only winner on the night by a 4-1 score in this one. The pitching matchup was about even I thought and Cincinnati had just won their 10th overall game on the season at home on Wednesday by a 2-1 score vs the Mets (that game saw the Mets bumble with their lineup card which caused them to lose a double in the top of the first).....anyway I thought Reds might carry some momentum and have a decent chance tonight vs a struggling Dodgers team....which usually isn't even the case with the bad pitching staff of the Reds.
-
Comment -
this lost badly with Angels winning 7-4, after they scored 2 runs early in both the 2nd and 3rd innings. The key here mighta been the homeplate ump Larry Vanover ranks as the 4th best "hitter friendly" ump looking at his ball/strike ratio and other such ump metrics. Berrios is the type of pitcher in particular who will not benefit from a tightly called strike zone.
so, W/L = 1-3 tonight for approx -5.00 units which was the amount of the Rockies loss.Comment -
Friday May 11
WASHINGTON -1.5 -110 runline // 4.40 units to win 4
TEAM TOTAL ARIZONA OVER 3 -115 // 5.75 units to win 5
the reason for the Team Total pick is because Max Scherzer starting for Washington in Chase Field is pretty consistent allowing an ERA of 3 runs....note it doesn't mean he gives up 3 actual runs to the Diamondbacks (ERA not the same thing, if he goes less than 9 innings), but then I'd expect Arizona to score a couple off the bullpen. I think the 3 number will be good for a push if not the win.Comment -
bottom of the first, Arizona get 2nd and 3rd base nobody out, but couldn't score, Goldschmidt strikeout, Descalso infield pop out, Owings strikeoutComment -
runline wins with Washington cruising to a ho-hum 3-1 win. I think that bottom of the first inning woulda changed the whole tone of this game had the Dbacks scored....their offense gotta be among the coldest in the league right now, so Team Total was probably a bad add-on by me for that reason.Comment -
Sunday May 13
ATLANTA -0.5 -105 first five innings // 3.15 units to win 3
more to come laterComment -
adding ::
UNDER 4 +105 SEA@DET *sell 0.5 runs // 3 units to win 3.15Comment -
adding ::
OVER 7.5 MINN@LAA -105 // 2.10 units to win 2Comment -
^^^I did see before making the pick that Trout was out of today's lineup for his first day off of the year. But the Over pick was based on the homeplate ump David Rackley, plus this Romero for Minnesota getting a lot of hype after two scoreless starts, and figured he's due to be hit. It's early but so far Ohtani is mowing down the Twins. Both teams have got a few base runners but no score so far into the bottom of the third.Comment -
Sunday night game
OVER 8.5 -120 WSH@ARIZ // 6 units to win 5Comment -
May 10,11,13 results:
-2.02 KANSAS CITY -0.5 -101 first five inn. ----> score 10-6 BALT lead end 5th (final 11-6 KC road loss at BALT)
-4.00 UNDER 7 +115 MINN@LAA *sell 0.5 runs ----> score 7-4 MINN road loss at LAA
-5.00 COLORADO -140 ML ----> score 5-2 home loss vs MILW
+5.90 CINCINNATI -1.5 +295 alternate runline ---> score 4-1 road win at LAD
------------------
+4.00 WASHINGTON -1.5 -110 runline ---> score 3-1 road win at ARIZ
-5.75 ARIZONA TEAM TOTAL OVER 3 -115
------------------
+3.00 ATLANTA -0.5 -105 first five innings ---> score 1-0 ATL lead end 5th (final 4-3 road win at MIAM)
-3.00 UNDER 4 +105 SEA@DET *sell 0.5 runs ----> score 3-2 DET lead end 5th (final 5-4 SEA road loss at DET)
-2.10 OVER 7.5 MINN@LAA -105 ----> score 2-1 MINN road loss at LAA (contrarian pick, Romero at Ohtani starters)
+5.00 OVER 8.5 -120 WSH@ARIZ ---> score 6-4 WSH road win at ARIZ (WSH sweep 4-games)
------------------
May 10,11,13 = -3.97 units (W/L = 4-6)
OVERALL THREAD = +9.07 units (W/L = 44-44-3 = .500 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back down to .500 overall W/L
gotta tighten up on my picks....too many yesterday for example, Atlanta was my favorite pick and then I added a couple losers, and had to hit the Sunday Night game large to recoup. Been gambling too much.Comment -
Monday May 14
SAN DIEGO -1.5 +205 runline // 1 unit to win 2.05
starting out with this one, still looking if anything else to add.
Pitching matchup is Tyler Anderson at Joey Lucchesi, two lefties who have both been pitching lights out. The risk with the runline Padres as the home team, is if they only win by 1. But that moneyline is sitting around pick 'em, so I'll take a one unit shot to get the much better odds +205 on the runline. Not only did the Padres win their last two games against the Cardinals, but the Rockies looked like azz this weekend losing 3 of 4 games at home vs Milwaukee.Comment -
Monday May 14 - adding ::
SAN FRANCISO -1.5 +150 runline // 1 unit to win 1.50
using the same logic as the Padres pick with this one, still looking if anything else to add.
Pitching matchup is Sal Romano at Chris Stratton....Romano probably been a better performer between these two, but then you have the Reds bullpen vs the Giants bullpen. Reds just pulled off an unexpected sweep at LA Dodgers, but that speaks more to the terrible slump the Dodgers are in. San Francisco lost their first two games in Pittsburgh, but won a 5-0 shutout yesterday. So with them favored tonight, take the runline +150 instead of the -135 moneyline.Comment -
split last night with Padres loss and Giants win for a small 0.50 unit profit.
Tuesday May 15 - early game
SAN DIEGO +102 ML // 2 units to win 2.04
SAN DIEGO -1.5 +220 alternate runline // 1 unit to win 2.20
3 units total at risk here. System-type play following thru on the Padres in this day game, which is the last of this short 2-game series at home vs Colorado. It's the Padres so I'm not real confident about it, but discovered I'm usually better-off to follow-thru aka "Double-up" as some people say if the pick loses the first day.Comment -
Tuesday May 15 - adding ::
CHW WHITE SOX +133 ML // 2 units to win 2.66
White Sox coming off an interleague win Sunday at the Cubs (after losing the first 2-games of that series). Meantime, Pirates lost 5-0 on Sunday at home as they were shutout by the Giants, but won the first two games of that series. So it looks like a little bit of "who's hot, who's not" short-term here.
Pirates beat the White Sox both games when they played just last week. Ok they've been the better team this year. But now look at what today and tomorrow bring:
today is pitching matchup Reynaldo Lopez at Trevor Williams.
tomorrow is scheduled starters Carson Fulmer at Jameson Taillon.
Taillon has regressed a bit lately, but my logic here says the Pirates WON'T win 4-games in a row against the Sox. Not that it's impossible, but I'm going with the feeling the White Sox win either today or tomorrow.....so having said that..... I definitely feel today is the better matchup for the Sox to win. In fact, these exact same two starters faced-off on May 9 and it was the White Sox taking a 4-0 lead in the first few innings, but their bullpen blew it in the top of the 9th inning, giving up 4 runs to lose by a final score of 6-5.Comment -
as for record-keeping, I'm going to do a weekly tally to figure my net profit / loss on a Monday thru Sunday basis
still will briefly mention daily results. But detailed tally on the weekly basis to save time involved.Comment -
Tuesday May 15 - adding ::
TEXAS +120 ML // 1 unit to win 1.20
TEXAS -1.5 +204 alternate runline // 1 unit to win 2.04
2 units total at risk here. Seattle won a 1-0 game in Minnesota yesterday, while the Rangers had a day off. We heard the news that not only did Robinson Cano have his hand broken being hit by a pitch, but even before this, he had dirty drug test for what is perceived to be a "masking agent" drug at this time, and so he is suspended for 80-games regardless of the broken hand.
Texas isn't good, but the starting pitchers are Mike Minor at Mike Leake, so anything could happen as far as that goes. Taking the Rangers with two units risked split at +120 and +204.Comment -
Tuesday May 15 - adding ::
LA DODGERS -0.5 -127 first five innings // 2 units to win 1.57
pitching matchup Alex Wood at Wei-Yin Chen, both lefties
this looks like a total no-brainer pick, other than the fact how cold the Dodgers have been batting. And Miami has played better in recent games. I'd go bigger on it if not for those two factors.Comment -
after yesterday began with a Padres win, lost all added picks for net -1.76 units on the day. Texas was close, but lost in extra innings at Seattle.
Wed. May 16 - early games
PHILADELPHIA -120 first five innings ML // 2.40 units to win 2
*push if tie score end of five inningsComment -
adding ::
CHW WHITE SOX +163 ML // 2.46 units to win 4
I was debating whether to follow thru on this or not after they lost badly 7-0 yesterday, but I feel better about it with Hector Santiago starting, believe it or not, instead of Carson Fulmer who I thought thought would be the starter vs Jameson TaillonComment -
Nothing is working right for me at the moment with MLB.
Lose on the Phillies first five innings today by a 1-0 score, but they won the full game 4-1 score.
Lose on the White Sox follow-thru play by a final 3-2....both teams had chances for more runs, but no real surprise White Sox can't come thru....in fact, the early 2-runs the Pirates got was on another misplayed ball hit to the outfield, which wasn't an error technically, but he dove and missed then the ball got by, instead of pulling up and playing the ball on 1 bounce which was the proper thing to do and woulda allowed just 1 run to score.
Did NOT follow-thru on Texas from yesterday, and they are about to win and cover the alternate runline....albeit on a very flukey top 9th inning.Comment -
Wed. May 16 - adding ::
OVER 6 +127 first five inn. CHC@ATL *sell 0.5 runs // 4 units to win 5.08
gotta do this, but I'll probably be wrong. Both pitchers walk a ton of batters, the homeplate ump calls a lot of walks / generates a lot of Overs in his games behind the plate, and both teams rank highest in the National League in drawing walks. All of that points to a lot of baserunners early in this game, on a warm and humid day in Atlanta. The one risk I see is both pitches tend to get groundballs when contact is made.
Selling the 0.5 runs gives a significantly better +plus oddsComment -
oh boy....both teams making outstanding catches deep in the outfield so far, keeping runs off the board
1-0 Atlanta early but feels like should be more scoringComment -
this is a bummer, Cubs especially showing no patience at the plate. Drew their first walk of the game in the top of the 4th but couldn't do anything with it.
I guess lesson learned here might be as for both teams leading in Walks....must be against lower competition. These two are evenly matched at the present time, so no distinct advantage.
Also the weather is warm and humid tonight, but not Hot weather like it will get soon in the weeks ahead.Comment -
OVERALL THREAD is -1.05 units down after this bad run
will do weekly detail tally on Sunday as I said beforeComment -
Thursday May 17
UNDER 5 -105 first five innings OAK@TOR // 2.10 units to win 2
Comment -
relievers in the game before 5 innings complete and with 3-1 score, Matt Olson blasts a 3-run homerun for Oakland.
Triggs started for Oakland but was replaced in the 3rd with a blister on his thumb.
bad pick, didn't stand a chance.Comment -
Friday May 18
MIAMI TEAM TOTAL OVER 4 -108 // 3.24 units to win 3
KANSAS CITY +160 ML // 1 unit to win 1.60
HOUSTON -0.5 -115 first five innings // 2.30 units to win 2Comment -
adding ::
MINNESOTA -141 ML // 2.82 units to win 2Comment -
Sunday May 20
OVER 7.5 -105 LAD@WSH // 1.05 units to win 1
UNDER 9 -110 MIL@MINN // 3.30 units to win 3
looking at a couple later games still....Comment -
I'm encouraged by a 2-0 day here for +4.00 units. It restores some confidence. There were a bunch of easier games to pick with runline being covered by Mets, Boston, Yankees, and Cubs...those were all obvious type plays.
Will do my weekly tally in a bit.Comment -
May 14 thru May 20 results:
--------Mon. May 14----------
-1.00 SAN DIEGO -1.5 +205 runline ---> score 6-4 home loss vs COL
+1.50 SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +150 runline ---> score 10-7 home win vs CIN
-------Tue. May 15-----------
+2.04 SAN DIEGO +102 ML ---> score 4-0 home win vs COL
+2.20 SAN DIEGO -1.5 +220 alternate runline
-2.00 CHW WHITE SOX +133 ML ---> score 7-0 road loss at PITT
-1.00 TEXAS +120 ML ---> score 9-8 road loss at SEA (extra innings 11 th)
-1.00 TEXAS -1.5 +204 alternate runline
-2.00 LA DODGERS -0.5 -127 first five inn. ---> score 2-0 MIAM lead end 5th (final 4-2 road loss at MIAM)
--------Wed. May 16----------
-2.40 PHILADELPHIA -120 first five inn. ML ---> score 1-0 BALT lead end 5th (final 4-1 road win at BALT)
-2.46 CHW WHITE SOX +163 ML ---> score 3-2 road loss at PITT
-4.00 OVER 6 +127 first five inn. CHC@ATL *sell 0.5 runs ---> score 1-1 end 5th (final 4-1 CHC road loss at ATL)
-------Thurs. May 17-----------
-2.10 OVER 5 -105 first five inn. OAK@TOR ---> score 7-4 OAK lead end 5th (final 10-5 OAK road win)
-------Fri. May 18-----------
+2.00 HOUSTON -0.5 -115 first five inn. ---> score 1-0 HOU lead end 5th (final 4-1 home win vs CLE)
+1.60 KANSAS CITY +160 ML ---> score 5-2 home win vs NYY
-3.24 MIAMI TEAM TOTAL OVER 4 -108 ---> score 2-0 MIAM road win at ATL (starters Straily at Wisler)
-2.82 MINNESOTA -141 ML ---> score 8-3 home loss vs MILW
-------Sun. May 20-----------
+1.00 OVER 7.5 -105 LAD@WSH ---> score 7-2 LAD road win at WSH (starters Wood at Strasburg)
+3.00 UNDER 9 -110 MIL@MINN ---> score 3-1 MINN home win vs MIL (starters Guerra at Odorizzi)
------------------
May 14 thru 20th = -10.68 units (W/L = 7-11)
OVERALL THREAD = -1.61 units (W/L = 51-55-3 = .481 pct)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mid-week cold streak. Slowed down Thursday played one game and lost it. Friday went 2-2 but lost units by adding a game, so took Saturday off and studied a bit. Came up with 2-0 for Sunday. At the same time, there were some pretty easy mis-matches on Sunday that I passed on but were easy runline winners.Comment -
Tuesday May 22
start with a Player prop I like -
COREY DICKERSON
+290 YES HOMERUN // 1 unit to win 2.90
+115 TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5 // 1 unit to win 1.15Comment -
adding ::
ARIZONA -0.5 +155 first five innings // 1 unit to win 1.55
OVER 5 -130 ARIZ@MILW first five innings // 3.90 units to win 3
UNDER 5 -110 DET@MINN // 2.20 units to win 2
still working on the other games.....Comment -
Wed. May 23
SAN DIEGO -1.5 +220 alternate runline // 2 units to win 4.40
Tyson Ross startingComment