Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

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Tuesday Aug.14

MIAMI +165 first five innings moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.65

OVER 10 +105 ARIZ@TEX // 2 units to win 2.10

couple of "contrarian" picks there to start

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WASHINGTON -106 ML // 2.12 units to win 2

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UNDER 4.5 -110 LAA@SD // 1.10 units to win 1

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a note on this Washington at St.Louis game...homeplate ump Tripp Gibson is really inconsistent with the strikezone. Does it for and against both teams, so not a bias, but I think this troubles Washington as a team the most.

St.Louis is up 3-0 score with a 2-run homerun by the pitcher Gant, against Gio Gonzalez. Looks like this pick is a lost cause.

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ahhh..I forgot to mention my Under 4.5 is for FIRST FIVE INNINGS tonight

should be obvious tho

my apologies

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Wed. Aug.15 early game

PITTSBURGH -105 first five innings moneyline // 5.25 units to win 5
*push if tied end of 5th

think Archer will pitch well against a depleted American League team. Berrios has been lacking command in recent games.

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Record was 0-2-2 last night, but Sunday Night game won 5.04 and today's Early game won 5 units, so record since/including Sunday night is 2-2-2 for +6.72 units...that's more like it for me, need to keep winning the larger plays.

Wed. Aug. 15 west coast game

UNDER 4.5 -130 LAA@SD first five innings // 3 units to win 2.30

I really like this play, and it's a follow-thru from yesterday's loss on the same pick. 6pm local start time in San Diego. The pitchers are nothing special Pena at Erlin, but it's RHP vs LHP and both these teams lineups struggle against the respective handed pitching.

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Friday Aug.17 - 7pm eastern games

CLEVELAND -0.5 -215 first five innings // 4.30 units to win 2

SAN FRANCISCO -101 ML (full game) // 2.02 units to win 2

getting these posted before first pitch.

Baltimore Orioles current hitters in tonight's lineup have never scored a single run off Carrasco. They might tonight, but Cleveland should also be able to hit the Baltimore starter David Hess. Crazy amount of juice, but a no-brainer play (which usually lose for me!).

San Francisco into Cincinnati tonight...as crazy as it sounds the Giants are not out of the NL West division race. They are the better team tonight. No Joey Votto for Cincy.

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still looking at the 3 remaining West coast games, locking one in now:

Friday Aug.17 - adding ::

SAN DIEGO +120 ML (full game) // 2.50 units to win 3

Pitching matchup Robbie Ray at Joey Lucchesi, homeplate ump James Hoye.

Basically my thinking here is San Deigo wins one game somewhere in this 4-game series against Arizona. Tomorrow they face Zack Godley, and Sunday they see Zack Greinke. So I figure tonight is their best chance to win.

I recall when Arizona visited the Padres earlier in the end of July, the lines were the same way, not too huge of a favorite, and Arizona won handily the first two games, while winning game 3 by one run. The previous season meetings in Arizona had the Padres winning one game in each series.

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one point a quick correction, the second series in Arizona this year was a 4-gamer early in July, which San Diego won 2 games in that series.

In other words, so far Arizona leads the overall season matchup W/L 8-3

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went 1-2 last night for a loss of -2.52 units.

Saturday Aug.18

OVER 10.5 -115 LAA@TEX // 2.30 units to win 2

SEATTLE +136 ML // 5 units to win 6.80

Although Seattle was bombed all night last night by Dodgers homeruns, this is game 2 of this interleague series in their home park. I like them to tie it up tonight, at +plus odds. They have the bullpen advantage if the game is close.

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adding ::

SAN DIEGO +153 ML // 1.70 units to win 2.60

The ML is simply a follow-thru from yesterday's loss. The line just increased about 10-minutes before first pitch, I was gonna pass on the game, but I'll go with it at the improved odds. Thought about adding the Under 8 as well, but wouldn't be surprised to see a 5-4 score.

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adding to cancel ::

UNDER 10.5 -110 LAA@TEX // 2.20 units to win 2

This game is still in rain delay. I'm doing something I rarely do, and cancel this pick by playing the other side, eating the juice of whichever total loses. I don't get a good vibe about the Over anymore. Maybe the game will get postponed, not sure yet.

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2-1 last night for a nice +9.20 units. It should have been nicer, but as I said, cancelled the Over in the Texas game and it won easily, but I'm counting that as a loss because I paid 0.2 units of losing juice on the Under to cancel the play.

Sunday Aug.19

PITTSBURGH -130 first five innings moneyline // 2.30 units to win 2
*push if tie score end of 5th inning


will have a couple more plays.....

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SEATTLE +174 ML // 2 units to win 3.48

SEATTLE +1.5:+110 runline // 2 units to win 2.20

there's a back story for this, but I don't have time to post it

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terrible day following a good one again...rookie mistake on the Seattle game that was evident in the top of the first.

Sunday Night game

PHILADELPHIA -200 ML // 5 units to win 2.50

Taking the moneyline. Figure the Phillies will figure out a way to win this game even if it's close, as they don't play tomorrow. Starting pitchers are an apparent mismatch, but this series has been a little wild. The key to it is Phillies can grab first place in the division by a half game with a win tonight.

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Monday Aug.20

UNDER 9-120 BALT@TOR // 1.20 units to win 1

UNDER 9 +105 CHW@MINN // 1 unit to win 1.05

OVER 8 -110 KC@TB // 1.10 units to win 1

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forgot:

OVER 8.5 -115 CLE@BOS // 1.15 units to win 1

Kluber at Porcello

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adding ::

MILWAUKEE -1.5 -125 runline // 1.25 units to win 1

Homer Bailey at Chase Anderson

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SEATTLE +155 ML // 1 unit to win 1.55

ST.LOUIS +180 ML // 1 unit to win 1.80

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went 5-2 last night for +4.25 units. Will tally up the last couple weeks here pretty soon. In the meantime, I'm gonna continue with the volume strategy, and vary the units risked as I go along based on a chase system I've been tweaking.

Tuesday Aug.21

UNDER 7.5 -120 NYY@MIAMI // 1.20 units to win 1

MIAMI +194 ML // 1 unit to win 1.94

UNDER 8.5 -105 CHW@MINN // 2.10 units to win 2

OVER 7 -120 KC@TB // 2.40 units to win 2

TORONTO -133 ML // 1.33 units to win 1

UNDER 8.5 -105 BALT@TOR // 1.05 units to win 1

BOSTON -148 ML // 1.48 units to win 1

UNDER 9 -105 CLE@BOS // 1.05 units to win 1

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adding ::

LA DODGERS -1.5 -105 runline // 1.05 units to win 1

UNDER 8.5 -115 STL@LAD // 1.15 units to win 1

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went 4-5-1 last night for a loss of -1.98 units.

We got some day games, with the first 2 starting in about 30-minutes. So, following my system plays - which is somewhat experimental and I will continue to tweak....but I've been having such a hard time staying consistently on the winning track, I felt trying things differently is the way to proceed.

For the early games, I have the following picks (note - I already missed the first early game of the day, which should have been a follow-thru on the Under 9.5 for BALT@TOR from yesterday's loss....game started to dam early for me to get on it in time today....and halfway thru that game so far they are scoreless):

Wed. Aug.22

UNDER 8.5 -105 CHW@MINN // 1.05 units to win 1

MILWAUKEE -1.5 -140 runline // 1.40 units to win 1


more to come for the later games.....

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Wed. Aug.22 - adding ::

TEXAS +140 ML // 1 unit to win 1.40

TEXAS +1.5 -150 runline // 1.50 units to win 1

OVER 8 -110 HOU@SEA // 2.20 units to win 2

SEATTLE +137 ML // 1.50 units to win 2.05

Note about the Texas picks....I don't like to play the +1.5 dog runline, but the numbers and anticipated trend reversal for this game really call for a 1-run game. I think Texas should win outright, but with Oakland being so hot, they might win it in a close game.


more to come for the later games.....

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early games already got a profit locked in with Texas just finishing the win 4-2 score (barely held-on), and Seattle pending but the Over was easy on that game already. Here we go with tonight's volume system picks:

Wed.Aug.22 - 7pm eastern starts ::

PITTSBURGH -101 ML // 2.02 units to win 2

TEAM TOTAL PITT OVER 4 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

BOSTON -101 ML // 2.02 units to win 2

SAN FRANCISCO +140 ML // 2.86 units to win 4

OVER 7.5 +102 SF@NYM // 2 units to win 2.04

MIAMI +155 ML // 1 unit to win 1.55

now I'm kinda anxious about playing this much volume after having a profit for the day already achieved with the early games, but I'm gonna go with it because the idea of the volume is long-term results, and to try to gain some profit back thru the end of the year (including playoffs) from this season's losses.

NOTE: I'm leaving off the follow-thru on the Over 7 with TB@KC. I just can't pull the trigger on it, will just wait until these teams move on to their next series' opponents, and play Overs then.


might have something for the 3 late West coast games....

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went 7-5 yesterday for +1.46 profit

Thursday Aug.23

KANSAS CITY +159 ML // 3 units to win 4.77

Duffy back of the DL facing Glasnow. This is the 4th game of the series and Tampa won the first 3 games. KC has not been swept in a 4-game series all season, so I see that as motivation for them tonight.

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Thursday Aug.23 - adding ::

UNDER 9.5 -125 OAK@MINN // 5 units to win 4

MINNESOTA +162 ML // 2 units to win 3.24

OVER 9 -105 CIN@CHC // 2.10 units to win 2

Minnesota is a good home team. They have a rookie unproven pitcher on the mound starting, and probably won't go deep into the game. However, Oakland has a trend of repeating a game result when traveling without a day rest between games.

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edit before start of the Minnesota game was to add units to the Under pick

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this is the record update PRIOR to Monday of this week Aug.20 (when I began doing volume system picks)

Aug 12 thru 19^th results:

--------Sun. Aug.12----------
+5.04 CHICAGO CUBS +126 ML// 4 units to win 5.04 ---> score 4-3 home win vs WSH (David Bote walk-off grand-slam)
--------Tue. Aug.14----------
+0 push MIAMI +165 first five inn. ML ---> score 5-5 tie end 5th (final 10-6 road loss at ATL)
+0 push OVER 10 +105 ARIZ@TEX ---> score 6-4 ARIZ road win at TEX
-2.12 WASHINGTON -106 ML ---> score 6-4 road loss at STL
-1.10 UNDER 4.5 -110 LAA@SD first five inn. ---> score 5-1 LAA lead end 5th (final 7-3 SD home loss vs LAA)
--------Wed. Aug.15----------
+5.00 PITTSBURGH -105 first five inn. ML ---> score 4-2 PITT lead end 5^th (final 6-4 PITT road loss at MINN)
+2.30 UNDER 4.5 -130 LAA@SD first five inn. ---> score 1-1 tie end 5th (final 3-2 SD home loss vs LAA)
--------Fri. Aug 17----------
+2.00 CLEVELAND -0.5 -215 first five inn. ---> score 2-0 CLE lead end 5th (final 2-1 home win vs BALT)
-2.02 SAN FRANCISCO -101 ML ---> score 2-1 road loss at CIN (extra innings 11^th)
-2.50 SAN DIEGO +120 ML ---> score 9-4 home loss vs ARIZ
----------Sat. Aug 18-----------
xCANCEL = OVER 10.5 -115 LAA@TEX // 2.30 units to win 2 ---> score 11-7 LAA road win at TEX
-0.20 UNDER 10.5 -110 LAA@TEX // 2.20 units to win 2 ---> close-out of the Over pick
+6.80 SEATTLE +136 ML ---> score 5-4 home win vs LAD (extra innings 10^th)
+2.60 SAN DIEGO +153 ML ---> score 7-6 home win vs ARIZ
----------Sun. Aug 19-----------
-2.60 PITTSBURGH -130 first five inn. ML ---> score 1-0 CHC lead end 5th (final 2-1 PITT home win vs CHC, extra innings 11^th)
-2.00 SEATTLE +174 ML ---> score 12-1 home loss vs LAD
-2.00 SEATTLE +1.5 +110 runline
-5.00 PHILADELPHIA -200 ML ---> score 8-2 home loss vs NYM (off-site at Williamsport)
------------------------------------
Aug 12 thru 19th = +4.20 units (W/L = 6-9-2 = .400 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -37.24 units (W/L = 117-130-12 = .473 pct)
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say it again, this is the record update PRIOR to Monday of this week Aug.20 (when I began doing volume system picks)...so with the rest of the tracking I can see how the system picks perform.

Looking back at last week, I was rolling pretty good, hitting most of the bigger wagers, but then a terrible 0-4 Sunday saw -11.60 units go down the drain. That pattern has been repeated at least 3 times this season where I might lose focus or trying too hard pressing to carry momentum. So that's why I decided to move forward with more of a systematic strategy. It still requires analysis and estimates for future games, but the purpose is to reign-in the emotions and make the process for choosing final picks more mechanical. Also it should "grind" towards profits over the long-term, rather than concern with daily results.

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went 1-3 W/L yesterday on a couple bad beats....

Friday Aug.24

OVER 7.5 -110 ATL@MIAMI // 2.20 units to win 2

UNDER 9 -105 PHI@TOR // 3.15 units to win 2

PHILADELPHIA -130 ML // 1.30 units to win 1


more to come....

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Friday Aug.24 - adding ::

PITTSBURGH +118 ML // 4 units to win 4.72

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typo mistake that Under 9 in Toronto is 3.15 units to win 3

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Friday Aug.24 - adding LIVE::

PITTSBURGH +593 ML // 1 unit to win 5.93

score 4-0 Milwaukee leads end 1st

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Will update last week's record here shortly. Took the past weekend off.

Unloading on this pick tonight -

Monday Aug.27

OVER 10.5 -110 NYM@CHC // 5.50 units to win 5

Syndergaard at John Lester. Warm, humid, winds blowing out tonight in Chicago.

I also have the Cubs in particular due for some Overs.

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Monday Aug.27 - adding ::

UNDER 8 -105 COL@LAA // 1.05 units to win 1

John Gray at Odrisamer Despaigne, homplate ump Dan Bellino