Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

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Saturday June 30 - adding :: final pick

SAN FRANCISCO +105 first five innings moneyline // 2 units to win 2.10

starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez at Shelby Miller, homeplate ump Chad Whitson.

Arizona ranks dead-last MLB in Batting Average against RHP with a .217 average. Rank 26th in Slugging against RHP.

San Francisco ranks 3rd best in Batting Average against RHP with a .258 average. Rank 12th in Slugging against RHP.

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notes.....Carlos Rodon for the White Sox is such a disappointment. Dude seems to never understand or learn what's going on. Bottom 4th has 2 outs - so he walks consecutive batters with .227 and .236 averages to bring up Robinson Chirinos with the bases loaded who is also sporting a low average but has been on a hot streak.....Rodon gives him a pitch to handle and hits a double to clear the bases and put Texas ahead 4-2 at that point.

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I will tally up the horrendous results from last week, in the meantime picking for tonight....

Monday July 2

OVER 11 -120 SF@COL // 2.40 units to win 2

OVER 4 -125 second-half (innings 6 thru end - includes extra innings) SF@COL // 2.50 units to win 2

This line screams to me go Over tonight in Denver. Starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner at Kyle Freeland. I think a lot of runs should come in the late innings in this game, as the Rockies bullpen has really struggled. Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez were making good contact in recent games, and therefore could be prime candidates to go yard. Giants lineup also has been putting up some runs recently.

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Monday July 2 - adding ::

WHITE SOX +170 first five innings moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.70

This is a value play that will probably lose. Cincinnati has been on fire and the White Sox has been garbage, but that is a crazy line with them as a -200 favorite. Starting pitchers James Shields at Luis Castillo. I'm not gonna go into more depth but at this price it's worth a 1 unit shot. "Buy low" on the Sox.

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Monday July 2 - adding ::

WASHINGTON -180 ML // 1.80 units to win 1

Starting pitchers Rick Porcello at Max Scherzer. Public consensus has brought this number down a bit today, feeling the line is inflated for Scherzer, which it probably is by a little bit. I think after Boston lost huge to the Yankees best pitcher last night, they will do the same tonight in Washington. Nationals offense has been mostly struggling, so rather than the runline, just trying for a 1 unit win on the ML.

[hotcross]

wow, Scherzer all over the place, then they intentionally walk a man to load the bases and bring the pitcher Rick Porcello to bat. Scherzer gets him 0-2 count and makes a mistake with a 96 mph fastball which Porcello roped for a bases clearing double, Boston goes ahead 3-0 score. Still early. Gonna watch the Live lines and possibly hit the Over total and/or Washington live.

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Monday July 2

OVER 8.5 -120 CLE@KC // 4 units to win 3.33

This line screams to me go Over tonight in Kansas City, also looked at some teams trends data for this type of situation. Starting pitchers Corey Kluber at Jakob Junis.

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June 25 thru 30th results:

-------Mon. June 25-----------
-3.30 UNDER 4 -110 ARIZ@MIAMI first five inn. ---> score 5-3 MIAMI lead end 5th (final 9-5 ARIZ road loss at MIAMI)
--------Tue. June 26----------
+2.00 DETROIT -102 first five inn. ML ---> score 7-6 DET lead end 5th
-2.00 DETROIT +114 ML (full game) ---> final 9-7 home loss vs OAK
-6.00 TEXAS -120 ML ---> score 3-2 home loss vs SD
-------Thurs. June 28-----------
-5.00 WASHINGTON +110 ML ---> score 4-3 road loss at PHI
-------Fri. June 29-----------
-5.50 OVER 8.5 -110 ATL@STL ---> score 5-1 STL home loss vs ATL
-------Sat. June 30-----------
-2.30 OVER 9 -115 DET@TOR ---> score 4-3 DET road loss at TOR
-3.00 WHITE SOX +110 first five inn. ML ---> score 5-2 TEX lead end 5th
-3.51 WHITE SOX +114 ML (full game) ---> final 13-4 road loss at TEX
-2.06 UNDER 3.5 -103 PITT@SD first five inn. ---> score 4-0 SD lead end 5th
-2.00 PITTSBURGH +125 ML (full game) ---> final 4-3 road loss at SD
+2.10 SAN FRANCISCO +105 first five inn. ML ---> score 6-0 SF lead end 5th (final 7-0 road win at ARIZ
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June 25 thru 30th = -30.57 units (W/L = 2-10 = .166 pct)

OVERALL THREAD (as of June 30) = -33.33 units (W/L = 88-100-7 = .468 pct)
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just a horrendous week, made worse by firing big units and losing them repeatedly. Didn't feel as though I was chasing, but got caught thinking I was seeing the games clearly and then it was in reality "chasing" as I thought surely would win the next one, then the next one, and it snowballed badly.

Usually I will make the same pick the day after it loses, as I have done earlier in the season, and that usually works. Well I did NOT follow-thru last week, and they woulda won on the second day....another clear sign I got completely out of whack.

The most important thing for me is to make sure I'm winning the high majority of the bigger wagers. If they don't have a higher win percentage, then it will bury me. The large wagers should be only the best picks which then result in a high win-rate....otherwise, I shouldn't make the pick to begin with. Another thought is why make any pick if it doesn't have a high confidence compared to any other pick? In other words why 1-unit picks vs 5 unit picks....shouldn't every pick be the best chance?

Last thing - I tend to run streaky both hot and cold. Last year on MLB results I found myself in this same scenario, down over 30 units. There is time to get some better results, as we are just past the halfway point of the season.

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basically even money results yesterday, winning the larger play

Tuesday July 3

UNDER 8.5 -105 MINN@MILW // 3.15 units to win 3

trend info and starting pitchers Odorizzi at Guerra

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I'm just gonna chip away at this deficit. Nothing else coming for the rest of the night, just not feeling it and tired. Although I did like the Over 7.5 with TB@MIAMI.

The under pick in Milwaukee looking good it's in the bottom 7th with 2-0 score. Forgot to mention that with Cain and Yellich still out of the lineup was another key reason for the pick.

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Wed. July 4

OVER 7.5 -110 STL@ARIZ // 5.50 units to win 5

Unloading on this pick. Starters are Miles Mikolas at Patrick Corbin. The first game of this series saw an Over as St.Louis won 6-3. Last night went under 7.5 with a score of 4-2 win at home by Arizona in a pitching matchup of Jack Flaherty at Zack Greinke. The difference maker was a 3-run homerun hit by Goldschmidt in the bottom of the 5th, then neither team scored after that. The way I see it, both starters from last night rank better than the starters tonight. Mikolas is a groundball pitcher, but behind him in the field the Cardinals have made the most errors in the league. Corbin has not been credited with a win in the games he has started since June 5, and although has done a good job limiting the homeruns he has allowed so far this year, he does tend to give up HR to right-handed bats, which is what the Cardinals have stacked their lineup with tonight. I've also looked at situational trends for Arizona home games. The public consensus is more heavily on the Under for this game, but I disagree and have taken the Over for big.

[rookieclapper]

tailing, lets cash this bad boy

[darrell74]

Diamondbacks on the run line
Corbin can keep the runs low.
Arizona can keep ahead by an at least two run pace, imho

[hotcross]

weird line movement, total 7.5 juice to Under keeps ticking that direction, but the Team Totals are both 3.5 juiced to the Over side

I think game was at O/U 8 most of today, but dropped to 7.5 so I took it then

[darrell74]

Good call on fading the public

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Thursday July 5

LA ANGELS +114 ML // 4 units to win 4.56

Going a little bigger on this pick than I probably should, but need to press the winning momentum (just as I erroneously did press my losing streak). Main thing is the Mariners are the one team the Angels must find a way to beat if they are going to have any hope making postseason....they probably won't anyway....but if they don't beat Seattle every chance they get, then no chance. Angels can win this 3-game series in Seattle with a win tonight.

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give me the Over 9 in this game also

OVER 9 -105 LAA@SEA // 3.15 units to win 3

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Angels have left 5 runners on base after two innings. While it would be nice to score by now, they are definitely working the pitch count of Marco Gonzalez and should get him for at least a couple runs, and the strategy is gonna bring in the Mariners bullpen by the 6th inning if not sooner.

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2 picks for tonight

Friday July 6

MINNESOTA -0.5 +105 first five innings // 4 units to win 4.20

OVER 9.5 +100 LAD@LAA // 4 units to win 4

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split 1-1 last night, working on a break-even week so far

Saturday July 7

PARLAY 2-TEAMS: WASHINGTON -343 & LA DODGERS -150 ML
risk 1 unit to win 1.15

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will tally up last week's records, came up modestly +2.20 units

Monday July 9

SAN FRANCISCO -125 ML // 2.50 units to win 2

Kyle Hendricks starting for the Cubs has not been good in recent outings. Meantime Andrew Suarez has been consistent for the Giants, who are coming off a 13-8 home win outburst on Sunday against the Cardinals. Not only those two momentum trends, I see the Cubs do not have a winning record when they are offered as an underdog in this price range, which isn't often to begin with.

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got a win narrowly with SF last night winning 2-1 score in extra innings via walk-off bottom 11th inning single by Pablo Sandoval

Tuesday July 10

OVER 11 -112 TEX@BOS // 1.12 units to win 1

OVER 9 +102 TOR@ATL // 1 unit to win 1.02

OVER 11 -104 ARIZ@COL // 2.08 units to win 2

this is what I like so far,

tonight's game in Denver is gonna be temperatures in the 90's and therefore a boost to an already great hitting environment. Of course they still have to make contact with the ball! D-backs may have Steven Souza and AJ Pollock both in the lineup, although hasn't been released just yet. I'm predicting a high scoring game in this one. We shall see.

[hotcross]

Tuesday July 10 - adding ::

CLEVELAND -225 ML // 2.25 units to win 1

pitchers Sal Romano at Trevor Bauer. Sure the Reds have been playing well for some time now, winning the first game of this interleague series last night. I don't like Romano against a good lineup. On the home side, Trevor Bauer is very consistent. I don't mind laying the chalk to win one unit on this play. Couldn't completely commit to parlaying it up with anything else.

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well that was pretty rough losing 4.33 units last night with Cleveland's bullpen giving up 7 runs in the top of the 9th inning, which was all the Reds scoring, winning that game 7-4 score. So it wipes out the approx. 4 units of progress I had made going back to last week. One play for tonight....

Wed. July 11

OVER 7 -105 ARIZ@COL first five innings // 2.10 units to win 2

Tonight's starters in Denver would be expected to be much worse that last night, Shelby Miller at German Marquez. First five innings O/U 7 is the line, believe the first time this year it's been offered at 7.....full game O/U at 12.5. I though about picking Colorado in the first five and/or game, but the line feels too low.

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well this Over cashes in the bottom of the 2nd inning, with the Rockies dominating Shelby Miller in the first inning and he didn't come out for the 2nd. Now at 9-1 score Colorado.

In another game, Cleveland musta been pissed about the loss to the Reds last night, as they are up by 17-2 score after 5 innings. Tyler Mahle started the game for the Reds....Indians were on him early also.....this is another occurrence where I need to follow-thru on the pick if it loses the first night. Held off because one of the rare times I paid the juice and they blew the game in monumental fashion last night.

Still need to tally up official records going back to last week, but now down -31 units overall on the season. Two things I have been doing wrong are making too many picks some nights, and making things difficult by not playing the best teams in the league enough. What I mean by that, is everybody knew when the season started that the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees would be very good this year and win 100+ games each...that was a given. Then there are some other contenders, surprises, disappointing teams, etc. But why make this harder than it needs to be. The point of this thread is to track my plays and make an overall net gain. It does not have to be about making great picks that were under the radar. Just win. Heading into the All-Star break after this weekend and I will turn this around.

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also Toronto at Atlanta is going way Over the total tonight which shoulda been another loss follow-thru from last night.

Texas at Boston tonight may stay Under with Chris Sale as the starter, but that Over won last night, so a follow-thru wouldn't have been needed tonight.

It's part of the way I pick where a "due" factor comes into the decision. Not everyone will agree with "due" but I choose those spots selectively. So if it misses the first try, I have to swing at it again the next night.

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Thurs. July 12

LA ANGELS -102 ML // 1.02 units to win 1

starters James Paxton at Tyler Skaggs. Both pitchers are good, but Skaggs might be slightly better. Paxton when you look at his starts, he either does not go deep into games, or when he does go deeper it comes with 3 or so runs given up. Admittedly, Paxton has completely dominated the Angels in previous history, but Skaggs has also been very good facing the Mariners. Another aspect of this pick is when the teams played July 3-5 in Seattle and the Mariners won game 3 to win that series, I had incorrectly chosen the Angels....so here when they are the home team I will follow-thru and risk a unit on them winning game 3 here tonight.

[Bbr]

Tailing angels

[Bbr]

Good call on paxton just hope we don't get penetrated now

[hotcross]

Saturday July 14

OVER 8 -115 LAA@LAD // 4.60 units to win 4

Both teams hit well last night, but went Under the total. Pujols is still out, and so is Justin Turner. But both pitchers faced these teams a week ago. With an Over-oriented umpire behind the plate (David Rackley), I'll hit this Over bigly tonight.

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There's another game going right now, just thought I'd make a comment on. Texas at Baltimore. They had a matchup of questionable-to-terrible pitchers last night Cole Hamels at Alex Cobb, but with the Over set at 9.5 they managed to stay Under with Texas winning 5-4 on the road. I say Hamels questionable because his recent starts were garbage....he did allow 4 runs last night to the Orioles, and before that allowed 3,7,4 runs working back in time, including those 3 runs to Detroit in which he didn't last one full inning. Alex Cobb has been perhaps the worst established starting pitcher in baseball this year, sporting a 2-12 W/L record, 6.41 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP. Yet as I said they stayed Under the total last night on a warm night in Baltimore.

Tonight (Saturday) the Rangers started the lefty Martin Perez on his first game back from the 60-day DL. He had a 2-3 W/L record, 9.67 ERA, and 2.37 WHIP prior to going on the DL. ON TOP OF THAT, Baltimore has great previous history against this man in prior years. But these Orioles are so badly underachieving this year, they only have 2 hits thru 3 innings tonight.

Meantime the Orioles starter is 24-year-old righty Yefry Ramirez who has shown some decent starts but also some in which he was hit pretty good by the opponent....he has 0-3 W/L record so far on the year. Texas also just with 2 hits thru 3 innings.

The Over was elevated to 10.5 for tonight....I am leary about trying to pick Unders when it looks like a no-brainer Over type spot. But these teams, especially the Orioles offense, are just pitiful. Can't imagine what has happened to them this year, not even a threat.

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Won the Over 8 pick with the Dodgers coming thru in the bottom of the 9th beginning with Chase Utley hitting a pinch-hit single, then Yasmani Grandal who had come in a couple innings earlier to pinch-hit in the pitcher's spot smoking a double over the head of Justin Upton....Utley scored all the way from first base, although the play was somewhat close at home he did slide safely, which tied the score 4-4....Dodgers then worked the bases loaded with two outs, and up came Joc Pederson who is adept at drawing walks, striking out, or hitting homeruns....he lofted a long fly-out to the wall in center field and Trout made the grab....so game heads to extra innings tied 4-4, which means the Over 8 will come in.


The other game I commented on but didn't play was won by the home team 1-0 Baltimore taking care of Texas. Again that total was offered at 10 runs and closed at 10.5....didn't come close. Also the Orioles held as -110 favorites all day (line didn't budge)....thinking that was mainly due to Martin Perez started for Texas.


If I play a game Sunday, will tally up my records for the past two weeks after that, and we'll head into the All-Star break. Believe after tonight it leaves me overall down -26.33 units on the season, which isn't good, but trending back in the right direction.

[hotcross]

Sunday July 15

OVER 5 -115 WSH@NYM first five innings // 3.45 units to win 3

starters Jeremy Hellickson at Core Oswalt, homeplate ump Marvin Hudson. The Mets bats have woke up in this series, scoring 7 yesterday, and 4 both of the first two games. Theur lineup looks a little different lately with Todd Frazier going on the 10-day DL a few days ago with strained ribs....Anyway the lineup started to produce more. Meantime Nationals have been in a team-wide slump but face a 24-year-old rookie today who has given up 4 homeruns so far in his 17 total innings pitched. The humidity is high and winds blowing out to center at 10 mph in Queens today.

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forgot to mention, no Bruce Harper in the starting lineup for the Nats...good sit him, dude is off his game completely with a .214 average this year. There is a brief rain delay to start the game.

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July 3 thru 15th results:

--------Tue. July 3----------
+3.00 UNDER 8.5 -105 MINN@MILW ---> score 2-0 MILW home win vs MINN
--------Wed. July 4----------
+5.00 OVER 7.5 -110 STL@ARIZ ---> score 8-4 STL road win at ARIZ
-------Thurs. July 5-----------
-4.00 LA ANGELS +114 ML ---> score 4-1 road loss at SEA
-3.15 OVER 9 -105 LAA@SEA
-------Fri. July 6-----------
+4.20 MINNESOTA -0.5 +105 first five inn. ---> score 6-0 MINN lead end 5th (final 6-2 home win vs BALT)
-4.00 OVER 9.5 +100 LAD@LAA ---> score 3-2 LAD road loss at LAA
-------Sat. July 7-----------
+1.15 PARLAY 2-TEAMS: WASHINGTON -343 & LA DODGERS -150 ML
---> score 18-4 WSH home win vs MIAMI
---> score 3-1 LAD road win at LAA
--------Mon. July 9----------
+2.00 SAN FRANCISCO -125 ML ---> score 2-1 home win vs CHC (11 innings)
-------Tue. July 10-----------
+1.00 OVER 11 -112 TEX@BOS ---> score 5-2 TEX lead end 5th
-1.00 OVER 9 +102 TOR@ATL ---> score 6-2 ATL home loss vs TOR
-2.08 OVER 11 -104 ARIZ@COL ---> score 5-3 COL home loss vs ARIZ
-2.25 CLEVELAND -225 ML ---> score 7-4 home loss vs CIN (epic bullpen meltdown top 9th inning)
--------Wed. July 11----------
+2.00 OVER 7 -105 ARIZ@COL first five inn. ---> score 19-1 COL lead end 5th (final 19-2 COL home win vs ARIZ)
-------Thurs. July 12-----------
+1.00 LA ANGELS -102 ML ---> score 11-2 home win vs SEA
-------Sat. July 14-----------
+4.00 OVER 8 -115 LAA@LAD ---> score 5-4 LAA road win at LAD (10 innings)
-------Sun. July 15-----------
-3.45 OVER 5 -115 WSH@NYM first five inn. ---> score 1-1 end 5th (final 6-1 NYM home loss vs WSH)
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July 3 thru 15th = +3.42 units (W/L = 9-7 = .562 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -29.91 units (W/L = 97-107-7 = .475 pct)
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up to date now

looking to move forward with deliberate intentions, not playing every night unless a pick is warranted