MLB overnight plum: 6-4

[Justin7]

Colorado (Hammel/Rodridguez) +156.

At 20-31, Colorado looks soft. In 1-run games though, they're 3-10. like turnovers, this makes an otherwise average team look very bad.

On the year, Colorado has 241 runs scored, 262 allowed (both high because of their home field). Houston has 212 runs scored, 244 allowed. Colorado's ratio of runs scored to runs allowed is about 6% better.

What about this matchup? Starting pitching: close to the same; slight edge to Colorado. I like the Colorado bats better, and Colorado's bullpen looks a tad better.

Why is Colorado such a big dog? This number is off, and I'll put them on my lock-board.

[jellobiafra]

You give a slight edge to Jason Hammel over Wandy Rodriguez (in HOU)?


Alright man. Your track record speaks for itself, but .....damn.

[The HG]

Colorado (Hammel/Rodridguez) +156.

At 20-31, Colorado looks soft. In 1-run games though, they're 3-10. like turnovers, this makes an otherwise average team look very bad.

On the year, Colorado has 241 runs scored, 262 allowed (both high because of their home field). Houston has 212 runs scored, 244 allowed. Colorado's ratio of runs scored to runs allowed is about 6% better.

What about this matchup? Starting pitching: close to the same; slight edge to Colorado. I like the Colorado bats better, and Colorado's bullpen looks a tad better.

Why is Colorado such a big dog? This number is off, and I'll put them on my lock-board.

Are you rating Hammel as slightly better than Rodriguez?

[Justin7]

You give a slight edge to Jason Hammel over Wandy Rodriguez (in HOU)?

I have no clue who either of these randomizers are. They are just numerical sequences. HFA helps Hou obviously, but too many things are lined up to inflate Houston, and my projections make this game a lot closer to 50/50 (vs the 39% breakeven reflected by +156).

[The HG]

I have no clue who either of these randomizers are. They are just numerical sequences. HFA helps Hou obviously, but too many things are lined up to inflate Houston, and my projections make this game a lot closer to 50/50 (vs the 39% breakeven reflected by +156).

Hammel is the randomizer who is the starting pitcher for Colorado, Rodriguez is the randomizer who is starting for Houston. Are you rating the Colorado randomizer as slightly less likely to give up runs than the Houston randomizer?

[jellobiafra]

I have no clue who either of these randomizers are. They are just numerical sequences. HFA helps Hou obviously, but too many things are lined up to inflate Houston, and my projections make this game a lot closer to 50/50 (vs the 39% breakeven reflected by +156).

Serious question, do you not follow the sport at all? Is it simply a series of mathematical/statistical equations for you?

[The HG]

Serious question, do you not follow the sport at all? Is it simply a series of mathematical/statistical equations for you?

Yes, but that doesn't mean you can't ask him questions about it, it just means that you have to use terms that he is familiar with. If you use player names it will confuse him, he might not even realize you are asking a question about sports. You have to use terms he works with, such as "Houston pitcher randomizer #43"

[Justin7]

On a neutral field in a matchup of these two teams, I think Hammel will allow fewer runs. In Houston, I might give a slight edge to Rodriguez.

I don't follow the sport that closely. I have to check rosters every day, obviously. I also watch an occasional game for live betting, since the results are a few seconds faster than on sportsline.com if you watch it live.

[jellobiafra]

Yes, but that doesn't mean you can't ask him questions about it, it just means that you have to use terms that he is familiar with. If you use player names it will confuse him, he might not even realize you are asking a question about sports. You have to use terms he works with, such as "Houston pitcher randomizer #43"

OK. Well I'm genuinely curious as to how COL pitcher randomizer #46 is given a slight edge over HOU pitcher randomizer #51. HOU pitcher #51 completely dominates COL pitcher #46 in every statistical category that could possible matter. HOU pitcher #51's ERA is less than half the COL pitcher #46's. HOU pitcher's WHIP is almost half a runner less per inning. HOU pitcher has given up 6 less runs in 26 more innings. I could go on, but I'm getting tired of writing this out as HOU pitcher #51 instead of talking about baseball players....

[pavyracer]

Does the model take into account innings pitched? Cause one pitcher has almost thrown twice as many innings as the other one.

[Justin7]

Does the model take into account innings pitched? Cause one pitcher has almost thrown twice as many innings as the other one.

Yes, and it also projects how many pitchers each starter is likely to go. Rodriguez is likely to pitch longer, and Colorado likely to rely more on its bullpen. Rodriguez isn't likely to keep pitching at a 2.3 ERA.

[jellobiafra]

Justin, just to clarify.... I'm not arguing with the pick at all. I think you're probably right on in terms of the line in relation to reality. I'm just honestly curious as to how you can rate the pitching matchup like you did. If that is what your numbers are telling you, I'm not trying to insinuate that I know more than your formulas. It's just a very surprising conclusion you've come to in that regard.

BOL!

[Justin7]

Justin, just to clarify.... I'm not arguing with the pick at all. I think you're probably right on in terms of the line in relation to reality. I'm just honestly curious as to how you can rate the pitching matchup like you did. If that is what your numbers are telling you, I'm not trying to insinuate that I know more than your formulas. It's just a very surprising conclusion you've come to in that regard.

BOL!

This is a very dangerous time of year. Pitchers have just enough starts that we think we can get a grip on them. We stop paying attention to previous years, which are still better estimators than YTD stats.

If a pitcher is doing a lot better than he has historically, I look to fade him. If they are doing worse, I look to back them.

It's obviously not certain, but it's a good way to find value in any small sport (and overnights in any sport qualify as small).

[jellobiafra]

This is a very dangerous time of year. Pitchers have just enough starts that we think we can get a grip on them. We stop paying attention to previous years, which are still better estimators than YTD stats.

If a pitcher is doing a lot better than he has historically, I look to fade him. If they are doing worse, I look to back them.

It's obviously not certain, but it's a good way to find value in any small sport (and overnights in any sport qualify as small).

Thanks. I was just considering that actually. I recall having the same disagreement with you the other day over putting BOS on the lock board with an underperforming Matsuzaka pitching. I figured your model must be weighted for past year's performances.

I think in the case of younger players who haven't quite lived up to early expectations yet in their career, they could just be "putting it together" at this point. I think Rodriguez might fall into that category of player.

Anyway, good luck.

[BobHarvey]

Justin,

I was curious if you had a feeling either way on the White Sox and A's game tonight? Chicago is a medium range favorite but would appear to have a substantial edge. Any thoughts?

[Justin7]

I made CHW a -122 favorite, so no play. I did load up again on over 9 though. As in yesterday's match, the market told me to go to hell on the total.

I'd link in my SBR spreadsheet, but I'm not smart enough.

[onthewhat]

I made CHW a -122 favorite, so no play. I did load up again on over 9 though. As in yesterday's match, the market told me to go to hell on the total.

I'd link in my SBR spreadsheet, but I'm not smart enough.

[BobHarvey]

I made CHW a -122 favorite, so no play. I did load up again on over 9 though. As in yesterday's match, the market told me to go to hell on the total.

I'd link in my SBR spreadsheet, but I'm not smart enough.

Thanks!

[TheLock]

Serious question, do you not follow the sport at all? Is it simply a series of mathematical/statistical equations for you?

Pair of 5s couldn't name 3 guys on the Mets (insert any team here)

A very Contrarian play by Justin. I like. GL

[Dexter]

I have no clue who either of these randomizers are. They are just numerical sequences. HFA helps Hou obviously, but too many things are lined up to inflate Houston, and my projections make this game a lot closer to 50/50 (vs the 39% breakeven reflected by +156).

haha - big baseball fan ayy justin7?!

wanna join my fantasy league?

[LT Profits]

Justin,

There is nothing random about Rodriquez, he may have the biggest home/away differential of any pitcher I have ever seen. And the vast difference is consistent every year, so I would give him the BIG edge here.

That said, I agree Colroado has slight edges on offense and in the pen.

[Justin7]

Justin,

There is nothing random about Rodriquez, he may have the biggest home/away differential of any pitcher I have ever seen. And the vast difference is consistent every year, so I would give him the BIG edge here.

That said, I agree Colroado has slight edges on offense and in the pen.

Very interesting. I don't normally weigh the home/away splits.

Do you see this difference in many other pitchers?

[LT Profits]

Yes, but not as extreme as Wandy.

2007

2008

2009

Career

[suicidekings]

Very interesting. I don't normally weigh the home/away splits.

Do you see this difference in many other pitchers?

There are definitely some key home/away differentials for some pitchers. I would imagine park factors would account for some of these (ie: Jason Marquis pitches much better away from COL), but not all.

[ZetaPsi808]

so justin7, do u still like your colorado pick or should i wait before betting it

[Justin7]

so justin7, do u still like your colorado pick or should i wait before betting it

I got it at +156. Seeing that +150 is now the best, of course I like +156.

I don't know enough about home/away splits to tell you what I think. My best guess is that there is still value at +150, and if I had to make a choice: Col +150 or Hou -151, I'd still take Colorado. You don't have this problem. You can wait until there's a clearer play with no opposition.

[jellobiafra]

I think there's definitely good value in this pick, fwiw. I never doubted that. It was just the pitching thing the peaked my interest. I'm genuinely curious in how you figure these things Justin because your modeling does show impressive results.

[jellobiafra]

Stay sharp Justin.

[Pecos Bill]

7-1 currently, good job justin.

[Justin7]

7-1 currently, good job justin.

Thanks, but...

The market closed at Col +166 at Matchbook. I would have been better off waiting until post to play it.

Win, lose, whatever. My call on Colorado as an overnight play is clearly wrong today.

[jellobiafra]

Maybe your only flaw was underestimating the power of the squares on this one, as you sampled through the responses in this thread (mostly mine).

Either at +156 or +166, it's a nice easy cover on a sizeable dog. If you can't at least enjoy that a little, then what's the point?

[jellobiafra]

Hey Justin, while we're at it do you have an opinion on the NYM +115 tomorrow. I can't for the life of me figure out the reasoning behind that line.


EDIT:

Never mind. Covers had the Mets starting Maine, but it is Redding. That makes a lot more sense.

[Justin7]

Maybe your only flaw was underestimating the power of the squares on this one, as you sampled through the responses in this thread (mostly mine).

Either at +156 or +166, it's a nice easy cover on a sizeable dog. If you can't at least enjoy that a little, then what's the point?

The point is to make money. Playing the overnight at +156 was a chump play if I made a mistake. If an unexpected roster move caused the line move, I won't feel bad. I haven't done the post-mortem on this play yet, so I don't know.

Winning bets has very little to do with making money - those that focus on whether the recent coin flips were "heads" or "tails" get distracted in the short-term. Making the right plays is what matters. Pretend that play had a 40% chance of winning. Betting at the wrong time, if it was a preventable error, cost me 4% of my return on that bet. 4% blunders on major markets are horrendous, and will bankrupt you long-term.

If you aren't looking at your winners as closely as your losers, you'll go broke in this game.

[Panekkkk]

Hey Justin, while we're at it do you have an opinion on the NYM +115 tomorrow. I can't for the life of me figure out the reasoning behind that line.


EDIT:

Never mind. Covers had the Mets starting Maine, but it is Redding. That makes a lot more sense.

I wanna lay on the Mets but with Redding pitching and half the lineup out I just can't pull the trigger. But you'd think that after those pirate losses they will come back with a vengeance.

[pavyracer]

I trailed Justin on this one. He rarely misses his computer model picks. He is the antithesis of CrazyLou.