The SSS (Scrivero Super System) money maker extravaganza

Scrivero · 05-29-17, 01:01 PM

Im trusting the Dodgers so much that Im throwing in an extra 0.5 units for:
- Cardinals RL -1.5, +180, 0.5 units.

Aye J Mac · 05-29-17, 01:02 PM

Your first time using this system?

Scrivero · 05-29-17, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Aye J Mac

Your first time using this system?

I think so. I cant be sure though as Ive had so many of them. But yea, I think I have never faded my own capping.

FUqer · 05-29-17, 07:02 PM

My best friend did that for NBA, he doesn't do any homework or nothing, so he bets on his perception alone and kept losing, so he started fading himself and begun winning. The books feed off perceptions.

Scrivero · 05-30-17, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

My best friend did that for NBA, he doesn't do any homework or nothing, so he bets on his perception alone and kept losing, so he started fading himself and begun winning. The books feed off perceptions.

Sounds like me. Lets hope I start winning too.

I lost the first game. I capped it right that is. Dont worry, that wont happen very often.

5/30:
- I have learned during the last few days that Rockies are really good and that Seattle is not. Their last 10 and home vs road results too point towards Rockies winning. A high scoring game to come, so it must be Rockies RL -1.5. Good odds too despite them being so probable to win this.

So we play: Seattle RL -1.5 +194, 1 unit.

Record: 0-1 -1.5 units.

Scrivero · 05-31-17, 01:11 AM

My horrible capping revealed itself. Seattle won 10-4 so we won too!

Record: 1-1
Current BR: +0.44 units

I expect myself to cap more games wrong than right for sure. So this system should be quite positive in money.

Scrivero · 05-31-17, 11:10 AM

5/31:
- Astros are great on the road, they've only lost 6 games all season. Twins have been quite frankly terrible at home. Last 10 games have Astros ahead by a mile. The odds are ok for ML but I think the real value should be on RL -1.5 because this should be a high scoring game. The line movement is also very much in favor of the Astros.

So we play: Twins RL -1.5, +238, 1 unit

Record: 1-1
Current BR: +0.44 units

Scrivero · 05-31-17, 02:36 PM

Damn, capping was too good today. Already 10-5 on the 7th. Gonna end something like 15-7. Lets see if I could cap another for tonight.

Scrivero · 05-31-17, 02:47 PM

5/31 number 2:
- Its true that Rangers have been struggling that last 10 games and its shown in their odds. Rays havent done so well either. Rangers have though been very good at home while Rays have not at road. High scoring game to come. Could go either way but the odds are so good for Rangers -1.5 RL that we have to take that one.

So we play: Rays RL -1.5 +121, 1 unit.

Scrivero · 06-01-17, 01:20 AM

Record: 2-2
BR: +0.6 units

So yea we did a bit too well capping the Astros but luckily we went wrong with the Rangers.

Scrivero · 06-01-17, 03:44 PM

So Im trying to learn in my capping like anyone else would. Even if I fade myself. So I will be trying to avoid the same mistakes again, even if the mistakes would lead to me winning as I fade my own capping.

6/1:
- Red Sox vs Orioles is almost identical to the yesterday's Ray's vs. Rangers. Orioles have been great at home but last 10 they are 2-8. Red Sox not very good at road but last 10 are 8-2. If we compare to yesterday, the Red Sox should win even more easily than Ray's yesterday. Ive learned from my mistake yesterday about the team with bad last 10 games suddenly starting to win again. High scoring game too, so should be easy Red Sox RL -1.5

So we play: Orioles RL -1.5 +216, 1 unit.

Record: 2-2
BR: +0.65 units

keel44 · 06-01-17, 06:50 PM

Your capping is incomplete to say the least. It is not you are a poor capper, you aren't really capping at all. You need to do more than what you are showing here.

Scrivero · 06-02-17, 05:11 AM

Originally posted by keel44

Your capping is incomplete to say the least. It is not you are a poor capper, you aren't really capping at all. You need to do more than what you are showing here.

I think it is safe to say that I am a poor capper. Especially in MLB. I have followed and bet the sport 7 weeks now. I know very little of the teams and players. I dont know what level of ERA etc is good and what not. I dont even look at ERA.

So I fade myself. I choose and cap the game in max 5 minutes. I only look at very clear factors. I think FUqer put it really well in a previous post about not doing the homework.

I try to get better at capping but its pretty safe to fade myself for a long time. If I actually get good at capping then I could actually play my own capping.

Scrivero · 06-02-17, 06:56 AM

By the way, we capped wrong so our fade won and we profited 2.16 units.

Record: 3-2
BR: +2.81 units

Scrivero · 06-03-17, 10:03 AM

6/3:
- Nationals are 8-2 in last 10. Athletics are 3-7. Athletics are pretty good at home but their record for the whole year is awful, so seemingly they are really bad and should start losing at home too. Nationals have a great record away and at home. High scoring game so we will play RL. Nationals have great odds despite being such a clear favorite.

So we fade our Nationals play and play: Athletics RL -1.5, 1 unit, +201.

Record: 3-2
BR: +2.81 units

Scrivero · 06-03-17, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by Scrivero

6/3:
- Nationals are 8-2 in last 10. Athletics are 3-7. Athletics are pretty good at home but their record for the whole year is awful, so seemingly they are really bad and should start losing at home too. Nationals have a great record away and at home. High scoring game so we will play RL. Nationals have great odds despite being such a clear favorite.

So we fade our Nationals play and play: Athletics RL -1.5, 1 unit, +201.

Record: 3-2
BR: +2.81 units

Our capping failed again so our fade won and we profited 2.01 units.

Record: 4-2
BR: +4.82 units

Tomatero · 06-03-17, 11:32 PM

Awesome!! Lets keep fading you 🍻

Scrivero · 06-03-17, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by Tomatero

Awesome!! Lets keep fading you 

Scrivero · 06-04-17, 11:02 AM

6/4:
- Astros have been amazing lately, and during the whole season too. Rangers, even if they ve been a better at home than otherwise, have a much much worse record than Astros. Astros, if I recall correctly, have an 8 or 9 game winning streak, and one shouldnt play against streaks. 2-8 for Rangers the last 10. High scoring game too so RL -1.5 is good value. Not sure why Astros have such good odds right now -122 ML even though they are a clear favorite. I surely cant miss this game.

So we fade our Astros pick and play Rangers: RL -1.5, +214, 1 unit.

Record: 4-2
BR: +4.82 units

Scrivero · 06-04-17, 12:46 PM

The more I look at this match, the more Im sure that my fade has no chance today. Astros so strong. But hey, thats me capping and Im a pretty bad capper. We shall see.

kingdom · 06-04-17, 12:49 PM

GL. I like this thread and reverse write ups. Scary with RL, but i hope you do well.

Scrivero · 06-04-17, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by kingdom

GL. I like this thread and reverse write ups. Scary with RL, but i hope you do well.

Thanks! Ya I do RL because I have been so off with my capping that the RL fades probably have the most value, at least so far theyve been the best choice. 4-2 for both ML and RL. Thanks man!

Tomatero · 06-04-17, 01:16 PM

Good luck 🍀 Amigo

Scrivero · 06-04-17, 01:21 PM

Thanks To!

Scrivero · 06-04-17, 03:15 PM

Normally a game is not over after 3 innings but this one is for sure. Astros dominate. I see that our previous capping gone right (but we losing the fade) was also Astros. Hmm, and the first game we lost was when we capped Dodgers right. What was in common with these plays? Basically the fact that I "knew too much" about the teams, how Dodgers play against righties, how well Astros have played etc. Sometimes its hard to do this reverse stuff. I want to cap a game wrong even if I try my hardest to cap it right. SOmetimes just some games feel so certain. Maybe I have to start actually playing (or not playing or fading) the games that actually feel almost too good to be true like the Astros' odds today.

Tomatero · 06-04-17, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by Scrivero

Normally a game is not over after 3 innings but this one is for sure. Astros dominate. I see that our previous capping gone right (but we losing the fade) was also Astros. Hmm, and the first game we lost was when we capped Dodgers right. What was in common with these plays? Basically the fact that I "knew too much" about the teams, how Dodgers play against righties, how well Astros have played etc. Sometimes its hard to do this reverse stuff. I want to cap a game wrong even if I try my hardest to cap it right. SOmetimes just some games feel so certain. Maybe I have to start actually playing (or not playing or fading) the games that actually feel almost too good to be true like the Astros' odds today.

Maybe odds astros just bc they were away.

Scrivero · 06-04-17, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by Tomatero

Maybe odds astros just bc they were away.

Ya probably. But yea Astros won so we lost. Lets continue tonight! I will be capping the teams that I dont know anything about. Seems to give the best results.

Record: 4-3
BR: +3.82 units

Scrivero · 06-05-17, 01:30 PM

Im gonna try the supercapping too. Basically meaning that if I have a huge feeling about a team winning, I will play it RL -1.5. Astros for today. I might follow this capping progress or not.

No good capping possibilities for today though otherwise so wont be fading anything either.

Scrivero · 06-05-17, 10:56 PM

Astros won RL. Nice.

Supercapping record: 1-0
BR: +1.2 units

Fade Record: 4-3
BR: +3.82 units

Total BR: +5.02 units

Scrivero · 06-06-17, 10:23 AM

Supercapping: Astros RL -1.5, +113, 1 unit.

Fading:
- I have previously capped teams to win if they have had a bad away record but a very good overall record. I have figured that they should be better than their away record shows. In the same fashion I have thought that a team with a bad overall record but an ok home record is worse than what their home record shows because of the overall record. Those cappings have failed (and I have won money because I have faded those picks) so I think I must learn from that. I would learn from it if I was actually playing my capping, so I must try to learn it in this fading enviroment too.
- So with the new learning: Tigers are good at home, Angels are bad on road. Both have a similar overall record. Last 10 is 6-4 for Tigers and 4-6 for Angels. A high scoring match to come. I am, with the above thoughts in mind, capping Tigers to win RL -1.5.

So we fade our Tigers pick and play Angelts: RL -1.5, +207, 1 unit.

Edit. Just as info, I wouldnt have played this game at all if I didnt have my new "learning". That is because the teams' overall record would have been too equal.

Supercapping record: 1-0
BR: +1.2 units

Fade Record: 4-3
BR: +3.82 units

Total BR: +5.02 units

Scrivero · 06-07-17, 01:05 AM

Supercapping play lost as Astros finally lost. There wont be many supercapping plays in the future before I actually get good at capping.

And about being good at capping... Im still not so our fade won again yesterday with Angels winning!

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record: 5-3
BR: +5.82 units

Total BR: +6.02 units

Scrivero · 06-07-17, 11:42 AM

So with failing with my capping so much (which has brought us money as we fade our capping), I think its time to learn more. So what Ive learned now is that the last 10 games dont seem to matter. So with that, and what I learned about the good home team vs bad road team, here is today's play:

6/7:
- Cubs have been awesome at home while Marlins have sucked on road. Overall records are far away from each other too. A high scoring game to come so easy RL -1.5 again. Easy win for Cubs. And this even with Marlins being 7-3 in last 10. As I mentioned above, we have learned that the last 10 games dont seem to matter.

So we fade our Cubs pick and play Marlins: RL -1.5, +295, 1 unit.

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record: 5-3
BR: +5.82 units

Total BR: +6.02 units

Smutbucket · 06-07-17, 04:24 PM

If your just going to fade what youve already learned (which has been bad) which will result in good picks then why continue to re-adjust and adapt. Use the bad handicapping techniques and fade them . That being said I think last 10 games (recent batting trends) are very important and I like what you got going here.....I usually squarely look into the card at first before delving into the numbers and Im sure if I fade my original square thoughts they would be killing it these season.

Scrivero · 06-07-17, 11:58 PM

Thanks for the comments! I think I have to keep learning to keep capping wrong. That is because even bad cappers adjust their plays wuth what theyve learned and they still keep losing. I understand your point but it would not be me capping the games if I would ignore the things I see. I think the biggest mistake bad cappers do is that they keep changing their mind about what is important. They are not consistent. Thats what I do as well.

My long term goal is also to actually start playing my picks. I dont want to fade myself forever.

I appreciate your thoughts though and will learn from them too and will see if the approach I have is what I want to keep or not. OR if I should have two or three different ways to cap. First would be the original where I wouldnt learn or change anything. The second would be the current one with learning. The third one would be the supercapping where I actually trust my plays.

We capped wrong again yesterday. Too bad Marlins only won by 1. That was the first game to hit the ML fade but miss the RL fade so we keep doing the RL fade with these high scoring games. We will do ML fades with low scoring ones.

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record: 5-4
BR: +4.82 units

Total BR: +5.02 units