Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

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Monday June 18

KANSAS CITY +123 ML // 1.71 units to win 2.10

starting pitchers Bartolo Colon at Ian Kennedy. I really like the Royals in this spot, although it's risky. Royals got their azz kicked by the Astros all weekend. Kennedy has great previous history against the Texas batters....however what makes this risky is the excellent hitting weather in Kansas City again today. But the Royals are starting some call-up players tonight and I think will be motivated after getting throttled for the past several games.


In other games, looks like a bunch of Overs if you look at weather conditions, but not so much if you look at starting pitchers. Trying to decide if any other games worth going for.

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adding ::

COLORADO +110 ML // 3 units to win 3.30

Line is really fishy, DeGrom starting. Also the Mets bats look weak to me. After winning the past 2 games, why are the Mets such thin favorites against the Rockies who have done nothing but blown games?

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Lost both games yesterday and was not even close. I'd rather lose that way than a close heartbreaker (if I lose), but that was a case of looking to outsmart the odds, which didn't make sense in the Colorado game especially with DeGrom starting for the Mets, who cruised to a 12-2 win while the Rockies bullpen continued to be awful.

The Royals pick I'll still defend somewhat because they had a ton of hard-hit balls against Colon, but so many of them were caught in centerfield by Delino DeShields. Bottom line though is the ROyals are really bad, and I'm already convinced they are looking to "tank" this year and try to get a high draft pick.

Tuesday June 19

UNDER 9 +105 BALT@WSH // 2 units to win 2.10


OVER 5 -111 DET@CIN first five innings // 2.22 units to win 2

OVER 9 -110 DET@CIN // 2.20 units to win 2

CINCINNATI -0.5 +105 first five innings // 2 units to win 2.10

CINCINNATI -126 ML // 5.05 units to win 4


Obviously I'm loading up on the game in Cincinnati. I'm seeing the public consensus leaning more on Detroit as the visitors in this game, and I disagree with that assessment. It appears to be a game where a lot of runs should be scored, weather permitting as it's hot and humid with a light breeze blowing out for tonight's game. There is also a chance of a rain delay. Matt Boyd the lefty starting ofr Detroit has not been as effective in his road starts. Couple that with it being an interleague game in the Reds home park, and I think it gives distinct advantages to the Reds.

Detroit has won an impressive 5 games in a row, coming off a road sweep of the hapless White Sox. Tigers have not played an interleague series since early in the season - 2 series in fact against the Pirates, but they did not fare well in those games, losing 5 out of 6, and the total went Over in 4 out of 6 of those games.

Cincinnati meantime has won 4 out of 5 interleague games on this season, although only 2 of the 5 went Over.

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In the game in Washington DC, normally I'd be playing the Over in these types of weather conditions, which will be humid tonight although not super hot. However, looking at previous histories of these two specific teams going head-to-head, an unusual trend shows up.....which is that when their better starting pitchers matchup = the total tends to go Over (instead of Under which might be expected). And when the lower-tier starters go to battle, these teams tend to play an Under (again a reversal of expectations). Couple this historical performance with the fact that both teams have been dismal offensively on the season in general, and I'll take a stab at the Under at +plus odds.

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June 18 & 19 results:

-------Mon. June 18-----------
-1.71 KANSAS CITY +123 ML ---> score 6-3 home loss vs TEX
-3.00 COLORADO +110 ML ---> score 12-2 home loss vs NYM
-------Tue June 19-----------
-2.00 UNDER 9 +105 BALT@WSH ---> score 9-7 BALT road loss at WSH
+0 push OVER 5 -111 DET@CIN first five inn. ---> score 5-0 CIN lead end 5th
+2.00 OVER 9 -110 DET@CIN ---> score 9-5 CIN home win vs DET
+2.10 CINCINNATI -0.5 +105 first five inn.
+4.00 CINCINNATI -126 ML full game
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June 18 & 19 = +1.39 units (W/L = 3-3-1 = .500 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -7.89 units (W/L = 78-85-4 = .478 pct)
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Wanted to update the record while I had time tonight. Reviewing the picks.

Nailed the Cincinnati game tonight, feels good. Had luck on my side in that one, as Detroit's starter walked the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom 3rd, which allowed Joey Votto to hit a Grand Slam to open the scoring 4-0 Cincy....two unusual things happened during that sequence....with the count 1-1 ball/strike to Votto, a bird settled on the grass between the pitching mound and homeplate....Votto walked out slowly and motioned at the bird with his bat (didn't get right close to it, but enough to shoo it away).....on the second pitch after that he hit a bad curveball out to the wall in right-centerfield and Nick Castellanos had a play at the wall, but when he jumped up, the ball grazed off his glove and continued over the wall for the Grand Slam (ball still would have gone out without being touched).

Then in the top of the 9th with the Reds leading 9-0, they used pitcher Wandy Peralta to eat up some outs, but he's really bad....gave up 3 consecutive singles to start the inning, then walked in the Tigers first run in the game to make the score 9-1 (Over comes in), and gave up a double next which brought in 2 more runs, then was pulled from the game without ever recording an out!

I'll take the luck anytime. However, Sal Romano the Reds starter did pitch a great game for the most part, striking out 6, allowing just 4 hits and no runs, while walking 4, during 7 full innings of work. Romano is a rookie and only 24 years old....his stats are not beautiful, but this is the second game in a row he pitched well....previous start was in Kansas City and he went 8 innings, giving up just 4 hits, 1 run on a solo homerun, and 1 walk, with just 2 strikeouts. Dude is a big boy physically, listed at 6'5" and 270 pounds. I'd be careful with him against the better hitting teams, though.

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Colorado won tonight 10-8 although their bullpen almost tried to blow another one, the Rockies scored enough early in the game to make it hold up. So I was a day early on that pick. But didn't want to follow-thru on them because of how terrible they have played, losing 9 out of the past 12 games.

Royals lost again, and that enforces the point about not chasing bad teams to break a losing streak. It would be better to fade a team like the Royals, which at this point feels like I missed that opportunity....they have lost 8 in a row and 14 out of 15 games!

Also I told myself to be better this year about playing the win streaking teams. While that looks easy to say in hindsight, teams like the Astros for example, can be played pretty much every night without any real capping involved. Sure they will lose every so often, but the league does not have much parity on some of the top teams. So I will try to move ahead with unit management on the top teams.

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Monday June 20

OVER 9.5 +100 TEX@KC // 2 units to win 2

starting pitchers Austin Bibens-Dirkx at Jacob Junis. This is the final game of the series, and these teams have played 6 games already on the year, with just 1 going Over the total. The weather conditions are not as favorable tonight, but still decent.

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TAMPA BAY +0.5 +135 first five innings // 1 unit to win 1.35

TAMPA BAY +225 first five innings moneyline // 1 unit to win 2.25
*ML pushes if tied at end of 5 innings

starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi at Charlie Morton. Eovaldi has good previous history against many of the Astros batters. I see the first five innings in this game being more of a coin flip, so the odds are super inflated towards Houston with Morton making the start, but he has been consistently giving up a couple runs. Tampa lead on Monday after five innings, and yesterday were tied at the end of five (went on to win the full game outright by one run). A value play here.

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sorry today is Wednesday June 20 (not Monday)

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went 1-1-1 yesterday but lost the 2 unit wager, for a net loss of -0.65 units

Thursday June 21

OVER 7 +105 BALT@WSH // 1.40 units to win 1.47

starting pitchers Kevin Gausman at Max Scherzer. Once again a contrarian pick, but the weather conditions are favorable and Mr. Scherzer has given up 2 runs in each of his last 3 starts, preceded by 0 runs, 4 runs, and 2 runs working backwards. Tonight's homeplate umpire is factoring into the pick, as Chris Segal does have a tick higher strikeout rate than average, but for some reason the starting pitchers generally give up more runs when he is behind the plate. The 7 total is achievable. Making this a 1.5 unit level play, and see what happens.

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OVER 4.5 -115 STL@MILW first five innings // 3.45 units to win 3

starting pitchers Carlos Martinez at Brent Suter. Both of these starts allow higher batting averages to the opposite side of the plate hitters...and both teams have predominantly the opposite handed hitters in their lineups. The teams have met already a couple times this season, and produced only 1 Under so far....this logic didn't work for my pick last night, but I'm trying it again here. Carlos Martinez has been too wild with his control, allowing walks in recent starts. Also both teams have pretty good history against the starters.

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excuse me, I meant to say the previous games with St.Louis vs Milwaukee have only produced 1 more Under than Overs so far (4-5-1 O/U)

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Matt Carpenter just hit the very first pitch of the game over the wall. Very nice. Just need 4 more of those!

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split tonight's picks so far 1-1 but won the bigger wager, so gonna add ::

UNDER 8.5 -110 TOR@LAA // 1.10 units to win 1

Toronto last 3 games went Over. LA Angels played 6 Overs in a row, before pushing on 9 with Tuesday's game.
Under is "due"
Also not scared of these lineups

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went 1-2 Thursday winning the 3 unit pick, for a net gain of +0.50 units

Thursday June 21

TEXAS -110 first five innings moneyline // 2.20 units to win 2.20

starting pitchers Mike Minor at Fernando Romero. Rangers come in to Minnesota after winning 5 in a row. But the reason I really like this pick is because the Twins lineup looks extremely weak with a bunch of left-handed batters going against the lefty starter Mike Minor. What causes me to lack extreme confidence with the play is because it IS the Rangers after all, who are not world beaters themselves.



will have some more picks....

[2daBank]

Minor does have really good numbers vs twinks lineup. Without looking I’d assume rangers have a pen edge cause twinks pen is trash. Gl buddy

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OVER 9 -130 SEA@BOS *buy 0.5 runs // 1.95 units to win 1.50

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well shiiiit this Over is gonna come in the first inning

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UNDER 9 +102 TEX@MINN // 2 units to win 2.04

The homeplate ump Adrian Johnson has been an Overs machine this year, however he does tend to call significantly more strikeouts than walks. He's gotta call an Under game sooner or later.

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WTF wrong with me.....2 typo mistakes in that first post today at 6:42 PM

I'm not gonna edit my post with the picks, after the fact.

Obviously today is Friday June 22,
and the -110 first five innings moneyline on Texas was the correct odds, so 2.20 risked to win 2

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looking pretty good with the 3 pending picks. Of course not counting any chickens before hatched yet.

UNDER 8.5 -105 TOR@LAA // 1.05 units to win 1

Follow-thru on the Under loss from last night.

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ok final pick of the night, I'll be a sucker and play the Padres....

SAN DIEGO +104 ML // 2 units to win 2.08

starting pitchers Clayton Richard at Chris Stratton, homeplate ump Brian Knight

Wil Myers is back in the lineup again (2nd game coming off Disabled List) after going 0-3 last night against Bumgarner

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June 20 thru 22 results:

-------Wed. June 20-----------
-2.00 OVER 9.5 +100 TEX@KC ---> score 3-2 KC home loss vs TEX
+1.35 TAMPA BAY +0.5 +135 first five inn. ---> score 1-1 tied end 5th (final 5-1 HOU home win vs TB)
+0 push TAMPA BAY +225 first five inn. ML ---> score 1-1 tied end 5th
-------Thurs. June 21-----------
-1.40 OVER 7 +105 BALT@WSH ---> score 4-2 BALT road loss at WSH
+3.00 OVER 4.5 -115 STL@MILW first five inn. ---> score 7-2 MILW lead end 5th (final 11-3 MILW home win vs STL)
-1.10 UNDER 8.5 -110 TOR@LAA ---> score 8-5 TOR road loss at LAA
-------Fri. June 22-----------
+2.00 TEXAS -110 first five inn. ML ---> score 4-0 TEX lead end 5th (final 8-1 TEX road win at MINN)
+1.50 OVER 9 -130 SEA@BOS *buy 0.5 runs ---> score 14-10 BOS home win vs SEA
+0 push UNDER 9 +102 TEX@MINN ---> score 8-1 TEX road win at MINN, scored 4 runs in top 9th)
+1.00 UNDER 8.5 -105 TOR@LAA ---> score 2-1 LAA home win vs TOR
+2.08 SAN DIEGO +104 ML ---> score 6-2 SD road win at SF
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June 20 thru 22 = +6.43 units (W/L = 6-3-2 = .667 pct)
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This Week since Monday = +7.82 units (W/L = 9-6-3 = .600 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = -1.46 units (W/L = 84-88-6 = .488 pct)
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Sweep 4-0-1 on Friday, tarnished only by the pushed Under 9 in Minnesota, which was 4-1 score in the top of the 9th but Texas added on 4 runs at that point. That coulda won me 2 units instead of pushing, and put me past the break-even point on the season...but I'm feeling good about what's ahead....about halfway thru the MLB regular season.

Looking to make a big haul this year, will be aggressive when I'm feeling it, but staying in control.

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Saturday June 23

UNDER 5 -110 SEA@BOS first five innings // 1.10 units to win 1

starting pitchers Mike Leake at Eduardo Rodriguez, homeplate ump Alfonzo Marquez. Taking a small stab at this, one day after these teams played a 14-10 score game. It's a cooler night in Boston, and I come up with a projected total of 4 runs in the first five innings. With the full game total offered at 9 juiced -120 to the Over, I'd think if anything in this game would be later-inning runs given the work put in by both bullpens yesterday.


taking a look at a couple of the other late game, if I can decide before they begin....

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Saturday June 23 - adding ::

UNDER 8.5 -105 TOR@LAA // 2.10 units to win 2

starting pitchers Marcus Stroman at Jaime Barria, homeplate ump Andy Fletcher

Won with the Under yesterday on these teams with 2-1 score. Double-thru on it again. Pujols out of the starting lineup for the Angels, who has been hitting decently lately. Justin Smoak out for the Blue Jays, although he's been cold at the plate anyway. I just see 2 very punchless looking lineups with these teams. And as said in previous nights, both are more on the "due" side for Under games.

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June 23 results:

+0 push UNDER 5 -110 SEA@BOS first five inn. ---> score 5-0 SEA lead end 5th (final 7-2 SEA road win at BOS)
+2.00 UNDER 8.5 -105 TOR@LAA ---> score 4-1 TOR road win at LAA
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June 23 = +2.00 units (W/L = 1-0-1)
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This Week since Monday = +9.82 units (W/L = 10-6-4 = .625 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +0.54 units (W/L = 85-88-7 = .491 pct)
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Finally back to above zero on the season.

Kinda bad to not be showing profit but I got pissed about it and worked out of the hole.

Feeling now in the zone mentally.

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Sunday June 24

MINNESOTA -1.5 -110 runline // 5.50 units to win 5

starting pitchers Bartolo Colon at Jose Berrios. Minnesota lost 3 in a row and face being swept at home against the Texas Rangers, who are on a 7 game win streak.


looking at other games.....

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Sunday June 24 - adding ::

OVER 5.5 +105 TEX@MINN first five innings // 5 units to win 5.25

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Sunday June 24 - adding ::

UNDER 9.5 -110 OAK@CHW // 3.30 units to win 3

starting pitchers Paul Blackburn at Carlos Rodon, homeplate ump Sam Holbrook

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bad reads on the totals today.

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June 24 results:

+5.00 MINNESOTA -1.5 -110 runline ---> score 2-0 home win vs TEX
-5.00 OVER 5.5 +105 TEX@MINN first five inn. ---> score 1-0 MINN lead end 5th
-3.30 UNDER 9.5 -110 OAK@CHW ---> score 10-3 OAK road loss at CHW
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June 24 = -3.30 units (W/L = 1-2)
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This Week since Monday = +6.52 units (W/L = 11-8-4 = .578 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = -2.76 units (W/L = 86-90-7 = .488 pct)
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Monday June 25

UNDER 4 -110 ARIZ@MIAMI first five innings // 3.30 units to win 3

We don't know exactly what we're gonna see from Shelby Miller but without JT Realmuto in the Marlins lineup, and just back home from their series in Colorado, I'd assume Miller is in a good spot here. But Dan Straily starting for Miami has great previous numbers against Arizona, although recently Straily has not looked great, in general. I'd pick Miami to win the game, but just feels gross.

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lost yesterday, gonna stay away from Totals here for a bit.

Tuesday June 26

DETROIT -102 first five innings moneyline // 2.04 units to win 2
*push if tied end 5th

DETROIT +114 ML (full game) // 2 units to win 2.28

Detroit checks every box except one in the stats I look at, only concern is Detroit has been in a hitting funk, while Oakland has been scoring good. But Detroit had 10 hits yesterday in the series opener against Oakland, which they lost 5-4. Think with the 10-hits on Monday they should be able to parlay that into another good game. Additionally, Oakland in their last 5 games (starting with road games at Chicago White Sox) have gone W,L,W,L,W....what's the next outcome in this sequence? Meantime Detroit has lost 6 in a row, but against stiffer competition, getting swept by Cleveland, and before that losing both games of an interleague series at Cincinnati (Tigers don't have a good interleague record).

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Tuesday June 26 - adding ::

TEXAS -120 ML // 6 units to win 5

starting pitchers Tyson Ross at Austin Bibens-Dirkx, homeplate ump John Libka

RLM line movement and the homeplate ump

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lost the Texas pick on Tuesday which really hurt because they had a 2-0 lead against the Padres and the bullpen gave up 3-runs in the top of the 8th inning, which they don't typically blow leads, felt I had the pick right. Then I didn't play last night and Texas won.

Thursday June 28

WASHINGTON +110 ML // 5 units to win 5.50

I'm looking at several aspects to this game. Two things that stand out: 1) Aaron Nola might be Phillies best pitcher (9-2 W/L) vs Tanner Roark who's been inconsistent and some would even say bad, and obviously the public consensus is heavy on Philly, yet the line has been dropping all day. Could it be a headfake? Maybe. But reason 2) this to me looks like a game Washington has to win as a series opener with this division rival. If they can win, both teams will have identical 42-37 W/L records, with Friday, Saturday and Sunday upcoming. Washington has been in a bad funk offensively, culminating by getting shutout both of the last 2 games in Tampa Bay. But tomorrow's game they have this clown Erick Fedde starting which sets them up for a loss against Pivetta for Philly. Not that this is the last days of the season, but it feels to me Washington will pull out all the stops today. When you look at Roark's actual stats, he does give up runs every game, but some are decent and he has worse numbers against left-handed bats, which there are only 3 of in Phillies lineup Herrera, Santana, and Williams tonight. Both teams had their starters go long-innings in yesterday's games, along with using just one closer each....but the Phillies had Seranthony Dominguez go 2 innings for the close, so he will certainly be unavailable tonight.

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The Washington game last night a big part of my reasoning was the Phillies closer Seranthony Dominguez wasn't gonna be available, due to pitching 2 full innings in their previous game, and working in consecutive games before that. But in the top of 9th, Nationals had the comeback rally happening, and Philly brought in Dominguez to get 2 outs....he was a bit wild, let a runner score, but stopped the bleeding. Anyway the pick might have been foolish due to the Nats being cold and it's usually best to either fade such teams, or just pass.

Very frustrated with this week's results after thinking I was seeing things clearly....well, clearly not the case.

This is kinda what happened to me last year in MLB, firing 5 unit bombs and losing. Ended digging out of the large hole last year, but it took until the final game of the World Series.

The reason for the bigger unit picks is based on confidence and looking to score some meaningful profit. I'm sure when losing, it just looks like I'm chasing with good money after bad. I'm playing to win and my numbers here are transparent, is all I can say.

Friday June 29

OVER 8.5 -110 ATL@STL // 5.50 units to win 5

What we have tonight is perfect hitting conditions in terms of weather in St.Louis. Our posting pal Banker already pointed out that the Cardinals home game previous results this year have not adhered much to the good weather conditions for hitting. But this is perhaps the very best conditions of the year for tonight's game, so I feel the need to hammer the Over big. On the downside, we have 2 good pitchers starting the game tonight, Julio Teheran at Miles Mikolas.


will probably have another pick or two.....

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Saturday June 30

OVER 9 -115 DET@TOR // 2.30 units to win 2

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yet another loss in my early game selection. Hopefully someone is fading and getting rich.

Saturday June 30 - adding ::

WHITE SOX +110 first five innings moneyline // 3 units to win 3.30

WHITE SOX +114 ML (full game) // 3.51 units to win 4

starting pitchers Carlos Rodon at Bartolo Colon, homeplate ump Joe West. Rodon has high strikeout potential against this Texas lineup, who cruised to an easy win last night in the series opener by a final score of 11-3, as they scored early and often. Rodon is coming off an 8-inning outing and should give the Sox a great chance to beat old man Colon in the Texas heat.

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Saturday June 30 - adding ::

UNDER 3.5 -103 PITT@SD first five innings // 2.06 units to win 2

PITTSBURGH +125 ML (full game) // 2 units to win 2.50

starting pitchers Trevor Williams at Joey Lucchesi, homeplate ump Bill Miller.

Padres rank dead-last MLB in Slugging percentage against RHP, and rank 27th in Batting Average against RHP.

Pirates rank 10th best in Slugging against LHP, and rank 12th in Batting Average against LHP. Tonight they are facing a good lefty, so I'm taking the Under in the first five innings, with this 3.5 runs I shopped around to find it instead of the Under 4 with heavy juice.

Pirates won 6-3 last night, and have been the team with better recent wins. Padres are just 2-8 W/L in their last 10 games.