MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 6/13

»-Brewers +145 Sutton/Lynn
»-Brewers +114 Nelson/Gonzales
»-Orioles -115
»-Rays +134
»-Mariners +105

»-Reds/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Athletics/Marlins Over 9 -118
____________________________

Added Rays and Mariners.

Estrada has struggled vs the Rays and does give us some homers, which is not good vs the Rays, and Faria looks to be pretty good from his minor league numbers. The Rays are also close to being a system play, near 30%.
The Brewers game #1 plays still stands as it was a system play, still 0-0 in that one.
The Mariners have been pretty hot and Bergman is getting better off a shutout of the Red Sox and some nice recent starts. These two pitchers battled in a 2-1 pitchers duel earlier this year, but I don't expect a repeat of that and the Mariner bats are hotter. They also caught my attention a little when I was looking at my RRL chart.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 06-13-17, 03:05 PM

keep it coming. there's people out there. been following this site for years but never figured to become a member or voice myself. then i figured there's so many horrible cappers out there that are inconsistent, i better show my respects to the ones that work hard.

Originally posted by FUqer

Thanks! I would do the same as you, and that's what I hope people do, is just use my information and not follow my plays blindly, at least until I get some things figured out and start winning consistently.

It's nice to get some appreciation once in awhile, I don't get it all that much and besides my personal plays, I think I do some really good work at times. I dunno if people think I'm pretentious or cuz maybe I don't leave much else to be said. Oh well, not looking for attention or friends, just looking to get better and this thread helps me when I write some of the things out and easier to go back and reference some things.

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 6/13

»-Brewers +145 Suter/Lynn
»-Brewers +114 Nelson/Gonzales
»-Orioles -115
»-Rays +134
»-Mariners +105
»-Giants -115
»-Rockies +108
»-Mets +122
»-Padres +100
»-Phillies +225
»-Yankees -130

»-Reds/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Athletics/Marlins Over 9 -118
____________________________

More additions, I put in a lot of work today, so volume is really high, I hope it pays off with a big day, I'm long over due.

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 06:51 PM

Wednesday's Projections

SD (-129 56.3%) (9.4)
WAS (-162 61.8%) (8.7)
COL (-105 51.2%) (8.6)
NYM (-107 51.8%) (8.5)
STL (-122 55.0%) (8.3)
TOR (-127 55.9%) (8.7)
BAL (-107 51.7%) (8.7)
HOU (-131 56.7%) (9.4)
MIN (-138 58.0%) (9.6)
NYY (-114 53.2%) (7.7)
MIA (-132 56.9%) (8.9)
SF (-140 58.3%) (8.6)
BOS (-120 54.5%) (9.4)
ARI (-121 54.8%) (8.4)
CLE (-150 60.0%) (6.5)

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 08:40 PM

Thursday's Projections

@CLE (-117 53.9%) (7.5) Hill/Tomlin
@MIN (-142 58.7%) (8.3) Miranda/Berrios
BAL@ (-104 51.0%) (9.8) Tillman/Holmberg
BOS@ (-236 70.2%) (7.7) Sale/Pivetta
@DET (-162 61.8%) (8.9) Cobb/Verlander
WAS@ (-118 54.1%) (8.5) Gonzalez/Gsellman
@STL (-147 59.5%) (8.9) Davies/Wacha
@COL (-147 59.5%) (8.7) Moore/Hoffman
NYY@ (-128 56.1%) (8.1) Montgomery/Gray
@LAA (-123 55.2%) (9.6) Skoglund/Nolasco

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 04:07 AM

Tuesday's Results

W - »-Brewers +114
W - »-Rays +134
W - »-Padres +100
L - »-Brewers +145
L - »-Rockies +108
L - »-Mets +122
L - »-Mariners +105
L - »-Phillies +225
L - »-Giants -115
L - »-Yankees -130
L - »-Orioles -115
P - »-Reds/Padres Over 8 -108
P - »-Athletics/Marlins Over 9 -118

---------------------------
Yesterday = 3-8-2 = -5.12
___________________________
June = 29-44 for -13.76
S/U = 24-31 for -5.11
O/U = 5-8 for -3.47
R/L = 0-5 for -5.18
---------------
Dogs = 17-22 for -1.70
Favs = 7-9 for -3.41
----------------
Overs = 4-5 for -1.32
Unders = 1-3 for -2.15
___________________________

haha, can you believe I lost another 2 extra inning games, what is that 0-25 in them, it's crazy, just half of those would completely change my season. The Phillies and Yankees lost tonight and both had several chances to win it. That's a 4.55 unit swing.

I also had to settle for two pushes on my total plays and the Padres left some easy runs out there.

Now onto the stupid mistakes I can't seem to stop making even though I know better. I added 6 plays really late and had no business playing them and they went 1-5. I end up wasting the work I do trying to filter out the plays through the morning, by adding all the other ones I was on the fence about at the last minute. To put a stop to that shit, I'm putting a cap at 6 plays max a day, with the exceptions for system plays that might be activated based on a late line change or something, then I might have an extra play or two, but never again will there be 13 plays. If I can stick to that rule, today's lesson will be worth it in the long run. I'm starting to find some of my strengths and don't need to ruin it with bad discipline.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 04:13 AM

SDQL 6/14

ALL = Yesterday 8-7 (Total 282-228)
SU = Yesterday 2-3 (Total 159-118)
OU = Yesterday 6-4 (Total 123-110)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Pirates (55-20 +29.9% ROI)

H and tA(W)>=.45 and p:margin>=2 and tS(runs@team and season,N=6)=30 and po:BL=0 and 120>=line>=-195 and conference=o:conference and total<=10 and SG>1 and month>4 and 2008<=season

PLAY: The Padres, Pirates, White Sox (982-586 +11.9% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Rangers (268-247 +20.3% ROI)

AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2

FADE: The Mariners (48-134 -36.2% ROI)

team=Mariners and po:hits>=12 and AD

PLAY: The Twins (536-369 +10.7% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

PLAY: The Royals (67-61 +20.4% ROI)

o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2

PLAY: The Angels (149-156 +9.6% ROI)

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and (SG=1 or SG=3) and op:runs<=3 and H and rest<3 and line>=105 and month!=8 and 2006<=season and 10>=total>=6.5

------------

OU

OVER: The Pirates are 15-1-1 OU as a home dog when playing a team that has a better record since Jun 26, 2016.

team=Pirates and HD and WP < o:WP and date>=20160626

OVER: The Braves and Nationals are 17-4 OU their last 20 meetings.

team=Braves and o:team=Nationals and date>=20160414

OVER: The Braves are 69-38-3 OU since 8/11/16 for +21.7% ROI.

team=Braves and date>=20160811

OVER: The Braves are 18-5 OU off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead.

team = Braves and p

and p:BL > 0 and p:L and date >= 20160803

OVER: The Rangers are 12-1 OU in the last game of a series on the road after they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team = Rangers and LGS and A and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and date >= 20160505

UNDER: Mariners/Twins (37-21-3 +21.5% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 105-64-6 OU +18.1% ROI this season.
(Yankees, Rays, Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox, D-Backs, Orioles)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (109-77-15 +11.4% ROI)
(Rays, Dodgers, Royals, Tigers, Twins)

________________

SU

Pirates
Padres
White Sox
Rangers
Royals
Twins
Angels

OU

Rockies/Pirates Over
Braves/Nationals Over
Rangers/Astros Over
Rays/Blue Jays Over
Yankees/Angels Over
Brewers/Cardinals Over
Dodgers/Indians Over
Red Sox/Phillies Over
D-Backs/Tigers Over
Orioles/White Sox Over
Royals/Giants Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 04:48 AM

Wednesday Plays 6/14

»-Padres -1 +109
»-Rays +135
»-Rangers +144
__________________

I mentioned before about Chacin being a different pitcher at Home this season and he's going against Garrett who was pulled after I think an inning his last start due to a hand injury. He hasn't been very good when he is healthy in his rookie year so a hand issue is a red flag, I just hope he last more than a inning this time, so they can do some damage against him.

Blue Jay hitters are batting just .142 with a .577 OPS vs Odorizzi in 150 at bats, while the Rays hitters are batting .284 with a .897 OPS vs Liriano who has had some control issues since coming back off the DL.

The Rangers are on one of their streaks again and the Astros are on a mini vacation with a comfortable lead in the West. Cashner is starting for the Rangers and it seems he always gives up 6 runs in his team starts vs the Astros, but the Astros are starting a newbie who appears to be just a warm body for the day, so it's likely to be a high scoring game. The Rangers are are rolling and the Astros are reeling after losing their last 2 series. The Rangers also have a +20.3% ROI SDQL trend on their side and teams on 5 game winning streaks as a Road Dog are +5.6% ROI all-time and +20.5% ROI since 2015, with the Rangers themselves going 4-1 their last 5 in that spot. They are also a dog in a game with a total over 9.5, which is another good spot.

________________________________________ __________________________

I do like the Orioles, but it's awful hard to lay any juice on them right now.

I like the Mariners who have had success vs Santana who hasn't been that good at Home, but the SDQL trends scared me off, same with the Rockies.

I like the looks of the Athletics newbie starter, but Volquez hasn't been scored on in his last 2 games and the Marlins have been hot at Home. The Under may be the best option.

If the D-Backs are dogs, I will most likely play them.

A few team totals I like but prolly won't play are Padres TT Over, Nationals TT Over.

Not sure if I'll play any totals or not today, but I'm also interested in any Overs my model is projecting because it seems to favor Unders 75% of the time. They are Angels, Giants, Padres, Pirates Overs.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 05:42 AM

Marlins Home during the day.

19-6 (2.12, 76.0%)	avg line: -116.1 / 105.8	on / against: +$1,452 / -$1,528	ROI: +46.4% / -53.1%
17-8 (1.70, 68.0%)	avg line: 123.7 / -138.6	on / against: +$1,349 / -$1,572	ROI: +47.4% / -42.4%
10-14-1 (-1.02, 41.7%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$499 / +$315	ROI: -18.4% / +11.3%

Athletics Away during the day.

12-22 (-1.26, 35.3%)

avg line: 141.7 / -154.3

on / against: -$706 / +$584

ROI: -20.4% / +11.1%

15-18-1 (-0.41, 45.5%)

avg total: 8.7

over / under: -$485 / +$176

ROI: -12.9% / +4.7%

I'm out for the day, may be back around 4.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 6/14

»-Padres -1 +109
»-Rays +135
»-Rangers +144
»-D-Backs +111

__________________

Added D-Backs.

**CHIpicks** · 06-14-17, 02:26 PM

really appreciate your thread man.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by CHIpicks

really appreciate your thread man.

Thank you!

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 02:49 PM

I'm going to run some parlays to help cure my need for action and to help keep my daily plays at a minimum. They will be 6 teamers all to win 1 unit and risk will usually be 0.02 or 0.03, which translates to about between a $1.00 and a $1.50 for my unit size. Yes, I'm aware of the odds, but I see some tracking benefits and research benefits I can get from it, so I'll try it at least until I lose a unit on them.

-----------
Risk 0.03 to win 1

Orioles
Rockies
Padres
Cardinals
Nationals
D-Backs
____________

Risk 0.03 to win 1

Padres TT Over 4.5 -125
Astros TT Over 5 -125
Orioles TT Over 5 +100
Rockies TT Over 4.5 -115
Mariners TT Over 4.5 -140
Giants TT Over 4 -125
____________

Risk 0.02 to win 1

D-Backs/Tigers Under 10 -103
Dodgers/Indians Under 8 -110
Royals/Giants Over 7.5 -115
Rays/Blue Jays Over 8.5 -118
Brewers/Cardinals Under 9 -108
Braves/Nationals Under 9.5 -113
______________________________

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday's Projections

@CLE +116 (-117 53.9%) 9.5 (7.5) Hill/Tomlin
@MIN -116 (-142 58.7%) 9.5 (8.3) Miranda/Berrios
BAL@ -104 (-104 51.0%) 11 (9.8) Tillman/Holmberg
BOS@ -221 (-236 70.2%) 8.5 (7.7) Sale/Pivetta
@DET -149 (-162 61.8%) 9 (8.9) Cobb/Verlander
@NYM -116 (-120 54.5%) 8.5 (7.8) Gonzalez/Matz
@STL -142 (-147 59.5%) 9 (8.9) Davies/Wacha
@COL -146 (-147 59.5%) 11 (8.7) Moore/Hoffman
NYY@ -121 (-128 56.1%) 8.5 (8.1) Montgomery/Gray
@LAA -131 (-131 56.7%) 8.5 (9.6) Strahm/Nolasco

These are for tomorrow, I posted them early yesterday. I had to make two pitching changes for the Mets and Royals that are in red. My model is pretty accurate with a few exceptions from the usual suspects, Indians Under and I haven't took the time to make adjustments for Rockies and Cubs home games, so I usually just ignore them.

My formula is solid, I just need to finish updating my pitchers ratings, but I think after a month it's progressing good. The challenge now is weeding out the true value from the trap lines. If I played every game based on value, I don't think it would be good. I use this model as part of an overall system that's also a work in progress but improving nicely. Hopefully it will start translating soon into smarter decisions soon.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday's Projections

COL (-105 51.2%) (8.6)

Suspect line in Rockies/Pirates game. I had -105, but it was -120 until it just dropped to -105 all of a sudden.
Makes me think the books knew people would be on COL hard and got what they thought they could out of it and now it's at what it should be. I would guess that's what happened and not a money move on the Pirates. Makes me think Pirates here.

The Phillies line is suspect too, but hard to play on them.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 6/14

»-Padres -1 +109
»-Rays +135
»-Rangers +144
»-D-Backs +111
»-Pirates -101
»-Phillies FF +100
__________________

Added Pirates and Phillies FF.

**FUqer** · 06-14-17, 07:26 PM

Thursday Plays 6/15

»-Yankees -114
»-Mets -110

»-Nationals/Mets Under 8.5 -103
_____________________________

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 02:48 AM

Wednesday Plays 6/14

»-Padres -1 +109
»-Rays +135
»-Rangers +144
»-D-Backs +111
»-Pirates -101
»-Phillies FF +100
_________________________
Yesterday = 2-4 = -1.89
___________________________
Those two last hour adds cost me a winning day for the 2nd night in a row, enough of that shit from now on. I've been focusing on a million different things and I need to focus more on cutting out the stupid mistakes. I played the Pirates based on what I thought was shady line movement at the end when I was almost going to play the Rockies earlier in the day, mistake #1. Betting on the Phillies, mistake #2. Letting a so so trend scare me off the Mariners who I liked a lot, mistake #3. And I've been jumping on hot teams too late, it really has nothing to do with how hot they are, I just like that particular match-up and the way things have been going in baseball, up is down and down is up, teams are winning the unfavorable match-ups and losing the clear cut favorable ones.

__________________________
Parlay results

-----------
W - Orioles
W - Rockies
W - Padres
L - Cardinals
L - Nationals
W - D-Backs
____________
L - Padres TT Over 4.5 -125
W - Astros TT Over 5 -125
W - Orioles TT Over 5 +100
W - Rockies TT Over 4.5 -115
W - Mariners TT Over 4.5 -140
L - Giants TT Over 4 -125
____________
W - D-Backs/Tigers Under 10 -103
L - Dodgers/Indians Under 8 -110
W - Royals/Giants Over 7.5 -115
W - Rays/Blue Jays Over 8.5 -118
L - Brewers/Cardinals Under 9 -108
L - Braves/Nationals Under 9.5 -113
______________________________

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 02:52 AM

SDQL 6/15

ALL = Yesterday 11-6-1 (Total 293-234)
SU = Yesterday 3-4 (Total 162-122)
OU = Yesterday 8-2-1 (Total 131-112)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY - The Tigers are 17-2 SU as a home favorite in the first game of a series off a home game when playing a team that has a better record.

team = Tigers and FGS and H and F and p:H and WP < o:WP and date >= 20120619

------------

OU

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 111-65-6 OU +19.7% ROI this season.
(Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (112-79-15 +11.4% ROI)
(Rays, Dodgers, Royals, Twins, Nationals, Giants)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Tigers

OU

Yankees/Athletics Over
Dodgers/Indians Over
Mariners/Twins Over
Rays/Tigers Over
Nationals/Mets Over
Giants/Rockies Over
___________________________________

Late Additions:

PLAY: The Tigers are 14-0 SU & 10-0 RL since Jul 21, 2004 as a -140+ favorite with no rest in the first game of a series after they lost by one run last game.

team=Tigers and FGS and F and line<=-140 and rest=0 and p:margin=-1 and date>=20040721

UNDER: The Angels are 0-12-1 OU since Jun 22, 2016 vs a team that has won at least their last four games.

team=Angels and o:streak>=4 and date>=20160622

OVER: The Tigers are 10-0 OU since Sep 19, 2015 at home coming off a home game in which they had at least five more team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team=Tigers and H and p:H and po:TLOB + 5 <= p:TLOB and date>=20150919

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 02:54 AM

Friday's Total Projections

LAD (8.0)
MIL (9.7)
CLE (7.6)
WAS (8.1)
STL (8.4)
SEA (7.9)
PHI (8.9)
TOR (8.0)
HOU (8.1)
LAA (9.6)
NYY (8.1)
DET (9.2)
CHC (9.3)
MIA (8.8)

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 6/15

»-Yankees -114
»-Mariners +115
»-White Sox +101

_____________________________

Added Mariners and White Sox. Mets and the Under were canceled cuz Matz was replaced by Gsellman.

I like both pitchers in the Mariners game, but what made me play it is the horrible record for the Twins in Day games and at Home in general. One factor I am worried about is Miranda walking some guys because the Twins are very patient at the plate and pretty decent on the base baths. The Mariners also have a pretty good Day record on the Road themselves.

I played the White Sox cuz Tillman has been getting lit up lately and the White Sox have been very good at Home in Day games, if both pitchers go early, I like the White Sox bullpen better.

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday's Projections

WAS@ (-118 54.1%) (8.5) Gonzalez/Gsellman

Gsellman back in for the Mets, who I originally had projected when I posted then Tuesday, so projections are good again.

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 11:48 AM

I added some additions at the bottom of my SDQL post. Royals/Angels Over was canceled out and another one added or the Tigers SU and Over.

**FUqer** · 06-15-17, 08:45 PM

Friday Plays 6/16

»-Mariners -129
»-Rockies -105
»-Yankees -134

»-Mariners/Rangers Under 10 -108
»-Giants/Rockies Under 11 -108
_______________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-16-17, 01:54 AM

Thursday Results 6/15

»-Yankees -114
»-Mariners +115
»-White Sox +101
----------------------
1-2 for -1.13
_______________

Is there any question whether I have an extra inning curse now? Yanks bases loaded in 10th and only get one and and lose. 0-26 in them, that's a season changer and nothing I can do about bad luck like that. I even tried to live line the A's at +120 once it went to extras and Heritage was down and then the Yanks got some runners on and price left me, so there was no point in going elsewhere.

**FUqer** · 06-16-17, 02:36 AM

SDQL 6/16

ALL = Yesterday 5-2 (Total 298-236)
SU = Yesterday 1-0 (Total 163-122)
OU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 135-114)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Mets are 0-17 SU & RL as a home 140-plus dog vs a divisional opponent with more wins and it is not a series opener.

team = Mets and SG > 1 and H and 140 <= line and DIV and WP < o:WP and date >= 20090819

PLAY: The Nationals are 17-0 SU since Sep 06, 2015 as a favorite vs a lefty off a game as a favorite and after facing three straight righties.

team=Nationals and F and p:F and o:STL and po:STR and ppo:STR and pppo:STR and date>=20150906

FADE: The Red Sox (-30.4% ROI)

(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7

FADE: The Twins (19-44 -38.1% ROI)

H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1

PLAY: The Blue Jays (983-588 +11.8% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

------------

OU

UNDER: Giants/Rockies (38-21-3 +22.6% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

OVER: Both teams off a day rest this season. (56-28 +26.3% ROI)
(Marlins/Braves & Cubs/Pirates)

H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 113-66-7 OU +19.8% ROI this season.
(Marlins, Indians)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (116-80-15 +12.5% ROI)
(Royals, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Indians)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Nationals x2
Astros
Indians
Blue Jays

OU

Marlins/Braves Over x3
Indians/Twins Over x2
Nationals/Mets Over x2
Cubs/Pirates Over
Royals/Angels Over
Padres/Brewers Over
Cardinals/Orioles Over
Dodgers/Reds Over
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**FUqer** · 06-16-17, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/16

»-Mariners -129
»-Rockies -105
»-Yankees -134

»-Mariners/Rangers Under 10 -108
»-Giants/Rockies Under 11 -108
»-White Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 +107
»-Padres/Brewers Over 9.5 -118

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Added two more totals.

**FUqer** · 06-16-17, 04:05 AM

This Season

9.3 runs per game
6.5 walks per game
16.4 strikeouts per game
17.4 hits per game
2.5 home runs per game

2016 Season

8.9 runs per game
6.2 walks per game
16.1 strikeouts per game
17.4 hits per game
2.3 home runs per game

**FUqer** · 06-16-17, 04:18 AM

Trying to get ahead cuz I won't be around a lot this weekend.

Saturday's Projections

WAS@ (-153 60.5%) (8.4) Strasburg/Lugo
CLE@ (-174 63.5%) (10.7) Clevinger/Mejia (Game #1)
@LAA (-128 56.2%) (9.6) Junis/Meyer
LAD@ (-171 63.1%) (9.0) Ryu/Wojciechowski
@COL (-154 60.6%) (9.0) Cain/Freeland
@TOR (-170 62.3%) (7.8) Pelfrey/Stroman
CLE@ (-153 60.5%) (9.8) Merritt/Wilk (Game #2)
@ATL (-125 55.5%) (8.1) Locke/Garcia
@DET (-133 57.0%) (7.5) Archer/Fulmer
BOS@ (-116 53.7%) (8.0) Porcello/Paulino
@TEX (-124 55.3%) (9.4) Gallardo/Perez
@BAL (-102 50.6%) (8.7) Wainwright/Miley
@MIL (-145 59.2%) (9.0) Lament/Anderson
ARI@ (-127 55.6%) (8.5) Godley/Eickhoff
NYY@ (-140 58.3%) (8.8) Tanaka/Hahn
CHC@ (-115 53.5%) (7.8) Arrieta/Nova

**FUqer** · 06-17-17, 02:51 AM

Saturday Plays 6/17

»-Red Sox +108
»-Tigers +100

»-Royals/Angels Over 9 +102
___________________________
Yesterday = 2-5 = -3.79
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Bankroll = 971.50 / 2000.00
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**FUqer** · 06-17-17, 02:55 AM

SDQL 6/17

ALL = Yesterday 6-6 (Total 304-242)
SU = Yesterday 2-2 (Total 165-124)
OU = Yesterday 4-4 (Total 139-118)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Mets are 0-18 SU & RL as a home 140-plus dog vs a divisional opponent with more wins and it is not a series opener.

team = Mets and SG > 1 and H and 140 <= line and DIV and WP < o:WP and date >= 20090819

FADE: The White Sox are 0-24 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011

PLAY: The Orioles are 15-0 SU at home after a game as a home dog in which they allowed 12-plus hits.

team = Orioles and H and p:H and p

and po:hits>=12 and date >= 20130602

FADE: The Mariners (49-134 -35.3% ROI)

team=Mariners and po:hits>=12 and AD

PLAY: Rangers, Brewers, Angels (983-589 +11.8% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Tigers (536-370 +10.5% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

------------

OU

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 113-68-7 OU +19.8% ROI this season.
(White Sox, Nationals, Rays)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (121-84-15 +12.3% ROI)
(Athletics, Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers, Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Rangers x2
Nationals
Blue Jays
Orioles
Brewers
Angels
Tigers

OU

Nationals/Mets Over x3
White Sox/Blue Jays Over x2
Yankees/Athletics Over x2
Rays/Tigers Over
Padres/Brewers Over
Cardinals/Orioles Over
Cubs/Pirates Over
Giants/Rockies Over
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**Martinr** · 06-17-17, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

This Season

9.3 runs per game
6.5 walks per game
16.4 strikeouts per game
17.4 hits per game
2.5 home runs per game

2016 Season

8.9 runs per game
6.2 walks per game
16.1 strikeouts per game
17.4 hits per game
2.3 home runs per game

hi FUqer. Good job with this thread. I like the way you keep it neat and up to date.
I'm after some stats on errors (number of games with exactly 0, number of games with exactly 1, average number of per game) and I guess using an SDQL query would be an efficient way to get them. Could I trouble you to either run a query for me, or post the query I'd need to run it myself? I don't have any experience using the language but if you gave me the query I could run it. I guess the query would look something like "errors=0,year=2016", but I could be completely wrong.
Once I have the base query I can change the number of errors, and each year, to get the stats I need, but I just need someone to show me the correct code to start.

If you have the time to help me with this I'd very much appreciate it, if not no probs.
Cheers.

**FUqer** · 06-17-17, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Plays 6/17

»-Red Sox +108
»-Tigers +100
»-Indians RL +132 #1
»-Indians RL +127 #2

»-Royals/Angels Over 9 +102
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Added Indians RL both games. I was looking at RRL numbers and noticed the Twins are around +120 but +230 RRL, compared to Royals in Mariners in same range with RRL +170. The Padres may also be a system play if I'm still around then.

**FUqer** · 06-17-17, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Martinr

hi FUqer. Good job with this thread. I like the way you keep it neat and up to date.
I'm after some stats on errors (number of games with exactly 0, number of games with exactly 1, average number of per game) and I guess using an SDQL query would be an efficient way to get them. Could I trouble you to either run a query for me, or post the query I'd need to run it myself? I don't have any experience using the language but if you gave me the query I could run it. I guess the query would look something like "errors=0,year=2016", but I could be completely wrong.
Once I have the base query I can change the number of errors, and each year, to get the stats I need, but I just need someone to show me the correct code to start.

If you have the time to help me with this I'd very much appreciate it, if not no probs.
Cheers.

Thanks!

I think this is what your wanting. Looks like a decisive edge for Home team for ML and RL and of course the Under, if you can predict there will be no errors. Also try just typing in errors and hit enter.

H and errors = 0 and o:errors = 0 and season=2017

**FUqer** · 06-18-17, 03:16 AM

Saturday Results 6/17

L - »-Red Sox +108
L - »-Tigers +100
W - »-Indians RL +132 #1
W - »-Indians RL +127 #2

P - »-~~Royals/Angels Over 9~~ +102
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2-2-1 = +0.59
___________________________
Bankroll = 1001 / 2000

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