Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

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hit the biggin' last night, but way wrong read on the 1 unit Under pick - the Rockies bullpen was atrocious.

Here are volume system picks for the 7pm eastern time starts:

Tuesday Aug.28

OVER 10 -110 CHW@NYY // 1.10 units to win 1

UNDER 9.5 -115 TOR@BALT // 1.15 units to win 1

UNDER 10.5 -110 MIAMI@BOS // 1.10 units to win 1

PHILADELPHIA +105 ML // 1 unit to win 1.05

CINCINNATI +118 ML // 2 units to win 2.36


I don't really love that Under in Boston, since it will be excellent hitting weather, and the Red Sox are an Overs type team, of course.

Heck, these are all kinda iffy picks, with Cincinnati being the strongest of this bunch.

more to come for the later games....

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Tuesday Aug.28 - adding ::

TAMPA BAY +116 ML // 3 units to win 3.48

OVER 8.5 -105 TB@ATL // 3.15 units to win 3


hopefully I have at least half a read on this game for break-even at worst.

more to come...

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Tuesday Aug.28 - adding 8pm eastern starts ::

TEXAS +203 ML // 1 unit to win 2.03

TEXAS +1.5 +129 runline // 1 unit to win 1.29

OVER 8 -105 DET@KC // 3.15 units to win 3

KANSAS CITY -112 ML // 2.24 units to win 2

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yesterday went 3-7-1 W/L/D but for only -2 units. Felt like it just missed having a big winning night. The 3 one-unit totals all lost, but the 3-unit Over play in Atlanta won, and the KC pushed Over 8. Now for today I've already missed follow-thru on some of the early start time games.

Here are volume system picks for the 7pm eastern time starts:

Wed. Aug.29

OVER 9.5 +100 CHW@NYY // 2 units to win 2

UNDER 9 -105 TOR@BALT // 1.05 units to win 1

OVER 8 -110 TB@ATL // 2.20 units to win 2

TAMPA BAY +125 ML // 2 units to win 2.50

MINNESOTA +165 ML // 1 unit to win 1.65

MINNESOTA +155 first five innings moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.55
*push if tied end 5th

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Wed. Aug.29 - adding 8pm eastern start ::

TEXAS +148 ML // 1 unit to win 1.48

TEXAS +1.5 -103 runline // 1.03 units to win 1

Alex Wood LHP (Dodgers) at Mike Minor LHP (Texas)

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Wed. Aug.29 - adding Late game ::

SAN FRANCISCO +114 ML // 2 units to win 2.28

SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +235 alternate runline // 2 units to win 4.70

Zack Godley RHP (D-Backs) at Dereck Rodriguez RHP (Giants), homeplate ump Cory Blaser

Dereck Rodriguez (Pudge's son) starts at home tonight for San Francisco, looking for a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rodriguez got a no-decision in his last start vs. Texas, but has continued to pitch very good all year, sporting a 6-1 W/L record, 2.30 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP on the season. His lone loss was back on June 9 in a road game at Washington.

D-Backs were shutout both of the first 2 games of this series. SF is missing Buster Posey who I believe won't play again this season, as a pending surgery has been announced for him. Filling-in as the catcher for SF is Nick Hundley, who will be batting in the cleanup spot tonight, after going 2-for-4 last night, and he has gone 3-for-5 lifetime against Arizona starter Zack Godley.

The way I see this game, D-Backs will either narrowly avoid being swept in this 3-game series, or continue to struggle and lose their 5th game tonight out of the past 6 games. D-Backs won Sunday's home game against Seattle to avoid being swept by them, but they haven't been clicking on offense. Tonight they get David Peralta back off the DL, and he is a good hitter, but we know that players generally need a couple games to get back into form. Tonight's starter for the Giants might not be the best spot for Arizona to turn things around. Plus, the D-Backs bullpen is struggling mightily, and starting pitcher Zack Godley has not been good in in recent starts. With San Francisco winning the first 2-games of this series by shutting out Arizona BOTH nights, the Giants haven't even yet touched-up the Arizona bullpen, so I see that as a safety-valve for them to comeback / or add-on tonight late in the game.

[hotcross]

I forgot to make note of a couple more points of logic behind this pick for the Late game. For tracking purposes:

Arizona has been shutout 6 times this year (not counting last night). They lost 5 out of the 6 games following being shutout.

Really the only reason that makes me hesitate to go against D-Backs this game to avoid being swept in this series. They have only been swept in 4 series this year, but one of those was against the Giants, June 29 - July 1 at home in Arizona.

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RESULT: SF loses 3-1 score in a game where they couldn't do anything off Zack Godley, but did have the bullpen opportunity in the bottom of the 8th, but that rally began after two outs were already made to start the inning, so they only scored 1.

Steven Souza was the difference-maker position player for Arizona. Hit an early solo homerun, then later a double for RBI, and made 2-3 outstanding diving catches in the field to rob Giants hitters.

Like so many of my losing picks, feels stupid like I was on the wrong side, but had the reasons, took the +plus odds side, and the game played pretty close. Really shouldn't be looking for close games to sweat tho, that's still my main problem. I should only be looking to identify and play the lop-sided games. In fairness, I did have the alternate runline Giants and thought they had a good chance to win by 2 or more....game just didn't play that way.

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Aug 20 thru 29^th results:

--------Mon. Aug.20----------
+1.00 UNDER 9 -120 BALT@TOR ---> score 5-3 TOR home win vs BALT
-1.00 UNDER 9 +105 CHW@MINN ---> score 8-5 MINN home loss vs CHW
-1.10 OVER 8 -110 KC@TB ---> score 1-0 KC road loss at TB
+1.00 OVER 8.5 -115 CLE@BOS ---> score 5-4 CLE road win at BOS
+1.00 MILWAUKEE -1.5 -125 runline ---> score 5-2 home win vs CIN
+1.55 SEATTLE +155 ML ---> score 7-4 home win vs HOU
+1.80 ST.LOUIS +180 ML ---> score 5-3 road win at LAD
--------Tue. Aug.21----------
+1.00 UNDER 7.5 -120 NYY@MIAMI ---> score 2-1 road win at MIAMI (extra innings 12^th)
-1.00 MIAMI +194 ML
+2.00 UNDER 8.5 -105 CHW@MINN ---> score 5-2 road win at CHW
-2.40 OVER 7 -120 KC@TB ---> score 4-1 KC road loss at TB
+1.00 TORONTO -133 ML ---> score 8-2 home win vs BALT
-1.05 UNDER 8.5 -105 BALT@TOR
-1.48 BOSTON -148 ML ---> score 6-3 home loss vs CLE
+0 push UNDER 9 -105 CLE@BOS
-1.05 LA DODGERS -1.5 -105 runline ---> score 5-2 home loss vs STL
+1.00 UNDER 8.5 -115 STL@LAD
--------Wed. Aug.22----------
-1.05 UNDER 8.5 -105 CHW@MINN ---> score 7-3 MINN road loss at CHW
+1.00 MILWAUKEE -1.5 -140 runline ---> score 4-0 home win vs CIN
+1.40 TEXAS +140 ML ---> score 4-2 road win at OAK
+1.00 TEXAS +1.5 -150 runline
+2.00 OVER 8 -110 HOU@SEA ---> score 10-7 HOU road win at SEA
-1.50 SEATTLE +137 ML
-2.02 PITTSBURGH -101 ML ---> score 2-1 home loss vs ATL
-2.10 TEAM TOTAL PITT OVER 4 -105
+2.00 BOSTON -101 ML ---> score 10-4 home win vs CLE
-2.86 SAN FRANCISCO +140 ML ---> score 5-3 road loss at NYM
+2.04 OVER 7.5 +102 SF@NYM
+1.55 MIAMI +155 ML ---> score 9-3 home win vs NYY
--------Thurs. Aug.23----------
-3.00 KANSAS CITY +159 ML ---> score 4-3 road loss at TB
-5.00 UNDER 9.5 -125 OAK@MINN ---> score 6-4 OAK road loss at MINN
+3.24 MINNESOTA +162 ML ---> score 6-4 home win vs OAK
-2.10 OVER 9 -105 CIN@CHC ---> score 7-1 CIN road loss at CHC
--------Fri. Aug.24----------
-2.20 OVER 7.5 -110 ATL@MIAMI ---> score 1-0 ATL road loss at MIAMI
+3.00 UNDER 9 -105 PHI@TOR ---> score 4-2 TOR home win vs PHI
-1.30 PHILADELPHIA -130 ML
-4.00 PITTSBURGH +118 ML ---> score 7-6 road loss at MILW (extra innings 15^th)
-1.00 PITTSBURGH +593 ML-LIVE when score 4-0 Milwaukee lead end 1^st inning


--------Mon. Aug 27----------
+5.00 OVER 10.5 -110 NYM@CHC ---> score 7-4 CHC home win vs NYM
-1.05 UNDER 8 -105 COL@LAA ---> score 10-7 COL road loss at LAA
--------Tue. Aug.28----------
-1.10 OVER 10 -110 CHW@NYY ---> score 5-4 CHW road loss at NYY
-1.15 UNDER 9.5 -115 TOR@BALT ---> score 12-5 TOR road loss at BALT
-1.10 UNDER 10.5 -110 MIAMI@BOS ---> score 8-7 MIAMI road loss at BOS
-1.00 PHILADELPHIA +105 ML ---> score 5-4 home loss vs WSH (blown save)
+2.36 CINCINNATI +118 ML ---> score 9-7 home win vs MILW
-3.00 TAMPA BAY +116 ML ---> score 9-5 road loss at ATL
+3.00 OVER 8.5 -105 TB@ATL
-1.00 TEXAS +203 ML ---> score 8-4 home loss vs LAD
-1.00 TEXAS +1.5 +129 runline
+0 push OVER 8 -105 DET@KC ---> score 6-2 KC home win vs DET
+2.00 KANSAS CITY -112 ML ---> score 6-2 home win vs DET
--------Wed. Aug.29----------
-2.00 OVER 9.5 +100 CHW@NYY ---> score 4-1 NYY home loss vs CHW
-1.05 UNDER 9 -105 TOR@BALT ---> score 10-5 TOR road loss at BALT
+2.00 OVER 8 -110 TB@ATL ---> score 8-5 TB road win at ATL
+2.50 TAMPA BAY +125 ML
+1.65 MINNESOTA +165 ML ---> score 4-3 road win at CLE
-1.00 MINNESOTA +155 first five inn. ML ---> score 3-2 CLE lead end 5th
-1.00 TEXAS +1.48 ML ---> score 3-1 home loss vs LAD
-1.03 TEXAS +1.5 -1.03 runline
-2.00 SAN FRANCISCO +114 ML ---> score 3-1 home loss vs ARIZ
-2.00 SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +235 alternate runline
------------------------------------
VOLUME SYSTEM
Aug 20 thru Aug 29th = -10.60 units (W/L = 25-33-2 = .431 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -47.84 units (W/L = 142-163-14 = .465 pct)
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up to date now

lots of red at the bottom for the past couple days, I'd expect that to reverse soon, at least in the near-future by following-thru on those losing picks.

[hotcross]

Thursday Aug.30

UNDER 8.5 -105 BOS@CHW // 4.20 units to win 4

ATLANTA -132 ML // 5.28 units to win 4

[hotcross]

nice 0-for last night

Friday Aug.31

UNDER 8.5 -105 BOS@CHW // 5.25 units to win 5

this dam play has cost me so much the last few nights, gotta follow-thru with it again

[hotcross]

also got:

UNDER 9 -110 BALT@KC // 4.40 units to win 4

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split 1-1 Friday for a very small profit. Tonight's picks still from my volume chase system.

By the way for anyone wondering, these are my real wagers and yes obviously getting my azz handed to me this year. Last year as documented on the site I went even in MLB and then NFL, followed by nearly +70 units in NHL. So I have not yet busted thru the amount of profits from hockey, but its getting close. I still have a foundation bankroll beyond that, but it's uncomfortable to be down 50 units, although I'd keep going until down 100 units for any given sport season.

I have always varied the amounts risked, so I'm probably difficult to follow for those of you who flat-bet. I know some look at my picks thread and hopefully you are timing right when to fade me. All I can say is after most days I look at the results and see where the mistakes were, see where the close picks were, and see the locks more clearly after the fact, if there were any! ...just can't seem to fix the mistakes as they days roll along. But I'm still swinging and will...thru the playoffs. Honest record-keeping is a big part of what will help me to improve as a handicapper over time.

Saturday Sept.1

UNDER 7.5 +107 TOR@MIAMI // 3 units to win 3.21

OVER 8.5 -120 BOS@CHW // 5 units to win 4

TEXAS +100 ML // 3 units to win 3

TEXAS +1.5 -160 runline // 3.20 units to win 2


more to come....

[hotcross]

excuse me that Over 8.5 -120 BOS@CHW should read 4.80 units to win 4

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Saturday Sept.1 - adding ::

ARIZONA +148 ML // 1 unit to win 1.48

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Sunday Night game

UNDER 7.5 -115 LAA@HOU // 4.60 units to win 4

first pitch coming in 3,2,1......

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Aug 30 thru Sept 2 results:

--------Thurs. Aug.30--------
-4.20 UNDER 8.5 -105 BOS@CHW ---> score 9-4 CHW home loss vs BOS
-5.28 ATLANTA -132 ML ---> score 5-4 home loss vs CHC
--------Fri. Aug.31----------
+5.00 UNDER 8.5 -105 BOS@CHW ---> score 6-1 CHW home win vs BOS
-4.40 UNDER 9 -110 BALT@KC ---> score 9-2 BALT road loss at KC
--------Sat. Sept.1----------
-3.00 UNDER 7.5 +107 TOR@MIAMI ---> score 6-3 TOR road loss at MIAMI
-4.80 OVER 8.5 -120 BOS@CHW ---> score 6-1 CHW home loss vs BOS
+3.00 TEXAS +100 ML ---> score 7-4 home win vs MINN
+2.00 TEXAS +1.5 -160 runline
-1.00 ARIZONA +148 ML ---> score 3-2 road loss at LAD (blown save – Matt Kemp 3-run homerun)
--------Sun. Sept.2----------
+4.00 UNDER 7.5 -115 LAA@HOU ---> score 4-2 HOU home win vs LAA
------------------------------------
Aug 30 thru Sept 2 = -8.68 units (W/L = 4-6 = .400 pct)

VOLUME SYSTEM = -19.28 units (W/L = 29-39-2 = .426 pct)
(began Aug 20)

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OVERALL THREAD = -56.52 units (W/L = 146-169-14 = .463 pct)
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besides not having success with the "new" systematic picks, I've also missed some follow-thru which should have been wagered on following a loss pick....either because I missed the gametime completely (too busy with life) or because decided didn't like the chase with the specific pick...but woulda won the second day follow-thru, and sometimes the third day also.

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Monday Sept.3

PITTSBURGH -135 ML // 5.40 units to win 4

NY YANKEES +115 ML // 2 units to win 2.30

NY YANKEES +110 first five innings moneyline // 2 units to win 2.20
*push if tied end of 5th

NY METS +122 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.05

ARIZONA -1.5 -125 runline // 2.50 units to win 2

could be another couple plays later....

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adding ::

OVER 10 -110 SF@COL // 2.20 units to win 2

UNDER 8 -110 NYY@OAK // 4.40 units to win 4

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adding ::

UNDER 8.5 +105 BALT@SEA // 2 units to win 2.10

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went 4-4 yesterday for a tiny +0.25 units. That NYY@OAK game I had a bad read all the way around 0-3 and it cost -8.40 units.

Tuesday Sep.4

UNDER 8.5 -105 TB@TOR // 2.10 units to win 2

TORONTO +112 ML // 1 unit to win 1.12

UNDER 8.5 -120 CIN@PITT // 4.80 units to win 4

UNDER 8.5 -105 KC@CLE // 4.20 units to win 4


more to come....

[hotcross]

Danny Duffy for KC gives up 3 runs, hardly can find the plate, and leaves the game with just 2 outs recorded, after the trainer came out to look at him.

Tuesday Sep.4 - adding ::

OVER 9 -115 CHC@MILW // 5.75 units to win 5

LA ANGELS -107 ML // 3.21 units to win 3


still looking at the late games....

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adding ::

UNDER 4 -120 MINN@HOU first five innings // 3.60 units to win 3

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adding ::

OVER 10 -105 SF@COL // 3.15 units to win 3

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UNDER 4 -120 MINN@HOU first five innings // 3.60 units to win 3

got fooled thinking Trevor May starting for Minnesota would be good for a couple innings then Twins would go to bullpen game. Well they had to go bullpen to start the 2nd inning, because May gave up 4 runs on 2 homeruns in the bottom of the first.

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 8 -105 NYY@OAK // 3.15 units to win 3

SEATTLE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4.5 -120 // 3.60 units to win 3



this is shaping up to be a really bad night

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went 4-6 yesterday for -6.96 units. Thankfully both the West coast picks won to save a complete disaster.

Sick part (not the good type of "sick") is last 2 days I won my best 5 unit pick, but managed to lose a bunch of the other stuff.

Just completely out of whack at this point.

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Wednesday Sep.5

WASHINGTON -105 ML // 4.20 units to win 4

Miles Mikolas at Tanner Roark....firstly, I think those 2 back-to-back extra innings games are gonna catch-up to the Cardinals. After tonight's game, they have Thursday off before travel over to Detroit for a 3-game interleague weekend series which they will be expecting to dominate. Also, Roark gives up runs but he should go deeper into this game than Mikolas, which will bring the Cardinals bullpen into the mix again. I realize the game could probably go either way, but with the consensus showing heavy on the Cardinals after yesterday's 11-8 win, Washington is still offered as a thin favorite for this game....so I feel Washington can win a tight one here. Let's also keep in mind everyone's already writing-off the Nationals for the season, and they probably cannot get a Wildcard, but they are 7-games out of the division race, which is not completely impossible at this point, although logic says they won't make it and the team itself basically admitted it by trading off the players recently, but they still have something to play for at this point. Overall record is 69-70 going into tonight with a home record of 35-34, away record of 34-36.


I'm checking other games still, but gotta tighten up at this point and try to recover whatever I possibly can.

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 3.5 -110 NYM@LAD first five innings // 3.30 units to win 3

[hotcross]

0-2 again last night. Washington just gave up too many runs early to complete the comeback, losing 7-6.

This might end my season tonight if I get this one wrong, but I feel really strong that Arizona wins.

Thursday Sep.6

ARIZONA -163 ML // 3.26 units to win 2

ARIZONA +125 runline // 4 units to win 5

Anibal Sanchez at Zack Greinke

[hotcross]

another 7-6 loss for me on the wrong side consecutive nights. Goldschimdt forced extra innings with his solo-shot in the bottom of the 9th but then the Arizona bullpen gave it up on a wild pitch with a man on 3rd base.

Friday Sep.7

SERIES WIN COLORADO +145 // 2 units to win 2.90

This series price is offered at better higher odds than what the Rockies are listed at for tonight's game +132 against Kershaw at home. Kershaw has not pitched in Denver yet this season, and his ERA in Denver specifically is 4.85 during the past 3-years, with 2-1 W/L for him. John Gray starting for Denver has not been magnificent at home this year either, and anything can happen in tonight's game. But the Rockies will be looking to defend their current 1.5 game division lead at home in this weekend series. Kenley Jansen the Dodgers closer did not make the trip due to concerns about his heart's potential adversity to the high altitude.

I'm sucking so bad and in a major cold-streak currently. Although this is not a rock-solid lock with Colorado (excuse the pun), I'll take it at +plus odds.

[hotcross]

adding ::

CHW WHITE SOX -105 first five innings moneyline // 2.10 units to win 2
*push if tied after 5th

Felix Pena at Carlos Rodon. Here we have Trout back in the lineup, along with Ohtani and Upton for the Angels. While the Sox have Avasail Garcia in at DH, but no Jose Abreu. The line movement from what I've seen has dropped from White Sox as a huge favorite, to now Angels as a thin road favorite... think something stinks with that. Gimme the better pitcher to start the game.

[hotcross]

adding ::

COLORADO +137 ML // 2 units to win 2.74

Clayton Kershaw at John Gray. Already posted my series pick for Colorado this weekend. Saw this line rise slightly to +137 for tonight's game (up from +132) so I'm jumping on it, going with my read.

[hotcross]

cannot win anything now. 0-2 last night with the pending Series Colorado still open.

Tonight is a guaranteed winner as far as I'm concerned. Seriously if this loses, I'm done with MLB for 2018 (as I should have been before today anyway):

Saturday Sept.8

UNDER 5 -115 LAA@CHW first five innings // 5 units to win 4.34

Matt Shoemaker at James Shields. Both pitched well in their last outings. Shields being a flyballer will be safe in this start with a 20 mph sustained wind blowing in from the outfield. Meantime the White Sox lineup is still lacking Jose Abreu.

[hotcross]

Mike Trout. 2-run jack top first. 3-run blast top third.

2 at bats by Trout = 2 homeruns, 5 RBI

bye bye baseball

although a truly stupid wager by me