Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

[hotcross]

got brutalized this year in MLB

will tally up final record later today

I said wouldn't play anymore, but I really love a total for today. I must be stubborn, but here goes:

Sunday Sep.16

UNDER 8 -125 OAK@TB // 2.50 units to win 2

[hotcross]

you gotta be kidding me. 5-0 Tampa leads top 9th, literally walks the bases loaded for grand slam to Khris Davis.

serves me right

[hotcross]

Sept.3 thru 16th results:

--------Mon. Sept.3--------
+4.00 PITTSBURGH -135 ML ---> score 5-1 home win vs CIN
-2.00 NY YANKEES +115 ML ---> score 6-3 road loss at OAK
-2.00 NY YANKEES +110 first five inn. ML ---> score 6-3 OAK lead end 5th
+3.05 NY METS +122 ML ---> score 4-2 road win at LAD
-2.50 ARIZONA -1.5 -125 runline ---> score 6-2 home loss vs SD
+2.00 OVER 10 -110 SF@COL ---> score 9-8 COL home win vs SF
-4.40 UNDER 8 -110 NYY@OAK ---> score 6-3 NYY road loss at OAK
-2.00 UNDER 8.5 +105 BALT@SEA ---> score 2-1 BALT road loss at SEA
--------Tue. Sept.4----------
+2.00 UNDER 8.5 -105 TB@TOR ---> score 4-0 TB road win at TOR
-1.00 TORONTO +112 ML
-4.80 UNDER 8.5 -120 CIN@PITT ---> score 7-3 CIN road loss at PITT
-4.20 UNDER 8.5 -105 KC@CLE ---> score 9-3 KC road loss at CLE
+5.00 OVER 9 -115 CHC@MILW ---> score 11-1 MILW home win vs CHC
-3.21 LA ANGELS -107 ML ---> score 4-2 road loss at TEX
-3.60 UNDER 4 -120 MINN@HOU first five inn. ---> score 4-1 HOU lead end 5th (final 5-2 HOU home win)
-3.15 OVER 10 -105 SF@COL ---> score 6-2 SF road loss at COL
+3.00 UNDER 8 -105 NYY@OAK ---> score 5-1 NYY road win at OAK
+3.00 SEATTLE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4.5 -120 ---> score 5-3 BALT road win at SEA
--------Wed. Sept.5----------
-4.20 WASHINGTON -105 ML ---> score 7-6 home loss vs STL
-3.30 UNDER 3.5 -110 NYM@LAD first five inn. ---> score 5-2 NYM lead end 5th (final 7-3 NYM road win)
--------Thurs. Sept.6----------
-3.26 ARIZONA -163 ML ---> score 7-6 home loss vs ATL (extra innings 10^th)
-4.00 ARIZONA -1.5 -125 runline
--------Fri. Sept.7----------
-2.00 SERIES WIN COLORADO +145 ---> LAD won game 1 Friday and game 3 Sunday
-2.10 CHW WHITE SOX first five inn. ML ---> score 4-2 LAA lead end 5th (final 5-2 LAA road win)
-2.00 COLORADO +137 ML ---> score 4-2 home loss vs LAD
--------Sat. Sept.8----------
-5.00 UNDER 5 -115 LAA@CHW first five inn. ---> score 6-3 LAA lead end 5th (final 12-3 LAA road win)
--------Sun. Sept.16----------
-2.50 UNDER 8 -125 OAK@TB ---> score 5-4 OAK road loss at TB
------------------------------------
Sept.3 thru 16th = -39.17 units (W/L = 7-20 = .259 pct)


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OVERALL THREAD = -95.69 units (W/L = 153-189-14 = .447 pct)
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Record = -36 picks under .500 for the season

For comparison purposes, assuming -110 odds, that woulda resulted in a net loss of -39.60 units if flat betting 1 unit. Obviously it was much worse because I vary the units risked for each play, and couldn't make up the difference this year.

Don't understand how I can get on such cold streaks like the sea of red shown in the last month. I mean, flipping a coin would result in a better than .259 winning percent during that last stretch of 27 picks.

Will re-evaluate for next year in MLB. Turning my focus now to NHL hockey, and some NFL football.

[Itsamle]

anything today hotcross?

[hotcross]

no man, cannot win, gotta give up on MLB this year

maybe this just isn't my sport anymore

the frustrating part is I see winners everyday I didn't pick

I'd say there is some luck involved for MLB, and sometimes I got unlucky. Not the majority of the time, but without luck on my side it's been just brutal.

I'll have an NHL thread for hockey, and my NFL season thread is already up and running.

Thanks for following, but no more fades here.

[hotcross]

Sunday Oct.7 - NLDS Game 3 - Dodgers at Braves

ATLANTA +153 ML // 4 units to win 6.12

Might be wrong on this, sheesh... Braves haven't even scored a run yet in the series, but wager says the Braves don't get swept at home today. Think we see at least another game in this series.

[hotcross]

I haven't been wagering on the playoffs, except the Atlanta pick game 3, it won. I've been watching the games.

Monday Oct.15 - NLCS Game 3 - Brewers at Dodgers

LOS ANGELES -0.5 -118 first five innings // 3 units to win 2.54

Like the starting pitcher matchup in favor of the Dodgers tonight. Jhoulys Chacin at Walker Buehler

[hotcross]

lost that Game 3 pick

Friday Oct.19 - NLCS Game 6 - Dodgers at Brewers

MILWAUKEE +104 ML // 3 units to win 3.12

Taking the home team to force a game 7

[hotcross]

won that last game 6 pick, so my spot bets for the playoffs still up more than 6 units. Gonna fire most of that here:

Wed. Oct.24 - World Series game 2 - LA Dodgers at Boston Red Sox

LOS ANGELES +130 ML // 3 units to win 3.90

SERIES WINNER: LOS ANGELES +240 // 1.50 units to win 3.60

Explanation: do I think the Dodgers are a great bet to win the series? - No, but they ain't dead yet either. I have them definitely winning game 3, their first game as the home team. So if they win tonight in game 2, and my prediction for game 3 is correct, then this is the best series price we will see for the Dodgers. I will then be looking to hedge out and lock in some profit of the series, if this comes true with games 2 and 3 wins by the Dodgers.

[hotcross]

one bad 5th inning was the difference. Dodgers led 2-1 score, Ryu had 2 outs, nobody on base, then he and Madson walk the bases loaded, walk in one run, then give up a 2-run double to JD Martinez, to lose 4-2. Dodgers offense was inept, only 3 hits in the game vs. 8 hits for Boston.

[hotcross]

Jumped the gun on that Game 2 pick. I said Dodgers win game 3 no matter what, then proceeded to pick them in Game 2. Dodgers offense was so weak in that game that I lost faith in them winning Game 3 tonight.

Well I'm waiting to see if the moneyline drops before gametime.

[hotcross]

hmm...didn't bet on Game 3, the odds kept getting higher for Dodgers and closed around -175.
Dodgers did win it, only took 18 innings.

Then they were in a position to win last night game 4 which woulda evened-up the series, but some really bad pitching decisions in terms of taking the starter out of the game, then not bringing in the right relievers, saw Boston overcome a late-inning 4-0 deficit to win the game by a final score of 9-6.

I think they force a game 6 by winning tonight. Or perhaps another way to say it would be Boston won't mind one more game at home.

Sunday Oct.28 - World Series game 5 - Boston Red Sox at LA Dodgers

LOS ANGELES -138 ML // 4.14 units to win 3

Starting pitchers David Price at Clayton Kershaw