Reverse run lines are just greedy bro. I mean fish were +180 to win, why risk losing already fat odds trying for more? Totally understand the logic behind looking for high scoring games as those only type I play rl's on. Just don't think necessary when playing a bad team already getting decent odds, I mean they bad teams for a reason they tend to almost give away games they win which why they lose a lot in 1st place!!
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I agree that theyre a bit greedy. Lets check if theyre worth it though by some calculations. If we calculate the situation before the Marlins game the ML vs RL would have looked like this:
- RL 5-3, +5.82 units.
- ML 5-3, +3.25 (approximately).
After the Marlins game:
- RL 5-4, +4.82 units
- ML 6-3, +5.1 units (approximately).
So yes, the stats support the ML too slightly but long term they would probably be pretty equal. More winning days with the ML though which is fun and uplifting and supports the ML too. More possible games with just ML as then I could also add games with low lines too. Now Ive just looked at games with high lines to try to get the RL, which has worked well.
I think its safe to say that we should start doing ML instead of RL. I will give it a bit more thought but sure sounds like it to me. Thanks for the comment!Comment -
I just have to have a lot of things line up to be willing to play a rl and I'd assume it not nearly as likely with sizable dogs. Numbers very well could support your strategy I don't have a clue just seems overly ambitious to take a large dog and then also need them by more than a run! LolComment -
Probably is. Though I am so bad at capping that anything can happen with the teams that I actually end up playing
But yea, without looking at any stats, I would guess that favs are more likely to win more often with 2 runs or more compared to dogs (when comparing just the ratio of wins 2 or more vs 1 run, not comparing the actual amount of games they win). Hnece, dogs will end up winning more games with just a 1 run difference compared to the favs. And 1 run difference would kill my RL. Also, most of my fades will be dogs in any case, because I play with the obvious stats, and obvious stats being better is most often gonna make the team a fav.
So yea, ML it is I think.Comment -
Ok, I have learned a bit more again for my capping and making the pick based on the new awesome capping skills.
6/9:
- Dbacks are good at home, Padres suck on road. Overall record for Dbacks is good, for Padres is bad. Last 10 are pretty even. They do matter a little but Im still not convinced of their importance. Easy Dbacks.
So we fade our Dbacks pick and play Padres: ML +129, 1 unit.
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record: 5-4
BR: +4.82 units
Total BR: +5.02 unitsComment -
i know you're presuming high scoring games in your rl plays. have you checked if the totals have gone over in these games? If you are consistently right about scoring, that's a good angle also.Comment -
I havent followed if those games have gone over or not, they have been high scoring for sure, as I remember. I can check them for all the games actually, I probably should. Oh, I will do it after this post.
Can you explain the "thats a good angle also"? I mean, I assume that you mean that I should cap those games Over? Im asking because I am intrigued and do not fully undestand
Edit: Stats for Over/Under for the games I played (and assumed being high scoring):
Over 6
Under 3Comment -
Yea he saying that if the games you choosing for rl bets based off high scores and those games are in fact going over at a decent clip you may be onto something and have knack for playing overs.Comment -
Well I might as well just start betting over for those games that I fade. At least the ones that I would have bet RL previously and now bet ML. Today's game looking like an Over early too.Comment -
This game certainly went over. Padres will lose though. You guys could be right about me having something going on with the overs.Comment -
Yeah. the plays you were choosing you presumed they would be high scoring.That means even when your dog wins the fav probably scored quite a few runs also as they are expected to win the game. Definitely be curious to see if you can continue this knack for finding high scoring games over the total. This may be the new Scrivero system lol. But still very curious to see how the original system turns out as well. If nothing else, you are keeping things interesting.Comment -
You are probably/hopefully right about the high scoring game even if the fav wins instead of the team I fade. The 10 games are now 7 Overs and 3 Unders. And yea, this could very well be another famous Scrivero system Thanks for the interest
Sorry for not posting in 3 days, I was away organizing my moving to another country.
I will cap a game now. And fade it. And play Over for it.Comment -
You are probably/hopefully right about the high scoring game even if the fav wins instead of the team I play (after fading the fav/whoever). The 10 games are now 7 Overs and 3 Unders. And yea, this could very well be another famous Scrivero system Thanks for the interest
Sorry for not posting in 3 days, I was away organizing my moving to another country.
I will cap a game now. And fade it. And play Over for it.Comment -
I just posted my plays with all the text and then I noticed that I had to edit one word in the previous post and I did and the new post disappeared Ok, again!
6/11: Two plays today (not tilting, just happened to be 2 plays for today )
- Twins good at road, Giants bad at home. Last 10 are almost opposites. Overall records are almost opposite. A rather high scoring game but not very. Very good odds for the Twins too. I hence wouldnt play this Over, but I will, as Im starting to test the Over stuff now. So we cap the Twins.
So we fade our Twins pick and play Giants: ML -116, 1 unit.
We play it Over 8.5 -115, 1 unit.
- Red Sox good at home, Tigers bad on road. Last 10 pretty even but still edge for Red Sox. Overall records are the opposites of each other. A very high scoring game to come so this would be an Over. So we cap the Red Sox.
So we fade our Red Sox pick and play Tigers: ML +141, 1 unit.
We play it Over 11 +110, 1 unit.
Note: I will be again on a trip starting from tomorrow, back on Wednesday. So if you dont hear from me its that. I might have the time to update my BR.
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record: 5-5
BR: +3.82 units
Total BR: +4.02 unitsComment -
nice calls. u got a crappy line on the red sox total though.Comment -
Thaanks man! Yea I happened to get a bad line for it for sure.
So yea, both our fades hit easily. One Over hit and the other pushed.
We by the way also capped the Nationals at first but did not fade it because we would have never played them with -250 odds. The fade would have hit, the over not.
Approximate updated BR:
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record: 7-5
BR: +5.8 units
Over record: 1-0-1
BR: +1 unit
Total BR: +7.00 units
So I will be back after 3 days. And guys, as you see, I am terrible at capping. I might return to RL because of that. Might give more value. I will think about it. See you!Comment -
thanks! nice thread to readComment -
Ok, back from the trip.
I will update the exact stats later.
I will most likely start doing so that I play the fades with 0.5 units for ML and 0.5 units for -1.5 RL. That is because the RL seems to hit all the time for my fades but I still dont like the fact that a 1 run win would make me lose 1 unit with the RL instead of profiting 1.5 to 2 units with playing the ML instead. So now, if it ends with a 1 run win, I still make a profit. And if it ends wth 2 runs or more win, my profit is bigger than just with the ML. Makes sense to me at least. Also, now I can still keep those big favorites in my plays as I could play a team as RL for -130 even if its ML -260. So I can then fade those with good odds.
I probably wont bother posting the odds anymore, now that there will be more plays for one game than just one. As I will play ML and RL and Over.
Back later tonight! I see at least one good game for today and its not the early game today.Comment -
6/14:
- Nationals good at home, Braves bad on road. Last 10 pretty even but still edge for Nationals. Overall records are the opposites of each other. A high scoring game to come so this is an Over. So we cap the Nationals.
So we fade our Nationals pick and play Braves: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 9.5, 1 unit.
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record: 7-5
BR: +6.16 units
Over record: 1-0-1
BR: +0.87 units
Total BR: +7.23 units
By the way, as Ive been away the last 6 days out of the last 8, and been able to play just 2 games during that time, I have not learned anything new about capping so we are going with the same style as before, trusting that the favs with a much better record will win.Comment -
Im probably gonna jinx this but Braves lead 6-2 on Bottom of the 3rd. So capping is failing badly (who wouldve guessed ) meaning that our Fade is looking pretty good and Over is also looking good to say the least. Long way to go though still.
Anyways, Im liking this system (of course because it has started so well) and Im hoping it to continue well too. Maybe I could expand to other sports too? lol lets see where we are after a couple of more weeks first
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Capping failed so our fade won, both ML and RL. Over hit too. O/U record for out fades is now 9-3-1 our played Overs are 2-0-1. Thanks to kingdom (I think it was you) for noticing the trend.
Updating the separate records later today but:
Total BR: +10.32 units.Comment -
6/15:
- Rockies good at home, Giants really bad on road. Last 10 pretty are exact opposite, Rockies destroying it. Overall records are the opposites of each other., Rockies very good, Giants very bad. A very high scoring game to come so this would be an Over. Great odds for the Rockies despite them being so big of a favorite to win. So we cap the Rockies.
So we fade our Rockies pick and play Giants: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 11, 1 unit.
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record: 8-5
BR: +8.22 units
Over record: 2-0-1
BR: +1.90 units
Total BR: +10.32 units
Edit: I seem to be doing the same mistakes with my capping. But I dont seem to be able to improve it. Its like I keep repeating rookie mistakes. Its of course good for the BR but we want to get to Supercapping one day, not only fading stuff.
I will do 3 more games that are very close to being in my capping. They only miss by very small, but different things. I will try them with smaller bet sizing to see how they feel/work.
6/15 extra:
- Last 10 are almost opposites. Overall records are almost opposite. A rather high scoring game but not very. All in favor for the Red Sox. Difference to normal is that Red Sox is actually not good at road and Phillies is not that bad at home.
So we fade our Red Sox pick and play Phillies: ML 0.125 units, -1.5 RL 0.125 units.
We play it Over 8.5, 0.25 units.
- Nationals good at road. Last 10 are almost opposites. Nationals have a very good total and road record. Difference to normal is that Nationals have not been good the last 10, while Mets have. Also, Mets doesnt have that bad of a record home and in total.
So we fade our Nationals pick and play the Mets: ML 0.125 units, ML 0.125 units (RL was not available).
We play it Over 9, 0.25 units.
- Last 10 are almost opposites. Dodgers have a very good total and road record. Difference to normal is that Indians doesnt have that bad of a record home and in total.
So we fade our Dodgers pick and play Indians: ML 0.125 units, -1.5 RL 0.125 units.
We play it Over 9.5, 0.25 units.
Comment -
Just checking how the games are going as for once I have one early game:
- Dodgers-Indians is 4-8 on the Bot of the 6th. Well, we hit the Over again already. ML and RL looking good too. If the Extra games also seem to hit so well, we might just have to add those games too and fade them.
Smutbucket said on the previous page that I should just stop leaerning and just use my bad capping skills. I was first like, noo, I want to learn capping to and start the supercapping stuff. Im just wondering, if people who have bet on MLB for years have a hard time capping the games profitably, how could I do it? Just makes me think that maybe I should use what Smutbucket said and just cap the games like I do and fade them, and stop the learning. I would still try to cap the best that I can but I would allow some games in that seem to miss even if they are looking like pretty decent plays, which I then fade.
Anyways, lets just see how the games tonight go.Comment -
Too many games chief. Stick to the formula. if it ain't broke........Comment -
Agreed, I just wanted to test how well/badly the capping and the Overs do when I try to expand my capping a bit. That advice is good though, my biggest problem with the systems have been that I have started to make unnecessary changes.
I will start tracking how I do daily:
6/15:
- Overs: 3-1
- ML: 2-2
- RL: 1-3
6/15 BR: +0.37 units
Total BR: +10.69 units
I will see if I will keep updating the exaxt BR for each part of the system (Over, ML, RL). That is because it will start taking more time, which I do not like/have. It would be needed though, as now we are betting the ML and the RL for each game and like today we hit ML but missed the RL for one game. Hence we can not just mark it as a win or a loss or both as those would skew the stats. I will think about what to do. Any ideas on how to track them?
In any case, record for played Overs: 5-1-1.
Record for all overs for the fades: 12-4-1.Comment -
I will follow the different records like this:
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record (17 games, not 34): ML: 11-6 RL: 9-8
BR: +7.49 units
Over record: Overs we played: 5-1-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 12-4-1).
BR: +3.00 units
Total BR: +10.69 units
That looking pretty nice and simple? Let me know if there are any suggestions for improvement with the way I follow the records.Comment -
6/16:
- Rockies good at home, Giants really bad on road. Last 10 pretty are exact opposites, Rockies destroying it. Overall records are the opposites of each other., Rockies very good, Giants very bad. A very high scoring game to come so this is an Over. Great odds for the Rockies despite them being so big of a favorite to win. So we cap the Rockies.
So we fade our Rockies pick and play Giants: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 11, 1 unit.Comment -
6/16 record:
Over: 1-0
ML/RL: 0-1
6/16 total: -0.115 units
Overall records:
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record (18 games, not 36): ML: 11-7 RL: 9-9
BR: +6.49 units
Over record: Overs we played: 6-1-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 13-4-1).
BR: +3.88 units
Total BR: +10.57 unitsComment -
6/17:
- Rangers good at home. They have covered RL in all of their wins too. Mariners really bad away, with a bad overall record too. Rangers good last 10, Mariners, bad last 10. Good odds for Rangers. A high scoring game to come, so an easy Over.
So we fade our Rangers pick and play Mariners: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 11, 1 unit.
Amazing how well the Overs are doing. We shall see when that ends, hoopefully never but it surely cant last like that.Comment -
We capped right again, 3 nights in a row now. Not good. The favs have been killing it the last nights.
Luckily we hit the Over, again. Exact stats later, but:
Over record: Overs we played: 7-1-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 14-4-1).
Total BR: +10.4 units (aporoximately).
While I still agree that I should continue capping like I have been, I also think that it no longer corresponds with the reality of how I would actually cap a game after losing so many in a row. Of course its becoming reality again after getting 3 in a row right.
I did not keep constantly losing in my past by staying with certain way of capping. I adjusted, and normally with the wrong things, and kept losing. I think I must try to keep trying to improve my capping to keep capping wrong.
BUT, I should certainly keep the Overs the way they are even if I wouldnt fade those capped games.
CONCLUSION: Still going well, but I think I need to adjust. I will take a one day break and think about what to do.Comment -
Ok, one day break is over. We will return to adjusting with our capping BUT we will play the Overs with our static capping style.
But now, after the static capping style actually would have capped 3 games right in a row, I would imagine myself returning to it again now (if I had e.g. started to fade my cappings (hence fading my fades) because the cappings were doing so bad).
6/19:
- Rays good at home, ok overall record. Reds terrible at road, bad overall record. Rays 6-4 in last 10, Reds 1-9. A rather high scoring game to come so its an Over. This would be a Rays win rather easily.
So we fade our Rays pick and play the Reds: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 8.5, 1 unit.
6/17 record:
Over: 1-0
ML/RL: 0-1
6/17 total: -0.08 units
Overall records:
Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units
Fade Record (19 games, not 38): ML: 11-8 RL: 9-10
BR: +5.49 units
Over record: Overs we played: 7-1-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 14-4-1).
BR: +4.80 units
Total BR: +10.49 unitsComment -
Nice, we hit the ML and the RL. Of course we hit the Over too, thats just nuts.
BR: +13 units (approximately)
Exact stats and tonights plays and fades later.Comment
