning for this? Is it the environment / jet lag or have the West Coast teams simply been bottom rung producers over the last 3 years?

[spal2811]

well enogs you now have the seal of approval from ck...........id get ready for alot more tailers!

keep it up

[cocknocker]

Can you guys think of any logical reasoning for this? Is it the environment / jet lag or have the West Coast teams simply been bottom rung producers over the last 3 years?

It's the dampness in our air at night. The ball doesn't carry as well. All of the west coast teams in California play within 5 miles of the beaches and the Pacific Ocean. Hell the Giants stadium is basically IN the Pacific Ocean. Ours (A's) is just a stone throw to Alameda Beach, Dodger Stadium, Petco Park and Angels Stadiums are right there around beaches as well. At night the air gets really moist and makes the air heavy. Then there's the shadows that are present when the games begin, which help the first parts of games low since hitters have a hard time picking up the ball.

Teams coming in are already suffering fom jetlag. It takes a few days to get used to east coast/west coast time differential. There are so many factors involved.

[Enogsiwon]

Couldn't have said it better myself CK.. Thanks for the love..

The angels are starting to worry me the way they've been playing lately.

2 plays today:

Giants under (8.5) -105

Angels under (8.5) +100

[Panekkkk]

Guys, before you start a system, it is always best to backcheck it first. CK I'm not really sure what research you are doing but this system has been largely NOT profitable over the last 5 years.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?text=site=home%20and%20team=Dodgers,Giants,Angels,Athletics,Padres%20and%20NGT%20and%20season=2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004&sort=U_PL

That link will break it down for you. Unless I have done my query wrong, and I don't think I have, it seems like you should not waste your time on this.

Follow that link and you will see $ Under which equals the amount of money gained risking to win $100 or risking $100 (depending on the line) for the under.

Bookies aren't stupid and take all those factors discussed above into effect. Not trying to bash, just making sure y'all don't throw your money away. Again, I could be wrong so double check those results.

[curious]

It's the dampness in our air at night. The ball doesn't carry as well. All of the west coast teams in California play within 5 miles of the beaches and the Pacific Ocean. Hell the Giants stadium is basically IN the Pacific Ocean. Ours (A's) is just a stone throw to Alameda Beach, Dodger Stadium, Petco Park and Angels Stadiums are right there around beaches as well. At night the air gets really moist and makes the air heavy. Then there's the shadows that are present when the games begin, which help the first parts of games low since hitters have a hard time picking up the ball.

Teams coming in are already suffering fom jetlag. It takes a few days to get used to east coast/west coast time differential. There are so many factors involved.

SOOOOOOOOO, I put on my thinkin' cap and am wondering if Night California games are a better % for the UNDER.

And perhaps against a team that is coming in from east of the rockies.

And perhaps the visitor team is in the first game or two of the series.

Just wondering.

[Panekkkk]

Surprisingly, vs. East Coast teams the under fares worse at first glance.

[curious]

SOOOOOOOOO, I put on my thinkin' cap and am wondering if Night California games are a better % for the UNDER.

And perhaps against a team that is coming in from east of the rockies.

And perhaps the visitor team is in the first game or two of the series.

Just wondering.

Okay, I ran the stats for this for 2009. If you throw out April then all the teams except the Giants are +$ on the UNDER, I also included the Mariners because you don't get any wetter than Seattle's stupid climate.

Filtering by day/night did not change the stats very much.

Filtering by series game number also did not change the stats very much.

Interestingly, the other west coast teams contribute more to the UNDER games than visiting teams east of the Rocky mountains.

When I filtered out the games where the other west coast teams were the visitor team, the UNDER wasn't that good. Still in +$ territory but not that good.

So, at least for 2009, after May 1st, this is a good play.

The record leaving out the Giants and leaving out pushes is 60-86 (O-U).

The record with the Giants is 74-96 (O-U).

$ Won without the Giants is $1850 assuming a $100 wager on the UNDER. $Won with the Giants included is $1335 assuming a $100 wager on the UNDER.

Hope this is of some use.

[cocknocker]

Panekkk, I see that curious got the same numbers that I did. My sample size was from last year and this year and for some reason it didn't occur to me to look at ALL teams. I only factored in teams from the east coast. I will have to do it again like you and curious did in order to get more accurate numbers for ALL of them. I thought that this system was only for teams from the east coast coming to California for late games...Although Texas is basically in the middle of our country, lol!

[cocknocker]

Enogsiwon, don't pay any attention to us. We're just trying to fine tune it and tweek it a bit, but we won't take what you have started and destroy it. We're just wanting to know how we should approach the plays in such a manner as to make the winnings over 65% or so, so that what we do we can do without research in the future.

[Enogsiwon]

I think going back 5 years is too much.. The game is changing everyday.

I think that as more and more "baseball players" come back into the game with less PEDs being used the run totals will get lower and lower. I can't remember looking at the starting pitchers each day and seeing so many era's in the 2's and 3's..

I think you'll see slot more dominating pitchers over the next couple years.. This is why I'm looking to UNDERS and LAYING CHALK on dominant starters in the future.

The game is changing right in front of our eyes..you'll see the chuck carr's and juan pierre's start to resurfice back into the game. Now I'm just rambling..

[Panekkkk]

Well put CK. Not trying to bash the system just trying to fine tune it. I found it most profitable simply if you bet all California Unders only in May and June. No other filters seemed to help (pitcher ERA, WHIP, 1st game series, vs. East Coast, etc.). Will look more into this.

[Panekkkk]

SEA ain't in California curious

[Panekkkk]

I think going back 5 years is too much.. The game is changing everyday.

I think that as more and more "baseball players" come back into the game with less PEDs being used the run totals will get lower and lower. I can't remember looking at the starting pitchers each day and seeing so many era's in the 2's and 3's..

I think you'll see slot more dominating pitchers over the next couple years.. This is why I'm looking to UNDERS and LAYING CHALK on dominant starters in the future.

The game is changing right in front of our eyes..you'll see the chuck carr's and juan pierre's start to resurfice back into the game. Now I'm just rambling..

What you're forgetting is that the books aren't stupid. Totals may fall, but unders will not. Books will adjust faster than you will.

[Dexter]

i for one have always leaned more on the under with west coast night games compared to day games (esp in dodger stadium)..nice to see some validity to that theory.

[cocknocker]

But Seattle does have some of the most damp sky in our entire nation though, and that is what we are looking for. Heavy air! curious is correct in his thinking about including the Rockies home games too. Another thing is that the Rockies have a mystique at their stadium and it translates into inflated totals lines, although maybe they are higher during day games?

Also nowisgone's theory about the types of changes in players wll be different in the years to come. Take one look at what the Rays did last year with super speed. Teams are going to want to copy their formula

[pattymayo]

I think this idea is terrific... but why play every single 10pm West Coast game? Why not pick and choose and actually add stats/recent trends to it?

[Pick'nParlays]

[quote=Enogsiwon;2003260]I think going back 5 years is too much.. The game is changing everyday.




post steroid era..... very true

[curious]

SEA ain't in California curious

The reasoning why this was a good play was stated as:
1. Air is damp at night
2. Teams have to fly in and have jet lag
3. Shadows during twilight

Seattle qualifies.

1. It doesn't get any wetter than Seattle's stupid climate.
2. TEams have to fly in and have jet lag.
3. Shadows even during high noon due to Seattle's stupid climate.

If you check the stats you will see that Seattle is a good UNDER play, and I believe for the same reasons.

[Enogsiwon]

really don't like the way the angels are playing.. Not the same angels team were used to.. Might have sub in Seattle for the angels.. What do u guys think?

[Enogsiwon]

0-2 today

12-9-1 +2.55 units overall

0-5-1 last 6 but still positive

[Enogsiwon]

Sticking with the original plan for now. The angels are skating on thin ice.. Might just be that Baltimore and now Texas are in town..

Giants under (8) -110

Angels under (9.5) -110

[Panekkkk]

Enog, quit while you are ahead. There is no point playing a system that has shown to be largely unprofitable. Pack in your pride and save your cash. If you can work out some filters then continue but otherwise you may be in for some disappointment.

Jus' tryin' to help

GL

[Enogsiwon]

totally understand panekk.. But I'm following my plays.. Posting my records and tweeking them as I go..I will make this work. Time will tell

[Enogsiwon]

Angels kill the system again.. They are officially OUT. Seattle will take their place

1-1 today

13-10-1 +2.45 units

[pimike]

Angels kill the system again.. They are officially OUT. Seattle will take their place

1-1 today

13-10-1 +2.45 units

Seatle is not in California.

[cocknocker]

Seattle is not spelled Seatle

[Willie Bee]

Excellent, a geography and spelling lesson all in the same thread.

[pimike]

Excellent, a geography and spelling lesson all in the same thread.

Not sure why people get so excited over spelling.