Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 06/09/09 (Write Up)
Pick 1: Cincinnati Reds -111 over Washington Nationals
Why they keep giving Johnny Cueto such favorable lines is beyond me. The guy has done nothing but pitch well for the Reds and give them a chance to win just about every time he takes the mound. The Reds are 7-4 on the moneyline in his starts.
Meanwhile, Jordan Zimmermann continues to get overvalued. While I can appreciate his strikeout totals and his raw talent, he is still a young pitcher prone to making mistakes. And are Washington bettors really willing to ignore the fact that the Nationals don't have a single reliable arm in the bullpen? Believe it or not there is a reason why this team is 15-40; despite their offensive potential they can not get outs late in games. So if Zimmermann has one of his 5+ run days, the Reds likely win. If he has one of his sharper 2 run type of days, the Nationals still have to try to hang on for dear life.
The Nationals are 3-6 with Zimmermann on the mound this season, and 1-6 in his last seven starts. Fading this bullpen alone is worth the -111 to -120 its been at all day; getting Cueto as well is just an added bonus.
Pick 2: Chicago Cubs -122 over Houston Astros
Ted Lilly has dominated the Astros over the course of his career, and has also had a strong season so far in 2009. Up against a below-average pitcher in Brian Moehler, I'll reluctantly trust the Cubs bats to get a few runs for Lilly tonight and pick up the win.
Pick 3: San Francisco -114 over Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick 4: San Francisco @ Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (-116)
Here is a game that I just can't figure out. When I saw San Francisco at only -114, I thought it must be due to the fact that Billy Buckner was getting a lot of respect after his dominating performance as a big dog in his last game out against the Dodgers. But then I saw the total at 9 runs, and that really made no sense to me. Are the bookies or the betting public expecting Cain to struggle tonight?
Cain is 7-1 with a dazzling 2.27 ERA on the season; but he's been even more impressive on the road, posting a 1.36 ERA in 5 road starts. He has given up one earned run or less in four straight starts, winning all four of them. The Giants have won the last six games he has started.
If the Giants lose, it really doesn't seem to me that it would be likely that Cain having a bad game would be the culprit. If anything, the dangerous young Buckner could potentially have another nice start against a feeble Giants offense.
It may be a trap, but I don't see Matt Cain having a bad game tonight. Therefore, he either picks up the win, or takes a hard luck loss if his offense gets him no run support. Or, best case scenario for me, a low scoring win like his last four straight have been. Considering my luck you might as well parlay Arizona and the Over, but these two picks look gift-wrapped to me.
Good Luck!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am negative units on the season, as you can see in my signature and on my spreadsheet. While I do work really hard to cap these games and hope to finish the season in the green, don't want anyone tailing me thinking I'm better than I actually am. Hopefully if you choose to tail me its because you agree with my write-ups
.
Why they keep giving Johnny Cueto such favorable lines is beyond me. The guy has done nothing but pitch well for the Reds and give them a chance to win just about every time he takes the mound. The Reds are 7-4 on the moneyline in his starts.
Meanwhile, Jordan Zimmermann continues to get overvalued. While I can appreciate his strikeout totals and his raw talent, he is still a young pitcher prone to making mistakes. And are Washington bettors really willing to ignore the fact that the Nationals don't have a single reliable arm in the bullpen? Believe it or not there is a reason why this team is 15-40; despite their offensive potential they can not get outs late in games. So if Zimmermann has one of his 5+ run days, the Reds likely win. If he has one of his sharper 2 run type of days, the Nationals still have to try to hang on for dear life.
The Nationals are 3-6 with Zimmermann on the mound this season, and 1-6 in his last seven starts. Fading this bullpen alone is worth the -111 to -120 its been at all day; getting Cueto as well is just an added bonus.
Pick 2: Chicago Cubs -122 over Houston Astros
Ted Lilly has dominated the Astros over the course of his career, and has also had a strong season so far in 2009. Up against a below-average pitcher in Brian Moehler, I'll reluctantly trust the Cubs bats to get a few runs for Lilly tonight and pick up the win.
Pick 3: San Francisco -114 over Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick 4: San Francisco @ Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (-116)
Here is a game that I just can't figure out. When I saw San Francisco at only -114, I thought it must be due to the fact that Billy Buckner was getting a lot of respect after his dominating performance as a big dog in his last game out against the Dodgers. But then I saw the total at 9 runs, and that really made no sense to me. Are the bookies or the betting public expecting Cain to struggle tonight?
Cain is 7-1 with a dazzling 2.27 ERA on the season; but he's been even more impressive on the road, posting a 1.36 ERA in 5 road starts. He has given up one earned run or less in four straight starts, winning all four of them. The Giants have won the last six games he has started.
If the Giants lose, it really doesn't seem to me that it would be likely that Cain having a bad game would be the culprit. If anything, the dangerous young Buckner could potentially have another nice start against a feeble Giants offense.
It may be a trap, but I don't see Matt Cain having a bad game tonight. Therefore, he either picks up the win, or takes a hard luck loss if his offense gets him no run support. Or, best case scenario for me, a low scoring win like his last four straight have been. Considering my luck you might as well parlay Arizona and the Over, but these two picks look gift-wrapped to me.
Good Luck!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am negative units on the season, as you can see in my signature and on my spreadsheet. While I do work really hard to cap these games and hope to finish the season in the green, don't want anyone tailing me thinking I'm better than I actually am. Hopefully if you choose to tail me its because you agree with my write-ups
.