Cardinals and Mets set for four-game series at soggy Citi Field
Cardinals and Mets set for four-game series at soggy Citi Field
Mother Nature didn't cooperate with the PGA this past weekend, and there's a good chance she won't cooperate with the Cardinals and Mets this week at Citi Field.
When I was looking ahead on the MLB schedule last week and saw the Cardinals and Mets squaring off in the lone NL-only series to start Week 12, I got excited about seeing a matchup of their two aces, Chris Carpenter (5-4, 1.53) for St. Louis and New York's Johan Santana (8-6, 3.22). Sure enough, the pair do meet head-to-head...but not until Game 4 of the series on Thursday afternoon.
That's right Tony, all you need to do
is win two of the first three games.
That game will still be a good one and part of what is shaping up to be a Thursday that also is slated to include a few other intriguing pitching battles that includes Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe meeting in the finale of the Yankees, Braves series and John Smoltz making his season and Red Sox debut in DC against the Nats' young Jordan Zimmermann.
The -120 line on the Cardinals for the series price (Mets +100 at TheGreek) is what I'm after here, and not having to include the Carpenter, Santana contest is actually a good thing since that will be a tough one to handicap. That doesn't mean there aren't some tough matchups to cap still, however, and the real bad news is the weather report makes it rather iffy on this series having action. More on that later.
The series opens at Citi Field on Monday night with Todd Wellemeyer (8-6, 5.36) on the mound for St. Louis opposite New York's Tim Redding (1-5, 6.27). Tuesday's game pits Joel Pineiro (5-8, 3.76) against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 4.18) and Wednesday finds Brad Thompson (3-1, 3.89) slated for the Cardinals against the Mets' Fernando Nieve (2-0, 1.84).
On the surface it would seem an obvious notion to give Wellemeyer and the Cards and edge on Monday, with Tuesday's initial nod going to Livan Hernandez. That would make the Thompson-Nieve matchup the series breaker, and a tough one to get a handle on with both arms having just six starts under their belts between them.
Thompson is in the St. Louis starting mix in place of Lohse and has recorded a nice 3.63 in his four trips to the mound to begin a game. Nieve is in the Mets' rotation for John Maine and has been a very pleasant surprise with New York winning both of his starts.
The two teams are evenly matched in terms of scoring with the Mets sixth in the NL at 4.62 RPG and the Cards just ahead at 4.65 per contest. That doesn't mean these are similar offenses though. St. Louis is relying on the long ball this year, fourth in the National League with 76 HR and 11th in steals with 35. New York ranks near the bottom in homers with just 43 as they jockey for the cellar in that category with the Giants and Pirates. The Mets are first in steals by a wide margin with 70, and second in on-base (.356) to the Cards' .330 which is 10th.
New York's running game will be tested in this series by St. Louis catchers Yadier Molina and Jason LaRue. Teams have attempted just 25 steals against the Cardinals this season, and Redbird backstops have caught 11 of those (44%). Molina has caught nine of 21 while LaRue has nailed two of four would-be thieves. Of LaRue's nine starts this year, seven have come with Wellemeyer on the mound, so look for that possible in Monday's series opener.
St. Louis has the edge on the mound where they are third in the NL in ERA (3.84) and total runs allowed, giving up about 0.40 fewer runs per game than New York. As far as closers go, the Mets have the bigger name in Francisco Rodriguez, but don't overlook the job that the Cardinals, Ryan Franklin has done this year. Franklin has done a much better job than Rodriguez when it comes to issuing free passes in 2009, walking just five in 27 innings while K-Rod has walked 17 in 33.2 IP.
Thursday's matchup is a dandy.
Anyone that was paying attention to the US Open this past weekend at Bethpage knows about the wet weather in the NYC area. That course is some 22 miles or so almost due west from Citi Field in Queens where rain interrupted play between the Mets and Rays over the weekend. Monday's forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain tapering just a bit to 40% on Monday night. Winds are currently listed for between 10-20 MPH out of the North (in from center/left-center).
There is at least a 30% chance of rain for Tuesday through Thursday as well. If any games is rained out, your guess is as good as mine as to when they would try to make it up. The two teams are scheduled to meet again in New York for a two-game set on Aug 4-5, but there's a hitch in trying to make them up then. The Aug 5 game is a 12:10 ET start and the Mets have to fly out after that across the Lower 48 to San Diego for a series against the Padres starting on Aug 6. So if they decide to make one up then it would have to be a day-night doubleheader on Aug 4.
The most sensible time to play the make-up would be this Thursday night after the regularly scheduled afternoon game. The Mets stay at home this weekend to meet the Yankees while St. Louis heads home to open their last interleague match against the Twins. If they were to play it after the regular Thursday game, it could throw the pitching matchups off that day so stay tuned.
I still like the Cards for the series, at least the first three games and assuming they all go off as planned. St. Louis comes in playing much better than New York recently and feel they have the edge on offense with the pitching, both the matchups and the bullpens, pretty much a wash. I'll play St. Louis with a series wager and if Wellemeyer can put the Cards ahead on Monday will consider hedging the series bet on Tuesday with a small play on Quarter Pounder (aka, Livan Hernandez).
Mother Nature didn't cooperate with the PGA this past weekend, and there's a good chance she won't cooperate with the Cardinals and Mets this week at Citi Field.
When I was looking ahead on the MLB schedule last week and saw the Cardinals and Mets squaring off in the lone NL-only series to start Week 12, I got excited about seeing a matchup of their two aces, Chris Carpenter (5-4, 1.53) for St. Louis and New York's Johan Santana (8-6, 3.22). Sure enough, the pair do meet head-to-head...but not until Game 4 of the series on Thursday afternoon.
That's right Tony, all you need to do
is win two of the first three games.
That game will still be a good one and part of what is shaping up to be a Thursday that also is slated to include a few other intriguing pitching battles that includes Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe meeting in the finale of the Yankees, Braves series and John Smoltz making his season and Red Sox debut in DC against the Nats' young Jordan Zimmermann.
The -120 line on the Cardinals for the series price (Mets +100 at TheGreek) is what I'm after here, and not having to include the Carpenter, Santana contest is actually a good thing since that will be a tough one to handicap. That doesn't mean there aren't some tough matchups to cap still, however, and the real bad news is the weather report makes it rather iffy on this series having action. More on that later.
The series opens at Citi Field on Monday night with Todd Wellemeyer (8-6, 5.36) on the mound for St. Louis opposite New York's Tim Redding (1-5, 6.27). Tuesday's game pits Joel Pineiro (5-8, 3.76) against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 4.18) and Wednesday finds Brad Thompson (3-1, 3.89) slated for the Cardinals against the Mets' Fernando Nieve (2-0, 1.84).
On the surface it would seem an obvious notion to give Wellemeyer and the Cards and edge on Monday, with Tuesday's initial nod going to Livan Hernandez. That would make the Thompson-Nieve matchup the series breaker, and a tough one to get a handle on with both arms having just six starts under their belts between them.
Thompson is in the St. Louis starting mix in place of Lohse and has recorded a nice 3.63 in his four trips to the mound to begin a game. Nieve is in the Mets' rotation for John Maine and has been a very pleasant surprise with New York winning both of his starts.
The two teams are evenly matched in terms of scoring with the Mets sixth in the NL at 4.62 RPG and the Cards just ahead at 4.65 per contest. That doesn't mean these are similar offenses though. St. Louis is relying on the long ball this year, fourth in the National League with 76 HR and 11th in steals with 35. New York ranks near the bottom in homers with just 43 as they jockey for the cellar in that category with the Giants and Pirates. The Mets are first in steals by a wide margin with 70, and second in on-base (.356) to the Cards' .330 which is 10th.
New York's running game will be tested in this series by St. Louis catchers Yadier Molina and Jason LaRue. Teams have attempted just 25 steals against the Cardinals this season, and Redbird backstops have caught 11 of those (44%). Molina has caught nine of 21 while LaRue has nailed two of four would-be thieves. Of LaRue's nine starts this year, seven have come with Wellemeyer on the mound, so look for that possible in Monday's series opener.
St. Louis has the edge on the mound where they are third in the NL in ERA (3.84) and total runs allowed, giving up about 0.40 fewer runs per game than New York. As far as closers go, the Mets have the bigger name in Francisco Rodriguez, but don't overlook the job that the Cardinals, Ryan Franklin has done this year. Franklin has done a much better job than Rodriguez when it comes to issuing free passes in 2009, walking just five in 27 innings while K-Rod has walked 17 in 33.2 IP.
Thursday's matchup is a dandy.
Anyone that was paying attention to the US Open this past weekend at Bethpage knows about the wet weather in the NYC area. That course is some 22 miles or so almost due west from Citi Field in Queens where rain interrupted play between the Mets and Rays over the weekend. Monday's forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain tapering just a bit to 40% on Monday night. Winds are currently listed for between 10-20 MPH out of the North (in from center/left-center).
There is at least a 30% chance of rain for Tuesday through Thursday as well. If any games is rained out, your guess is as good as mine as to when they would try to make it up. The two teams are scheduled to meet again in New York for a two-game set on Aug 4-5, but there's a hitch in trying to make them up then. The Aug 5 game is a 12:10 ET start and the Mets have to fly out after that across the Lower 48 to San Diego for a series against the Padres starting on Aug 6. So if they decide to make one up then it would have to be a day-night doubleheader on Aug 4.
The most sensible time to play the make-up would be this Thursday night after the regularly scheduled afternoon game. The Mets stay at home this weekend to meet the Yankees while St. Louis heads home to open their last interleague match against the Twins. If they were to play it after the regular Thursday game, it could throw the pitching matchups off that day so stay tuned.
I still like the Cards for the series, at least the first three games and assuming they all go off as planned. St. Louis comes in playing much better than New York recently and feel they have the edge on offense with the pitching, both the matchups and the bullpens, pretty much a wash. I'll play St. Louis with a series wager and if Wellemeyer can put the Cards ahead on Monday will consider hedging the series bet on Tuesday with a small play on Quarter Pounder (aka, Livan Hernandez).