Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

[hotcross]

MLB season will be tracked. Welcome discussion and questions.
Sometimes I will post analysis, but not the majority of the time.

I spread my risk units from 1-to-5 for the most part, my philosophy is is to risk more on high confidence picks, and to press higher when winning.
.....................................

OPENING DAY - Thursday March 29

UNDER 8.5 -106 NYY@TOR // 1.06 units to win 1

[hotcross]

got the first win under my belt, 6-1 Yankees road win.

Wanted to mention I will probably only update my ongoing record on a weekly basis (not daily) to reduce the time involved as we go along.

I'm also thinking about sticking with "spot plays" instead of volume, to hopefully bolster my win percentage and profits. I'm usually more fluid than rigid when it comes to imposing rules, so we'll see how it feels.

[wkupike2000]

Any records from past years? Been following your NHL, appreciate it all!

[hotcross]

I joined SBR in Aug.2017 and started tracking MLB thread, which went to a season low of -30.78 units but stuck with it to finish the final game of the World Series at -1.08 units overall (so improved as it went along).

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3413568-new-sbr-p4.html#post27325305

Before that, I've had good seasons in MLB and NHL but its never a guarantee. I'd like to believe that being more experienced as time progresses plus loving these two sports contributes to the likelihood of success.

Wanted to mention the book I use for MLB is "Listed Pitchers Must Start" unless otherwise noted.

[hotcross]

thanks for the betpoints, gentlemen !!!

Heads up, probably no picks today, starting the season off slow / observing games. And I have things going on today.

[hotcross]

Saturday March 31

SEATTLE first five innings moneyline -113 // 1.13 units to win 1
*push if tied after 5 inn.

[wkupike2000]

Indians grand slam in 1st. That blows!! I'm riding with ya.

[hotcross]

yeah, figure Mariners score 3 in the first five innings with this pitching matchup it would have been good. Paxton wasn't ready for the start.

[hotcross]

Saturday March 31 - adding ::

KANSAS CITY -106 ML // 1.06 units to win 1

The thinking here is although KC is projected to be terrible this year, but so is Chicago White Sox, nothing new there. I think people are buying the hype still on CHW starter Lucas Giolito, and you have Ian Kennedy throwing for KC today who is nothing special, but he is a groundballer, so that should cool down the Sox bats after they won 14-7 in KC. Also its gonna be pretty cold at the park, I think that affects the "Soft Sox" more, so I'm taking the home team to even up this opening series.

[hotcross]

game not finished yet, but looks like KC didn't want to win it. Up 3-1 in top 8th and they leave reliever Brandon Mauer out there to give up 3 runs, when he obviously didn't have it today, nor yesterday. The runs didn't all come at once, they just left him to struggle out there until he finished the inning.

Bullpen pitchers can be so frustrating when you're on the wrong side. Might need to look into selectively just playing Overs.

[hotcross]

1-2 on the season after 0-2 Saturday

Sunday April 1

ST. LOUIS -0.5 -106 first five innings // 3.18 units to win 3

[hotcross]

OVER 2 -108 OAKLAND TEAM TOTAL first five innings // 3.24 units to win 3

[hotcross]

TAMPA BAY first five innings moneyline -122 // 3.66 units to win 3
*push if tied after 5 inn.

Sunday card complete

[hotcross]

OPENING WEEK results:

Thursday March 29
+1.00 UNDER 8.5 -106 NYY@TOR ----> score 6-1 NYY road win at TOR
------------------
Saturday March 31
-1.13 SEATTLE first five ML ---> score 6-3 CLE end 5th (final 6-5 CLE road win)
-1.06 KANSAS CITY ML ---> score 4-3 home loss vs CHW (KC ahead 3-1 end 5 inn.)
------------------
Sunday April 1
+3.00 ST. LOUIS -0.5 -106 first five ----> score 4-1 end 5th (final 5-1 STL road win at NYM)
+3.00 OVER 2 -108 OAKLAND TEAM TOTAL first five innings ---> score 4-3 LAA end 5th (OAK home 3-run HR Matt Chapman bottom 2nd inn. vs Ohtani MLB pitching debut)
+0 push TAMPA BAY -122 first five ML ----> score 1-1 end 5th (final 2-1 BOS road win)
------------------
OPENING WEEK = +4.81 units (W/L = 3-2-1 = .600 pct)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The notes in parenthesis are there to help me track what happened. In some cases, to see if a first five innings only pick result was different than full-game result.

Note to anyone tailing / fading: as I said in the first post my units spread 1-to-5 based on higher confidence picks (and other factors) because my long-term win percentage is 45-50%....so I vary the units risked to scratch out profits....therefore its important that you follow the unit amounts. I don't like setting goals for myself about how many units to win in a given time / season, but always trying to win and improve.

Usually the picks are in BOLD FONT but not always if I'm on mobile device, so that has no bearing on confidence level, if anyone wondering.

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 3

UNDER 4.5 -127 first five innings CLE@LAA // 1.27 units to win 1

LA ANGELS -1 +108 // 2 units to win 2.16

[2daBank]

I like halo's too. Gl bro

[hotcross]

LOL 5-2:Angels after 1 inning. Ohtani hits first MLB homerun

[wkupike2000]

I had under 8 on game and that's gone too. I thought your bet looked good

[hotcross]

actually the score was 6-2 at the end of the first inning on Ohtani's 3-run HR...it might have been a grand slam if the pitcher hadn't already brought in the runner on third with the wild pitch. I suppose could say that I was halfway right about the Under, as Cleveland did not score after the 2 they got in the top of the first. Still turned a small profit on this game.

April 3 results:

-1.27 UNDER 4.5 first five CLE@LAA ---> score 11-2 LAA end 5th
+2.16 LA ANGELS -1 +108 ---> final score 13-2 LAA home win vs CLE
------------------
April 3 = +0.89 units (W/L = 1-1)

OVERALL THREAD = +5.70 units (W/L = 4-3-1 = .571 pct)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[hotcross]

Wed. April 4 - early game

BALTIMORE +154 ML // 1 unit to win 1.54

Orioles gotta win a game at some point (1-4 record). At least they're sitting Chris Davis today, after hitting him leadoff so far producing nothing! Bundy @ Keuchel are listed pitchers.

[StackinGreen]

BOL hotcross

[hotcross]

Wed. April 4 - late game

OAKLAND -1.5 RL +124 // 1 unit to win 1.24

OAKLAND -160 ML // 1.60 unit to win 1

After splitting the first two games of this series, both teams sport a 2-4 record on the season. Texas won last night 4-1 in a pitching matchup of Hamels @ Graveman, as +115 underdog. Texas is a much bigger dog in tonight's game going up against Oakland starting lefty Sean Manaea, who was a tough-luck loser in his first outing, a 2-1 home loss to the Angels, in which he went 7-2/3 innings with 7 strikeouts, no walks, and just one earned run on a solo shot by Mike Trout. Manaea has a 2-0 home record with 2.81 ERA in previous matchups against Texas. Oakland has won 14 of 21 previous home games vs Texas. Doug Fister won his first start this season at home vs Houston, in which he went only 5 innings, giving up 3 walks and recording just 3 strikeout, but allowing just one run.

Keep in mind as always for me, splitting the risk between the Runline and Moneyline, if Oakland wins by exactly one run, I'll be counting that as W/L 1-1 for a net breakeven.

[StackinGreen]

under under under hotcross, love that Manaea vs Fister action, plus odds too

[hotcross]

I hear ya, but I'm really learning to take Unders in ANY sport is dangerous anymore. Think only wise to pick Overs selectively, and forgettabout unders.

[hotcross]

what a stupid play for Baltimore in the bottom of the 6th leading to the tying run. Reddick singles to the right fielder, Santander, who then threw the ball away just throwing back to the infield, so Altuve advances to third base....next play Marwin Gonzalez executes the squeeze play bringing home Altuve to make the score 2-2. Game wasn't done at that point, but in a tight one on the road, the Orioles gifted an out/run to the World Champs.

I just write this kind of thing to help me track what happened. 1 unit risk lost on the road dog. Houston won 3-2 score. Reddick has still been incredibly hot at the plate.

[hotcross]

April 4 results:

-1.00 BALTIMORE +154 ML ----> score 3-2 road loss at HOU
+1.24 OAKLAND -1.5 +124 ---> score 6-2 OAK home win vs TEX
+1.00 OAKLAND -160 ML
------------------
April 4 = +1.24 units (W/L = 2-1)

OVERALL THREAD = +6.94 units (W/L = 6-4-1 = .600 pct)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[StackinGreen]

under under under hotcross, love that Manaea vs Fister action, plus odds too

[hotcross]

Stackin' !!! Yes saw that Under win by the hook, but it had to be nerve-racking for about the last 3.5 innings, especially during the Oakland at-bats towards the end of the game, they coulda scored more than they did. Hey my Oakland pick was an easy win, and that's what I'm looking for is to pick all the easy wins! Blowouts!

Totals - the book I'm using allows me to play "Alternate Totals" aka "Selling points" which moves the line to +plus odds situation. Some of the major online books allow about 4-runs to be sold (or bought), the book I'm using now only allows moving the line by one run. And then in my experience Vegas books DON'T allow runs to be sold or bought (maybe football like one point, but not baseball at all)....

I'm gonna try doing this, seeking some spot plays to go Over, and gonna Sell the run (or maybe a half-run) to move the line to +plus odds, and track the results here.

[hotcross]

fell asleep all day yesterday and missed the action

Fri. April 6

CINCINNATI -120 ML // 1.20 units to win 1
Listed pitchers must start, as always, unless otherwise noted

Castillo @ Williams


likely will have more picks, going to talk with a psychic now

[hotcross]

Fri Apr. 6 - adding ::

TEXAS first five inn. ML +107 // 1 unit to win 1.07
*push if tied at end 5th

Marco Estrada @ Matt Moore listed

[hotcross]

ooooh way off both games. Well it was a new psychic I visited for the first time. I asked for the blowout games and she done gave me the wrong sides! I'm gonna have to be more specific with her.

[hotcross]

April 6 results:

-1.20 CINCINNATI -120 ML ----> score 14-3 road loss at PITT
-1.00 TEXAS +107 first five ML ----> score 6-0 TOR lead end 5th at TEX
------------------
April 6 = -2.20 units (W/L = 0-2)

OVERALL THREAD = +4.74 units (W/L = 6-6-1 = .500 pct)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[hotcross]

Saturday April 7 - early game

TAMPA BAY +156 ML // 1 unit to win 1.56

OVER 9 +100 TB@BOS // 1 unit to win 1

[2daBank]

Saturday April 7 - early game

TAMPA BAY +156 ML // 1 unit to win 1.56

OVER 9 +100 TB@BOS // 1 unit to win 1

I played both these also, felt little silly cause felt like the Tampa play was almost a hedge against Sox offense continuing to suck! Lol. Hope they both cash somehow for us! Gl today

[hotcross]

shoulda put more on the Over here, eh Banker

this Faria guy starting the season terrible, like no chance. Barely can find the plate and when he does the Sox rip him a new one. Thought this youngster is supposed to be good?