What am I missing? (MLB writeup)
Every once in awhile, you see a line you just CANNOT figure out! You see the line, and double check the injuries and lineups. Seeing no mistakes, you fire away.
Some of my pro players have a "lock board". It doesn't mean it's a guaranteed win, but in our best estimate, it has an EV of 10% or more, which is about a 57% clip at -110 lines.
Boston -115 (Beckett/Swarzak)
Boston has the better batters.
Boston has the better bullpen.
The reason this line is skewed: Swarzak had a very good first outting. In his first start, he pitched 7 innings with 5 hits, 3 KOs, 2 BBs and no earned runs. Is he a great pitcher? No, and I call bullshit.
Bill James doesn't even rate him as a pitcher. Baseball prospectus projects that he'll have a whip of 1.61.
Will he have a forward Whip of 1.2? or 1.6? If I project his Whip at 1.2 against an average offense, Boston is still a very strong play. But I don't think he's the smack, and Boston at -115 is a steal.
Warning though - I lose almost half my bets. I am personally risking 2% on this (in my old age, I rarely risk more than 1% on an NFL, NBA or MLB play).
Some of my pro players have a "lock board". It doesn't mean it's a guaranteed win, but in our best estimate, it has an EV of 10% or more, which is about a 57% clip at -110 lines.
Boston -115 (Beckett/Swarzak)
Boston has the better batters.
Boston has the better bullpen.
The reason this line is skewed: Swarzak had a very good first outting. In his first start, he pitched 7 innings with 5 hits, 3 KOs, 2 BBs and no earned runs. Is he a great pitcher? No, and I call bullshit.
Bill James doesn't even rate him as a pitcher. Baseball prospectus projects that he'll have a whip of 1.61.
Will he have a forward Whip of 1.2? or 1.6? If I project his Whip at 1.2 against an average offense, Boston is still a very strong play. But I don't think he's the smack, and Boston at -115 is a steal.
Warning though - I lose almost half my bets. I am personally risking 2% on this (in my old age, I rarely risk more than 1% on an NFL, NBA or MLB play).