Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

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Wed. July 25

OVER 4.5 -115 ARIZ@CHC first five innings // 2.30 units to win 2

Robbie Ray at John Lester. I like the starting pitchers to give up some runs on a warm day game in Chicago

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adding ::

WASHINGTON +120 ML // 3.50 units to win 4.20

At face value with Tanner Roark starting today for Washington, it's not surprising they are the road underdog today. But after Milwaukee narrowly won last night 5-4 score, they are just 3-7 W/L in their last 10 games. The Brewers overall record is better than the Nats, but I believe Washington will be turning things up a notch. They have an interesting deep looking lineup today with Murphy batting sixth and Trea Turner seventh.

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split those picks yesterday but won the bigger Washington ML

My totals are bad, I'm playing this one tonight for a unit just based on the line, and don't like much else on the remaining card.

Thursday July 26

UNDER 8.5 -115 TB@BALT // 1.15 units to win 1

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won the 1 unit under yesterday

Fri. July 27

COLORADO -115 ML // 4.60 units to win 4

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Sunday July 29

TORONTO +111 ML // 4 units to win 4.44

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July 25 thru 29th results:

--------Wed. July 25----------
-2.30 OVER 4.5 -115 ARIZ@CHC first five inn. ---> score 1-0 CHC lead end 5th (final 2-1 ARIZ road loss at CHC)
+4.20 WASHINGTON +120 ML ---> score 7-3 road win at MILW
--------Thurs. July 26----------
+1.00 UNDER 8.5 -115 TB@BALT ---> score 4-3 TB road win at BALT
----------Fri. July 27-----------
+4.00 COLORADO -115 ML ---> score 3-1 home win vs OAK
----------Sun. July 29-----------
+4.44 TORONTO +111 ML ---> score 7-4 road win at CHW (scored 5 runs top 9th after Rodon exit)
------------------------------------
July 25 thru 29th = +11.34 units (W/L = 4-1 = .800 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -18.57 units (W/L = 101-108-7 = .483 pct)
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might have been my strongest week of the year

gotta stay focused going ahead

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Monday July 30

ARIZONA -0.5 -140 first five innings // 1.40 units to win 1

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won last night, got 2 picks so far tonight

Tuesday July 31

PITTSBURGH -112 ML // 1.12 units to win 1

UNDER 4.5 -115 CLE@MINN // 1.15 units to win 1
Trevor Bauer at Kyle Gibson

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the Under is for the first five innings, of course

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went 2 for 2 tonight, makes 7 in a row!

[darrell74]

Been a couple of days.
Have you spent your winnings, yet?
What did you buy bro?

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no sir, I'm still down -15 units on MLB this year, so just clawing back towards break-even.

Hockey was a good year, so it's funding this year in baseball and beyond.

I actually keep a separate bankroll for sports plays. Start with 100 units so I have enough ammunition to ride out any downswing. Last year when I joined the site, the same thing happened as the current year, went down over -30 units and then fight back. Maybe that should be a lesson to me to wait until late in the season to play MLB...but actually that's not even my problem....I have to be selective and not try to hit "iffy" type of picks, bad teams, also my Totals selections have performed badly across all sports - that has become clear as I have tracked my picks on this site in MLB, NFL, and NHL. The only sport I have shown a profit since joining SBR was in NHL +69 units thru end of the Stanley Cup.

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Thursday Aug. 2

NY YANKEES -103 ML // 3.09 units to win 3

OVER 9 +100 MIAMI@PHI // 1 unit to win 1

still checking some later games...

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adding ::

UNDER 11 -105 BALT@TEX // 2.10 units to win 2

BALTIMORE +128 ML // 1.25 units to win 1.60

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adding :: final pick

OVER 9 +180 SF@ARIZ *sell 1.5 runs // 2 units to win 3.60

[darrell74]

Is Tyler clippard seriously starting for the Toronto Blue Jays
I just jumped all over that Seattle Mariner run line if that's the case

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I guess they are going bullpen game style, ala Tampa Bay. Not sure what to make of that game.

[darrell74]

My guess was Felix let's up a few, Seattle gets a big inning and covers the run line

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winning streak ended with a real azz kicking on Thursday, took yesterday off.

Saturday Aug.4

LA DODGERS -142 ML // 2.84 units to win 2

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so the 7 in a row win streak got squashed by an 0-5-1 run

Monday Aug. 6

OVER 8.5 +100 PHI@ARIZ // 2.50 units to win 2.50

ARIZONA -123 ML // 1.23 units to win 1


still checking those 2 West coast late games....

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I'm going big on the last two games...

Monday Aug. 6 - adding ::

OVER 8.5 -105 DET@LAA // 5.25 units to win 5

SAN FRANCISCO +126 ML // 5 units to win 6.30

The SF home game vs the World Champs Houston just feels like a game the Giants will win, it's a risky pick from the perspective of the caliber of these two teams. But SF has been playing better, Houston has numerous injuries, playing a second series in a row in a National League park on the road (after just winning 2 of 3 from the Dodgers), and Charlie Morton is starting for the Astros tonight against the Giants' rookie Dereck Rodriguez. This is only a two-game series in SF, so I'm thinking the home team wins one game, if not both.

[hotcross]

I am losing this year every way possible. While at the same time, it seems like anytime I do win they are hard fought.

Top 9th Giants lead 1-0 score, Houston never did anything. SF "closer" Will Smith has no control, walks two men, gets two outs, but then gives up the 3-run homer to Marwin Gonzalez. Kinda surprised that Bochy didn't make a switch after the second walk. Well, it could also be said this was a bad pick because I already knew the Giants were not likely to score much off Morton...was hoping maybe they would touch-up the Houston bullpen....but it went completely opposite. Anyway, if a team is only going to score one run, it won't result in a win too often.

Meantime the Over 8.5 in Anaheim missed by a 6-2 score home team. A turning point was top 6th with the Tigers behind by 4-1 score, the Angels starter Tropeano exited the game without too high of a pitch count, not sure why. Tigers load the bases on walk, single, and a walk, then score once on another single, leaving bases loaded with nobody out. Nick Castellanos strikes out looking (third in the lineup for the Tigers), then the cleanup hitter Jeimer Candelario hits into the inning ending double-play. Repeat, bases loaded nobody out, 3rd and 4th lineup men = end the inning. Later - Top 9th Castellanos leading off, strikes out again, and he's probably the Tiger's best hitter at this point. Tigers had almost zero offense in the previous series at Oakland (scored 0, next game scored 1, last game shutout again)...so perhaps I should not be going against the trend...but I don't think I was alone tonight thinking they might wake up a bit against Tropeano and the Angels.

Phillies at Arizona was a bad pick, bad read by me. 2-0 score to the bottom of the 9th and Arizona gets a solo-shot to get on the board then a double, followed by a single to tie the game and send it to extra innings tied 2-2. Game still going now, the D-Backs might win, but that Over isn't likely to come in.

I obviously have not been able to make the change adjustments to keep up with the times. Both last year and this year. Methods which worked for me in the past, are not anymore. In short, it seems like the talent of about 10 teams in the entire league are simply imbalanced. It would be a lot easier to just play the top teams every game, maybe try to time-out if any of them are running cold. Obviously I'm frustrated and disappointed with the results. Struggling too much with my style of play which just isn't working.

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will update the record after this Sunday. Trying to break these losing streak with these tonight:

Thursday Aug. 9

OVER 11 -105 LAD@COL // 2.10 units to win 2

COLORADO +120 ML // 5 units to win 6

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adding ::

SAN FRANCISCO -143 ML // 5 units to win 3.50

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1-2 W/L yesterday cost me 8 units down.

Friday Aug.10

UNDER 8.5 +100 TEX@NYY // 2 units to win 2

DETROIT -103 ML // 2.06 units to win 2

CINCINNATI +110 first five innings moneyline // 2 units to win 2.20

CHW WHITE SOX +115 first five innings moneyline // 2 units to win 2.30


will be adding a couple more plays, all 2 units tonight....

[hotcross]

UNDER 9 -136 MILW@ATL *buy 0.5 run // 2.72 units to win 2

I don't know why the public Consensus would be on the Over 8.5 here, maybe leary of Kevin Gausman starting for the Braves at home. I think this should be very low scoring, but buying the 0.5 run to protect the 9 total.

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adding ::

CHW WHITE SOX +137 ML (full game) // 2 units to win 2.74

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OVER 9.5 -110 STL@KC // 2.20 units to win 2

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looks like will be down a couple more units so far, White Sox still 0-0 tied with Cleveland late into the game. Last play for one of the late games:

LA ANGELS +112 ML // 2 units to win 2.24

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totals picked couldn't be more wrong tonight...two of the games involved big blowout wins where one team didn't score, but the winning team put up huge runs. Maybe I need to take a look at Team Totals in the future.

Down 2.18 units with the Angels pick pending

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Angels won so I went 3-3-2 W/L/D on the day and didn't lose for a change.

The 3 wins were sides, and the 2 Draws were sides but first five innings - both those won full game.

3 losses were Totals picks.

However, I chickened out on following-thru with the Colorado and San Francisco picks which lost yesterday. That might cost me yet again, as Colorado already won tonight and SF had a big lead but now the bullpen going crazy again, that game is still going. I've talked before here about how I should be playing the losing picks the next night follow-up.

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Sat. Aug.11

UNDER 8 +105 SEA@HOU // 2.10 units to win 2

why am I taking another Total? and going against Public Consensus again? rhetorical question, not going to attempt to really answer. Pitching matchup is Wade LeBlanc at Charlie Morton, homeplate ump Joe West. It looks at face value that Houston should hammer LeBlanc and tally their first win in the series, with Seattle stealing the last two games. I started to make a case Seattle wins, which they might. But I like the Under better, and with the +105 odds, decided on making this a pick.

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MILWAUKEE +100 ML // 2 units to win 2

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typo on the Under 8, did get the +105 odds so it shoulda read 2 units to win 2.10

Posting updated record now, might not have time to pick anything this Sunday.

July 30 thru Aug 11th results:

--------Mon. July 30----------
+1.00 ARIZONA -0.5 -140 first five inn. ---> score 4-3 ARIZ lead end 5th (final 9-5 TEX road win at ARIZ)
--------Tue. July 31----------
+1.00 PITTSBURGH -112 ML ---> score 5-4 home win vs CHC
+1.00 UNDER 4.5 -115 CLE@MINN first five inn. ---> score 3-1 CLE lead end 5th (final 6-2 CLE road win at MINN)
--------Thurs. Aug 2----------
-3.09 NY YANKEES -103 ML ---> score 15-7 road loss at BOS
-1.00 OVER 9 +100 MIAMI@PHI ---> score 5-2 MIAMI road loss at PHI
-2.10 UNDER 11 -105 BALT@TEX ---> score 17-8 BALT road loss at TEX
-1.25 BALTIMORE +128 ML
+0 push OVER 9 +180 SF@ARIZ *sell 1.5 runs ---> score 8-1 SF road win at ARIZ

----------Sat. Aug 4-----------
-2.84 LA DODGERS -142 ML ---> score 14-0 home loss vs HOU
----------Mon. Aug 6-----------
-2.50 OVER 8.5 +100 PHI@ARIZ ---> score 3-2 PHI road loss at ARIZ (extra innings 14^th)
+1.00 ARIZONA -123 ML
-5.25 OVER 8.5 -105 DET@LAA ---> score 6-2 DET road loss at LAA
-5.00 SAN FRANCISCO +126 ML ---> score 3-1 home loss vs HOU
--------Thurs. Aug 9----------
+2.00 OVER 11 -105 LAD@COL ---> score 8-5 LAD road win at COL
-5.00 COLORADO +120 ML
-5.00 SAN FRANCISCO -143 ML ---> score 10-5 home loss vs PITT
-------Fri. Aug 10-----------
-2.00 UNDER 8.5 +100 TEX@NYY ---> score 12-7 NYY home loss vs TEX
+2.00 DETROIT -103 ML ---> score 5-3 home win vs MINN
+0 push CINCINNATI +110 first five inn. ML ---> score 0-0 tie end 5th (final 3-0 home win vs ARIZ)
+0 push CHW WHITE SOX +115 first five inn. ML ---> score 0-0 tie end 5th
-2.72 UNDER 9 -136 MILW@ATL *buy 0.5 runs ---> score 10-1 MILW road loss at ATL
+2.74 CHW WHITE SOX +137 ML (full game) ---> score 1-0 home win vs CLE
-2.20 OVER 9.5 -110 STL@KC ---> score 7-0 KC home loss vs STL
+2.24 LA ANGELS +112 ML ---> score 4-3 home win vs OAK
----------Sat. Aug 11-----------
+2.10 UNDER 8 +105 SEA@HOU ---> score 3-2 SEA road win at HOU
+2.00 MILWAUKEE +100 ML ---> score 4-2 road win at ATL
------------------------------------
July 30 thru Aug 11th = -22.87 units (W/L = 10-13-3 = .434 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -41.44 units (W/L = 111-121-10 = .478 pct)
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up to date now

major slide, losing the big unit plays following the win streak two weeks ago....second time now that happened....
I'm trying to press the risk and win bigger, but the game results did not cooperate, in fact way off with some of those picks. It seems there is a mental defect where I've lost focus at those moments.

The overall percentage is not that bad, just 10-games under .500

[hotcross]

Sunday Night Aug.12

CHICAGO CUBS +126 // 4 units to win 5.04

I have a ton of reasons for this pick, so although going against Max Scherzer might not seem brilliant, the amount of reasons are swaying me to risk a bit more on the game.

Scherzer allowed exactly 4 hits and 1 homerun in each of his past two games. Following this trend, he will give up at least one if not two Homers tonight. Also, going back as far as June 10 he only goes 6 or 7 innings of work, except one outing against the weak hitting Marlins where he went 8 innings. That is the biggest reason for picking the Cubs tonight...Nationals bullpen is suffering from injuries and could easily see them blowing the game late.

Hamels pitching for the Cubs got wins in both his last two starts, giving up just one run in 11 innings of work total.

Alan Porter is the homeplate ump and he favors the home team looking at his prior record.

Anthony Rendon has the Nationals highest batting average on the season, and he is not playing tonight, being replaced by Mark Reynolds who does not appear to be an offensive threat.

There are numerous other general trends that favor the Home team and the Over 7.5 in this game. As for the Over I think that could be very tight and if it goes over it would barely go.