Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

[hotcross]

Saturday April 7 - adding ::

ST. LOUIS -104 ML // 1.04 units to win 1

YES SCORE FIRST INN +106 ARIZ@STL // 1 unit to win 1.06

[hotcross]

April 7 results:

-1.00 TAMPA BAY +156 ML ----> score 10-3 road loss at BOS
+1.00 OVER 9 +100 TB@BOS
+1.00 ST. LOUIS -104 ML ----> score 5-3 home win vs ARIZ
+1.06 YES SCORE FIRST INN. +106 ARIZ@STL ---> score 1-1 end first inning
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April 7 = +2.06 units (W/L = 3-1)

OVERALL THREAD = +6.80 units (W/L = 9-7-1 = .562 pct)
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[hotcross]

Sunday April 8

Playing some volume, and value picks, so to speak. I have reasons for all of them, but not time to writeup. Tailers might want to tread lightly, but I'm playing these. Could add some on the later games.

NY YANKEES -0.5 -125 first five innings // 3.75 units to win 3

CHICAGO WHITE SOX -0.5 -125 first five innings // 3.75 units to win 3

CINCINNATI first five innings ML +137 // 1 unit to win 1.37
*push if tie score end of five innings

TAMPA BAY first five innings ML +177 // 1 unit to win 1.77
*push if tie score end of five innings

TEAM TOTAL SAN DIEGO OVER 1.5 +100 first five innings // 1 unit to win 1

MILWAUKEE -1.5 +217 alternative runline // 1 unit to win 2.17

[Slipknot26]

Good luck hotcross

[hotcross]

looks like +/- one unit coming on the above

Sunday April 8 - adding ::

PLAYER PROP
ANDREW MCCUTCHEN TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5 +120
risk 2 units to win 2.40

[hotcross]

McCutchen just smacked one good (108 mph exit velocity measured) that had potential to be a double in the bottom of the 7th, but Joc Pederson made a fine catch.

Reason for the prop was twofold: 1) McCutch was hot yesterday, going 6 for 7 with a double and homer, plus 2) he hit Kershaw pretty good in previous all-time plate appearances H2H, stats 10 for 30 with 3x doubles and a homer against Kershaw.

Game not quite finished, but that looks like the last chance. Kershaw is on his game well-enough and Giants aren't getting much of anything going against him.

[hotcross]

Sunday April 8 - Sunday Night Baseball

OVER 8 -105 NYM@WSH // 2.10 units to win 2

Played too much volume today, but wanted to try it and check how it went.

This Over is kinda a pick based on the line itself. I mean why is this thing sitting at 8 ?? It was 8 yesterday with arguably inferior pitchers, and the final score was 3-2. But yet tonight in the cold weather and supposedly better pitchers we have the 8 again being offered.

[hotcross]

won the Sunday night game but lost about 2 units on the day

Monday April 9

MINNESOTA +144 ML // 2.08 units to win 3

[hotcross]

April 8 & 9 results:

+3.00 NY YANKEES -0.5 -125 first five innings ----> score 6-4 NYY lead end 5th (final 8-7 home loss vs BALT in 12 innings)
-3.75 CHICAGO WHITE SOX -0.5 -125 first five innings ----> score 1-0 home loss vs DET (only run scored top first by DET)
-1.00 CINCINNATI first five innings ML +137 ----> score 5-0 end 5th (final also 5-0 road loss at PITT)
+1.77 TAMPA BAY first five innings ML +177 ----> score 4-2 TB lead end 5th (final 8-7 road loss at BOS - gave up 6 runs bottom 8th)
-1.00 TEAM TOTAL SAN DIEGO OVER 1.5 +100 first five innings ----> score 4-1 road loss at HOU
-1.00 MILWAUKEE -1.5 +217 alternative runline ----> score 3-0 home loss vs CHC
-2.00 PLAYER PROP McCUTCHEN OVER 1.5 BASES +120 ----> went 0 for 4 in SF home loss 2-1 vs LAD in 10 innings
+2.00 OVER 8 -105 NYM@WSH ----> score 6-5 NYM road win at WSH in 12 innings
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-2.08 MINNESOTA +144 ML ----> score 2-0 home loss vs HOU
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April 8 & 9 = -4.10 units (W/L = 3-6)

OVERALL THREAD = +2.70 units (W/L = 12-13-1 = .480 pct)
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Minnesota had several chances to win tonight, but the way it played out, they didn't deserve the win. Lance Lynn pitched great in his first ever start at Target Field, but only went 5 full innings after 105 pitches....had 4 walks, 9 strikeouts, gave up 3 hits and 0 runs. Verlander went 7 innings, only 1 walk, 9 strikeouts gave up 4 hits and 0 runs on 109 pitches. Houston offense was still pretty cold, as was the temperature in the low 30's.

As the home team tried to comeback in the bottom of the 8th, Twins got the bases loaded with one out.....Houston made a pitching change and the cleanup hitter Eddie Rosario hits into a taylor-made double-play groundout on THE FIRST PITCH HE SAW....that's the kind of thing that drives me crazy....not smart....seen no pitches from the reliever that just came into the game!


Had I played every game on Monday's slate with my leans, honestly would have gone 8-4 W/L. Been around long enough to know it can easily go opposite of that 4-8 so I don't actually play that way picking the whole board. But the goal is to play the best couple of picks every time, and unfortunately Minnesota going up against Verlander wasn't the best pick on the board today....not just in hindsight, objectively speaking. Wake up call to myself.

[StackinGreen]

Let's get it today hot cross

I'm finally gonna break out after two fairly big downturns on RRs

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 10

OAKLAND -0.5 +141 first five innings // 1.49 units to win 2.10

OAKLAND +114 ML // 1 unit to win 1.14

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 10 - adding ::

SAN FRANCISCO +100 ML // 2 units to win 2

[hotcross]

April 10 results:

-1.49 OAKLAND -0.5 +141 first five innings ----> score 2-0 LAD home lead end 5th
-1.00 OAKLAND +114 ML ----> final score 4-0 road loss at LAD
+2.00 SAN FRANCISCO +100 ML ----> score 5-4 home win vs ARIZ
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April 10 = -0.49 units (W/L = 1-2)

OVERALL THREAD = +2.21 units (W/L = 13-15-1 = .464 pct)
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Minnesota - had them previous night, shoulda followed thru on them at home against Houston in game 2 of the series, but I kinda didn't know whether to trust Odorizzi starting against Keuchel.....Houston bats remained cold and Minny won it 4-1
.......................


As always, when I make two/ or more picks involving the same team and they both lose = count that as two losses to the Overall record.

[StackinGreen]

Who you like today?

[hotcross]

just about to decide, have my mind on the hockey playoffs starting tonight.

Felt like I've been leaving money on the table with some of the baseball games passed on....Mets, Red Sox been rolling !!

[hotcross]

Wed. April 11 - early game

ATLANTA +108 ML // 1 unit to win 1.08

Braves to avoid the sweep. After facing the two toughest pitchers of the Nats, they get AJ Cole today, who they've hit in the past, in limited appearances.

[StackinGreen]

You taking my picks now HOT? Let's cash bro

2-1, gave it up, now 3-2 in the 11th ... flirting with another blown save

[hotcross]

wild ride, ending to Atlanta game was nuts, bottom 9th Washington tied, then again in bottom 11th, after Braves scores just once in the top 11th leaving men on 2nd and 3rd base when for some reason Enciarte decided to try to steal home! Talk about worse boneheaded shiiittt than a blown save....WTH was he doing?? Lucky for me they survived and scored twice in the top 12th and Atlanta finally won 5-3

[hotcross]

Wed. April 11 - adding last minute ::

UNDER 9 -147 TOR@BALT // 1.47 units to win 1
*buying 0.5 runs

[OlDirtyBaztid]

Wed. April 11 - adding last minute ::

UNDER 9 -147 TOR@BALT // 1.47 units to win 1
*buying 0.5 runs

likewise. i didn't buy the hook but i don't think we will need it. jays got a couple big men out, both pitchers tough to hit. let's hope their bullpens don't get creative

[hotcross]

expensive insurance for a half run....should never do it, but kinda rushed it in

they went Under last night, so it might double-up with the circumstances. Orioles can put up a number at any time they choose to wake up.

[StackinGreen]

You believe this toler guy? This should be fun if those late games also hit ...

[hotcross]

April 11 results:

+1.08 ATLANTA +108 ML ----> score 5-3 road win at WSH in 12 innings
+1.00 UNDER 9 -147 TOR@BALT ----> score 5-3 BALT home win vs TOR
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April 11 = +2.08 units (W/L = 2-0)

OVERALL THREAD = +4.29 units (W/L = 15-15-1 = .500 pct)
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Oakland - had them previous night, shoulda followed thru on them at LA Dodgers, as they shellacked them 16-6.

As for jtoler vs Stackin', they love to hate each other. Actually don't want jtoler's name mentioned in my thread! He probably has a search function and will see us talking about him. For some reason my picks threads stay very civilized.....think guys can see I keep good records and trying my best to win.....not saying I'm the only one who is.....but no drama zone here.

[hotcross]

Thurs. April 12

KANSAS CITY +125 ML // 1 unit to win 1.25

OVER 8.5 -106 DET@CLE // 1.06 units to win 1

still examining the other games.....

[hotcross]

Thurs. April 12

KANSAS CITY +125 ML // 1 unit to win 1.25

OVER 8.5 -106 DET@CLE // 1.06 units to win 1

still examining the other games.....

guess I got in on the Royals while the line still rising, so I'm able to get better odds, adding 2 additional units on them (3 units total).

KANSAS CITY +135 ML // 2 units to win 2.70

[hotcross]

April 12 results:

-3.00 KANSAS CITY +125/+135 ML ----> score 7-1 home loss vs LAA
+1.00 OVER 8.5 -106 DET@CLE ----> score 9-3 CLE home win vs DET
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April 12 = -2.00 units (W/L = 1-1)

OVERALL THREAD = +2.29 units (W/L = 16-16-1 = .500 pct)
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Counting the KC game as one pick for 3 units loss, since it was the moneyline, not two separate types of picks.

[hotcross]

Saturday April 14

TAMPA BAY -0.5 +100 first five inn. // 3 units to win 3

OVER 7 -117 PHI@TB // 1.17 units to win 1

game about to start. Still examining the other games.....

[hotcross]

Saturday April 14 - adding ::

KANSAS CITY +147 ML // 2 units to win 2.94

UNDER 8.5 +102 OAK@SEA // 1 unit to win 1.02

[hotcross]

Saturday April 14 - adding ::

OVER 8.5 -105 SF@SD // 4.20 units to win 4

Pitching matchup Derek Holland at Clayton Richard (both lefty)

line makes no sense here. Two pretty bad hitting teams, SF has been ice cold in recent games, and the offer is 8.5 runs at Petco. These starting pitchers in particular can have a good game just as easy as be terrible.

[hotcross]

at the present time, they are literally playing the game in the snow at KC

MLB seriously needs to figure out how to not be starting the season this early in the calendar year

[2daBank]

at the present time, they are literally playing the game in the snow at KC

MLB seriously needs to figure out how to not be starting the season this early in the calendar year

Or they need to stop building new stadiums that don't come w retractable roofs cause shit gets nasty in playoffs lot of places too!! Hate trying to cap these shit weather games and there a whole freaking lot of them last few years!!

[hotcross]

good point. Was thinking the alternative is to shorten the season. I believe 50 years ago the season started like 3rd week of April. But like you said, to avoid bad weather in late-October they'd have to shorten the number of regular season games....which I have heard that idea tossed around but didn't seem to be much in favor of it.

The retractable roofs would be a good solution, but you have parks like Wrigley and Fenway for example, which might not ever be replaced. And both happen to be in bad weather areas.

[2daBank]

Yea I hear ya, I understand places like that where they simply not gonna replace, but like twinks for instance building a new stadium and not putting a retractable on it was behind fukkin stupid, in that crappy climate?? If they ever go deep into the postseason they gonna have serious issues then too!! They will never shorten the season even tho I agree it too stinking long! I'm pretty much burnt out by all star beak myself then pick back up following when playoffs get close.

[hotcross]

went 2-3 W/L yesterday for -1 unit

Sunday April 15

UNDER 8.5 -120 OAK@SEA // 1.20 units to win 1

[hotcross]

April 14 & 15 results:

+1.00 OVER 7 -117 PHI@TB ----> score 9-4 PHI road win (Arrieta - R at Archer - R)
-3.00 TAMPA BAY -0.5 +100 first five innings ----> score 9-2 PHI lead end 5th
-1.00 UNDER 8.5 +102 OAK@SEA ----> score 10-8 OAK road loss
-2.00 KANSAS CITY +147 ML ----> score 5-3 home loss vs LAA
+4.00 OVER 8.5 -105 SF@SD ----> score 5-4 SD home win (Derek Holland -L at Clayton Richard - L)
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+1.00 UNDER 8.5 -120 OAK@SEA ----> score 2-1 OAK road win (Manaea - L at Felix Hernandez - R)
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April 14 & 15 = +0 units (W/L = 3-3)

OVERALL THREAD = +2.29 units (W/L = 19-19-1 = .500 pct)
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Playing a bit too much volume so far, but helps me to get a feel for the season. Also been distracted by the transition of the Hockey season into the start of the playoffs.